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Our Economy In One Year...

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Our Economy In One Year...

Unread postby Bill the Butcher » Wed Jul 02, 2008 3:21 pm

Not really meant to be a start of a giant discussion of our economy, although this will probably lead to one.

Anyway, I just came back from Chicago and my cousin's boyfriend states that his brother, who works for US intelligence out in D.C., and his co-workers speculate our economy to be, for a lack of a better term, total poop in a year.

Gallon gas prices up to $12 and food prices also through the roof as well.

Alot can happen in a year though; gallon gas can stay the same... or be $15. LOL.
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Unread postby Indyan » Wed Jul 02, 2008 4:00 pm

With all due respect to...ummm...whoever, I'd rather listen to people like Warren Buffett. I don't think the economy is all sunshine and roses either, but everyone has an opinion. I've heard economists who think oil is headed for a drop. (Note: That doesn't mean they think it has peaked, but they say it's following the same path and trends from other preciptious climbs which preceeded large drops.)
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Unread postby General » Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:22 am

Indyan wrote:With all due respect to...ummm...whoever, I'd rather listen to people like Warren Buffett. I don't think the economy is all sunshine and roses either, but everyone has an opinion. I've heard economists who think oil is headed for a drop. (Note: That doesn't mean they think it has peaked, but they say it's following the same path and trends from other preciptious climbs which preceeded large drops.)


There may be some wisdom in that as I believe that the housing bubble was caused by the same type of speculation that is present in the oil market. I know this is an oversimplification, but I am essentially an oversimplified kind of guy.
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Re: Our Economy In One Year...

Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jul 03, 2008 10:09 am

Bill the Butcher wrote:Not really meant to be a start of a giant discussion of our economy, although this will probably lead to one.

Anyway, I just came back from Chicago and my cousin's boyfriend states that his brother, who works for US intelligence out in D.C., and his co-workers speculate our economy to be, for a lack of a better term, total poop in a year.

Gallon gas prices up to $12 and food prices also through the roof as well.

Alot can happen in a year though; gallon gas can stay the same... or be $15. LOL.


Anything's possible, but I think that is not likely to happen. Food prices can go up, but there often is a breaking point where the economy can't bear it and the market collapses.

I also think gas is unlikely to push that high if demand continues to fall off. Americans are driving a lot less and that's also starting to happen elsewhere. Many nations will pull back greatly on subsidies to their people for gas if it gets that high as well.

Food is largely dependent on what happens in several regions where drought is a part of the rising prices. If parts of Australia, for instance, get increased rainfall then prices may ease.

I think $12 a gallon for gas over here is a reach unless the government decides to jack up the taxes. I could see a President Obama doing that. If he gets into office and gets what he wants then the economy will take a severe dive just because of the increases he wants in taxes. Raising taxes on any bracket is a very bad idea in a slow economy. It saps out the already poor consumer confidence and would cause those with the most money to move it overseas. You raise the capital gains tax and few people will want to invest their money in ventures over here. He really has no grasp on market realities and looks to be Jimmy Carter Part 2, though much worse than that in all likelihood.
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Unread postby Invisible Man » Thu Jul 03, 2008 1:39 pm

ThreeThreeOh whats up buddy!
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Unread postby Bill the Butcher » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:06 pm

Invisible Man wrote:ThreeThreeOh whats up buddy!


Halt! Who goes there?
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jul 03, 2008 3:35 pm

Heard a report that the average gas price in Cleveland yesterday was $4.03 a gallon. Exactly one year ago on July 2nd, 2007 it was $2.87. Unreal.

My mother is a high level investment banker who has been working her ass off the last week because of the market. She handles million dollar accounts and has been saying it is scary right now and that some of this $70-$100 million accounts she has have dropped in value almost 25%. Those people have lost millions.

She was mentioning that a lot of it centers around the gas issue. Dairy companies have developed a new square gallon jug they will start using soon so they can get more jugs on a truck and transport them more efficiently. I hear General Motors is in danger of going under as well.

Insane.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jul 03, 2008 5:19 pm

Consigliere wrote:Heard a report that the average gas price in Cleveland yesterday was $4.03 a gallon. Exactly one year ago on July 2nd, 2007 it was $2.87. Unreal.

My mother is a high level investment banker who has been working her ass off the last week because of the market. She handles million dollar accounts and has been saying it is scary right now and that some of this $70-$100 million accounts she has have dropped in value almost 25%. Those people have lost millions.

She was mentioning that a lot of it centers around the gas issue. Dairy companies have developed a new square gallon jug they will start using soon so they can get more jugs on a truck and transport them more efficiently. I hear General Motors is in danger of going under as well.

Insane.


I don't think GM is quite on the brink of going under but their stock did take a dive after it had climbed back out of the gutter over the past few years. Their numbers for June stabilized a bit and they are reducing manufacturing on SUVs and trucks while moving up the timelines on their more fuel efficient vehicles. The replacement for the Cobalt that is coming next year is reported to be testing at 32 mpg in city driving and 45 on the highway. A mild hybrid version of that with a new technology called HCCI will probably be getting nearly 40mpg in the city for under $18K. They may get a loan to get these things to market sooner, but I think they'll be alright. It's tough for every automaker now. Even Toyota took a big dive recently.
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Unread postby Invisible Man » Thu Jul 03, 2008 6:21 pm

Bill the Butcher wrote:
Invisible Man wrote:ThreeThreeOh whats up buddy!


Halt! Who goes there?


The Voice of Truth/IBCB from the cavs boards. I got banned from CMB and CF yesterday.
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Unread postby Bill the Butcher » Thu Jul 03, 2008 9:50 pm

Invisible Man wrote:
Bill the Butcher wrote:
Invisible Man wrote:ThreeThreeOh whats up buddy!


Halt! Who goes there?


The Voice of Truth/IBCB from the cavs boards. I got banned from CMB and CF yesterday.


Hahaha, that sucks. So you come here because of my thread promoting this place?
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Unread postby Black.Sheep23 » Thu Jul 03, 2008 11:30 pm

Bill the Butcher wrote:
Hahaha, that sucks. So you come here because of my thread promoting this place?


I did. Good job.

Now onto my first take.

The problem with the economy shouldn't be a big mystery. Look at the Federal Reserve. It's legalized counterfeighting.

Money works much the same way as a basketball card. The ones that are really valuable are the ones that there are less of.

For example, when you raise minimum wage you put more money into an already failing economy thus lessening the value of the dollar.

President Moron decides to flood the economy with more money by handing it out in $600 dollar chunks, then tells everyone to spend it. Sure that might stimulate something in the short term, but in the long run, it just makes the dollar weaker.

The only real solution is to lower prices on consumer products such as food and gasoline. That won't happen though because the Gov is in bed with big corporations.

BTW, does it seem strange to anyone else that gas prices really began to rise when Moron took office? I mean his entire family fourtune is in the oil market.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Jul 04, 2008 1:06 am

Black.Sheep23 wrote:
BTW, does it seem strange to anyone else that gas prices really began to rise when Moron took office? I mean his entire family fourtune is in the oil market.


Or that the gas prices have gone up the most since the Democrats took control of Congress? Gas was around $1.65 when Bush took office. There were some spikes during hurricane hits, etc but it was around $2.35 going into the 2006 election. Now it's $4.00. Democrats - businesses no they will raise taxes and stifle supply so price goes up. Take a look at the campaigns going into this election year and gander at who is donating to them. More money from Big Oil Company execs is going to Democrats than Republicans.

We can play this game if you want. Frankly it goes far beyond our local politics or even our big corporations.

The corporations have so little to do with it. Big Oil isn't really that big, not when compared to Really Big Oil - the 95% of the oil supply that is controlled by foreign governments like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Iraq, etc. Big Oil may provide some services for them, but they don't own the wells or control the output.

As for the Fed, it is hardly legalized counterfeiting. Most money that circulates today throughout the world is by fiat. Yes they can print more and that does cause inflation, but rising prices do as well. High oil prices cause inflation globally because they influence everything because of the dependence on oil globally for transport. Even at the high prices oil is cheaper and more practical now than anything else.

And you are right about the minimum wage to a point. It doesn't necessarily cause the Treasury to put more money in circulation, but it does devalue salaries above the minimum and causes price increases. If a business has to pay employees (even the crappiest ones) $0.50 more an hour then they will raise prices. That means that eventually the new minimum wage goes just as far as the old one and it needs to be raised again - and all other salaries eventually need to be raised because of price increases. That's why I'm for abolishing the minimum. Why should slacker teenagers get paid as much as a hardworker? The minimum wage guarantees that even poorer workers get paid a certain wage and the better workers don't get rewarded as much as they should. Get rid of the minimum wage and see what happens. The slackers won't like it but then maybe they'll work harder.

The $600 rebate doesn't really do much to the dollar value. The administration has certainly not done anything to prop up the value because they are attempting to correct the trade deficit. I don't agree with the method nor do I think the administration is entirely at fault.

The Fed could jack up the interest rates to strengthen the dollar but that'll hurt any housing recovery and further tighten up credit.

A more responsible Congress that balances the budget would actually go a long way to strengthening the dollar. A further reduction in capital gains tax would help as well because it would bring more capital to the US. A major cut in the corporate tax would also be beneficial. Take the corporate tax down to 20% (15% with write offs) and you will see much more investment in the US, more growth for small business, and eventually more jobs and greater pay. That's what happens when the corporate tax goes down. Thin out the regulations and make it easier for businesses to thrive. Do you know hard it is for someone to build a manufacturing plant in the US? It costs millions more than it should because of bureaucracy. Thin out the red tape, allow businesses to deduct depreciation more quickly, and provide tax incentives for building factories, offices, etc in the US.
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Unread postby Invisible Man » Mon Jul 07, 2008 2:13 pm

Bill the Butcher wrote:
Invisible Man wrote:
Bill the Butcher wrote:
Invisible Man wrote:ThreeThreeOh whats up buddy!


Halt! Who goes there?


The Voice of Truth/IBCB from the cavs boards. I got banned from CMB and CF yesterday.


Hahaha, that sucks. So you come here because of my thread promoting this place?


Yeah, pretty much. I mean, I need something to do when I come on the computer, haha. But man, CavFanatic is awful right now. I don't miss that place.
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Unread postby Bill the Butcher » Mon Jul 07, 2008 4:31 pm

Invisible Man wrote:Yeah, pretty much. I mean, I need something to do when I come on the computer, haha. But man, CavFanatic is awful right now. I don't miss that place.


Word.

Now that I'm on CMB as Bill until it closes, I'm not on Fanatic anymore.... thank God.
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