We need to make the running backs happy

[tired]

There is already rumblings about one going to transfer already. I hope they all get there fill next 2 or 3 games.

[furls]

You have to expect that. The Bucks are insanely deep at RB and there aren't going to be enough carries to go around. My greatest fear is that we will not the Hall and Berry enough of a shot to determine if those are the guys we want next year (and then the wrong guy transfers). I hope that Berry or Hall does enough to distinguish himself from the other to ensure that he steps up to replace Saine. If we lose one of those guys, I actually think it is a good thing, as long as it is the right one (opens up a scholarship) and depth will not be a concern until at least 2015.

2010 Backs:
Saine Sr.
Herron Jr.
Hall So.
Berry RFR
Hyde FR (RFR?)
Smith (probably RS this year)

2011
Herron Sr.
Hall Jr.
Berry So.
Hyde So./RFR
Smith RFR

Even if Hall or Berry transfers we still have 2 big backs (Hyde and Smith) and 2 small backs (Herron and Hall/Berry).

2012
Hall Sr./Berry Jr.
Hyde Jr./So.
Smith So.
Warren Ball (2012 commit)
Bri'onte Dunn (probable 2012 commit)
Rushel Shell (possible 2012 Commit)

I love the 2012 backs the Bucks are after. Ball is a great get and most of the recruiting afficienado's listed him as the #1 Back in the state coming into this year.

Brio'nte Dunn reopened that discussion by rushing for ~830 yards, yes 830 yards, in his first three games for a suspect Glen Oak team. He put over 300yards on traditional powerhouse Massillon. He is a big back and he has shown significant growth in his game each year. His senior year may be ridiculous.

Rushel Shell is hyped to all hell right now. He is on scout's first list of 5 stars and may end up being the #1 back in the country. He is out of OSU's new recruiting rich hunting ground, Western Pa. He loves Terrelle Pryor, and although he will never play him, he wants to walk his footsteps and has reached out to OSU and list OSU as his leader. I don't expect this to be a case where he has OSU leading early and then his recruiting picks up and he finds a belle at the ball. EVERYONE is recruiting this kid already and he is still and OSU lean.

[JCoz]

Only one I can think of that it could be true would be Berry, but I'm just not really buying that.

But even in the case of that happening (which if it isn't this year it WILL be next year or the year after) So be it.

Dunn was offered and Ball has committed. Shell has interest as well, and all three of those backs are probably more talented than every one we have now with the exception of Smith.

So if one is whining (which i think is crazy unless its outside of Berry/Hall/Hyde)it's surprising because of the ST's play of Berry and Hall, really I think most backs would be happy making impacts in that role to subsidize the lack of carries.

Either way, that is what these next two games are for, we will see 35-40 Hall/Berry carries in the next two games IMO.

[jb]

There is already rumblings about one going to transfer already. I hope they all get there fill next 2 or 3 games.

I'd say they need to make us happy.

Very mediocre the past couple seasons.

Let them go to the MAC.

[jb]

Furls, what HS does Shell play for?

[JCoz]

Furls, what HS does Shell play for?

Aliquippa, Pennsylvania
Hopewell

[jb]

Furls, what HS does Shell play for?

Aliquippa, Pennsylvania
Hopewell

Paul Puzlusny's school and they also graduated some other RB who had some success at Pitt and in the NFl for Dallas in th e70's. Tony something or other.

Thanks. I live under an hour away. I may take in a game.

[furls]

Shell plays for Hopewell, Tony Dorsett's HS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5Q6CkgS3KA, this one is Shell going for 350 yards against West Alleghany.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XK1XCKAc ... re=related, Shell showing some power.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBqDlaQ1 ... re=related

http://pittsburgh.scout.com/a.z?s=141&p ... id=4095723
/rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/football/recruiting/player-Rushel-Shell-89930

FWIW, Pittsburgh recruitniks are conceding that Shell will most likely be a Buckeye if they come after him hard. So far, the Bucks have not been ridiculously active with the '12 class

[JCoz]

There is already rumblings about one going to transfer already. I hope they all get there fill next 2 or 3 games.

I'd say they need to make us happy.

Very mediocre the past couple seasons.

Let them go to the MAC.

Great response, I meant as much, but you were much more efficient with your delivery, lol.

[tired]

A Buckeye offered Dunn has over 1000 yrds. in 4 games. He had 249 yards and 2 touchdowns tonight. GlenOak beat Jackson 28-9. Think this is Ohios 2010 Mr. Football? This running back is a must get !!!

[furls]

He actually has nearly 1100 yards so far this season (in 4 games). I have never seen anything like it. Warren Ball, out of DeSales (already committed for 2012), was largely considered the best back in Ohio in this class, Dunn was kind of a 1B or 2. Dunn is really showing some growth that I think is surprising a lot of people. He is now clearly the #1 back in OH and probably the #1 player in Ohio. He is flying largely under the RADAR nationally right now, which is a good thing, but the accolades will be coming soon. He is starting to get Beanie Wells comparisons.

I am going to give him Clarrett comparisons (minus the drama). The kid is fast, like Beanie, but he is just fucking tough like MoC. Beanie was never a guy that could carry the ball 30 times a week (Eddie George style). Dunn will. Should the Bucks land Dunn (and I think they will) the RB battle in 2012/2013 between Dunn and Rod Smith may be epic.

[tired]

Aw man, Furls, I'll be staying tuned !!!

[jb]

A Buckeye offered Dunn has over 1000 yrds. in 4 games. He had 249 yards and 2 touchdowns tonight. GlenOak beat Jackson 28-9. Think this is Ohios 2010 Mr. Football? This running back is a must get !!!

Time to spend a friday eating some Hartville Kitchen chicken & take in a game.

[danwismar]

Dunn has received his OSU offer as of this past weekend...so he and Shell both hold offers, and Ball is already committed.

---

And speaking of OSU running backs, heard a report today from Marcus Hartman of BSB that Saine has gotten banged up in practice this week, and may not play against EMU.

It's obviously an opportunity for Hall and Berry to make their marks, even though the level of the competition will possibly put an asterisk next to whatever they accomplish Saturday.

[tired]

Saweet !!! Thanks wiz !!! I've read where Dunn is a pretty good linebacker as well.

[furls]

Dunn is a running back. I am sure that we may have some folks that might want to try to roll him to LB, but he will best serve this team as a RB. I think the Bucks were all set with offering Ball and Shell until Dunn elevated his game this year. The first day the Bucks could offer was 1 Sep (and even that is a bit sketchy and unofficial). THe only RB the Bucks did not offer Dunn on 1 Sept, he got his offer last week based solely on a combination of his play last year and his insane development this year.

Coming into this season most people had Ball significantly ahead of Dunn, I would say that is now reversed. Dunn is shredding OHSAA football like no one else that I can think of. He has 1074 yards in 4 games against pretty decent competition. The kid is specially talented, durable, a good student and is supposed to be a real good kid. BTW, there are multiple, multiple rumors from sources very close to Dunn that he is all Buckeye.

Here is a link to a nice video of Dunn scorching Massilon:
http://recruiting.scout.com/2/1002972.html
Watch the run that starts at 4:40. It is fucking amazing.


So at that point with Ball and Dunn committed do you pull Rushel Shell's offer? What are you going to do with 3 excellent RBs (oh, yeah last year's top guy Rod Smith is going to end up with a RS this year).

[JCoz]

So at that point with Ball and Dunn committed do you pull Rushel Shell's offer? What are you going to do with 3 excellent RBs (oh, yeah last year's top guy Rod Smith is going to end up with a RS this year).

I'm not sure he redshirts quite yet.

For one I don't believe in redshirting a RB period unless it is purely because he isn't needed, and I don't know if that will be the case all year. EDIT: Saine is not out this week. Confirmed by Tres today, apologies for the false alarm.

That's one down with Hyde just coming back from his injury.

I also think that with Ball and Dunn in the fold there is seriously no need whatsoever to RS Smith. So if he's looked as good as I thought he would and as good as Tress has said, I don't know that Smith is SURE to sit the whole season....

It will be interesting to see if Hyde get some reps this week and how he looks doing it...

[furls]

I think the smart money is on him RSing. Remember that Hyde, who is now finally ready to return, looked great this spring and fall. Hall and Berry are still there at #3 and #4, the injury to Saine just makes the Buckeyes 4 deep at the TB position without RS. He really is not needed this year, doesn't make any sense to waste the year of eligibility just to have a 6th option at TB.

I am not sure where Smith ends up on the depth chart if they were to put him in it. Right now, based on potential and our upside down depth chart. I am not sure who the answer is at RB, but I know for sure it is not BS as Boom Herron has proven to be better. I sincerely hope it is not Boom Herron because that implies that we have wasted 4 scholarships on Hall, Berry, Smith, and Hyde since none of them are able to displace a guy that is a middle of the run B10 back at best.

I am really hoping that someone emerges in this EMU game with a performance that is so amazing that you cannot possibly put the guy on the bench. Someday we are going to have to run the ball in order to win (what if Pryor gets injured or something like that), and right now I am not sure that I like our running game against Nebraska or Alabama.

[JCoz]

Furls I agree, I haven't seen anything of Hyde yet, so I'm hoping to be blown away. Honestly I don't get too attached once they get to OSU, I just want what you want - One of Hall, Berry, Hyde or Smith to just come in and crush it.

I just really don't believe in red shirting RB's, not with those two coming next season especially. Not with Saine and Boom as 1 and 1a.

[furls]

Dude, we are eye to eye on that one. If Boom and Zoom are the best we got, then that means we wasted 4 schollies on the rest of the backs. To his credit Boom is surprisingly good, if he was backing up Chris Wells (or MoC, or Robert Smith, or Eddie George or 1/2 the starting backs in the Big Ten right now), I would love our backfield. It is weird to me that THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY'S starting RB is probably about the 6th or so best one in the conference.

[danwismar]

It is weird to me that THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY'S starting RB is probably about the 6th or so best one in the conference.

Truly.

Maybe Tressel just loves him because he has never lost a fumble in his 4-year OSU career. I mean, I probably just jinxed the shit out of him, but that IS pretty amazing.

[furls]

It is weird to me that THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY'S starting RB is probably about the 6th or so best one in the conference.

Truly.

Maybe Tressel just loves him because he has never lost a fumble in his 4-year OSU career. I mean, I probably just jinxed the shit out of him, but that IS pretty amazing.

Nice Job, now there is no way the Bucks are going to win this EMU game. Saine is going to have 6 touches and somehow fumble the ball 7 times because of this little comment. In all seriousness, I know that I am a bit harsh on BS right now, but I just cannot believe that this is the best back that we have. In a rebuilding year it makes sense, if he were an underclassman and you were still trying to get a handle on his potential that makes sense, in a year when you are expecting to play in the NCG? I really can't believe with 6 scholarship backs this is the best one, with the most immediate upside, on the team.

[danwismar]

I know that I am a bit harsh on BS right now, but I just cannot believe that this is the best back that we have. In a rebuilding year it makes sense, if he were an underclassman and you were still trying to get a handle on his potential that makes sense, in a year when you are expecting to play in the NCG? I really can't believe with 6 scholarship backs this is the best one, with the most immediate upside, on the team.

I have absolutely no argument with you on this point, Furls. I was just commenting on how Saine represents the perfect Tresselball tailback. First, no fumbles. We can always punt.

[JCoz]

I know that I am a bit harsh on BS right now, but I just cannot believe that this is the best back that we have. In a rebuilding year it makes sense, if he were an underclassman and you were still trying to get a handle on his potential that makes sense, in a year when you are expecting to play in the NCG? I really can't believe with 6 scholarship backs this is the best one, with the most immediate upside, on the team.

I have absolutely no argument with you on this point, Furls. I was just commenting on how Saine represents the perfect Tresselball tailback. First, no fumbles. We can always punt.

Sounds right but then, how did Mo C keep his job after the Cinci game in 02? Or maybe it was NW, can't remember which one he had 3 fumbles in early.....

Mo C vs Ross and Hall.....clearly there is a cutoff point where experience and even turnovers to a point will not stop a great talent at RB from taking and keeping the Job.

Someone needs to grab this thing by Horns. To me even with the incumbents it's there for the taking if its the right back.

[furls]

it is clearly a function of the talent "delta" (difference in talent) divided by some reliability factor. If that is greater than some threshold, you run with the young guy. If it is not, then you run with the experienced guy. Here is my little equation:

(Talent of Young back - Talent of Brandon Saine)/(Reliability of BS - Reliability of young back) = X

The more talented the young back is the bigger X is.
The more reliable the young back is the bigger X is.

I will give you that BS's reliability (which would be a function of blocking, fumbling, and consistency on each carry) is pretty high, but what is alarming to me is that we don't have any guys whose talent is that much better than Saine's to overcome his reliability. I would argue that running backs in particular do not get more talented, they do get more reliable which is what makes their net value to the team increase with seniority.

Part of this has to be that Saine is a senior and you can't really take a senior captain's job (unless he is Todd Boeckman), but damn, at what price do you assign to seniority? I have a hard time believing that we struck out on Hyde, Smith, Hall, and Berry.

[JCoz]

Also Size matters, I think Hyde and Smith would have the edge in unseating the current starters, maybe that is already factored into the talent portion of the equation though.....

[danwismar]

I have to take back the statement I made about Saine never fumbling.

I figured I needed to be sure before I made any such statement in an article, so I did some research. (They don't make it easy to find this stuff...you have to go through individual game summaries play-by play)

Saine lost a fumble in the NMSU game last year. I think that was the first one of his career. I didn't look any farther back since I had already disproved my point. So that "X" reliability factor just came down a little bit.

[danwismar]

Sounds right but then, how did Mo C keep his job after the Cinci game in 02? Or maybe it was NW, can't remember which one he had 3 fumbles in early.....

The guy I remember who had lots of fumble problems in the early going was Eddie George, who had two or three fumbles in a game against, I believe, Illinois...one down by the goal line that ended up being returned like 98 yards for a score, IIRC. Can't remember for sure, but it might have cost OSU the game...help me out here guys...I'm too lazy to look it up.

[JCoz]

I have to take back the statement I made about Saine never fumbling.

I figured I needed to be sure before I made any such statement in an article, so I did some research. (They don't make it easy to find this stuff...you have to go through individual game summaries play-by play)

Saine lost a fumble in the NMSU game last year. I think that was the first one of his career. I didn't look any farther back since I had already disproved my point. So that "X" reliability factor just came down a little bit.

http://www.sgsosu.net/osu/football.html

Just for limited use, but that is season and game-by-game stats from 01-10

http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/fls/17300/stats/football/2007/indgbg.htm

This is from 07-10, I don't even know exactly how to get there on the site, I just change the year in the address bar, but this will get you your fumbles.

Saine 2 fumbles, one lost both in 09, none in 07-08.

EDIT: NM, here is the link on the site for point and click....

http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=17300&ATCLID=1060504

[furls]

I don't know about you guys, but I am willing to concede the point that Saine never fumbles and is great at maintaining possession of the ball. What I don't like about Saine, primarily is there is no consistency in his carries. He is the opposite of Emmit Smith; Smith never had carries greater than 20 yards, but he still averaged ~4.5ypc for his NFL carreer. He was able to make 3-4 yards every time he touched the ball with the occassional 7.

Saine goes 50, 50, 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 in order to average 6 ypc. The frustrating part is that there are yards to be had on all those 0's.

[JCoz]

I don't know about you guys, but I am willing to concede the point that Saine never fumbles and is great at maintaining possession of the ball. What I don't like about Saine, primarily is there is no consistency in his carries. He is the opposite of Emmit Smith; Smith never had carries greater than 20 yards, but he still averaged ~4.5ypc for his NFL carreer. He was able to make 3-4 yards every time he touched the ball with the occassional 7.

Saine goes 50, 50, 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0 in order to average 6 ypc. The frustrating part is that there are yards to be had on all those 0's.

It's because Saine never had good instincts as a runner. You really can't learn vision, maybe you could learn to set up your blocks a little, but that's it IMO.

He has great straight line speed, fantastic hands both carrying the ball and catching it, and I guess that gives him some room, but comparatively, had he extensively carried the ball with beanie's Olines, you'd have gotten 1/4 of the production.

Someone said he would have thrived as an option back, and I can see where they are coming from.

[peeker643]

This is what Furls wrote that should be the opening and closing salvo on Brandon Saine:

Brandon Saine holds the WHAC record for the 40 yard dash (4.29) and the Ohio High School Record for the 100m at 10.31. Unfortunately it takes him 4.37s to cross the line of scrimmage.

That's really all you need.

Some kids have the physical ability and the instincts to play the running back position up to the standards of OSU backs of the last 75 years. Brandon Saine is blocking the path of that guy at this point.

[JCoz]

This is what Furls wrote that should be the opening and closing salvo on Brandon Saine:

Brandon Saine holds the WHAC record for the 40 yard dash (4.29) and the Ohio High School Record for the 100m at 10.31. Unfortunately it takes him 4.37s to cross the line of scrimmage.

That's really all you need.

Some kids have the physical ability and the instincts to play the running back position up to the standards of OSU backs of the last 75 years. Brandon Saine is blocking the path of that guy at this point.

Right, but you can get by as a RB pretty well with lot less ability than Saine has if you have good instincts as runner.

The opposite? Not so much.

[furls]

For those that keep track of such things, and I know lots of us do...

If you take Saine's 2 big carries against marshall out, he is averaging 2.6ypc.

That is kind of sucky, but I get it, those 40 yard runs are the only real thing he brings to the table in with the ball in his hands. What is pretty sucky is this:

Saine only has 4 carries this year of 7 or greater yards. 4/33, 12% of his runs go for more than 7 yards. He is like me hitting a driver. I hit about 12% of fairways with my driver, granted when I get the Fusion rocking I will hit the ball 300+ (which direction is anyone's guess but the ball is going far). That said, I hit a 2 iron off a low tee that is so beautiful that it makes Jesus cry. 250ish yards, straight and on the fairway ~70% of the time. Five years ago, I learned that hitting the ball from the fairway is way better than hitting it from the woods 70 yards further up. I still carry the driver in my bag, it is fun to look at and every once in a while. If I am feeling frisky on an open hole or maybe if I am gonna try to cut off a dog leg, I'll pull it out, but in the end my driver is novelty, just like Brandon Saine.

Here are some more stats for you: 24/33 runs are for less than 3 yards. 9/33 are for negative yardage or no gain. So in short, BS is as likely to get stopped for no gain (or a loss) than he is to gain more than 3 yards.

[FUDU]

Good point Furls, I've had th is in the back of my mind all season but personally wanted to see Saine get his legit chance as the main man, while healthy. If we see somebody else impress this weekend I think it would be time to divide up the carries more going forward. I really want to see some Hall/Berry this week.

[motherscratcher]

Well, then it's simple. Why don't they just put in Saine for the runs where he goes 40 yards? Then they could put someone else in on the runs where he'd just get 3 yards or less.

See? Easy.

[peeker643]

Well, then it's simple. Why don't they just put in Saine for the runs where he goes 40 yards? Then they could put someone else in on the runs where he'd just get 3 yards or less.

See? Easy.

[danwismar]

I think the EMU game preview Friday will reflect this discussion pretty accurately. It will almost seem like it was being written as this thread was being compiled. Uncanny.

[JCoz]

Now, I'm not going to make excuses for our RB's as I think they have no maximized what the Oline was able to give them regardless of the stacked boxes we've been facing, however that does not make this breakdown any less valid.

Just another great offering from Ross Fulton IMO.

Check it

http://www.alongtheolentangy.com/2010/9/21/1702051/the-ohio-state-run-game-and-run

The Nash Equilibrium applied to football and in particular, Ohio State circa 09 and 10....I love this stuff personally.

[tired]

Sounds right but then, how did Mo C keep his job after the Cinci game in 02? Or maybe it was NW, can't remember which one he had 3 fumbles in early.....

The guy I remember who had lots of fumble problems in the early going was Eddie George, who had two or three fumbles in a game against, I believe, Illinois...one down by the goal line that ended up being returned like 98 yards for a score, IIRC. Can't remember for sure, but it might have cost OSU the game...help me out here guys...I'm too lazy to look it up.

Spot on wiz. If I remember right he was a freshman that year.

[tired]

A Buckeye offered Dunn has over 1000 yrds. in 4 games. He had 249 yards and 2 touchdowns tonight. GlenOak beat Jackson 28-9. Think this is Ohios 2010 Mr. Football? This running back is a must get !!!

Time to spend a friday eating some Hartville Kitchen chicken & take in a game.

Fitch @ GlenOak tonight.

Bri'onte Dunn is obviously the main attraction.

But I'm also looking forward to seeing who is the better safety, DeShawn Hall or Will Malone.

[furls]

I think the EMU game preview Friday will reflect this discussion pretty accurately. It will almost seem like it was being written as this thread was being compiled. Uncanny.

Yeah, this thread destroyed my "Obvious Observations and Overreactions" for this week. I had a whole statistical write up including Standard deviations for each of our RBs. FWIW:

Saine's numbers: 4.8ypc, 2.6ypc if you throw out top and bottom 10%, Standard deviation 10.4, 4.8 if you throw out his top and bottom 10%.

Boom's Numbers: 4.6ypc, 4.3ypc if you throw out top and bottom 10%, standard deviation of 4.6, 3.8 if you throw out the top and bottom 10%.

Kind of mathematically quantifies the consistency of each RB and screams, that Boom Herron is the better of the two both in average and consistency.

[tired]

Dunn had 39 carries for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns, unofficially.Not bad going against 9 and 10 in the box and everyone in the stadium knowing who is getting the ball. Dunn was playing through a sprained ankle.

[tired]

Breaking News !!! Dunn = Buckeye ! Per scout.

[tired]

There's a buzz going around that a running back with the last name of shell will be getting an offer from Tress joining Dunn and Ball. Running Back U here we come.

[furls]

Yeah, I had been posting on Shell for a while. He looks like a pretty excellent back as well. I have no idea what we could do with all of them, but you really can't turn kids like Shell down. The kid likes the Bucks a lot and is probably going to list out as a top 25 player in the nation.