How do things play out in Miami?

[FUDU]

You'd have to be completely naive to think they will not win a title, the question becomes when not if.

It is too early to project what goes down during the 2010/2011 season until they get their roster filled, however there is no guarantee things go smoothly for them in this first season.

There is only 1 basketball, there are only a limited number of possessions humanly possible in a 48 minute game, you have to get stops, and when push comes to shove who is "the guy" when it comes to winning the game and making the play. Not to mention which of the three is going to be most OK with taking the statistical and egotistical hits, b/c somebody is?

Curious as to everyone's thoughts, not that we should really give a shit mind you.

[JCoz]

Lot's of injuries coupled with choke jobs hopefully.

Lakers have a legit shot for 1-2 more years and then hopefully the zombie sonics will have grown up enough to take them out after that.

[Madre Hill, Superstar]

You'd have to be completely naive to think they will not win a title, the question becomes when not if.

Question is still if. Two guys jocking the third to carry them to a title and I remain Missourian if Kumar can juggle all the egos. Throw in a lockout, a less superstar-friendly CBA, the rise of the Zombie Sonics, a PO'd Rose 'n Noah, the Heat having a target on their back while living and dying by LeISO, and its going to be a lot harder than Screamin' A or anyone else thinks.

[CP]

I think 2 finals appearances, maybe winning 1...

Base that on them not making Finals this year and the unlikelihood that all 3 stay healthy every year, which I think needs to happen in order for them to win. They also have to find legit NBA PG and C, which can be two of the hardest positions to fill, unless they get Paul in 2012, in which case I'm not holding myself to the above.

[FUDU]

I think there will be issues with who everyone feels the team belongs to, who finishes off games and who is the QB. The talk now is LeBron will be the PG initially, while he has the vision and passing skills I don't see that as the best use of his talent. How can you take that athleticism and strength and put a rev limiter on it at the position that requires a distributor mentality?

Not to mention how many minutes those 3 will have to log in year 1.

[jb]

[aoxo1]

LeBron will defer to Wade. He's wanted it in Cleveland, he did it in the Olympics, and he will do it again.

He is all talk about being a leader, but I'm sure we've all met plenty of guys who don't have what they want inside, so they run their mouths.

[CP]

I think there will be issues with who everyone feels the team belongs to, who finishes off games and who is the QB. The talk now is LeBron will be the PG initially, while he has the vision and passing skills I don't see that as the best use of his talent. How can you take that athleticism and strength and put a rev limiter on it at the position that requires a distributor mentality?

Not to mention how many minutes those 3 will have to log in year 1.

They will have no issues chewing through teams in the regular season. They should be able to run at will. They have to be careful to avoid the same problems that plagued the offense in Cleveland, where everyone but the guy with the ball becomes a catch and shoot player. Against a good team that rotates well on defense, I'm not sure I'd want to bank on that crew hitting jumper after jumper.

[Triple-S]

-They'll win a title, but a lot of their legacies will be effected by it. None of the three will ever be on the level of Bird, Magic or Jordan. That's perhaps solely reserved for Kobe, or maybe in the future Durant?

-LeBron is pretty much now the most hated player in the NBA, not only will he no longer have respect from his hometown, but it's highly doubtful he'll be welcome in NYC after this tirade. Read the Knicks and Nets forums, you'll see what I mean.

-Now that's he most hated, watch his endorsement deals evaporate. No one will want to touch this guy right now, he humiliated his hometown on national television. Not only that, his role of a player has significantly downsized, I mean at worse, he could have been Dominique Wilkins pt. 2, but that is out of the cards, as he's no longer the alpha dog of his own team. I could call him Scottie Pippen, but I think Pippen deserves a better comparison, so I'll call him Robin.

[diminishingskills]

You'd have to be completely naive to think they will not win a title, the question becomes when not if.

Not agreeing, Donny. And not because of the anger stage.

The new Big Three are an impressive combination, no doubt. They may well win a title next season, and they may well win multiple titles over the next several years.

But as always, there's a reason they play the games. And I can see several reasons why this may not go quite the way Miami is thinking:

1. Bron and Wade have very similar games. I shudder to make this comparison, and stay with me for a minute here, but I see a parallel between this and 2005, when the Cavs signed Larry Hughes to be Bron's running mate. Obviously, Wade is much better than IHS; point is though, that Bron and Hughes were tripping over each other's dicks because of their similar skill sets, and I can see much the same thing happening with Bron and Wade. It is not like they are both going to continue averaging 28 points a game.

2. You need an interior presence to win in the NBA, definitely in May and June. You need a guy who can make opposing guards think about driving the lane unopposed. You need a big dude who can score two feet from the hoop. I don't see where Miami has that guy. Bron plays the interior as though somebody sprinkled anthrax in the post. Bosh doesn't have the strength or mentality to bang with the league's bigger men. Wade is a SG.

3. You also need a commitment to defense to win in the spring. I'm not sure this team will have it. We've seen Bron grow as an individual defender over the years. Wade can play some D too. Bosh ... is just below Sasha Pavlovic in his "my offense is my defense" attitude. (Don't know if that's him, or just the result of spending his formative years in a system where D was never emphasized.)

4. Don't underestimate the ego factor. Wade is used to being The Man. Bron is used to being The Man. Right now, they are saying all the right things about coexisting. What happens when Ril ... er, Spoelstra draws up an end-of-game play for Bron, and he blows it? Does Wade feel resentment? What about when the roles are reversed? We have never seen two in-their-prime alpha dogs on the same team before ... so we really don't know what to predict. Maybe it will all work. Or maybe, like communism, it sounds good on paper, but doesn't work when you get to devil/details land.

5. The Heat have shot their wad. They will not be able to improve their roster any more this offseason (unless they use Beasley's room to get a decent FA; I suspect that cap room was cleared to get Bosh and Bron closer to the max). They do not have access to the MLE this year. Next season, they may not have the MLE then either, depending on what happens with the next CBA. Any draft picks they have (not sure exactly what they will have, depending on the S&T for Bosh) will be low and unlikely to make much of a contribution.

And it takes more than three players to win. More than one commentator has looked to the 80s-vintage Lakers and Celtics as examples of superstar-driven teams. Sure, the Lakers had Magic/Kareem/Worthy ... but they also had a good number of solid complementary players like (ironically) Byron Scott, A.C. Green, Michael Cooper, Bob McAdoo, Maurice Lucas, Kurt Rambis, and Mychal Thompson. The Celtics had Bird/Parish/McHale ... but they also had DJ, Ainge, Cornbread Maxwell, and Gerald Henderson. More recently, the 90s Bulls had Jordan and Pippen as the Big Two ... surrounded by plenty of solid guys in Ho Grant, Rodman, B.J. Armstrong, Paxson, Kerr, Cartwright, and so on.

Maybe some veterans will be enticed to take the minimum so they can play with Miami Thrice. But money usually talks, and with so many teams out there still having cap room to piss away, and with the uncertain labor situation after this season, I can't see many guys turning down millions just to go to Miami.

I sure can't blame Miami for going this route. I'm just not as convinced as most that it will bring a bunch of rings to South Beach.

[aoxo1]

1. Bron and Wade have very similar games. I shudder to make this comparison, and stay with me for a minute here, but I see a parallel between this and 2005, when the Cavs signed Larry Hughes to be Bron's running mate. Obviously, Wade is much better than IHS; point is though, that Bron and Hughes were tripping over each other's dicks because of their similar skill sets, and I can see much the same thing happening with Bron and Wade. It is not like they are both going to continue averaging 28 points a game.

IHS came to Cleveland at the age of 27, after 7 years in the league, during which he played in 50, 82, 50, 73, 67, 61, and 61 (444/574 = 77%) regular season games.
Wade is 27 and has had 7 years in the league, during he has played in 61, 77, 75, 51, 51, 79, and 77 (471/574 = 82%) regular season games.

[Madre Hill, Superstar]

2. You need an interior presence to win in the NBA, definitely in May and June. You need a guy who can make opposing guards think about driving the lane unopposed. You need a big dude who can score two feet from the hoop. I don't see where Miami has that guy. Bron plays the interior as though somebody sprinkled anthrax in the post. Bosh doesn't have the strength or mentality to bang with the league's bigger men. Wade is a SG.

And that's the killer. Howard, KG/Perk, Noah/Boozer, Gasol/Bynum... they can all stuff the lane. It'll be LeISO all over again, with D-Wade and Mike Miller in the Mo 'n AP memorial roles. The Heat need that post guy and odds are highly unlikely they'll be getting one this year or anytime soon.

[FUDU]

DS, I agree with a lot of your points, I just think Riley ends up putting just enough around them get a title. When and how many I cannot guess simply b/c they have so much work to do this first season.

Get ready for the LeBron will average a triple double talk though.

[diminishingskills]

IHS came to Cleveland at the age of 27, after 7 years in the league, during which he played in 50, 82, 50, 73, 67, 61, and 61 (444/574 = 77%) regular season games. Wade is 27 and has had 7 years in the league, during he has played in 61, 77, 75, 51, 51, 79, and 77 (471/574 = 82%) regular season games.

As Roger Brown might say: Hmmmm. Except in this case, it actually means something.

I do wonder about Wade's durability. That dude has taken a POUNDING over his career.

[peeker643]

Lotta things to like about Miami:

There are hurricanes and snakes, AIDS and crocodiles. Possibly the worst of the Hurricanes is the football team at The U who typically are better armed than your average battalion.

LBJ and his family will likely spend more time in the air going back and forth, at least initially. And while air travel is statistically safer than driving I'm okay with him spending more time at 30,000 feet with a thin layer of metal and plastic around him.

There's probably a higher incidence of sun cancer down there too.

Any one of the above s how I'd like to see it play out down in Miami. To any of the three really.

And if not that, well, ligaments and bones tear and snap all the time.

[diminishingskills]

DS, I agree with a lot of your points, I just think Riley ends up putting just enough around them get a title. When and how many I cannot guess simply b/c they have so much work to do this first season.

That's cool, Donny. Reasonable minds and all that.

I have this feeling though, that as regards Gilbert's challenge that the Cavs will win a title before Bron does ... that 10 years from now, we may still not have an answer on that one.

[Triple-S]

Lotta things to like about Miami:

There are hurricanes and snakes, AIDS and crocodiles. Possibly the worst of the Hurricanes is the football team at The U who typically are better armed than your average battalion.

LBJ and his family will likely spend more time in the air going back and forth, at least initially. And while air travel is statistically safer than driving I'm okay with him spending more time at 30,000 feet with a thin layer of metal and plastic around him.

There's probably a higher incidence of sun cancer down there too.

Any one of the above s how I'd like to see it play out down in Miami. To any of the three really.

And if not that, well, ligaments and bones tear and snap all the time.

Excellent, and don't forget the drug lords he could possibly run into.

[jb]

LeBron will defer to Wade. He's wanted it in Cleveland, he did it in the Olympics, and he will do it again.

He is all talk about being a leader, but I'm sure we've all met plenty of guys who don't have what they want inside, so they run their mouths.

Precisely.

Bron = Tin Man.

[FUDU]

DS, I agree with a lot of your points, I just think Riley ends up putting just enough around them get a title. When and how many I cannot guess simply b/c they have so much work to do this first season.

That's cool, Donny. Reasonable minds and all that.

I have this feeling though, that as regards Gilbert's challenge that the Cavs will win a title before Bron does ... that 10 years from now, we may still not have an answer on that one.

Eeek, but in the end if it means we don't have ours but he doesn't have his I'll deal with it. I'm Irish, we can deal with stuff being wrong in our lives forever. Add to that I'm a Clevelander, what the hell can't I handle?

One last point on the Heat roster moving forward. The schmucks they do get initially might turn out to be half way decent with that kind of core talent around them, you never know? Honestly how good a PG would you need to feed a Wade, LBJ and Bosh (assuming LBJ not playing the 1 at some point in time)?

[jb]

2. You need an interior presence to win in the NBA, definitely in May and June. You need a guy who can make opposing guards think about driving the lane unopposed. You need a big dude who can score two feet from the hoop.

Bullshit. Wish I could be more couth, but can't.

Guards game now, Johnny. Rules' changes.

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

For a guy I 99% defer to on hoops knowledge, this is flat out off.

[FUDU]

2. You need an interior presence to win in the NBA, definitely in May and June. You need a guy who can make opposing guards think about driving the lane unopposed. You need a big dude who can score two feet from the hoop.

Bullshit. Wish I could be more couth, but can't.

Guards game now, Johnny. Rules' changes.

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

For a guy I 99% defer to on hoops knowledge, this is flat out off.

No it isn't JB. Sure the true center that you and I grew up with is gone, but the low post interior presence guy is still needed, the truth is in the evidence.

No need to look any further than the champs of the past decade.

[Madre Hill, Superstar]

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

Howard, Perk, and Bynum disagree. OKC gets Camby and all bets are off in the West.

[diminishingskills]

Bullshit. Wish I could be more couth, but can't.

Guards game now, Johnny. Rules' changes.

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

For a guy I 99% defer to on hoops knowledge, this is flat out off.

What Donny said. Don't think in terms of mastodons like George Mikan; think the Dream, the Big Fundy, KG/Perkins, Pau/Bynum.

Bottom line, is and always will be easier to score from 2 feet than from 20. And the more likely a guy is to smack his head into the top of a door frame, the more likely he is to score on that two footer.

Even Wade, who is the ultimate example of what you're saying, couldn't win dick without Shaq and Zo. Sheet, Udonis Haslem was a better interior presence than anything the Heat have today, and he spends an estimated 84.6% of his time chewing on that fucking mouthguard of his.

Show me the team that won without a big'un and I'll listen; till then, I'm on I-70 somewhere between St. Louis and KC.

[jb]

Bullshit. Wish I could be more couth, but can't.

Guards game now, Johnny. Rules' changes.

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

For a guy I 99% defer to on hoops knowledge, this is flat out off.

What Donny said. Don't think in terms of mastodons like George Mikan; think the Dream, the Big Fundy, KG/Perkins, Pau/Bynum.

Bottom line, is and always will be easier to score from 2 feet than from 20. And the more likely a guy is to smack his head into the top of a door frame, the more likely he is to score on that two footer.

Even Wade, who is the ultimate example of what you're saying, couldn't win dick without Shaq and Zo. Sheet, Udonis Haslem was a better interior presence than anything the Heat have today, and he spends an estimated 84.6% of his time chewing on that fucking mouthguard of his.

Show me the team that won without a big'un and I'll listen; till then, I'm on I-70 somewhere between St. Louis and KC.

LA Lakers

[RickNashEquilibrium]

Gasol, Odom, and Bynum are not small.

EDIT: For the record, a big'un doesn't have to be be just a bruiser. A guy like Gasol is very much a big'un who happens to have more of a finesse game but still a damn potent threat in the post.

[FUDU]

Bullshit. Wish I could be more couth, but can't.

Guards game now, Johnny. Rules' changes.

Big men are tits on bulls in this era.

For a guy I 99% defer to on hoops knowledge, this is flat out off.

What Donny said. Don't think in terms of mastodons like George Mikan; think the Dream, the Big Fundy, KG/Perkins, Pau/Bynum.

Bottom line, is and always will be easier to score from 2 feet than from 20. And the more likely a guy is to smack his head into the top of a door frame, the more likely he is to score on that two footer.

Even Wade, who is the ultimate example of what you're saying, couldn't win dick without Shaq and Zo. Sheet, Udonis Haslem was a better interior presence than anything the Heat have today, and he spends an estimated 84.6% of his time chewing on that fucking mouthguard of his.

Show me the team that won without a big'un and I'll listen; till then, I'm on I-70 somewhere between St. Louis and KC.

LA Lakers

[peeker643]

Well, don't be surprised to see guys like Z and Eddie House fill out that roster.

There are plenty of guys who have either made their money or whose options for salary don't matter on which team they play that they will have no issues getting guys there.

Guy like Mike Miller, whose made his cake, you don't think he'll take less to go stand in the corner and shoot wide open shots?

They'll get it done.

And Z will be playing in either Miami or Chicago this season. LBJ actually inquired with Z as to that last night. Hopefully Z understands the relationship issues that would cause him here and goes to Chicago for 12-15 minutes a night instead.

That's per my sources.

[jb]

Gasol, Odom, and Bynum are not small.

EDIT: For the record, a big'un doesn't have to be be just a bruiser. A guy like Gasol is very much a big'un who happens to have more of a finesse game but still a damn potent threat in the post.

Took John to mean a center, a true center. Bynum was dinged all Finals.

Aew nuts, I'm just a mess right now. I don't want to fight w/ Hnat.

Sorry.

[e0y2e3]

FWIW: Mike Miller taking Beasley's contract and signing there is HUGE.

They really needed a guy like him and it's amazing they already have one.

Still need that center, which is going to be a whole nother story. Expect Joel Anthony to be their starting center.

[aoxo1]

FWIW: Mike Miller taking Beasley's contract and signing there is HUGE.

They really needed a guy like him and it's amazing they already have one.

Still need that center, which is going to be a whole nother story. Expect Joel Anthony to be their starting center.

So who plays PG? They can't really expect LeBron or Wade to guard the rapidly multiplying ankle breakers?

Or does Miller come off the bench?

[e0y2e3]

Big question, roster certainly isn't done, but that was a big piece.

And Chalmers plays good D. If he keeps knocking down that corner shot every once in awhile he may be just fine.

[aoxo1]

I guess LBJ plays PF so they can get Miller on the court.

Hard to believe he would do that for long periods.

[e0y2e3]

I guess LBJ plays PF so they can get Miller on the court.

Yeah but then Bosh has to bang at center, which he REALLY doesn't want to do. He wants to be Pau.

Maybe Miller is their Posey?

I dunno at this point. They are still probably two pieces away from having any idea themselves I would guess.

[aoxo1]

So they use the rest of their non-minimum money to sign a bench shooter? Whatever.

If I've learned anything, it's that I don't know shit about basketball.

[e0y2e3]

Thing is, of the players left he is the best compliment to a team like that, regardless of position. I mean who else where they going to chase? Brad Miller?

[e0y2e3]

Getting scarier if this works out:

IraHeatBeat: Heat putting together major package of picks for James sign-and-trade. Word inside league is Heat is finding a way to keep Udonis Haslem.

[aoxo1]

What kind of package of picks does Miami have to put together?

[e0y2e3]

I'm hoping something like every other year for six years (three total) of ones, Isaiah style.

[aoxo1]

If Toronto is getting the Heat #1 in 2011, that means we wouldn't start getting picks until 2013. They need to give up more than 3 picks every other year for 6 years starting 3 years from now. That's shit.

[e0y2e3]

If Toronto is getting the Heat #1 in 2011, that means we wouldn't start getting picks until 2013. They need to give up more than 3 picks every other year for 6 years starting 3 years from now. That's shit.

Isn't Toronto just getting their own #1 back in 2011?

[aoxo1]

IraHeatBeat And Bosh deal apparently sends Heat 2011 first-rounder plus pick owed from Toronto back to Raptors. College will become a rumor to Heat.

No official word yet, though, so maybe.

[aoxo1]

Windy's tweet also has them getting a Heat #1 in addition to their own back.

[British_Pharaoh]

I still don't even think they're the best team in the East

[leadpipe]

You know how the NBA works, bottom line is that their "minimum guys" are going to be a hell of a lot better than Golden States. Already shaking the trees for a guy like Miller, who can now go several years without having a guy within 5 feet of him.

They'll be good. Real good.

Now, that doesn't guarantee anything, and in most given years certainly the field is the favorite over a particular team, but if you took a 3 year window, I think the Heat are a favorite over the field to win a title.

You can ask this year's Lakers about depth or you could ask Jordan how good Bill Cartwright or Will Perdue was....sure, hell of a lot easier to win with EVERY component. But the components they do have are off the charts.

The question was posed from Stu Scott to Lebron in the midst of that circus "10 seconds left tie game, who gets the ball....?" They were centering on the selfishness aspect etc., many on here are talking about Lebron deferring etc. But bottom line is, what if you're the opposing coach. Good holy Christ you've got some problems.


Again, we're already seeing things come together. Miller, signs they may keep Haslem...they're already pretty close to good enough aside from those three. So much so that ILO the "supporting cast" argument is almost moot now, and certainly will be in a month. Hang your hat on Chemistry and health, because if those things go the Heat's way they aren't losing many games anytime, anywhere.

Interesting to see how this plays out, but I'm afraid we're not really going to like it.

[waborat]

Okay, all you contract gurus, how exactly can the Heat keep getting players like this?

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/n ... id=5368129

The sources are back!!! Riley to be back on bench? Shocking

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baske ... _trio.html

[peeker643]

Okay, all you contract gurus, how exactly can the Heat keep getting players like this?

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/n ... id=5368129

The sources are back!!! Riley to be back on bench? Shocking

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baske ... _trio.html

My sources tell me that Eric Spoelstra should never, EVER walk in front of of Pat Riley down steps or across a street.

And he should never lose. Not once.

[daddywags]

Everybody's put their finger on it: Their biggest problem is bigs. Look at the match-ups:

- They play Boston. Bosh has to neutralize Garnett. Fair enough and probably doable. But then who handles O'Neal, Perkins and Baby? Those bigs are coming at you in waves.

- They play Chicago. Bosh neutralizes Boozer. Who handles Noah?

- They play Orlando. Bosh wants nothing to do with Howard. How do they defend him?

- They play the Lakers. Bosh hopes to neutralize Gasol. Who handles Bynum?

In all of these situations, what happens when Bosh gets his 10-12 minutes of rest? He's averaged 37 mpg on his career.

I know it can be turned around and we can have fun with "who handles LeBron" and "who handles Wade" etc. But this isn't (in my opinion) about how they score points: they will be able to score lots of points. This is about how they defend the interior and multiple scoring big men.

I think they will win a title, maybe more than one. But the ability to do that could hinge on what happens to the mid-level exception in next summer's CBO negotiations. If they are able to toss around $30 million contracts using the MLE they'll be fine and will fill out the team pretty quickly. But if they can't, they could find it hard to play top level playoff basketball with Chris Bosh and a bunch of has-beens trying to defend the paint.

[FUDU]

- They play the Lakers. Bosh hopes to neutralize Gasol. Who handles Bynum?

Usually Gary Vitti.

[e0y2e3]

Thanks to the S & T's and the dumping of Beasley the Heat have added The 3 Fucks and Mike Miller and are still $4MM under the cap.

IraHeatBeat: After all its wheeling and dealing, and including likely deal for Mike Miller, Heat has about $4 million left in space. Haslem and Fisher?

IraHeatBeat: Derek Fisher, indeed, is in South Florida meeting right now with Pat Riley & Co. Big three are pushing Fisher to do the deal with the Heat.

IraHeatBeat: Also, do not rule out a return by James Jones. Those wheels already have been set in motion. Minimum roster not looking so minimal.

[e0y2e3]

Oh and a great point raised by one of my friends last night:

If you look at Miami's draft all they did was load up on the one thing they were not going to be able to get in FA, defensive minded centers. They drafted as if they already knew this plan was a done deal.