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Bracket Thoughts?

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Bracket Thoughts?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Sun Mar 12, 2006 11:34 pm

For the 2nd year in a row those MFers put my two top teams in the same freaking region (Duke & Texas this year; last year it was Illinois & OSU).

Early on, I'm looking at:

Texas
Kansas
UConn
anOSU

in the final four, with:

Texas over UConn in the final.

After choosing between Duke & Texas, anOSU is clearly the biggest question mark for me, but with Nova looking more vulnerable ("kid, you'll shoot your eye out!"), I don't really like anyone else in that region. Florida may very well be anOSU's biggest threat.

Anyone & everyone, please share your thoughts. Up until this weekend, I'd watched a total of about 10 minutes of NCAA basketball this year.
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Unread postby furls » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:20 am

My initial thoughts....

Memphis will lose in the sweet sixteen.

Buckeyes got a tough draw, it will be tough for them to get to the elite 8, but I am hoping. Georgetown was a miserable draw for them matchupwise. I am just hoping they start shooting sometime soon.

The pundits are guessing all 4 #1s will make the final four. I think two might if they are lucky. Duke has a rough bracket and things get very difficult for them once they get to the sweet 16 too.

UConn has a pretty easy road until they run into MSU or NC (pbly NC) in the elite 8.

Villanova will is gonna have a rough time in the sweet 16, but they should make the elite 8. They are going to get either syracuse or BC in the sweet 16, and while both teams have a shot nova should be too much for them.
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:25 am

Furls wrote:Buckeyes got a tough draw, it will be tough for them to get to the elite 8, but I am hoping. Georgetown was a miserable draw for them matchupwise. I am just hoping they start shooting sometime soon.


What about Georgetown makes them an especially tough matchup for the Buckeyes in Round 2?

As far as I can tell, looking at the #2 seeds, only the Vols got a better draw than the Buckeyes.
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Unread postby consigliere » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:26 am

I don't see a dominant team....so no way all 4 #1 make the Final Four. To me, anyone in the top 10-15 can beat anyone.

I actually like the Bucks draw.....they play in Dayton, which is a huge advantage to get in the Sweet 16. Nova doesn't scare me a bit. The ky, obviously, with OSU is to start hitting those 3s. If they shoot like they have been, at best, they make the Sweet 16 then bow out.....but if they can start stroking them consistently, I like the Bucks to actually challenge to win this thing. Seriously.
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Unread postby furls » Mon Mar 13, 2006 12:39 am

I like the Bucks to compete once they get past Georgetown. Georgetown is definetly underrated at 7. The reason i say that they are a tough draw for the bucks is it is their size. They have 3 players on their team that are Dials size or larger, and they all average over 10 points per game. Teams with this much size give the Buckeyes headaches (Iowa today and a couple months ago). In order to beat these teams they need great offense out of their guards and that has really been rather absent as of late.

MSU and Michigan are pretty big upfront but the Bucks shot well from 3 against both of them. Other than that, their success against big teams has not been great.
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Unread postby pup » Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:09 am

Biggest upsets:

Wisconsin/Arizona winner (I think Zona) over Villanova in round 2.
A&M over Syracuse
Wisconsin Milwaukee over Oklahoma
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Unread postby johnnyo » Mon Mar 13, 2006 7:41 am

My final four:

Duke
Gonzaga
UConn
Villanova

UConn over Duke in the final.

Damn the Big East is tough.
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Unread postby swerb » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:53 am

Quick first reaction ...

I agree with my boy Dukie V.

Duke, UCLA, UConn, Boston College

UConn beats Duke in the final

More analysis coming later today.
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Unread postby comish » Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:23 am

Furls wrote:I like the Bucks to compete once they get past Georgetown. Georgetown is definetly underrated at 7. The reason i say that they are a tough draw for the bucks is it is their size. They have 3 players on their team that are Dials size or larger, and they all average over 10 points per game. Teams with this much size give the Buckeyes headaches (Iowa today and a couple months ago). In order to beat these teams they need great offense out of their guards and that has really been rather absent as of late.

MSU and Michigan are pretty big upfront but the Bucks shot well from 3 against both of them. Other than that, their success against big teams has not been great.


DITTO! This was exactly the sort of team they needed to avoid to go deep. If they play the way they did yesterday it is night night for them 8) Florida wold also be a VERY tough game. UCONN is the team to beat.

I feel bad for Kent St. #1 seed in the Mac tourny and they only get a 12? That should be a good game against Pitt.
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Unread postby consigliere » Mon Mar 13, 2006 9:23 am

Gee, there's a surprise....Swerb liking Duke for the Final 4. :twisted:
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Unread postby yargs7 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 1:12 pm

Ohio State did get a tough draw. That region is stacked. From top to bottom you have teams who got lower seeds than they deserved.

Nova (3rd best team in the nation, hands down)
BC (who is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than a 4)
Florida at 3 (should be a two instead of Tennesse)
Geogretown at 7? Going to be a very tough out
UW Milwuakee is a super strong 11, will beat Oklahoma
Northern Iowa as 10, from the MVC? They were in the top 25 this year!

Sheesh. That is sick.

This bracket is going to be rough, physical, and very similar to the WWF's royal rumble. By far, the most competitive region.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 4:59 pm

Oh by the way...Nice of the Committee to give Duke a cake walk right into the Final Four. God damn it!
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:16 pm

yargs7 wrote:BC (who is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than a 4)


I think BC's fools gold.

I watched them a fair amount last year, and they're practically the same team this year. They can look good, really good, on both sides of the floor, but their games always seem to be decided by a small margin, and whenever they're up against a quality opponent, they always seem to be on the wrong side of that small margin. Looking at their schedule this year, it appears to me that the only quality opponent they beat was UNC, twice, another team that's really overrated right now, IMO.

And if Duke has a cake walk, what do you call UConn's path? A softer, more melted DQ Ice cream cake walk?
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Mon Mar 13, 2006 8:22 pm

I forget how it works, can someone remind me how the commitee ranks the #2 & #3 seeds?

Does the #1 overall get paired with the lowest ranked #2, or does it simply have the advantage of being paired with the lowest #4 & #5 (which looks more like what Duke ended up with in their region)? And if it's reversed for #2s paired with #1s, how the hell did UConn get to be in the same region as Tennessee?
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Unread postby yargs7 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:24 pm

And if Duke has a cake walk, what do you call UConn's path? A softer, more melted DQ Ice cream cake walk?


It's an objective arguement at this point, but beyond LSU (being generous) there is no one in that top half with Duke. Syracuse is a phony 5 seed. They were on the bubble a week ago. And isn't it funny how the two seed in that region is a team that Duke already beat?
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Unread postby yargs7 » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:31 pm

Hoodoo,

I do agree with you on one thing for sure. Not only does Tennessee not belong in UConn's region, they have absolutely zero business as a two seed. None. That should be Florida.
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Mon Mar 13, 2006 10:43 pm

yargs7 wrote:
And isn't it funny how the two seed in that region is a team that Duke already beat?


Well, I'm counting on that not happening again. With all their talent, it looks like Texas has had one hell of a screwy season, either beating the shit out of teams by 20+ or having the shit beaten out of them by the same margin. When the latter happened against Duke, Buckman played only 7 minutes (anyone who watched the game have any idea why?) and neither Tucker nor Gibson shot the ball very well. And on top of that JJ Redick with 40+ had an especially good game.

WVU & Iowa aint pushovers either.
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Unread postby swerb » Tue Mar 14, 2006 9:56 pm

Alright, after finally making some time to take a real close look at things, heres where I'm at ...

Duke Bracket

I like Duke to make it to the regional final, but there are a couple teams in the bottom of the bracket that could easily beat them to advance to the Final Four.

GW as an 8 seed, after going 26-2 makes me a little nervous, but Coach K simply does not lose in the 1st 2 rds. I think Iona and A&M are two of the most likely DD seed upsets. I'm callin for A&M to get to the 16 where they will lose to Duke. I saw parts of two of their games late, and was impressed. They got a real good guard, a beast of a big man, and play tenacious D.

In the bottom, I liked West V going into this thing, but they got a tough draw IMO. So Illinois is a bad matchup for them, and then an Iowa team playing incredibly well looms. They (So Ill) guard the perimeter well and are one of the top defensive teams in the country. Im gonna say Iowa gets through and loses to Texas, who may have the second most talented top to bottom starting five behind UConn.

PICK: Duke
ALSO COULD BE: Texas
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Iowa
DEEP SLEEPER: Texas A&M


Memphis Bracket

This bracket has been driving me nuts. If theres some crazy shit that happens in this tourney, it could happen here.

Memphis, UCLA, Gonzaga, Kansas all have pretty equal shots to get to the Final Four. I haven't seen UCLA play this year. I like their draw. I like Ben Howland and the type of ball (non Pac 10) he allegedly has them playing.

I've got them playing Kansas in the regional final. Kansas is young, but playing incredibly well for a long period of time now (16-1 run). They beat the shit out of Texas in a game that really opened my eyes. And the two toughest teams they're likely gonna have to beat (Memphis then UCLA) are both young as well. I've been picking against Gonzaga the last five years and will continue to. I've got SD St sniping Indiana and them.

Kent can beat Pitt if Gerwig can step up and come close to matching Pitts good big man, but they don't have the team to get more than one win this year. I like Bama alot. They will beat Marquette and give UCLA fits.

PICK: Kansas
ALSO COULD BE: UCLA
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Bama
DEEP SLEEPER San Diego St


UConn Bracket

Everyones got UConn. So do I. But Mich State and Washington are two teams I like as Final 4 sleepers that I have in a couple pools.

UAB beat UK when they were a 1 seed a couple years ago, and I like them to revenge that and give UConn a pretty damn good game. I've got them playing Washington in the 16. Saw them once and came away really impressed. Even more so looking them over as they have a great senior guard, play well on D, and are demons in transition. Air Force over Illinois 1st rd also. Bank it.

In the bottom I've got Mich State beating Car-oh-lina in rd 2, and Seton Hall beating Wichita State and Tennessee to get to the sweet 16 as a 10 seed. And I've got UConn beating the Spartans to get to the final 4.

PICK: UConn
ALSO COULD BE: Michigan State
FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Washington
DEEP SLEEPER: Seton Hall


Villanova Bracket

The Buckeyes are my pick, and it's not a homer selection.

I don't like their draw, but I still think they win 4 straight to get to the Final 4. Georgetown is a tough 7 seed to get in rd 2. And Florida is an incredibly talented team that could easily do what they did the year they won it as a 4 seed over Duke.

I just have a gut feeling that the Buckeyes rediscover their long range touch. Like Duke, when they are hitting their 3's they are almost unbeatable. 6 losses this year were by like 15 total points. Fundamentally sound, great on D, well coached, and well tested. The big man Dials swan song, Sullinger is playing great also in his swan, and I think Je'Kel reignites in the tourney.

If I'm Matta, I'd much rather face Nova than BC in the 8. Better matchup, and BC may be the better team. Everyones on BCs jock though. I almost wouldn't be surprised to see em flame against a tough Pacific team in rd 1.

PICK: Ohio State
ALSO COULD BE: Florida
FINAL 4 SLEEPER: Oklahoma
DEEP SLEEPER: Pacific


FINAL FOUR

Just like in '99, I will be faced with the possible dilemma of the two teams I love (Duke & OSU) meeting in the Finals. Just like in 99, I think UConn is too much for the Buckeyes. And then goes on to beat Duke ... again like in 99.
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Mar 15, 2006 12:10 am

I like Ben Howland and the type of ball (non Pac 10) he allegedly has them playing.


I watched some of their Pac-10 final game, and I guess it depends on what you mean by non Pac 10.

If you mean physical, big men like Troutman & Bug Eyes mugging people in the paint, guards like Brown and Krauser hounding people on the perimeter, then they're not there yet. They all look like nice athletes, but the size and physical nature of Howland's Pitt defense simply isn't there.

It should scare you, btw, how much of what you've posted I agree with. Practically everything. Obviously, I went with Texas over Duke and then UConn, but other than that, the only signficiant difference, I think, is that I figured enough people would be picking Tennessee to get upset in the first weekend that it would be worth it to pick them to get beaten in the S-16 by MSU anyway. I also like a shoulder-chippy Gonzaga to get to the Elite 8 before being bumped by Kansas.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Wed Mar 15, 2006 1:04 pm

I have Uconn, Texas, Nova, and Pitt in one pool, with Nova edging Pitt in the finals. In the poll I picked with my heart I have OSU, Duke, Uconn, and UCLA. Buckeyes beating UCLA for the title.

I am totally sold on the Big East as the top conference in the land. If I'm wrong, I will be out of the running early.
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Unread postby comish » Sun Mar 19, 2006 8:34 pm

comish wrote:
Furls wrote:I like the Bucks to compete once they get past Georgetown. Georgetown is definetly underrated at 7. The reason i say that they are a tough draw for the bucks is it is their size. They have 3 players on their team that are Dials size or larger, and they all average over 10 points per game. Teams with this much size give the Buckeyes headaches (Iowa today and a couple months ago). In order to beat these teams they need great offense out of their guards and that has really been rather absent as of late.

MSU and Michigan are pretty big upfront but the Bucks shot well from 3 against both of them. Other than that, their success against big teams has not been great.


DITTO! This was exactly the sort of team they needed to avoid to go deep. If they play the way they did yesterday it is night night for them 8) Florida wold also be a VERY tough game. UCONN is the team to beat.

I feel bad for Kent St. #1 seed in the Mac tourny and they only get a 12? That should be a good game against Pitt.


SAW IT COMING! 8)
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Unread postby HoodooMan » Mon Mar 27, 2006 12:17 am

So how many of your Final Four teams did YOU get this year?

Only 2 out of the 75 entries in the pool I'm in managed to get two out of four correct.
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