Another Amare post

[aoxo1]

Yeah yeah, stfu, I'm starting another post. I know there are 3 threads going with this right now, but there is a lot of stuff being discussed both pro and con, it is intermixed with a million one liners, and there is no real talking about how Amare would actually fit in here either than "WE'LL BE UNSTOPPABLE ON OFFENSE!" or "AMARE GIVES UP AS MANY AS HE SCORES, THATS NOT PLAYOFF CHAMPIONSHIP BASKETBALL!".

SO, I'm going to write out my thoughts on as many of the different things as I can remember, and I encourage everyone to just agree wholeheartedly with them and posting will probably stop for the next week as everything correct will have already been said. Or, we can have one thread for more substantive discussion.

1) How will Amare fit in the offense? Can he get enough shots to be kept happy?

Right now our starting lineup with Amare will be Mo, Redz, LBJ, Amare, and LeBron. We'll have Boobie, Ben, and Sasha off the bench for sure. Wally may be back. Andy may be gone. It is possible there is a 2/3 coming our way in the trade as well, but let's ignore it. So how does this break down?

Amare is going to get a lot of looks. It is pointless to bring him in anyways. So we can expect him to score 20-25 per game. Mo, I think, will see about the same number as before and be in that 15-20 ppg range. My guess is LBJ becomes slightly more of a facilitator. We heard for years how LeBron doesn't want to be a 30/7/7 guy but would prefer to be a 25/10/7 guy. But that hasn't been possible. Well, with this trade it is. So that's 60-65 points we are looking at between our 3 primary options. That is not unreasonable, and it would not unreasonable for them to average upwards of 70-75 ppg. Who else needs buckets? Delonte is a 10 ppg guy; he doesn't care. Z doesn't care. He is a 10 guy also. We're not around 80-85 points. That leaves 15-20 ppg for the bench. What do you know? That's almost exactly right for what we will have coming off of it. Plus he fills the 1 scoring need they have with the evaporation of Z's post game and LeBron's refusal to do more than pay lip service to developing one. We've seen what happens when the shots stop falling. LeBron pounds the ball into the floor and everything stagnates. They can go 5 or 6 or 7 minutes with hardly a bucket. This is because they don't get easy buckets unless they are spacing the floor well, which they don't if a couple guys go cold.

Amare fits into the offense very well. Before this year, the only play it seemed like they ever ran was the pick and roll with LeBron and Andy. Amare is a 1000x upgrade over Andy in this situation. When LeBron comes off the floor, Mo can run it just as well. With everyone spacing the floor on this team except for LeBron and Z, the paint is wide open for Amare to wreak havoc. You think LeBron looks good moving without the ball this year? Just wait until you see the dunk parade Amare throws down when it's the first 6 minutes of the 2nd quarter, LeBron is on the bench, and he is on the floor with Mo, West/Boobie, Sasha/Wally, and Z all camping out 15+ ft from the basket.

The other thing to keep in mind is that besides LeBron, we have no one that threatens opposing bigs with foul trouble. Amare changes that equation.

Apparently if this trade happens, it is because Amare wants to come here and will sign an extension. If this happens, it is a foregone conclusion that LeBron stays in Cleveland unless things collapse. Amare will not sign a long term deal if he knows the King is leaving. He will not be a cancer.

2) How will Amare look on defense? Is this just a move for the regular season?

No one is going to doubt that Amare is a revolving door. But LeBron willed a team with Drew Gooden to the finals. Amare is not a goofball on the level of Gooden. Pup has brought up Amare vs Duncan as evidence that this won't help us win a championship. But that's not quite right. Duncan is the greatest PF of all time. To complain about Amare not getting the Suns to the finals is mind numbing. He nearly carried that Suns team past the Spurs when he averaged nearly 40 ppg against Duncan. The other time they lost was absolute horseshit, when Horry nearly killed Nash. And we are supposed to be mad that Amare got up for that? That's passion, not disinterest, and I'll take it any day of the week.

But how good are we on defense at PF right now? Ben Wallace and Andy Varejao were absolutely abused by the Lakers. So was Zydrunas. We can beat the Celtics, they don't have those athletic bigs. Odom and Gasol are an absolute mismatch for everyone on the roster. If they get Bynum back, that's just more trouble. Against other teams, Z and Ben can combine to cover up a lot of Amare's deficiencies, as Z did with Gooden. Andy, if he stays, does the same thing.

It's an open question how good our defense will be with Amare. But the upgrade on offense is sorely needed, especially as it seems like Z is not going to be at 100% the rest of the season and Andy has not shown the same offensive game it looked like he might be developing early in the season.

3) Is it worth giving up JJ?

Yes. You always flip far off potential for right now ability. Especially when you have had a thread previously about "What is JJ's upside?" And someone (hmm, I don't know!) said "A poor man's Amare is his ceiling" and people went yeah, hmm, that sounds right, probably not quite as good as Amare but still good!

Someone said they would be so disappointed if JJ is an all star in 5 years and we have nothing to show for this. Really? So we are worried about 5 years from now? Ferry will have many more moves to make in the next 5 years to change this team.

4) What about other trades there were supposed to put teams over the top? Iverson, Carter?

Each deal needs to be evaluated on its own merits and none are a sure thing. So let's look at the two that were brought up.

Carter was a malcontent who basically refused to play. He was brought in to be the #1 star on a team, when it was known he didn't really care about basketball as much as you might like. What about Amare? He seems a little pouty right now, but I never heard that before. He is still going out and playing hard. He is not being brought in to be the #1 guy. He is being brought in to be the #2/3 guy to a team with an established culture of winning playoff series. There is not any chance he will have illusions about being #1 on this team.

Iverson was an aging star who dominated the ball and was never a particularly good fit. While he is one of the greats, everyone should have known he needs a certain kind of team to succeed. That kind of team being one with 4 defense first starters playing next to him who basically defer to him being the entire offense himself. He is capable of making a team like that a middle of the pack offensive team, but he just doesn't fit in otherwise. Note that he never had much success after Larry Brown left Philly, either.

Other deals people point to:
Kevin Garnett: obviously not the same. Someone posted about Amare not being a KG. But WTF? Of course he isn't, and he doesn't need to be. KG had to change the entire culture of the team and lead them. Amare needs to fit in and dunk the basketball.
Rasheed Wallace: this is close, but not quite the same. Both guys went to existing teams that may have been legitimate title contenders. Both guys were among the most talented players in the association. The difference, of course, is Rasheed is the ultimate anti-star, in that he doesn't want to be the focus ever.

5) Wah wah I want Bosh instead.

Yeah, join the club. But this is what's available. To pass on it because there is a 10% chance you might be able to trade for of sign Bosh at some indeterminate future date is nuts. I'd also love Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

6) What if we don't do it?

Well, there could be another trade this year or next. But if there isn't this year, then we lose Wally's expiring contract and the chance it gives us to upgrade the team. Wally is another case of hometown fans being homers and overvaluing someone way too much. If I have to read another post about how trading Wally for Amare hurts our defense I am going to puke.

So we lose Wally as a chip to improve if we don't. Well, we can still make a trade next year. Maybe, maybe not. How do we know who will be available? What will we have to give up for them? What if JJ doesn't improve, and he has zero value at this time next year? There may be other teams involved besides us and Chicago next year, this time with significantly better assets than what we have.

7) Conclusions

I like the trade! It provides us with a young big who is awesome, which we don't have. I previously mentioned this team needs JJ to turn into the #2 option within a few years for them to continue to be title contenders. Well, JJ turning into Amare right now accomplishes that.

It gives us another scoring option in the paint besides LeBron, and someone who can actually play in the post.

It gives us someone who can draw some fouls.

It upgrades our athleticism.

It downgrades our defense, but not as much as the team with Donyell and Gooden playing big minutes at the 4. Plus Wally isn't doing anything to help our defense anyways.

It gets us a ton of value for Wally's contract, instead of just letting it go off the books for nothing.

It puts pressure on Gasol/Odom when we're on offense, which we currently don't do.

If the rumors are true, then it brings us a guy who WANTS to come here over anywhere else. Seems like the chemistry will not be adversely affected.

It actually allows us to get LeBron and another one of the 2010 big time FAs, which I know everyone was pumped for but probably wasn't happening.

All that and he brings rebounding.



Anyone else have some long form thoughts?

[GreatGoo]

aoxo1 - awesome write-up. I couldnt agree more. If the cavs have a chance to get Amare they have to pull the trigger.

[drewd]

i know u wrote alot in this but,,,,,,

IBTL

[Bill the Butcher]

Honest to gosh, I just read your conclusions... and I like them alot.

Get Amare.

[waborat]

It gives us someone who can draw some fouls.

and actually hit free throws afterwards

This guys shooting percentage is so ridiculous that I'm willing to give up a few "revolving door" plays at the defensive end...I would also think that with as good as the rest of the team plays such tough D that maybe he won't have a smany opportunities to get into his early foul trouble and actually increase his minutes on the court...it seems like when PHO got Shaq that this was the case from a year ago...he's a specimen that should be playing in the high 30's each night and he averages about .9 pts per minute...how does an opposing team defend LBJ, AS, Mo, Z & Redz at the same time? You can't

BTW, great post Aox, I hope we get him now so you didn't just waste your saturday afternoon with all of that typing?

[pup]

So everyone would be OK with LeBron jumping off the bench to protect Mo, even if it meant costing us a trip to the Finals? Really? For some reason I see that causing the most epic meltdown in the history of TCF. People would be killing him.

And Amare averaging 40 versus Duncan. Fantastic. How many did Duncan get right back? How many boards did Amare grab versus Duncan?

As I said, if Ferry thinks it will work, he has gained my confidence.

That doesn't mean I like the move. Just that I trust Ferry to make the decision. If he believes Amare can suddenly care enough to play defense, then I guess I will buy in.

[Madre Hill, Superstar]

Someone said they would be so disappointed if JJ is an all star in 5 years and we have nothing to show for this. Really? So we are worried about 5 years from now? Ferry will have many more moves to make in the next 5 years to change this team.

How long do you think Lebron will wait to hang around before we start winning trophies? That's what I mean by 'nothing to show'. If Amare can bring home the hardware, booyah. If not, um, that's not a good sign.

There is not any chance he will have illusions about being #1 on this team.

That's not my worry. My worry is what attitude he takes to the Cavs and Mike Brown's commitment to defense? How well does he adapt to being #2 to the King? I hate to bring up Larry Hughes, but he too knew he wasn't #1.

That kind of team being one with 4 defense first starters playing next to him who basically defer to him being the entire offense himself.

The question is: Is Amare the same guy who needs a Seven Seconds team or can he adapt to a slower defensive-oriented team like the Cavs? So far, the prospects really aren't that encouraging. It hasn't even been a year since D'Antoni left the desert and already Amare is being offered for cap relief and lower tier prospects like JJ Hickson / Theo Sflobbklkdsf - and that's even with Porter's head on the block. Why now and not next February? That's what's disturbing to me. Something just doesn't smell right.

(And no, I'm not buying Sarver Is A Cheap Fuck. Kerr swapped four years of Diaw and two of Bell for three of J-Rich. They're comfortably under the luxury tax for the near future.)

It downgrades our defense, but not as much as the team with Donyell and Gooden playing big minutes at the 4. Plus Wally isn't doing anything to help our defense anyways.

Remind me how well we did against the Spurs with Donyell and Gooden. A post presence and upgrade to athleticism is good, but as far as pushing us over the top in a seven game series against the C's and Lakers, I stand by the dictum that Defense Wins Championships. If Amare buys into Brown's coaching, I can see it. I'm just not that convinced that he will.

[GreatGoo]

Someone said they would be so disappointed if JJ is an all star in 5 years and we have nothing to show for this. Really? So we are worried about 5 years from now? Ferry will have many more moves to make in the next 5 years to change this team.

How long do you think Lebron will wait to hang around before we start winning trophies? That's what I mean by 'nothing to show'. If Amare can bring home the hardware, booyah. If not, um, that's not a good sign.

There is not any chance he will have illusions about being #1 on this team.

That's not my worry. My worry is what attitude he takes to the Cavs and Mike Brown's commitment to defense? How well does he adapt to being #2 to the King? I hate to bring up Larry Hughes, but he too knew he wasn't #1.

That kind of team being one with 4 defense first starters playing next to him who basically defer to him being the entire offense himself.

The question is: Is Amare the same guy who needs a Seven Seconds team or can he adapt to a slower defensive-oriented team like the Cavs? So far, the prospects really aren't that encouraging. It hasn't even been a year since D'Antoni left the desert and already Amare is being offered for cap relief and lower tier prospects like JJ Hickson / Theo Sflobbklkdsf - and that's even with Porter's head on the block. Why now and not next February? That's what's disturbing to me. Something just doesn't smell right.

(And no, I'm not buying Sarver Is A Cheap Fuck. Kerr swapped four years of Diaw and two of Bell for three of J-Rich. They're comfortably under the luxury tax for the near future.)

It downgrades our defense, but not as much as the team with Donyell and Gooden playing big minutes at the 4. Plus Wally isn't doing anything to help our defense anyways.

Remind me how well we did against the Spurs with Donyell and Gooden. A post presence and upgrade to athleticism is good, but as far as pushing us over the top in a seven game series against the C's and Lakers, I stand by the dictum that Defense Wins Championships. If Amare buys into Brown's coaching, I can see it. I'm just not that convinced that he will.

You might want to change the subtitle under your user name. Geesh.

[Bill the Butcher]

I wonder if Ferry can interview Amare... like a job interview.

[aoxo1]

Someone said they would be so disappointed if JJ is an all star in 5 years and we have nothing to show for this. Really? So we are worried about 5 years from now? Ferry will have many more moves to make in the next 5 years to change this team.

How long do you think Lebron will wait to hang around before we start winning trophies? That's what I mean by 'nothing to show'. If Amare can bring home the hardware, booyah. If not, um, that's not a good sign.

I agree, how long do YOU think LeBron will wait to hang around? That's what we are worried about, and you are using it as an argument to keep JJ and not get Amare?

There is not any chance he will have illusions about being #1 on this team.

That's not my worry. My worry is what attitude he takes to the Cavs and Mike Brown's commitment to defense? How well does he adapt to being #2 to the King? I hate to bring up Larry Hughes, but he too knew he wasn't #1.

That is always going to be a concern when there is a guy brought it. But, from the rumors, Amare wants to come here over Chicago or somewhere else he might be the guy. LeBron is big enough at this point that I think anyone besides Kobe or Wade would be nuts to not realize they are playing 2nd fiddle. Also, Hughes was obviously never in Amare's class. That was the big problem: he just sucked. Well, that and the injuries.

That kind of team being one with 4 defense first starters playing next to him who basically defer to him being the entire offense himself.

The question is: Is Amare the same guy who needs a Seven Seconds team or can he adapt to a slower defensive-oriented team like the Cavs? So far, the prospects really aren't that encouraging. It hasn't even been a year since D'Antoni left the desert and already Amare is being offered for cap relief and lower tier prospects like JJ Hickson / Theo Sflobbklkdsf - and that's even with Porter's head on the block. Why now and not next February? That's what's disturbing to me. Something just doesn't smell right.

(And no, I'm not buying Sarver Is A Cheap Fuck. Kerr swapped four years of Diaw and two of Bell for three of J-Rich. They're comfortably under the luxury tax for the near future.)

Amare is still putting up great numbers under a team with an awful coach.

And you should be buying that Sarver Is A Cheap Fuck. Dude has been selling off draft picks and refusing to pay the tax for years despite having one of the top teams in the league. This isn't even an open question at this point.

It downgrades our defense, but not as much as the team with Donyell and Gooden playing big minutes at the 4. Plus Wally isn't doing anything to help our defense anyways.

Remind me how well we did against the Spurs with Donyell and Gooden. A post presence and upgrade to athleticism is good, but as far as pushing us over the top in a seven game series against the C's and Lakers, I stand by the dictum that Defense Wins Championships. If Amare buys into Brown's coaching, I can see it. I'm just not that convinced that he will.

I obviously agree with you that Defense Wins Championships. My point was that we made it to the finals while getting almost no offense or defense out of the 4 spot. It would be nice to have a threat down low. We have good to excellent defenders at every other spot on the roster (besides Wally).

There is no perfect move out there. The question is: does this have a high likelihood of significantly improving the team? I think it's obvious that it does.

[aoxo1]

So everyone would be OK with LeBron jumping off the bench to protect Mo, even if it meant costing us a trip to the Finals? Really? For some reason I see that causing the most epic meltdown in the history of TCF. People would be killing him.

And Amare averaging 40 versus Duncan. Fantastic. How many did Duncan get right back? How many boards did Amare grab versus Duncan?

As I said, if Ferry thinks it will work, he has gained my confidence.

That doesn't mean I like the move. Just that I trust Ferry to make the decision. If he believes Amare can suddenly care enough to play defense, then I guess I will buy in.

No, obviously I think it is stupid, especially now that everyone knows what the result would be.

At the time, everyone was way more pissed at David Stern basically taking a guillotine to the Suns that year.

And actually, if Kevin Garnett breaks LeBron's nose randomly at half court, then yeah, I'm not going to kill any of our guys that get off the bench to defend him. I might be pissed they get suspended, but I'll save my anger for KG and the idiotic rule.

Here's Amare's #s for the 04-05 series:
41/37/34/31/42
9/8/11/5/16
1/0/2/1/4

Here's Duncan's #s:
28/30/33/15/31
15/8/15/16/15
2/1/0/3/2/3

Wow! Amare sure got worked over by the greatest PF ever!

[pup]

You forgot to post wins and losses.

Once he outrebounded Duncan. Sure he scored more points. Never disputed that. What that doesn't mention is how many time Duncan stayed one on one on defense, and how many times Phoenix had to double Duncan to keep those numbers where they are. And how many wide open looks needing to double Duncan got the rest of the Spurs.

[aoxo1]

You forgot to post wins and losses.

Once he outrebounded Duncan. Sure he scored more points. Never disputed that. What that doesn't mention is how many time Duncan stayed one on one on defense, and how many times Phoenix had to double Duncan to keep those numbers where they are. And how many wide open looks needing to double Duncan got the rest of the Spurs.

You're right. We ought to trade LeBron. At least Amare's team took a game from the Spurs.

After all, just about everyone can average nearly 40 against Tim Duncan in the playoffs.

Or we can recognize that it's a team game and San Antonio had a better team than Phoenix with a better coach and not pin all the blame on Amare.

But yeah, I'm sure SA saw Amare throwing up 35+ and said, "Meh, whatever, let's play him 1 on 1!!!!!"

[pup]

You forgot to post wins and losses.

Once he outrebounded Duncan. Sure he scored more points. Never disputed that. What that doesn't mention is how many time Duncan stayed one on one on defense, and how many times Phoenix had to double Duncan to keep those numbers where they are. And how many wide open looks needing to double Duncan got the rest of the Spurs.

You're right. We ought to trade LeBron. At least Amare's team took a game from the Spurs.

After all, just about everyone can average nearly 40 against Tim Duncan in the playoffs.

Or we can recognize that it's a team game and San Antonio had a better team than Phoenix with a better coach and not pin all the blame on Amare.

But yeah, I'm sure SA saw Amare throwing up 35+ and said, "Meh, whatever, let's play him 1 on 1!!!!!"

You are killing me smalls.

Cavs minus LBJ versus the Spurs. Really? That is your take? A team that would win 8 games without James that year. Thought you were better than that. A Spurs team whose entire defensive game plan was to clog the lane to keep LeBron from the rim and force him into a passer...to pass to guys who gets hit their keyboards with drool staring at a naked Pam Anderson in her day?

If you don't think the Spurs basically said exactly what you say in your post about Amare, then I got nothing for you. If you don't think the defensive game plans for the 2 series were polar opposites, I got nothing for you. Keep LeBron in check, out of the lane and force him to pass. Versus don't let Phoneix get crazy from the three point line, so let Amare get his but keep the shooters in check. Not even a possibility?

I am not blaming Amare for losing that series. Never have. Simply can't give him credit for winning it, since he didn't win it. No matter what his "numbers" were. Which is my point all along.

[aoxo1]

You forgot to post wins and losses.

Once he outrebounded Duncan. Sure he scored more points. Never disputed that. What that doesn't mention is how many time Duncan stayed one on one on defense, and how many times Phoenix had to double Duncan to keep those numbers where they are. And how many wide open looks needing to double Duncan got the rest of the Spurs.

You're right. We ought to trade LeBron. At least Amare's team took a game from the Spurs.

After all, just about everyone can average nearly 40 against Tim Duncan in the playoffs.

Or we can recognize that it's a team game and San Antonio had a better team than Phoenix with a better coach and not pin all the blame on Amare.

But yeah, I'm sure SA saw Amare throwing up 35+ and said, "Meh, whatever, let's play him 1 on 1!!!!!"

You are killing me smalls.

Cavs minus LBJ versus the Spurs. Really? That is your take? A team that would win 8 games without James that year. Thought you were better than that. A Spurs team whose entire defensive game plan was to clog the lane to keep LeBron from the rim and force him into a passer...to pass to guys who gets hit their keyboards with drool staring at a naked Pam Anderson in her day?

If you don't think the Spurs basically said exactly what you say in your post about Amare, then I got nothing for you. If you don't think the defensive game plans for the 2 series were polar opposites, I got nothing for you. Keep LeBron in check, out of the lane and force him to pass. Versus don't let Phoneix get crazy from the three point line, so let Amare get his but keep the shooters in check. Not even a possibility?

I am not blaming Amare for losing that series. Never have. Simply can't give him credit for winning it, since he didn't win it. No matter what his "numbers" were. Which is my point all along.

Just to sum up several hundred words in 2 lines:
My take: getting 40 per vs Tim Duncan is damn impressive, regardless.
Your take: meh, they let him and he was probably giving up more than that.

Whatever, we're not going anywhere at this point. We've both said our piece.

You and I are the opposite of e0 and myself =/