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2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

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2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby Babrook » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:27 pm

1. Texas
2. Boston
3. Tampa
4. Cleveland
5. Atlanta
6. Baltimore
7. Chicago Cubs
8. Colorado
9. Kansas City
10. Cincinnati
11. San Diego
12. Florida
13. Minnesota
14. Oakland
15. New York Mets
16. Toronto
17. Detroit
18. Pittsburgh
19. Los Angeles Dodgers
20. San Francisco
21. Seattle
22. Los Angeles Angles
23. Washington
24. Philadelphia
25. New York Yankees
26. Milwaukee
27. Arizona
28. Houston
29. St. Louis
30. Chicago White Sox


Would love to share more but this is all I have. Nice to see the Tribe up close to the top.

Boston's 2008 draft class is insanely impressive. No surprise they've shot up.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:30 pm

He basically opines that what the Tribe organization lacks in star power (outside of Santana and Chisenhall), they make up for in sheer depth.

This line summing up the farm system sickened me:

There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby Babrook » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:36 pm

He said the exact same thing last year.

Not every player in the system needs to have superstar potential.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby gotribe31 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:38 pm

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:He basically opines that what the Tribe organization lacks in star power (outside of Santana and Chisenhall), they make up for in sheer depth.

This line summing up the farm system sickened me:

There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers.


It helps a lot if you read the whole quote:
4. Cleveland Indians
They continue to build depth without a ton of impact prospects, although Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall are exceptions to that rule, and they have a handful of low-A/short-season guys who could break away from the pack. There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby TitoFrancona » Wed Jan 27, 2010 6:53 pm

Gotribe31 wrote: There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market.
[/quote]

Okay, I won't even go there. :hide:
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 7:35 pm

Babrook wrote:Not every player in the system needs to have superstar potential.


If this were the sole criteria the Tribe would be an easy #1.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby ArtGold » Wed Jan 27, 2010 11:41 pm

Peeker643 wrote:
Babrook wrote:Not every player in the system needs to have superstar potential.


If this were the sole criteria the Tribe would be an easy #1.



They'd share it with Pittsburgh.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:08 am

ArtGold wrote:
Peeker643 wrote:
Babrook wrote:Not every player in the system needs to have superstar potential.


If this were the sole criteria the Tribe would be an easy #1.



They'd share it with Pittsburgh.


True dat. At least that's what the kids say.

I believe it means, loosely translated, I agree.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby motherscratcher » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:23 am

Peeker643 wrote:True dat. At least that's what the kids say.

I believe it means, loosely translated, I agree.


I'm pretty sure you're right. I think it replaced "your damn skippy" around 2006-2007.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby motherscratcher » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:24 am

Also, it's nice to see KLaw so up on Chisenhall. If I remember correctly he was pretty down on him when he was drafted.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby DP. » Thu Jan 28, 2010 8:32 am

MLB.com has Santana and Brantley in their Top 50 Prospects list.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:22 am

Motherscratcher wrote:Also, it's nice to see KLaw so up on Chisenhall. If I remember correctly he was pretty down on him when he was drafted.



Don't know if it was KLaw but a few of the guys covering the draft were on him. Said that the BoSox would have taken him with the next pick if we didn't. Only dropped that far because of the arrest (accessory to a theft?). I don't think anyone questioned that he could hit, just more where he would play.


4. Cleveland


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So we got that going for us.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:25 pm

Motherscratcher wrote:Also, it's nice to see KLaw so up on Chisenhall. If I remember correctly he was pretty down on him when he was drafted.


dnosco nearly blew a fuse, claiming he was an 'overdraft' and that the Tribe should low-ball offer him in order to save money.

He looks like he could be a steal at where they got him and what they signed him for if his development continues like it has.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:39 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:
Motherscratcher wrote:Also, it's nice to see KLaw so up on Chisenhall. If I remember correctly he was pretty down on him when he was drafted.


dnosco nearly blew a fuse, claiming he was an 'overdraft' and that the Tribe should low-ball offer him in order to save money.

He looks like he could be a steal at where they got him and what they signed him for if his development continues like it has.


dnosco is smarter than everyone else.

Everyone. Ask him.

The fact you didn't know that or pay homage to it actually proves it.

So you watch yourself mister.

If you're going to use his name at least post a genuflective sign of respect:

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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby motherscratcher » Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:42 pm

I hate to show my ignorance but I figure I'm not fooling anyone anyway so...

Who's dnosco?
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:09 pm

Motherscratcher wrote:I hate to show my ignorance but I figure I'm not fooling anyone anyway so...

Who's dnosco?


You sir, are a heretic. ;-) ;) :wink:

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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby Commodore Perry » Thu Jan 28, 2010 1:54 pm

Gotribe31 wrote:It helps a lot if you read the whole quote:
4. Cleveland Indians
They continue to build depth without a ton of impact prospects, although Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall are exceptions to that rule, and they have a handful of low-A/short-season guys who could break away from the pack. There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market.


So the Indians farm system is built around keeping costs low. No more CC's or Manny's as they only demand more money then the team will pay and anger the fans when the leave.

The farm system is now built to ensure a steady stream of David Dellucis at all positions. Better to pay 350k for a Delluci off your farm system, then 3.5 million on the market.

Sounds great for the team's books, not so hot for the team's fans.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:07 pm

Law released his top 100 prospect list today. Lots of love for Indians prospects. Also, a shocker at the top (Heyward over Strasburg).

Carlos Santana 3rd overall
Lonnie Chisenhall 26th
Hector Rondon 51st
Michael Brantley 71st
Nick Hagadone 100th

Santana could be the Victor Martinez who can actually catch -- a switch-hitter with legitimate plate discipline and power with good receiving skills and an above-average arm... At the plate, Santana does start his hands a little deep, but he uses that to create great leverage in his swing as he explodes from his loaded position to the ball, with both hard contact and good loft when he squares a pitch up -- something he does quite often with an approach one Cleveland executive called "selective-aggressive," meaning Santana works the count but is more than happy to jump on a pitch he can hit early in an at-bat. He's a good athlete and runs well for a backstop. Santana has good hands behind the plate and arm strength, and he has shown progress in the one deficiency in his catching, his ability to handle a staff and work with pitchers.

Chisenhall has one of the best swings in the minors, a classic left-hander's swing with good hip rotation and raw power to right and right-center, which was already on display in the 22 home runs he hit between high-A and Double-A in 2009. He played the entire year at the age of 20 and showed the ability to make contact and control the bat in and around the zone, while his walk rate, through not great, was adequate and also reflected the ease with which he makes contact. A miscast shortstop in college, Chisenhall has settled in at third base and made his body leaner, giving him a good chance to stay at the position and even end up a little above-average there.

Rondon arrived on the scene at the 2008 Futures Game and followed up that strong season with an even better one despite two promotions that brought him to the cusp of the big leagues. He won't turn 22 for another month, but he has already shown an unusual ability (for someone so young) to pitch with his fastball, commanding it in and around the zone; it's 91-94 mph with great life. His best off-speed pitch is his changeup, above-average at times at 83-84 with good action and arm speed. He's still working on his slider, which remains inconsistent and often has an early break. His control is superb -- he's walked 101 in 480 pro innings, and just 29 in a full minor league season in 2009. He's shown that even on nights when he doesn't have the consistent slider or his best changeup, he can pitch with his fastball. Pitchers without great breaking balls often have lower ceilings as starters, but Rondon's ability to throw strikes, soak up innings and command the fastball give him a chance to exceed that limitation.

Brantley has some of the best bat control of anyone on this list, with an improving eye at the plate and above-average speed that all plays up because of his feel for the game. He keeps his hands back incredibly well, letting the ball travel and then ripping the bat through the zone and showing the ability to shoot an outside pitch down the left field line. He can run but, more importantly, is a very high-percentage base stealer who reads pitchers well, stealing on over 81 percent of attempts in his minor league career. He's a good center fielder who could probably play center every day for a number of teams, but won't get that chance in Cleveland unless Grady Sizemore gets hurt again. Brantley's main liability is lack of power, which may limit his ability to play in an outfield corner unless he hits and reaches base at the top end of his abilities -- which he might very well do given his instincts and ability to square up so many pitches.

Hagadone had an eventful year in 2009, coming back from Tommy John surgery only to find himself traded 25 innings into his return in the Victor Martinez deal. He has an electric arm, sitting in the mid-90s and touching the upper 90s with good life, and his slider is above-average to plus. Left-handed hitters are just 12-for-71 off Hagadone in pro ball, with no extra-base hits, and he's been a strong ground-ball pitcher across his three partial seasons in the minors. He drops in the rankings from last year because the probability of him holding up as a starter seems a lot lower now than it did last year, when he was still recovering from the surgery and we could talk about best-case scenarios for the recovery. In relief, however, a lefty with two plus pitches and a usable changeup is a potentially dominant weapon in any inning because of his ability to miss left-handed bats without a major platoon split.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:17 pm

His next 5 Tribe prospects are:

6. Abner Abreu, RF
7. Alex White, RHP
8. Nick Weglarz, LF
9. Jason Knapp, RHP
10. T.J. House, LHP
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:23 pm

TitoFrancona wrote:
Gotribe31 wrote: There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market.


Okay, I won't even go there. :hide:[/quote]

Good choice sir. ;-) ;) :wink:

A 2-year/$6million deal for Kendall is cause for upset. You have to agree it's night and day from a 1-year, $850k deal.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:32 pm

Peeker643 wrote:
Motherscratcher wrote:I hate to show my ignorance but I figure I'm not fooling anyone anyway so...

Who's dnosco?


You sir, are a heretic. ;-) ;) :wink:

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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby pup » Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:38 pm

Not sure how much "love" that really is.

One top 25
Two top 50
Three top 75

With 30 teams it sounds like that puts you right around the middle of the road prospects wise. Right where Markie likes his players. Average.

We traded 2 Cy Young Award winners in 12 months. Where are all of the guys we should have from that?
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Thu Jan 28, 2010 3:34 pm

Pup wrote:Not sure how much "love" that really is.

One top 25
Two top 50
Three top 75

With 30 teams it sounds like that puts you right around the middle of the road prospects wise. Right where Markie likes his players. Average.

We traded 2 Cy Young Award winners in 12 months. Where are all of the guys we should have from that?



Carrasco and Masterson would be on the list but they lost their prospect eligibility, Masterson probably before last season. Also to have 3 in the top 51 (and 4 in the top 75, not 3) when the average for 30 teams is 1.7 is pretty good. Also helps that the top 5 prospects are usually so far ahead of the rest of the list that just having 1 in your system will put you in the top half in baseball.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Thu Jan 28, 2010 3:49 pm

For comparison's sake here's Baseball Prospectus' list from 11/2009.


Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C

Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP

Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby KnightWhoSaysGIH » Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:01 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:
Pup wrote:Not sure how much "love" that really is.

One top 25
Two top 50
Three top 75

With 30 teams it sounds like that puts you right around the middle of the road prospects wise. Right where Markie likes his players. Average.

We traded 2 Cy Young Award winners in 12 months. Where are all of the guys we should have from that?



Carrasco and Masterson would be on the list but they lost their prospect eligibility, Masterson probably before last season. Also to have 3 in the top 51 (and 4 in the top 75, not 3) when the average for 30 teams is 1.7 is pretty good. Also helps that the top 5 prospects are usually so far ahead of the rest of the list that just having 1 in your system will put you in the top half in baseball.


Carrasco is still rookie eligible - Law famously doesn't think he has the head to be a SP (said as much in prior chats); and Law also doesn't like Knapp's arm in terms of durability. Of course, none of what the Phillies got for Lee made the top 100 either - there's just no indication Shapiro left value on the table, unless it just hasn't leaked. Which is possible.

Also, re:pup, LaPorta is not rookie eligible, so it's disingenuous to cite the CC trade. We knew at the time that trade was top heavy, but there were also no better deals out there for a half year of CC. Anyways, Brantley is on the list too, and you can't put a powerless OF any higher than Law did. (Compare Brantley to Ben Revere, who didn't even make the list)
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Thu Jan 28, 2010 7:28 pm

In Law's individual player rankings, he has Santana at #3, Chisenhall at #26, Rondon at #51, Brantley at #71 and Hagadone at #100.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby volunteerbrownie » Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:02 pm

Does anyone else think that Keith Law = Dennis Nosco. Same condescending attitude. Seems like a match to me. Just saying...
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Fri Jan 29, 2010 5:36 am

volunteerbrownie wrote:Does anyone else think that Keith Law = Dennis Nosco. Same condescending attitude. Seems like a match to me. Just saying...


Except that Dennis disagrees with pretty much everything Keith Law has ever said.

Head over to the IPI boards if you wanna see for yourself.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby gotribe31 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:11 am

Pup wrote:Not sure how much "love" that really is.

One top 25
Two top 50
Three top 75

With 30 teams it sounds like that puts you right around the middle of the road prospects wise. Right where Markie likes his players. Average.

We traded 2 Cy Young Award winners in 12 months. Where are all of the guys we should have from that?


One top 3 guy, which is a lot different than saying one top 25 guy
Two top 26, which is a lot different than 2 top 50
Four top 100, and plenty of depth below. BA, BP, and Law have all consistently talked about how deep the Indians system is, how many potential major leaguers are in the system. Very few teams have more than 4 or 5 top 100 guys. The overall strength of a system not built on top-100's alone. Its about having your 30th best prospect as a potential major league contributer, and not just an organizational depth type guy.

This is NOT a middle of the road system. Far from it. And it isn't just people in the organization who are saying so.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby gotribe31 » Fri Jan 29, 2010 9:12 am

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:For comparison's sake here's Baseball Prospectus' list from 11/2009.


Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Santana, C

Four-Star Prospects
2. Lonnie Chisenhall, SS
3. Alex White, RHP
4. Jason Knapp, RHP
5. Nick Hagadone, LHP

Three-Star Prospects
6. Hector Rondon, RHP
7. Lou Marson, C
8. Jason Kipnis, OF/2B
9. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
10. Michael Brantley, OF
11. Zach Putnam, RHP


Goldstein has also come back in past mailbags to say that he underrated Chisenhall at the time and now gives him a 5-star rating.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby hermanfontenot » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:10 pm

volunteerbrownie wrote:Does anyone else think that Keith Law = Dennis Nosco. Same condescending attitude. Seems like a match to me. Just saying...


I think he's a moron for ranking the Indians in the top five of anything. Not sure if that makes him similar to Nosco, though.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:13 pm

HermanFontenot wrote:
volunteerbrownie wrote:Does anyone else think that Keith Law = Dennis Nosco. Same condescending attitude. Seems like a match to me. Just saying...


I think he's a moron for ranking the Indians in the top five of anything. Not sure if that makes him similar to Nosco, though.



Just like a Cleveland fan to think he knows more than the guy whose job it is to know about every prospect in every team's system.
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby hermanfontenot » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:18 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:Just like a Cleveland fan to think he knows more than the guy whose job it is to know about every prospect in every team's system.


I've heard the whole "model organization" spiel before, thanks. Don't buy it.

But I know to Shapiro and his acolytes, a kick-ass farm-system ranking is all that matters, so go on wich yer bad selves.
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hermanfontenot
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Fri Jan 29, 2010 12:24 pm

HermanFontenot wrote:
rebelwithoutaclue wrote:Just like a Cleveland fan to think he knows more than the guy whose job it is to know about every prospect in every team's system.


I've heard the whole "model organization" spiel before, thanks. Don't buy it.

But I know to Shapiro and his acolytes, a kick-ass farm-system ranking is all that matters, so go on wich yer bad selves.



Love the black and white on the boards. I respect KLaw's opinion so I must be a Shap-acolyte. Don't care who picked 'em or how we got 'em. Just looking at the players and projections. To deny the talent is just hating.
Fuck the Browns...
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Re: 2010 Keith Law Organizational Rankings

Unread postby hermanfontenot » Fri Jan 29, 2010 3:44 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:Love the black and white on the boards. I respect KLaw's opinion so I must be a Shap-acolyte. Don't care who picked 'em or how we got 'em. Just looking at the players and projections. To deny the talent is just hating.


Fine. My bust for taking shots.
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