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So THIS Is What A Presidential Race Looks Like!

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So THIS Is What A Presidential Race Looks Like!

Unread postby ProgRocker » Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:15 am

I'm 45, and throughout my adult life presidential primaries have been little more than coronations that were finished by the time I had to vote, whether in Ohio or my home here in Illinois.

After tonight's results, regardless of whichever party you belong to, it seems very clear that for the first time in perhaps our lifetimes, each party's primaries are possibly ALL going to help choose a candidate. One of the blogs I've seen says that this is the first time since 1976 (when the primaries really took hold and Iowa/New Hampshire took such prominence) where IA/NH produced four separate winners.

On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-way donnybrook between Obama and Hillary, with John Edwards acting as a gadfly (and, maybe, kingmaker) through at least Super Tuesday on the 5th. On the Republican side? Who the Hell knows? And to see the utter shock on the faces of all the punditocracy tonight, particularly on the possibility that they may have triggered a reaction that led Hillary to her win tonight ... priceless, no matter what you think of the particular candidates.

I have to admit, it's refreshing ... and kind of fun, so long as the campaigns don't wallow in muck (which, at least on the Democratic side at least, doesn't seem to be the case right now).

Anybody else with me?
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Unread postby swerb » Wed Jan 09, 2008 9:23 am

Yeah, both sides are wide open.

Dems is gonna be a two horse race between Hillary and Obama. Obama has done better than expected in Iowa and NH, states with next to no African Americans. If he can continue to do that well, and get a big chunk of the black vote in some of the southern states like SC ... he's got a serious chance to knock her off, something I never thought possible till now.

Repubs, you gotta say McCain in the frontrunner right now. With Huckabee right there. Romney prolly needing a win in Michigan. Giuliani prolly needing one on Florida. It will be interesting to see how Fred Thompson does in SC after skipping Iowa and NH almost completely. He needs to do very well there to stay alive.
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Unread postby ProgRocker » Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:10 am

But Huckabee is disliked by the GOP powers -- allegedly -- and McCain is disliked by the evangelicals -- allegedly.

Could the GOP wind up with Newt/Jeb after the convention?
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jan 09, 2008 1:46 pm

I am stunned how wide open this race is. In the past, I usually did not follow the race for the nomination because it was always a foregone conclusion.....but right now this stuff is fascinating.

There is not one candidate who has yet caught my fancy, and I am more just watching how things play out right now. But, damn, what a historical moment we are witnessing as I don't see such a wide open race happening ever again in my lifetime. Plus, all the different angles with the possiblity of the first African American or female President.

One thing, and I missed this the other day being extremely busy the last few days, but did Hillary REALLY cry in an interview the other day? If so, was that staged or real, and do we want an emotional basket case with their finger on the red button? :eek: :o :-o
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sat Jan 19, 2008 10:10 am

Consigliere wrote:
One thing, and I missed this the other day being extremely busy the last few days, but did Hillary REALLY cry in an interview the other day? If so, was that staged or real, and do we want an emotional basket case with their finger on the red button? :eek: :o :-o


I have a feeling that it was staged and a move that Bill advised. He never would have teared up, but he's always been good at doing "from the heart" emotional speeches.

If Hillary is the candidate on the Dem side, I don't see her opponent attacking her on the emotional issues. I do think that there will be many voters out there who will take that under advisement. While I think a woman is perfectly able to maintain control of herself in the face of crisis, there will be plenty out there who will stay away from her because of this emotional issue.

This election season thus far is historically unprecedented in the modern era. The closest on one side would be the Ford-Reagan tilt in 1976 that went down to the wire and that one was unique because it involved a sitting president, though one that had never been elected on a national ticket.

Conventions in the past did not use primaries or caucuses to determine who delegates would vote for. The state party would send delegates to the national convention and determine who the candidate would be based on a variety of backroom deals, etc. It often would take several ballots to determine the party's representative.

What makes this one really odd is that the Vice President is not interested in running. Nixon and Gore both were the obvious choices for their party to succeed the sitting President, although the VP has historically walked away the loser more often than not. The Secretary of State has yielded more presidents and nominees - that is often looked at as the gateway to the Presidency. We're not even seeing that happening now.

It is also odd to see a party embrace two Senators, especially since neither has much experience in the Senate. Clinton's experience is on par with JFK's time in the Senate prior to 1960. Senators also historically do very poorly. Our last one elected with zero executive experience was JFK, the others who had served in the Senate (Johnson and Nixon) both picked up some experience as VP before becoming President. Neither, IMHO, would be considered a great or even good President. Both Nixon and Johnson have too many ties to the welfare state for my tastes.

If this goes down to the wire in both parties it could get interesting. Both parties require that over 50% of the delegates are required to nominate, so it is possible that no one will achieve that for either party. Edwards will pick up enough delegates (most states are not winner take all - they divide them based on percentages) to potentially cause no one to get more than 50%. It would be quite easy to see the Republicans heavily divvied up on delegates. We could actually see two brokered conventions.

Here's the kicker, it is quite possible in a brokered convention that none of the current candidates get selected. You could have a white knight coming in to try to save the day. The Democrats could attempt to go to Al Gore as their savior with some talking about the Republicans turning to Newt Gingrich. That's the nightmare scenario for both if candidates are unwilling to yield ground.
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Unread postby ProgRocker » Sat Jan 19, 2008 12:15 pm

I guarantee you the Democrats would not see it as a nightmare if somehow Al Gore ended up as the nominee in a brokered convention. My guess is he'd take Obama as his VP and go nuts.

On the GOP side, I've been saying for the last four years that Jeb! Bush was going to be on that ballot, and I haven't seen anything that dissuades me from that. You may laugh, but the hardest-of-the-hardcore Republican base are still sticking with Bush, and from what I've seen they're the ones most dissatisfied by the choices there now. And they're staying home, if the MI turnout numbers are any indication. I'm not saying Jeb! will be the nominee, but a Newt/Jeb! ticket is not out of the question.

I'm looking forward to today's results on both sides.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:01 am

ProgRocker wrote:I guarantee you the Democrats would not see it as a nightmare if somehow Al Gore ended up as the nominee in a brokered convention. My guess is he'd take Obama as his VP and go nuts.


I wasn't inferring that they'd see it as a nightmare, just that it'd be the nightmare scenario overall in that neither nominee would have gotten any votes in the primaries and caucuses.

On the GOP side, I've been saying for the last four years that Jeb! Bush was going to be on that ballot, and I haven't seen anything that dissuades me from that. You may laugh, but the hardest-of-the-hardcore Republican base are still sticking with Bush, and from what I've seen they're the ones most dissatisfied by the choices there now. And they're staying home, if the MI turnout numbers are any indication. I'm not saying Jeb! will be the nominee, but a Newt/Jeb! ticket is not out of the question.

I'm looking forward to today's results on both sides.


I don't think Jeb will be on the ticket. There was some buzz down here a year ago, but that has dissipated. What I've heard lately is that Minnesota's governor may be on the ticket in an attempt to swing Minnesota towards the Republicans and solidify the upper midwest.

Republicans understand that there's weariness for the Bush name out there (and the Clinton name). I don't see them putting Bush on the ticket, though I could see Jeb being named to a cabinet position in a Republican administration.

Jeb is still quite popular in Florida but wouldn't carry outside of the SE IMHO. It also wouldn't be good to have a Bush on the ticket if Clinton is the nominee because the repetition could be played on: Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton. The possibility of having 28 years with the same two families in power may be disquieting to some and cause them to vote for the new blood on the Republican ticket.
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Unread postby FUDU » Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:12 am

I guarantee you the Democrats would not see it as a nightmare if somehow Al Gore ended up as the nominee in a brokered convention.


OMFG you cannot be serious?

Al Gore is without question the biggest running joke in politics world wide.

He was raised to be the POTUS, and failed, not only failed but failed against on of the biggest jokes if not the biggest joke of a president ever.

Not only that, after his attempt at the White House, the guy took a giant leap off the lefty ledge and has alienated himself from his supporters from his previous run at POTUS and taken up a cause in which he has not only been shown to be a hypocrite but a cause in which as everyday passes gets debunked further and further.

Al Gore is the most unelectable person of note in the western hemisphere, and his knee jerking attempts at keeping himself newsworthy are the proof.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:31 pm

FUDU wrote:
I guarantee you the Democrats would not see it as a nightmare if somehow Al Gore ended up as the nominee in a brokered convention.


OMFG you cannot be serious?

Al Gore is without question the biggest running joke in politics world wide.

He was raised to be the POTUS, and failed, not only failed but failed against on of the biggest jokes if not the biggest joke of a president ever.

Not only that, after his attempt at the White House, the guy took a giant leap off the lefty ledge and has alienated himself from his supporters from his previous run at POTUS and taken up a cause in which he has not only been shown to be a hypocrite but a cause in which as everyday passes gets debunked further and further.

Al Gore is the most unelectable person of note in the western hemisphere, and his knee jerking attempts at keeping himself newsworthy are the proof.


While I would agree with much of this, I also agree Gore would win the election. If this makes sense.

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Unread postby FUDU » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:44 pm

While I would agree with much of this, I also agree Gore would win the election. If this makes sense.

90% rule.


I know exactly what you're saying but honestly IMO I don't think he could win even this election or any other election in the future no matter who his competition b/c I truly think he has lowered himself that much in the public's eyes. He is a laughing stock anymore, no matter what the situation or news story, problem is anymore for him the news story is ALWAYS about global warming with him and that turns 99% of people off the topic anymore b/c of his name.

There is that old saying about any publicity is good publicity, well he truly defies that saying, in his case any publicity just makes things that much worse for him.

IMO I would love to see him in an election, I don't believe he would win one state today, it would be hilarious.
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Unread postby ProgRocker » Sun Jan 20, 2008 12:57 pm

FUDU wrote:
I guarantee you the Democrats would not see it as a nightmare if somehow Al Gore ended up as the nominee in a brokered convention.


OMFG you cannot be serious?

Al Gore is without question the biggest running joke in politics world wide.

He was raised to be the POTUS, and failed, not only failed but failed against on of the biggest jokes if not the biggest joke of a president ever.

Not only that, after his attempt at the White House, the guy took a giant leap off the lefty ledge and has alienated himself from his supporters from his previous run at POTUS and taken up a cause in which he has not only been shown to be a hypocrite but a cause in which as everyday passes gets debunked further and further.

Al Gore is the most unelectable person of note in the western hemisphere, and his knee jerking attempts at keeping himself newsworthy are the proof.


Uh, have you been awake for the last 6 years or so? Al Gore disrespected? The guy is literally a ROCK STAR - or did that Oscar, Emmy, and NOBEL PEACE PRIZE somehow fool you?

And if you honestly believe global warming is a myth and that believing it is a 'radical idea' that is 'debunked,' I am afraid you are the one that has walked off the ledge because you are one of the few folks not being paid gazillions by Big Oil that think so.

If you think Al Gore is the most unelectable and disrespected person in 'the Western Hemisphere,' I would direct your attention to a certain phony Texan currently residing between Maryland and Virginia in an ornate ivory white house who I think is far, FAR more worthy of being called "unelectable and disrespected."

Wake up. History is lapping you.

And yes, if Al Gore somehow ended up on the Democratic ticket I'd say he'd win by AT LEAST 12 points. AT. LEAST.
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Unread postby FUDU » Sun Jan 20, 2008 1:22 pm

The only one being duped is you my friend, think about it you are glorifying a guy whose mission in life is now to preach to the world about anthropogenic global warming and its inevitable destruction of life as we know it today yet that same guy's own personal lifestyle is the epitome of hypocrisy.

His own personal energy usage is exponentially greater than the average home owners (anywhere on the planet) and yet he wants the rest of us to step back and take notice of what WE'RE doing?

And while you'll get no argument from me that GWB is an idiot and also unelectable he, while being a complete buffoon, is even more "green" than Al Gore, the first lady of climate change. I can at least respect GWB for that much. While maybe he didn't set up his lifestyle like that on his own he at least isn't running around telling us all to completely change our way of life for the cause of unsubstantiated global warming while running up energy bills into the 30k range, yeah that is 30 thousand dollars, some 20 times more than the national average household.

But everyone else is the fool, riiiight.
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Unread postby Dozen » Sun Jan 20, 2008 3:41 pm

Without trying to sound racist or sexist (because I'm not) I just dont see this country electing a black or woman president
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Jan 20, 2008 4:04 pm

ProgRocker wrote:Uh, have you been awake for the last 6 years or so? Al Gore disrespected? The guy is literally a ROCK STAR - or did that Oscar, Emmy, and NOBEL PEACE PRIZE somehow fool you?


Gore is a rock star with the looney tunes on the far left. Most other people actually are pretty annoyed by his holier than thou attitude.

And if you honestly believe global warming is a myth and that believing it is a 'radical idea' that is 'debunked,' I am afraid you are the one that has walked off the ledge because you are one of the few folks not being paid gazillions by Big Oil that think so.


Actually if you follow the ledgers of Big Oil you'll find that they tend to side with the global warming guys.

Why?

Scarcity = higher prices and greater profits. It has been known for a long time that BP, Mobil, Shell, etc have been big contributors to Greenpeace and other environmental causes because those groups attempt to limit oil production, causing shortages, and increasing prices.

I love that ad hominem attack of "denying global warming is like denying the holocaust."

If you truly think that then you are among the most closed minded around. You no longer have to debate anything if you just attack anyone who is against you and close off debate.

That's what Hitler and Mussolini all did. The big time purveyors of Global Warming are the fascists of our day. They know what's best for us. They know it's right. You can't debate about it. Any evidence to the contrary is because those using it were paid off.

Most of the "scientists" that support global warming are not climatologists.

As Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT, member of the NAS, and the former lead author of the UN's IPCC Panel has said:

"Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early twenty-first century's developed world went into a hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age."

That globally averaged temperature increase is also on shaky ground because the ONLY place in the world that has accurately monitored temperature for the past one hundred years in the United States. Most other data is wildly inconsistent until 30 years ago. All data about the size of the northern polar ice cap (Antarctica is actually surging with gains in ice mass) is only now 30 years old. That data has been wrongly manipulated in the past (the hockey stick graph that Gore uses has been shown to be a fraud and the IPCC has even admitted to it, yet he still uses it to create fear - what an ass, the guy who screamed about Bush playing on our fears has done far more lying and manipulation than the Bush administration has ever done).

Then there's the fact that the great spike of temperature in the early 1990s happened to occur at the same time that the USSR collapsed. The Soviet Union shut down all their Siberian weather stations at the time. You think excluding Siberia would shift the data somewhat?

Computer models predicted that the troposphere would heat before the surface did, yet the troposphere has been remarkably consistent during that period as monitored by satellites.

As for the Nobel Peace Prize, it's been worthless for a long time. Yasser Arafat, the terrorist, won it. Jimmy Carter, the living punchline, won it. All the fascist intellectuals buy into Gore's message because they see it as a means to expand government and attempt to create their dreamed utopia.

Sounds like the Nazis or the Soviets. Those both worked out well.


If you think Al Gore is the most unelectable and disrespected person in 'the Western Hemisphere,' I would direct your attention to a certain phony Texan currently residing between Maryland and Virginia in an ornate ivory white house who I think is far, FAR more worthy of being called "unelectable and disrespected."


Hmm. Bush won over 50% of the vote last time around, despite how much many people railed against him. I'm sure you think fraud was involved - any excuse the delegitimize him.

Wake up. History is lapping you.


It's already lapped you. Communism and socialism have been shown to be the gravest errors in human history. We've already seen the Europeans begin a rejection of it, realizing that their bloated government expenditures will eventually lead to their ruin.

And yes, if Al Gore somehow ended up on the Democratic ticket I'd say he'd win by AT LEAST 12 points. AT. LEAST.


Bush Derangement Syndrome. Wow. I think he'd actually get far fewer votes than he did last time.

We've got more and more legit scientists speaking up at the Global Warming Hoax every day.

I would heartily recommend that you attempt to get a copy of the DVD The Great Global Warming Swindle. It was done by the BBC and is very good, refuting pretty much everything in Gore's fantasy film.

There are other great books out there like Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years.

There are some good books about the medieval warm period that spurred the Renaissance and man's climb from feudalism.

There are also some out there about how the increase in CO2 has also increase plant growth, creating more arable land in the area of the Sahara, causing more food to be grown and fewer people to starve. THEY MUST BE STOPPED.

Of course, I'd guess that it's only a matter of time before some global warming nut calls for the reduction in one of the largest CO2 emitters: human beings. I wouldn't be surprised if a dictator uses global warming to advocate genocide because of human CO2 emissions.

It's the fascism that is very apparent on the left. They hammer Bush for being a fearmonger, though Bush reminds us of a very real threat. Al Gore and anyone who campaigns for global warming are far worse because there is nothing to back them up. There is no argument to be had with global warming advocates. Many on the left take up leftist causes as their religion, so they are zealots - fierce like Hitler.

Most everyone in Germany back sixty years ago believed they were genetically superior. They said that the scientific consensus backed them up and you couldn't argue against them.

Many people in the US back then and earlier felt that whites were superior to blacks and they had a "scientific consensus".

Both "consensuses" gave them the right to squash all opinion against them, denying voting rights in the US and imprisoning and killing in Germany.

I wonder if Al Gore comes to power how long it will be before someone like me can no longer vote? I wonder if all of us "non-believers" will be taken to re-education camps so we adhere to the "consensus".

After all, we can't have a debate on it. You're right, I'm wrong. You probably didn't even pay attention to half the things I said.

That's what I see as the differences between those who lean conservative and those who lean left: people on the right are more open to debate. They're more willing to allow free speech. People on the left claim that, but they've often attempted to squelch anyone that disagrees because of their totalitarian leanings.
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Unread postby ProgRocker » Sun Jan 20, 2008 5:30 pm

And here I thought I ran away from all the wingnut loons who turned TheOBR's WWR into FreeRepublicOrangeandBrown.com.

Sorry, boys, but you're dead wrong about Gore and even more wrong about global warming. The science is beyond solid and that's why most regular folks want to see things like better gas mileage, clean water, and a greener economy. To argue otherwise is nothing but ignorance - and, even if it were somehow wrong, the OTHER reality is that this country would be so much better off if we weren't dependent on oil I think even the two of you would agree. Gore's policies would take us a lot closer to energy independence, which would mean we would get a cleaner earth AND not have to go to war in the Middle East.

That's win-win to me, and that's another reason why I'm a Democrat, because we silly Democrats believe in people like Al Gore and concepts like science.

And you Republicans don't seem to.
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Unread postby Dozen » Sun Jan 20, 2008 6:30 pm

Democrats also raise welfare benifits and minimum wage at record rates................hence the reason 90% of innercity people are democrats............... and thats a fact.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jan 22, 2008 7:49 pm

ProgRocker wrote:And here I thought I ran away from all the wingnut loons who turned TheOBR's WWR into FreeRepublicOrangeandBrown.com.

Sorry, boys, but you're dead wrong about Gore and even more wrong about global warming. The science is beyond solid and that's why most regular folks want to see things like better gas mileage, clean water, and a greener economy. To argue otherwise is nothing but ignorance - and, even if it were somehow wrong, the OTHER reality is that this country would be so much better off if we weren't dependent on oil I think even the two of you would agree. Gore's policies would take us a lot closer to energy independence, which would mean we would get a cleaner earth AND not have to go to war in the Middle East.

That's win-win to me, and that's another reason why I'm a Democrat, because we silly Democrats believe in people like Al Gore and concepts like science.

And you Republicans don't seem to.


I could care less about any of this, but feel the need to chime in real quick.

Global warming is real. Of course it was real 1000 years ago, and 700 years ago, and 300 years ago, and 80 years ago.

It is a natural cycle, that will go on forever. Global warming will cycle back down and Al Gore IV will begin the Ice Age craze in 100 years.
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Unread postby FUDU » Tue Jan 22, 2008 8:04 pm

While on the topic, for those possibly interested in educating themselves on the subject a bit (obviously this is meant for posters not named Prog) get a hold of the book Not by Fire but By Ice.

It is an objective look at just one possible legitimate explanation concerning our climate change. It talks mostly about some of the theories of what really led to mass extinctions in the Earth's past and it eventually focus' on the Earth electromagnetic fields and reversal of these magnetic fields due to changes in our orbit and due to other things that take place in our galaxy.

The author doesn't claim it to be an end all be all explanation but it is something that many scientists buy into but they simply don't know enough about it to give it a as much attention as other theories on AGW.
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Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Wed Jan 23, 2008 4:51 pm

Ahhh American Politics making Canada look better everyday. Im going to vote for Obama because he is different thats it. We have allowed the goverment to neither be by us or for us.
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Unread postby FUDU » Wed Jan 23, 2008 6:54 pm

Good post cerebral.

I say 18 months limits at every level, if a politician cannot get something of what they claimed while campaigning done then fuck em.

We honestly have no recourse for poor or misrepresentation.
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Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Wed Jan 23, 2008 8:40 pm

FUDU wrote:Good post cerebral.

I say 18 months limits at every level, if a politician cannot get something of what they claimed while campaigning done then fuck em.

We honestly have no recourse for poor or misrepresentation.


The lifers in congress kill me its the same BS every year Kennedy has been there since what the Polk administration. Come election time they spout the same lines they 6 years ago. 18 months is perfect. I think the only reason some stay aslong as they do is because the pork spending gets them re-elected. If the American people actualy voted thier interest we would have a goverment that could actualy get things done. I also love the fact that congress takes the summer off just like the children they are. If you flush the toilet every 18 months you could get some fresh turds.
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