NCAAF Week 1

[skatingtripods]

Never too early to fire this thread up for the week, especially with several Thursday games and a couple Friday tilts.

Early on, I like Minnesota-MTSU U49 and Arizona -14.5 at Toledo.

MTSU's starting QB was suspended for violation of NCAA rules and Minnesota has a RB by committee going. Neither team has a great defense, but I expect lots of uncertainty on offense.

Toledo blows, Arizona returns almost all their starters on offense. This one should be a 49-14 type pasting.

Still looking through the Saturday lines. It's tough with all the moving parts and wondering who will run up the score on their lesser foes.


Looking forward to Pipe's column, if he's still doing it.

[leadpipe]

Column will begin in two weeks, to coencide with the NFL week one. Would start it earlier with just college, but I will be out of town much of the time leading up to week one. I'll posts some picks on here in the mean time.

An interesting week one note from a Lead Man source in Vegas, Vegas is sweating one early as it seems like a TON of sharp money (and just about all monies on this game were of the early, sharp variety) steamed the Northwestern line fom an opening of 2, all the way to 5.5. All the heavy hitters pounced on NW early and often, and the books couldn't bump the line fast enough to keep up with the action. Vandy's only returning offensive lineman was injured pre-season, but it seems the sharps saw much more than this.

[skatingtripods]

Oddsmaker has it at NW -5 right now. They have to see something else to dislike about Vandy with NW sending out a redshirt junior at QB. Vandy's defense must be very suspect also.

[skatingtripods]

EW, you were usually all over this thread last year. Any thoughts?

That Arizona-Toledo line keeps moving. Saw it at AZ -14.5 yesterday, up to -15.5 today.

[swerb]

Games I am playing this week ...

Thursday

Middle Tennessee St -3.5
Utah -3
No Illinois +4.5

Saturday

Notre Dame -11
Michigan -3
Louisville +3
Oklahoma -33.5
Nebraska -34.5
Troy -14
Northwestern -4.5
TCU -13.5
Fresno St -2.5

Monday

Maryland +6

[Action Boy]

I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.

[swerb]

I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.

Pitt - first time starter at QB, young inexperienced OL ... going to play on the road, in altitude, before whats gonna be a sold out raucous crowd.

That one on the tube tonight? Interesting matchup.

[JCoz]

I'm probably going to put this in to get my feet wet, I'm going low dollar money line parlays this year, mostly for fun, last season I got my balls crushed, losing an entire years bankroll in 2 weeks.

It was unbelievable, never done worse. It would be to do any worse.

And the real mess? it was single games. It was a slaughter. I got cute and put way too much in play at once, but I figured worst case based on past history would be a couple games under .500..

Wrong.... Wrong.

3rd week I 3-team parlayed the remainder (<15% of the starting roll) to either get back on track or pack it in for the year.

I packed it in. At least I was true to my word and did in fact pack it in for the rest of the year.

Anyways, here's where I'm going week 1:

VT, Uconn, and LSU moneyline.

40 to win 233.

[jjgmyers]

5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA

[Action Boy]

I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.

Pitt - first time starter at QB, young inexperienced OL ... going to play on the road, in altitude, before whats gonna be a sold out raucous crowd.

That one on the tube tonight? Interesting matchup.

Yes, Versus is carrying the game. I agree on Pitt's offensive line and you can never forget the Wannstedt factor. The dude always plays it close to the vest.

Utah's QB looked sharp at the end of last year...not sure why he didn't play all year long. They also have a nice running game with Asiata and Wide. Pitt's secondary is young and inexperienced.

Closing stat - Wittingham and the Utes are 2-4 as a single digit favorite at home during the past 2 years.

Utah 34-28

[swerb]

5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it.

[skatingtripods]

FAU/UAB over 50
Arizona -16
Mich St. -24

I'll probably add more. Going to see how the first two go.

[CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!]

Laid a 2 team parlay of NW -4.5 and Utah -3, $50 to win $136. I wish I liked a 3rd game to make a lesser $/ bigger payout 3team, but nothing is really exciting me.

[jjgmyers]

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it

They've lost like 4 or 5 dudes within the last week due to academics and such and this spread is only +1.5 on the road? It opened at +2.5 at some places. Their D is supposed to be sick this year.





Anyone look at the Minn/MTSU matchup?

MTSU -1? Really? Isn't Dasher suspended?

A Big 10 team vs. a freaking Sun Belt conf team? I know it's Minn, but damn. Minn has to be much bigger and faster than a sun belt conf team, no?

Is Minn really that bad?

[swerb]

Me, you, and nine of the guys in our fantasy football league could put up 35 points on the Gophers D.

[leadpipe]

Me, you, and nine of the guys in our fantasy football league could put up 35 points on the Gophers D.

That's the thing, not sure I can back any team that I wouldn't be shocked if they got 40 hung on em'

Don't know if Minnesota can do anything on D to make MT uncomfortable, and if they're cofortable, they will score the ball. A real tough game to take either way week 1 ILO.

[leadpipe]

5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it.

Always beware of the squad that has o-line problems right out of the box.

UCLA has O-line issues.

[leadpipe]

One more thing players, grab Oklahoma now, if you haven't already, before that line steams higher. LP got it at 31, around 34 now, and still a good wager.

FFFFFOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTBBBBAAAAALLLLL!!!!!!

[swerb]

One more thing players, grab Oklahoma now, if you haven't already, before that line steams higher. LP got it at 31, around 34 now, and still a good wager.

FFFFFOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTBBBBAAAAALLLLL!!!!!!

Love that play this week.

[jjgmyers]

Fucken Gophers. Knew that was a lock. Got scared of it.

[JCoz]

So no one else likes VT at FedEx?

I like them, the strengths are in the right place, Running game and Defense/ST's. They likely wont be rusty like Oregon was last season and the last time BSU came this far East they got torched by UGA.

This VT team probably isn't as good as that UGA team and this BSU team is a bit better than that version, but I see a tight to solid win from VT, 3-10 pts.

[Erie Warrior]

Toledo: U 21.5
OU: -34.5
Tex: -33.5
NW: -5
UConn: +3.5 & +120

Still waiting on some individual team O/U.

EDIT: Arizona -17

[skatingtripods]

Fucken Gophers. Knew that was a lock. Got scared of it.

Yeah, I liked Minn and the under all week long. Didn't take either one of them and both hit. At least the one play I made with the FAU/UAB game worked out.

[Erie Warrior]

Added BYU: -1 & Wash St/ Ok St: U 53

[Rally Squirl]

"Toledo blows, Arizona returns almost all their starters on offense. This one should be a 49-14 type pasting."



cashed in on that one :D took arizona -16.5

[skatingtripods]

Put some more money on Michigan St since the spread went to -22.5. I really hope that they show up.

Threw a wager on Texas -31.5. The idea of Mack Brown running the ball worries me in terms of them running up the score, but Rice is horrid against the run.

[Erie Warrior]

Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5

Tex and UConn can eat a bag of dicks.

[skatingtripods]

Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.

[Erie Warrior]

Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.

Gonna wait a while before I take any action on that game. TCU/ Or St. has me thinking. O/U 50 is a decent number.

[skatingtripods]

Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.

Gonna wait a while before I take any action on that game. TCU/ Or St. has me thinking. O/U 50 is a decent number.

56 points is a lot when UNLV will probably be lucky to get more than 10.

I hope.

I want to pull the trigger on Cincy outright, but I just don't know.

Edit: I think TCU puts on a defensive clinic.

[skatingtripods]

Defensive clinic my ass.

This game is wide open.

[skatingtripods]

Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5

Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.

[Erie Warrior]

Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5

Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.

It's been a bad day.

[skatingtripods]

Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5

Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.

It's been a bad day.

Hang in there. It should only get better for you, man.

[skatingtripods]

These turnovers are absolutely killing me in the Wisc/UNLV game. All these short TDs.

[Erie Warrior]

[skatingtripods]

Last bet of the weekend. Navy -3.5 1H.

[Erie Warrior]

Moving O/U on SMU- TTU, already dropped 2 points since 9. Of course I took the over around 9, so I'm sure it will hit 60.

[skatingtripods]

Moving O/U on SMU- TTU, already dropped 2 points since 9. Of course I took the over around 9, so I'm sure it will hit 60.

Nice play.

[skatingtripods]

Last bet of the weekend. Navy -3.5 1H.

Navy's defense is fucking pathetic. Absolutely embarrassing.

[skatingtripods]

4 RZ trips for Navy in the first half. 1 TD, 1 fumble (on the 1), 1 missed FG, and then they let the clock expire on them on the 3 yard line for halftime.

Unbelievable.

[Erie Warrior]

Navy is killing me. Sloppiest game I've seen them play. Should be 24-14. How the hell don't they get points right before the half. Throw one into the EZ, then kick the field goal. WTF.

[skatingtripods]

Navy is killing me. Sloppiest game I've seen them play. Should be 24-14. How the hell don't they get points right before the half. Throw one into the EZ, then kick the field goal. WTF.

I'm glad that they lost. They deserved to. After that shitty first half. Sorry that they screwed you.

On the other hand, I am a bit disappointed that I didn't take u25.5 for the 2nd half to get myself even on the game, but whatever.


Who you have tonight EW?

[Erie Warrior]

Who you have tonight EW?

Navy dominated that game. They really need to mix in the pass more. An option pass gets them into the end zone at the end of the game.

Got Boise tonight. Lines are already moving for next week, the early bird gets the good numbers.

[swerb]

Added a play on Va Tech (pick) ...

[jjgmyers]

Frank Beamer should get fired. 2 mins left. Boise no timeouts and he elects to pass the ball on 3rd down. Run the ball there and you take 1 min off the clock. That leaves Boise with roughly 1 min to score from their own territory.

I just don't get it