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Week 1 CFB

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Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Sep 01, 2009 6:59 pm

Finally, the betting season is back upon us.

With so much turnover, it's a tough week for CFB bets. What's everybody like so far?

I've gotta say that I'm really hoping to lock in CMU at +14 against Arizona. Line on my book has been fluctuating all week so far between 13.5 and 14. Also diggin' Oklahoma St. -5.5 against Georgia with a lot of turnover.

My wildcard might even be CMU outright, awesome value at +425.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Sep 01, 2009 11:41 pm

CMU on the moneyline. Wow. That'd be a hell of a gambling season lid-lifter.

Have my picks later in the week, but I have to say there are quite a few Ohio teams that appear to be in trouble on Saturday. There's some in state hope in the Thursday tilts, but don't be a homer on Saturday.

Also, for a moneyline opener, trying to figure out Missouri getting a TD from the Illlini. That one has the Lead Man's attention.

A double digit dog that can win is New Mexico.

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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby swerb » Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:23 am

Lead Pipe wrote:Also, for a moneyline opener, trying to figure out Missouri getting a TD from the Illlini. That one has the Lead Man's attention.

That's one I am honing in on as well. Think the Illini (and Zook) are overrated this season. They lost a lot, but bring back their name skill position guys like Juice Williams, Benn, and Dufrene. So I think people and the public, will overrate them early. I see good value fading the Illini the first couple weeks. Also, Dufrene ain't gonna play this week it looks like now.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:20 am

Lead Pipe wrote:CMU on the moneyline. Wow. That'd be a hell of a gambling season lid-lifter.

Have my picks later in the week, but I have to say there are quite a few Ohio teams that appear to be in trouble on Saturday. There's some in state hope in the Thursday tilts, but don't be a homer on Saturday.

Also, for a moneyline opener, trying to figure out Missouri getting a TD from the Illlini. That one has the Lead Man's attention.

A double digit dog that can win is New Mexico.

It's the most wonderful time of the year.


Why is that Illinios spread getting your attention? I think they probably should be getting more from the illini.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:23 am

Skating Tripods wrote:Finally, the betting season is back upon us.

With so much turnover, it's a tough week for CFB bets. What's everybody like so far?

I've gotta say that I'm really hoping to lock in CMU at +14 against Arizona. Line on my book has been fluctuating all week so far between 13.5 and 14. Also diggin' Oklahoma St. -5.5 against Georgia with a lot of turnover.

My wildcard might even be CMU outright, awesome value at +425.


I don't think UGA has had as much turnover as you are thinking. My gut says they win outright. I'm not so hip on Big twelve teams OOC unless its to play mid-majors.

First game of the year and OKie St will face the best Oline they will see all year, and probably the 2nd toughest D.

Anyways,

I like WMU at +13.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:02 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:There's some in state hope in the Thursday tilts, but don't be a homer on Saturday.


I've been thinking about BG outright. They're +7.5 now. Sounds like you're open to that idea as well.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Wed Sep 02, 2009 12:10 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:
Lead Pipe wrote:There's some in state hope in the Thursday tilts, but don't be a homer on Saturday.


I've been thinking about BG outright. They're +7.5 now. Sounds like you're open to that idea as well.


I've thought about laying something on either Oregon, UGA, or Baylor to win outright.

I like VT +7 but I can't bring myself to lay anything down on it.

Oregon +4
WMU +13
VT +7
Illinios -6.5
Minny -6.5
UGA +5
UT/ West K under 45
USC/San Jose under 48

Those are the ones I like offhand
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:39 pm

JCoz wrote:Minny -6.5


Damn. Best I've seen Minny at is -8. I'd love them at -6.5.

For the life of me, I don't think I can see Cincy/Rutgers going over 48.5.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:25 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:
JCoz wrote:Minny -6.5


Damn. Best I've seen Minny at is -8. I'd love them at -6.5.

For the life of me, I don't think I can see Cincy/Rutgers going over 48.5.


Still at -6.5 at bookmaker.

They pulled the UGA/Okie St game, BTW. Some legs to this robinson injury rumor....
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:19 pm

JCoz wrote:
Skating Tripods wrote:
JCoz wrote:Minny -6.5


Damn. Best I've seen Minny at is -8. I'd love them at -6.5.

For the life of me, I don't think I can see Cincy/Rutgers going over 48.5.


Still at -6.5 at bookmaker.

They pulled the UGA/Okie St game, BTW. Some legs to this robinson injury rumor....


Still -8 at BetUS. The UGA/OKST game is down to OKST -5. It was as high as 6.

I'm pissed off that I didn't lock in Tulsa at -13.5. It's up to -15 already.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby swerb » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:11 pm

Like NC State. This year, and tomorrow night -5. Just put in a play on em.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 02, 2009 11:46 pm

I decided to jump on Boise St. -3. I think Kellen Moore's the difference in this game and he'll protect the ball better than Masoli and Oregon might be without three linemen.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Guest » Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:13 am

OkSt with lots of problems heading into the Ga tilt.

Starting senior LB Orie Lemon tore his ACL Monday and is done. Starting TE Jamal Mosley left the team for personal reasons.

Others in trouble with the law:

http://www.stwnewspress.com/osusports/l ... 13550.html

http://www.newsok.com/cowboys-fall-back ... tory_title

Internet rumor was going around about OkSt QB Zac Robinson being injured, but multiple reports from Ok newspapers shot that down.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:02 am

GodHatesClevelandSports wrote:OkSt with lots of problems heading into the Ga tilt.

Starting senior LB Orie Lemon tore his ACL Monday and is done. Starting TE Jamal Mosley left the team for personal reasons.

Others in trouble with the law:

http://www.stwnewspress.com/osusports/l ... 13550.html

http://www.newsok.com/cowboys-fall-back ... tory_title

Internet rumor was going around about OkSt QB Zac Robinson being injured, but multiple reports from Ok newspapers shot that down.


There has to be some reason why it was pulled off the books yesterday at many places.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:03 am

I'm thinking about taking WMU and CMU outright in a $5 parlay. $132 if they both hit.

Someone talk me out of it. Or convince me to do it.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Thu Sep 03, 2009 12:14 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:I'm thinking about taking WMU and CMU outright in a $5 parlay. $132 if they both hit.

Someone talk me out of it. Or convince me to do it.


Call me crazy, but I don't think CMU has a prayer going cross country this week.

WMU has a shot, Baylor has a shot, Oregon has a shot, UGA has a shot and VT has a slim shot.

If you want to take a flier on a 5 dollar underdog ML bet, I'd take 2-3 out of those. I just don't think CMU has enough of a chance to win, but that's just my .02.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:12 pm

Ball State -16 this evening.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:24 pm

I'm with you Pipe. Boise St. -3 and NC St. -4.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:38 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:I'm with you Pipe. Boise St. -3 and NC St. -4.


Awful so far
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:43 pm

This SC/NCSU game has been brutal to watch.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:51 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:
Lead Pipe wrote:There's some in state hope in the Thursday tilts, but don't be a homer on Saturday.


I've been thinking about BG outright. They're +7.5 now. Sounds like you're open to that idea as well.


And they lead 24-14 with 7:19 left. Son of a bitch.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:54 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:This SC/NCSU game has been brutal to watch.


Awful. Painful. Wilson is terrible.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:58 pm

And BG wins 31-14. Always the games you don't bet.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:29 pm

This Boise game should not even be close. It should be 21-0 at least.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Sep 04, 2009 9:38 am

Skating Tripods wrote:This Boise game should not even be close. It should be 21-0 at least.


This was just one of those early season inside-out games.

The logic was there, the returning Oregon O, the depleted BSU D. BSU never having hosted a ranked team with Oregon coming in with a revenge factor.

No matter if you thought Boise would cover, no one had this game figured out.

Not one single person would have predicted a BSU win with only 19 points on the board.

And Oregon not getting a 1st down in 3 quarters is just impossible.

But bottom line was Boise kicked thier ass, particularly with thier offensive line, which basically manhandled the Oregon defensive front from the get go, even when thier legs were fresh. I thought Oregon was terrible on O more so than Boise dominating. They played with allot of intensity, but I saw some poor offensive play from Oregon.

You could see where this game was going in one quarter.

Might be some let down next week with all the emotion in this game.

Oh well, you win some, you lose some.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:34 am

Tulsa/ Tulane under 63. Two new starting QBs.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:43 am

Erie Warrior wrote:Tulsa/ Tulane under 63. Two new starting QBs.


After watching Ball State choke and North Texas surprise everybody, I'm avoiding this game.

I'll spend the day looking over Saturday's lines.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:11 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:
After watching Ball State choke and North Texas surprise everybody, I'm avoiding this game.

I'll spend the day looking over Saturday's lines.


I spent a long time looking at the -15. Tulane will be better, Tulsa won't.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:25 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:Tulsa/ Tulane under 63. Two new starting QBs.


Nice play.

I'll decide in the morning what I'm doing.

Thinking that I can't see UGA/OKST going over 60.5. Still like CMU. I want that line to move back to +14 so that I have a better chance at a push, worst case scenario. Like WMU at +13 too.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:27 pm

Just curious, what's everyone's overall feeling on Nevada + 15 at ND?
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 05, 2009 4:59 am

Skating Tripods wrote:Just curious, what's everyone's overall feeling on Nevada + 15 at ND?


Almost grabbed it last night. I'll look at it again this afternoon. Nevada is better than many people think. It already moved to 14.5 on Betus. I took Bama -7.5 tonight.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby paddio » Sat Sep 05, 2009 8:48 am

I like

Baylor +2.5
Va Tech +7(bought the hook)

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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 05, 2009 10:58 am

2 line parlay of UGA/OKST u60 and BAY/WF o53.5

WMU +13
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:13 am

Charleston Southern +61.5
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:17 am

Just added Nevada +14.5. I think they can easily keep it within 2 TD. If it was 13.5, I might have passed.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Doc » Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:56 am

Took UGA, Mizzou, and CMU to win on a $5 parlay. You guys have made pretty convincing arguments above for them.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 05, 2009 3:13 pm

I got Illinois under 33 (team total).
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 05, 2009 11:57 pm

Ended up ok. 5-2 for the weekend, up a few bucks. Football rules....
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Sep 06, 2009 11:34 am

I tried to make my money back throwing $5 on CMU outright. Their offense was incredibly inept.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Sep 08, 2009 10:31 am

Erie Warrior wrote:Ended up ok. 5-2 for the weekend, up a few bucks. Football rules....


Not bad. I had the worst opening week I can remember. BSU/Oregon was flukey, but I tanked on several after that. Just poor anticipation. Have to start over this week.
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Re: Week 1 CFB

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Sep 08, 2009 12:33 pm

I went 3-4.

Wins: UGA/OKST u60, Boise -3, Mississippi -19
Losses: BAY/WF o53.5, Nevada +15, WMU +13, CMU outright

The losses were $10 of free play and $10 of my own money, so I actually came out down 92 cents for the opening weekend.
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