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Florida's Huge Tonight

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Florida's Huge Tonight

Unread postby swerb » Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:44 pm

Especially for the Republicans. Race this tight, state this big, week before Super Tuesday .... winner tonight between Romney and McCain becomes a touchdown favorite to win the nominaton.

So many people are on the fence with this field. Vast majority of people I've talked to still aren't sold on one guy just yet. Winner tonight gets some of those of those fence sitters to come aboard.

Hillary needs to win, and she should. But if its close, Obama keeps the momentum.
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Unread postby waborat » Tue Jan 29, 2008 6:59 pm

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Unread postby mrburns » Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:21 pm

Florida's delegates don't count for the Dems. Same deal as Michigan, they moved their primaries up and the DNC isn't going to let their delegates vote. This is both weird and really dumb.

Why didn't they just revert to their original primary dates? I see where they're coming from, they want to play a larger role in the primary process, but they weren't going to win this fight in the short-term.
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Re: Florida's Huge Tonight

Unread postby Hi Oktane » Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:52 pm

Swerb wrote:Especially for the Republicans. Race this tight, state this big, week before Super Tuesday .... winner tonight between Romney and McCain becomes a touchdown favorite to win the nominaton.

So many people are on the fence with this field. Vast majority of people I've talked to still aren't sold on one guy just yet. Winner tonight gets some of those of those fence sitters to come aboard.


I'm still a fence-sitter. Despite my respect for him, I just can't get into McCain, and his evident lack of knowledge about the economy is concerning to me. For all the straight-talk talk, he sure sounds like a populist. I think I'm ideologically most aligned with Romney (well, except for the whole Mormon thing); but I'm not completely sold on him yet either. I "like" Mike Huckabee the most, but I don't know that he is the right guy (right now), if there is one among the three, for the nomination.

Hillary needs to win, and she should. But if its close, Obama keeps the momentum.
Well, she won...big. And, while Obama has shown well to-date, Billary is polling well in the big states. The Dem race should continue to be very interesting, and thanks to Bill, very entertaining. I'm looking forward to a nasty party-dividing race right up until the end.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:39 am

McCain is definitely the front runner at this point, though I think that's bad news for him. He's reportedly out of money going into Super Tuesday. He blew a lot doing Robocalls throughout Florida this past week. I received over 10 calls from McCain and his camp between the home line and the cell phone since last Thursday. All of them were pretty nasty towards Romney and said nothing about McCain's record. I think McCain was desperate and it worked for him, but he shot his load. He's hoping for help from Rudy in the NE on Super Tuesday to stay in this thing, even with the win. There's still rumors he'll take matching funds for the general election and that's the kiss of death for Republicans.

Now he faces the prospect of an Anybody But McCain coalition. He's pursued Guiliani to soften that blow. I think many of the Rudy Guiliani supporters will swing to Romney, though some will follow McCain.

What will the Huckabee supporters do? Do they realize it is a two man race and will they support Romney to stop McCain? I'd vote for him, but I don't like the prospect of McCain in November at all. He's old and looks like it. He's crotchety and doesn't have the charisma of Ronald Reagan.

Bob Dole redux? Would McCain's candidacy allow the Dems to take 60 seats in the Senate and force through socialized medicine?

I'll campaign for him if it comes to that, but I don't like the prospect of it.

Can Romney's camp somehow persuade Huckabee to climb on board with Mitt? I'd guess that Guiliani would be the VP on a McCain ticket at this point. Can Mitt negotiate to have Huck on his ticket and swing the south towards Romney?

It's going to be interesting. I think a lot of Republicans will now gravitate towards Romney because of their dislike of McCain. Romney can also blitz the Super Tuesday states whereas McCain doesn't appear to have the resources to do so. I don't believe Guiliani's funding can be transferred to McCain, so that could hurt McCain greatly, especially in California.

Romney really needs to reach out to Huckabee at this point and attempt to get him on board. Huckabee has no chance of winning at this point because I don't think he can come out on top in a brokered convention.

Both candidates still need about 1200 delegates more to get the nomination squared. Neither will be able to get there if Huckabee stays in, so there's the argument for staying in. McCain has probably already offered Rudy the VP gig (and may have guaranteed that he'll only run for one term), so he can't do that for Huckabee now. The rumor early on was that Huckabee would join up with the McCain camp down the line, so we'll see.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:28 am

THIS is our choice? A nation of three hundred fucking fifty million people and THESE are the choices? Great googly moogly, we blow.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:52 am

Steve Buffum wrote:THIS is our choice? A nation of three hundred fucking fifty million people and THESE are the choices? Great googly moogly, we blow.


It's just over 300 million people Steve. We wouldn't even get to 350 if we included Canada. We do net a person every 13 seconds. That's just under 2.5 million added per year, so we're still around 20 years away from your quoted population.

Anyways, I do like Romney quite a bit and think he's well qualified. I feel the same as you in regards to everyone else now that Guiliani is gonzo.
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Unread postby mrburns » Wed Jan 30, 2008 3:37 am

I'm glad Giuliani is gone, he was the least qualified of the four major Republican players. He wasn't even really a Republican.

Rudy really showed the world how to run a campaign, didn't he? Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina? Screw 'em!
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Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:27 am

Allburn wrote:I'm glad Giuliani is gone, he was the least qualified of the four major Republican players. He wasn't even really a Republican.

Rudy really showed the world how to run a campaign, didn't he? Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina? Screw 'em!


Not to mention he was also the genius who suggested the recently indicted Bernard Kerick for the head of Homeland Secruity. The guy was chief of the NYPD taking money from the mob and banging his mistress in an apartment reserved for 9/11 workers.
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Unread postby dpdad » Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:49 am

Looking like McCain has the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Guiliani will endorse him, and many of Rudy's supporters will go to McCain. Huckabee is drawing support of evangelicals away from Romney, splitting his conservative support. Will McCain reward Huck with a VP nod if he gets the nomination? Gonna be an interesting week.
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Unread postby swerb » Wed Jan 30, 2008 8:55 am

McCain is definitely the front runner at this point, though I think that's bad news for him. He's reportedly out of money going into Super Tuesday. He blew a lot doing Robocalls throughout Florida this past week. I received over 10 calls from McCain and his camp between the home line and the cell phone since last Thursday. All of them were pretty nasty towards Romney and said nothing about McCain's record. I think McCain was desperate and it worked for him, but he shot his load. He's hoping for help from Rudy in the NE on Super Tuesday to stay in this thing, even with the win. There's still rumors he'll take matching funds for the general election and that's the kiss of death for Republicans.

Now he faces the prospect of an Anybody But McCain coalition. He's pursued Guiliani to soften that blow. I think many of the Rudy Guiliani supporters will swing to Romney, though some will follow McCain.

What will the Huckabee supporters do? Do they realize it is a two man race and will they support Romney to stop McCain? I'd vote for him, but I don't like the prospect of McCain in November at all. He's old and looks like it. He's crotchety and doesn't have the charisma of Ronald Reagan.

Mac, with that win down on your turf last night, the faucets of money are going to start to open up for McCain. In addition, Huckabee is staying in the race, and that hurts Romney. If Huckabee drops out, his religious right people would go to Romney. I'm actually starting to think that McCain might be saying to Huckabee, "wink, wink ... stay in ... and be my VP".

Lastly, the immediate Giuliani endorsement helps McCain as well. Without it, you're right, more of the Rudy people would have went to Mitt. But now? He'll lose some of em.

Get ready for McCain/Hillary. Which will be an interesting campaign. The two have a very cordial relationship, yet in an interview with Hillary last night, you could just tell there was a little part of her anxious to start tearing into her now likely opponent.

Can you picture what The Clinton Machine is going to do to McCain? Ads of him looking close to 100 years old, snippets of his angry outbursts at people. The voiceover ... "Do you want this man leading your country?"

Key to this campaign is going to be the state of the war. If things continue to go well in Iraq, McCain is going to be hard to beat. If things take a turn for the worse, The Clintons will link McCain to Bush, paint him as a war mongerer, and Hillary will start to make timed withdrawals a more prevalent theme to her campaign.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:35 am

Swerb wrote:Mac, with that win down on your turf last night, the faucets of money are going to start to open up for McCain. In addition, Huckabee is staying in the race, and that hurts Romney. If Huckabee drops out, his religious right people would go to Romney. I'm actually starting to think that McCain might be saying to Huckabee, "wink, wink ... stay in ... and be my VP".


I don't know. New Hampshire was supposed to turn the faucets on for McCain. Then South Carolina was supposed to.

Plus Super Tuesday is only a week away. He might be able to take in several million, but it takes far more to play in 22 states, especially California.

I think he's promised the VP nod to Guiliani to get his support. The talk is that McCain brokered a deal with Rudy to get his endorsement.

Lastly, the immediate Giuliani endorsement helps McCain as well. Without it, you're right, more of the Rudy people would have went to Mitt. But now? He'll lose some of em.


Some, but I still think a majority will go to Mitt. Each candidates supporters are not like sheep and most have all listed Romney as their #2 choice. I would say that 60-70% or more will break towards Romney from Guiliani. McCain's immigration stances kill him with conservatives and that showed yesterday.

John McCain won because old people voted for him. The conservatives went for Romney as did the younger voters. John McCain is the candidate for those over 60 years old. He's not going to reach younger generations. That's what pushed him over the edge last night when you look at exit polling. It won't play as well outside of Florida.

There's also the fact that over 40,000 Democrats switched their registration to Republican because of the nullification of the state's Democrat delegates. Samples of them indicate that they registered Republican to vote for the best candidate to ensure a Democrat victory in the Fall. They swung for John McCain and were very organized in doing so.

Get ready for McCain/Hillary. Which will be an interesting campaign. The two have a very cordial relationship, yet in an interview with Hillary last night, you could just tell there was a little part of her anxious to start tearing into her now likely opponent.


That'll mean a big loss for Republicans and will probably make us lose ground in the Senate. I'm not sure if the Dems will get 60, but I can see the Republicans crumbling. Say hello to higher taxes, socialized medicine, and the possibility that the US will begin its move towards second tier status as we sink under the incredible weight of the welfare state.

Can you picture what The Clinton Machine is going to do to McCain? Ads of him looking close to 100 years old, snippets of his angry outbursts at people. The voiceover ... "Do you want this man leading your country?"


Exactly.

Key to this campaign is going to be the state of the war. If things continue to go well in Iraq, McCain is going to be hard to beat. If things take a turn for the worse, The Clintons will link McCain to Bush, paint him as a war mongerer, and Hillary will start to make timed withdrawals a more prevalent theme to her campaign.


The war isn't much of an issue at this point, so I'm not sure about that. Polling data shows that people are becoming more and more concerned about the economy and Mitt wins big with those people.

Romney needs to keep it on the economy. He needs to hammer McCain's complete ineptitude on the subject (the man admitted he knew very little about how things worked economically) and show his leadership. It is known throughout political punditry that the Democrats do not want to face Romney. He's too smart, is an actual Washington outsider, and kills everyone when people focus on the economy.

In the next week you will see the blogosphere and conservative talkers hammer on McCain to prevent him from winning. National Review will go hard after him. Even if Huckabee stays in, I think that many of his voters will abandon him for Romney to stop McCain. There will be a focus on McCain's role in the Gang of 14 and his statement that he'd likely not nominate another justice like Sam Alito.

McCain isn't going to have much capital going into Super Tuesday. He wouldn't have much in November. These surges of momentum don't earn him major cash, that's why he'll take matching funds. No one is excited about McCain except the MSM and the Dems who know that he'll be easy to beat.

Today the push will start to get the base of the party to unify around Romney going into Super Tuesday. I expect large buys from Romney as he blitzes all the states and begins to tout his economic credentials. Some polling numbers even are indicating that McCain is behind in Arizona. It's a bad sign if you have trouble carrying your home state.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:02 am

Mr. MacPhisto wrote:
Steve Buffum wrote:THIS is our choice? A nation of three hundred fucking fifty million people and THESE are the choices? Great googly moogly, we blow.


It's just over 300 million people Steve. We wouldn't even get to 350 if we included Canada. We do net a person every 13 seconds. That's just under 2.5 million added per year, so we're still around 20 years away from your quoted population.


Note that this doesn't actually refute my point or help me manage my furious disbelief.
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Unread postby rawdawgexpress » Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:57 pm

Macphisto:

"What will the Huckabee supporters do? Do they realize it is a two man race and will they support Romney to stop McCain? I'd vote for him, but I don't like the prospect of McCain in November at all. He's old and looks like it. He's crotchety and doesn't have the charisma of Ronald Reagan."


rawdawg:

I really don't understand why Republicans don't like McCain. Rush Limbaugh was melting down today after Romney got whipped in Fla.

Wasn't Romney the liberal pro-choice Mormon governor from the
great state of Massachusetts?

Romney just changed all his views to move to the Right prior to the campaign, and the Youtube evidence is pretty hilarious. Or did you guys just forget that?

Whereas McCain has been a consistent hawk, yet has the nuts to call out the Bush admin on the whole torture issue. Dude is a badass.

I've been discussing this upcoming election with my sister, who is a pretty big muckity muck with the Dems in Los Angelos. She's got lots of information about the innerworkings of the Dems. My own political leanings are also pretty leftist (I contributed to the Bill Richardson campaign). Both of us feel that a Hillary Clinton presidency would be very divisive and not productive to the country. She also runs a pretty amoral campaign, very dirty in fact. Both of us would SERIOUSLY consider voting McCain if he went up against Hillary.

So i'm not sure why you think Hillary will beat McCain. People hate the Clintons. Dems and Republicans alike.

Macphisto:

"That'll mean a big loss for Republicans and will probably make us lose ground in the Senate. I'm not sure if the Dems will get 60, but I can see the Republicans crumbling. Say hello to higher taxes, socialized medicine, and the possibility that the US will begin its move towards second tier status as we sink under the incredible weight of the welfare state. "

rawdawg:

I call bullshit. We just had eight years where Republicans controlled Congress and the Oval Office. They had a chance to control the deficit and try to keep our manufacturing jobs in this country. They failed miserably on both counts. Lets not mention another catastrophic Failure, the likely illegally prosecuted Iraqi war- costing us $500 billion and 5000 lives.

Republican gov't has led us into second tier status. Lets not pretend otherwise.
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Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:36 pm

Here is Mitt Romney.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGur36uVWxA[/youtube]
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jan 31, 2008 8:42 pm

Skating Tripods wrote:Here is Mitt Romney.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGur36uVWxA[/youtube]


Well, at least he's not a liar like John McCain. He's admitted to a change in his position.

John McCain is for:

1. Restricting free speech (McCain-Feingold)
2. Increasing taxes substantially (McCain-Lieberman, a bill that would raise the gas taxes by $0.50 a gallon and increase most people's energy bills by 50%)
3. Amnesty to illegal aliens (McCain-Kennedy, sure they'd have to pay fines if they want to be US citizens, but anyone else can get a Z Visa and stay here until they die without penalty while cutting ahead of all those who try to get here legally).

John McCain is a bitter, nasty old man and I will never, ever, ever vote for him. He's a liar who defaced Governor Romney, knowing full well that he had to resort to lies to do so.

If John McCain is the nominee then I'll sit this one out or vote for the Democrat. The phone calls I got from his campaign and their nastiness was the last straw. He will never, ever get my vote.

If John McCain is the nominee then we need to be prepared for socialized medicine, a Democrat congress, and all the other things that come with it.

If John McCain were a true patriot he would drop out right now because he knows he can't win. Instead he's just looking after John McCain. He was brave in Vietnam, but he's been a horrible politician and an even worse leader.

There's nothing this man can do to get my vote and I might even be encouraged to campaign against him.

He's a Richard Nixon Republican.

We need to do whatever we can to stop him. Either that or hope he croaks before November.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jan 31, 2008 8:54 pm

rawdawgexpress wrote:
I really don't understand why Republicans don't like McCain. Rush Limbaugh was melting down today after Romney got whipped in Fla.

Wasn't Romney the liberal pro-choice Mormon governor from the
great state of Massachusetts?

Romney just changed all his views to move to the Right prior to the campaign, and the Youtube evidence is pretty hilarious. Or did you guys just forget that?


Not really. Have you ever listen to his reasoning behind the change of viewpoint? He actually has a story.

Just like Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was a flip flopper on abortion too. He signed a liberal abortion law in Cali back in the 1960s. He changed his mind.

Al Gore used to be pro-life, but no one brought up YouTube stuff about that.

Romney pledged that he would not change that state's abortion laws when he took office. McCain's ad distorts his response by failing to provide the question. Romney knew he couldn't change the laws, but he did veto legislation to liberalize it further. He also vetoed legislation concerning embryonic stem cells.

So, it's a crime to change your viewpoint? Romney's change was known over two years ago. He's changed greatly since 1994 and would be the first to admit that, but he's not the first to change.

Whereas McCain has been a consistent hawk, yet has the nuts to call out the Bush admin on the whole torture issue. Dude is a badass.


Whatever. Waterboarding isn't torture. McCain is grandstanding and being contrarian because that's how he is. It's because he's such a big asshole. Look at how his mistreats his fellow Senators.

I've been discussing this upcoming election with my sister, who is a pretty big muckity muck with the Dems in Los Angelos. She's got lots of information about the innerworkings of the Dems. My own political leanings are also pretty leftist (I contributed to the Bill Richardson campaign). Both of us feel that a Hillary Clinton presidency would be very divisive and not productive to the country. She also runs a pretty amoral campaign, very dirty in fact. Both of us would SERIOUSLY consider voting McCain if he went up against Hillary.


And you wonder why I have a problem with McCain. If a liberal would vote for him then we have a problem.

So i'm not sure why you think Hillary will beat McCain. People hate the Clintons. Dems and Republicans alike.


True, but don't count on the conservative base showing up for McCain. I think he'd have a better shot against Hillary than Obama.

I call bullshit. We just had eight years where Republicans controlled Congress and the Oval Office. They had a chance to control the deficit and try to keep our manufacturing jobs in this country. They failed miserably on both counts. Lets not mention another catastrophic Failure, the likely illegally prosecuted Iraqi war- costing us $500 billion and 5000 lives.


How was it illegally prosecuted? Didn't Congress authorize action?

And how's it a failure at this point? We've seen it stabilize. The news has been good. We didn't cut and run, leaving the Iraqis to a nasty fate. We also freed them from an evil dictator who had killed hundreds of thousands.

As for the deficit, you're right. The Republicans didn't do their job. That's why the lost in 2006, the base refused to support them.

As for manufacturing, it'd hard to fix it because liberals are in the way. Do you support massive corporate tax cuts? Do you support deregulation and a reduction in the EPA's role in manufacturing? Do you support laws which give the businesses more leverage against labor unions?

If you said no then it is you and those like you that have prevented manufacturing growth and business growth as a whole.

Republican gov't has led us into second tier status. Lets not pretend otherwise.


Not really.

A socialist government definitely would. It'd be a shame to attempt to emulate the horrid Europeans and their high taxes, welfare state economy that may collapse in the next fifty years as they have fewer children and more older people to support.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jan 31, 2008 10:05 pm

Excellent column by Hugh Hewitt:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/Hugh ... _to_romney

As Rush has been hammering, John McCain is a Country Club Republican in the Nixonian style. He is not a Reagan Republican.

Then there's Mark Levin, a man who served with Reagan.

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ND ... WQ1NjI4MGI

Michael Reagan, the Gipper's son, also wrote a piece damning McCain.

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/Mich ... n_hates_me

John McCain is an asshole that thinks he is better than everyone else, that he deserves to lead by birthright.

The nomination of McCain would mean the end of the Reagan coalition and the conservative ideals that Reagan fought for. It would attempt to steer the Republican Party to the left, taking us in the direction of carbon credits and a ruined economy. No exploration for more oil. No real attempt to save jobs or create new, better ones.

It's time for all real conservatives to rally to Romney's banner. Yes, he's flawed. Yes, he's changed positions and has explained himself. It is easy to hold a certain viewpoint before you ever sit in a position to make decisions regarding it. Romney changed when he had to look deeply at himself and at the situation. I say that's a credit to him, not a negative.

The major question surrounds Huckabee. His voters need to abandon him, knowing that McCain is not a conservative and not to be trusted. Either that or Romney needs to find a way to get him out. It's obvious that McCain would be in trouble without Huckabee. Though McCain will be in trouble beyond Super Tuesday because he's flat broke. He's not selling promises to get endorsements. He's going to owe Arnold in Cali, so I'm sure we'll see Al Gore-esque "green" ideas from McCain. He had to make some promises to Rudy. He won't make any promises with Huckabee just yet because he knows those voters will swing hard for Romney if Huck departs. That could bite him in the butt too. Delegates do not have to stick with their guy past the first vote and Huckabee will probably also keep McCain from reaching above 50% of the delegates needed. If Romney sticks it out then we could still see a brokered election with McCain kicked to the curb.
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