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NCAAF Week 1

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NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:48 pm

Never too early to fire this thread up for the week, especially with several Thursday games and a couple Friday tilts.

Early on, I like Minnesota-MTSU U49 and Arizona -14.5 at Toledo.

MTSU's starting QB was suspended for violation of NCAA rules and Minnesota has a RB by committee going. Neither team has a great defense, but I expect lots of uncertainty on offense.

Toledo blows, Arizona returns almost all their starters on offense. This one should be a 49-14 type pasting.

Still looking through the Saturday lines. It's tough with all the moving parts and wondering who will run up the score on their lesser foes.


Looking forward to Pipe's column, if he's still doing it.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:18 pm

Column will begin in two weeks, to coencide with the NFL week one. Would start it earlier with just college, but I will be out of town much of the time leading up to week one. I'll posts some picks on here in the mean time.

An interesting week one note from a Lead Man source in Vegas, Vegas is sweating one early as it seems like a TON of sharp money (and just about all monies on this game were of the early, sharp variety) steamed the Northwestern line fom an opening of 2, all the way to 5.5. All the heavy hitters pounced on NW early and often, and the books couldn't bump the line fast enough to keep up with the action. Vandy's only returning offensive lineman was injured pre-season, but it seems the sharps saw much more than this.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Aug 30, 2010 7:51 pm

Oddsmaker has it at NW -5 right now. They have to see something else to dislike about Vandy with NW sending out a redshirt junior at QB. Vandy's defense must be very suspect also.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 01, 2010 6:40 pm

EW, you were usually all over this thread last year. Any thoughts?

That Arizona-Toledo line keeps moving. Saw it at AZ -14.5 yesterday, up to -15.5 today.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Wed Sep 01, 2010 11:03 pm

Games I am playing this week ...

Thursday

Middle Tennessee St -3.5
Utah -3
No Illinois +4.5

Saturday

Notre Dame -11
Michigan -3
Louisville +3
Oklahoma -33.5
Nebraska -34.5
Troy -14
Northwestern -4.5
TCU -13.5
Fresno St -2.5

Monday

Maryland +6
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Action Boy » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:13 am

I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Thu Sep 02, 2010 10:21 am

Action Boy wrote:I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.

Pitt - first time starter at QB, young inexperienced OL ... going to play on the road, in altitude, before whats gonna be a sold out raucous crowd.

That one on the tube tonight? Interesting matchup.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby JCoz » Thu Sep 02, 2010 11:16 am

I'm probably going to put this in to get my feet wet, I'm going low dollar money line parlays this year, mostly for fun, last season I got my balls crushed, losing an entire years bankroll in 2 weeks.

It was unbelievable, never done worse. It would be to do any worse.

And the real mess? it was single games. It was a slaughter. I got cute and put way too much in play at once, but I figured worst case based on past history would be a couple games under .500..

Wrong.... Wrong.

3rd week I 3-team parlayed the remainder (<15% of the starting roll) to either get back on track or pack it in for the year.

I packed it in. At least I was true to my word and did in fact pack it in for the rest of the year.

Anyways, here's where I'm going week 1:

VT, Uconn, and LSU moneyline.

40 to win 233.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby jjgmyers » Thu Sep 02, 2010 1:26 pm

5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Action Boy » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:11 pm

swerb wrote:
Action Boy wrote:I like Utah as well for Thursday's games.

Pitt - first time starter at QB, young inexperienced OL ... going to play on the road, in altitude, before whats gonna be a sold out raucous crowd.

That one on the tube tonight? Interesting matchup.



Yes, Versus is carrying the game. I agree on Pitt's offensive line and you can never forget the Wannstedt factor. The dude always plays it close to the vest.

Utah's QB looked sharp at the end of last year...not sure why he didn't play all year long. They also have a nice running game with Asiata and Wide. Pitt's secondary is young and inexperienced.

Closing stat - Wittingham and the Utes are 2-4 as a single digit favorite at home during the past 2 years.

Utah 34-28
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Thu Sep 02, 2010 2:25 pm

jjgmyers wrote:5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:14 pm

FAU/UAB over 50
Arizona -16
Mich St. -24

I'll probably add more. Going to see how the first two go.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Thu Sep 02, 2010 4:48 pm

Laid a 2 team parlay of NW -4.5 and Utah -3, $50 to win $136. I wish I liked a 3rd game to make a lesser $/ bigger payout 3team, but nothing is really exciting me.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby jjgmyers » Thu Sep 02, 2010 5:50 pm

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it


They've lost like 4 or 5 dudes within the last week due to academics and such and this spread is only +1.5 on the road? It opened at +2.5 at some places. Their D is supposed to be sick this year.





Anyone look at the Minn/MTSU matchup?

MTSU -1? Really? Isn't Dasher suspended?

A Big 10 team vs. a freaking Sun Belt conf team? I know it's Minn, but damn. Minn has to be much bigger and faster than a sun belt conf team, no?

Is Minn really that bad?
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:01 pm

Me, you, and nine of the guys in our fantasy football league could put up 35 points on the Gophers D.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:26 pm

swerb wrote:Me, you, and nine of the guys in our fantasy football league could put up 35 points on the Gophers D.


That's the thing, not sure I can back any team that I wouldn't be shocked if they got 40 hung on em'

Don't know if Minnesota can do anything on D to make MT uncomfortable, and if they're cofortable, they will score the ball. A real tough game to take either way week 1 ILO.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:33 pm

swerb wrote:
jjgmyers wrote:5* UCLA

Make only 1 play this week.... play UCLA

That's one of the games this week ... I can't get my hands around it. UCLA is one of those teams, seems like every time I bet em they don't show up. They beat K St last year 23-9 in the opener (in LA) ... but K St out gained em. So a little revenge factor, UCLA traveling to Kansas ... I'm just up in the air on it.


Always beware of the squad that has o-line problems right out of the box.

UCLA has O-line issues.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Sep 02, 2010 7:39 pm

One more thing players, grab Oklahoma now, if you haven't already, before that line steams higher. LP got it at 31, around 34 now, and still a good wager.

FFFFFOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTBBBBAAAAALLLLL!!!!!!
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:26 pm

leadpipe wrote:One more thing players, grab Oklahoma now, if you haven't already, before that line steams higher. LP got it at 31, around 34 now, and still a good wager.

FFFFFOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTBBBBAAAAALLLLL!!!!!!

Love that play this week.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby jjgmyers » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:04 am

Fucken Gophers. Knew that was a lock. Got scared of it.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:29 am

So no one else likes VT at FedEx?

I like them, the strengths are in the right place, Running game and Defense/ST's. They likely wont be rusty like Oregon was last season and the last time BSU came this far East they got torched by UGA.

This VT team probably isn't as good as that UGA team and this BSU team is a bit better than that version, but I see a tight to solid win from VT, 3-10 pts.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:08 am

Toledo: U 21.5
OU: -34.5
Tex: -33.5
NW: -5
UConn: +3.5 & +120

Still waiting on some individual team O/U.

EDIT: Arizona -17
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:52 am

jjgmyers wrote:Fucken Gophers. Knew that was a lock. Got scared of it.


Yeah, I liked Minn and the under all week long. Didn't take either one of them and both hit. At least the one play I made with the FAU/UAB game worked out.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:31 am

Added BYU: -1 & Wash St/ Ok St: U 53
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Rally Squirl » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:37 am

"Toledo blows, Arizona returns almost all their starters on offense. This one should be a 49-14 type pasting."



cashed in on that one :D took arizona -16.5
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:45 am

Put some more money on Michigan St since the spread went to -22.5. I really hope that they show up.

Threw a wager on Texas -31.5. The idea of Mack Brown running the ball worries me in terms of them running up the score, but Rice is horrid against the run.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:37 pm

Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5

Tex and UConn can eat a bag of dicks.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:58 pm

Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 04, 2010 7:12 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.


Gonna wait a while before I take any action on that game. TCU/ Or St. has me thinking. O/U 50 is a decent number.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 7:16 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Just added Wisky/UNLV u56.


Gonna wait a while before I take any action on that game. TCU/ Or St. has me thinking. O/U 50 is a decent number.


56 points is a lot when UNLV will probably be lucky to get more than 10.

I hope.

I want to pull the trigger on Cincy outright, but I just don't know.

Edit: I think TCU puts on a defensive clinic.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:15 pm

Defensive clinic my ass.

This game is wide open.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:25 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5


Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:45 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Erie Warrior wrote:Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5


Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.


It's been a bad day.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:59 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Erie Warrior wrote:Added San Jose St: +40.5 and Hou/ Tex St: U75.5


Better hope Texas State doesn't score at all the way that one's going.


It's been a bad day.


Hang in there. It should only get better for you, man.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:42 am

These turnovers are absolutely killing me in the Wisc/UNLV game. All these short TDs.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Sep 05, 2010 8:28 am

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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:45 am

Last bet of the weekend. Navy -3.5 1H.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Sep 05, 2010 12:00 pm

Moving O/U on SMU- TTU, already dropped 2 points since 9. Of course I took the over around 9, so I'm sure it will hit 60.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Sep 05, 2010 6:38 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:Moving O/U on SMU- TTU, already dropped 2 points since 9. Of course I took the over around 9, so I'm sure it will hit 60.


Nice play.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Sep 06, 2010 4:21 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Last bet of the weekend. Navy -3.5 1H.


Navy's defense is fucking pathetic. Absolutely embarrassing.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:20 pm

4 RZ trips for Navy in the first half. 1 TD, 1 fumble (on the 1), 1 missed FG, and then they let the clock expire on them on the 3 yard line for halftime.

Unbelievable.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Mon Sep 06, 2010 5:57 pm

Navy is killing me. Sloppiest game I've seen them play. Should be 24-14. How the hell don't they get points right before the half. Throw one into the EZ, then kick the field goal. WTF.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Sep 06, 2010 7:30 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:Navy is killing me. Sloppiest game I've seen them play. Should be 24-14. How the hell don't they get points right before the half. Throw one into the EZ, then kick the field goal. WTF.


I'm glad that they lost. They deserved to. After that shitty first half. Sorry that they screwed you.

On the other hand, I am a bit disappointed that I didn't take u25.5 for the 2nd half to get myself even on the game, but whatever.


Who you have tonight EW?
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:01 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Who you have tonight EW?


Navy dominated that game. They really need to mix in the pass more. An option pass gets them into the end zone at the end of the game.

Got Boise tonight. Lines are already moving for next week, the early bird gets the good numbers.
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby swerb » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:04 pm

Added a play on Va Tech (pick) ...
"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

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swerb
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Re: NCAAF Week 1

Unread postby jjgmyers » Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:20 am

Frank Beamer should get fired. 2 mins left. Boise no timeouts and he elects to pass the ball on 3rd down. Run the ball there and you take 1 min off the clock. That leaves Boise with roughly 1 min to score from their own territory.

I just don't get it
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