NHL Draft

[Squints]

Question for the hockey guys-

The Avalanche drafted a kid in the 2nd round by the name of Ryan O'Reilly who plays up here in Erie for the OHL team. My wife had him in class this year (OHL players at least attend high school) and by all accounts he's a hell of a kid- best player on the team, intelligent, polite and respectful in class and a natural leader.

So what are the odds that he plays in Cleveland next year? Not sure how the NHL works, do they develop like MLB or do they put their top prospects on the parent club? He just graduated so I'm guessing he's 18. In the OHL, you can keep a few over-age kis on each team, but I'm not sure how old is too old. Any ideas or educated guesses on where he plays next year would be great. Thanks

[skatingtripods]

Sorry I haven't picked up on a draft thread. I was in PIT for the Tribe debacle and working two long landscaping days the past two.

In any event, to answer your question, O'Reilly will probably be back in Erie next year. Most teams give kids two years to play in juniors or college and then make a decision from there. The AHL, pre-salary cap, had some restrictions on the players in the league. Teams are only allowed a certain number of kids under 20 on AHL rosters, but there are exceptions for foreign-born players (see Nikita Filatov with Columbus's Syracuse affiliate).

Realistically, the only upside to taking a kid out of juniors/college to play in the AHL is to have them play against men. The talent level is much higher in those junior leagues, but they're all kids. The AHL is littered with guys with NHL experience and that helps enhance the learning curve.

I will say this. Outside of Kevin Shattenkirk, Colorado doesn't have much help in the pipeline on D. O'Reilly's going to an organization where he should have a real shot to get substantial NHL time by 2012.

[Squints]

Thanks. You're pretty much right on. In yesterday's Erie paper Ryan did say that he would be in Erie "for sure" next year. The Colorado GM did say the he fits into the "character mold" that they are looking for. He's right. The kid is blaming himself for not getting picked in the first round even though he went where most people thought he would go, "I guess I didn't do enough to impress those teams throughout the year. That's my fault." Shows a sense of awareness and humility, not often seen at this age.

[gnati]

He is obligated by agreement to not be able to play in the AHL next year (unless his OHL season ends and there are still games going on in the AHL - then he can finish out the season with the AHL).

The AHL/CHL (OHL, WHL and QMJHL) have an agreement that players must turn 20 by Jan 1 of the year they are playing in order to play in the AHL. Filitov was allowed because he wasnt drafted into the OHL in the import draft* - the age restriction agreement is only between the CHL/AHL and doesnt apply to US College kids, USHL kids, Euro kids not drafted by AHL, etc. For example, Kyle Okposo I think played in the AHL at 19.

The agreement is in play, with the blessing of the NHL parent clubs, so that the AHL doesn't raid the OHL of its star players early which would impact the overall level of play in the CHL. It is still the primary feeder to the NHL and the clubs want to make sure it remains vibrant. Sort of the equivalent of the NFL not taking players from the NFL until after their junior year.

* Clarifying the Filatov thing - he was taken in the import draft, but it was after the Blue Jackets had drafted him and because the Blue Jackets drafted him when he was not in the CHL or under control of the CHL, there was no obligation that he play there instead of the AHL - that was up to the Blue Jackets. They choose AHL.

[Squints]

Bump. With an O'Reilly update. Knew he made the Avalanche, looked up his stats and he is 7th on the team in points, looks like he has played in every game. Happened to be listening to the Erie sports station today and they had the GM of the Erie Otters on and he was raving about this kid. My wife had him in school and confirmed this kid is high on character and a born leader. I might become an Avalanche fan. Did not see Forsberg, Sakic or Roy on any of the stats sheets

[Funky Cold Luis Medina]

The Avs have been a huge surprise this year. I never thought Craig Anderson would be a #1 goalie, but he's proving me wrong. In the long run, Matt Duchesne is going to be the best of the Big 3 of this past draft (Tavares, Hedman, and Duchesne).

I'm hoping for big things out of Dan Sexton in Anaheim. He was an undrafted free agent out of Bowling Green, and played a year of juniors with the team I work with here in Texas. No one expected him to be anywhere above the AHL this year, and even started the season with Bakersfield in the ECHL. He got called up in December and is 12th among rookies in scoring, 8-8-16. But I should also mention he's done that in only 23 games, less than half as many as 8 of the players above him on the leaderboard. If he had been called up st the start of the season and started on the same pace, he would be 2nd among rookies in goals and points right now.