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The Syria Response- How & When

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The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:59 pm

Needless to say this one's going to be a bit complex. Appears clear that US is going to defy the Russians and Chinese and offer some sort of military response to Syria's alleged use of chemical weapons that killed 1,300 of its own people, not discriminating whether they be rebels or kids.

I know at least a few who frequent here will argue that it never happened and was a blah/blah/blah. Wanna go down that road then start your own fucking conspiracy thread.

Any way, genocide is typically frowned upon. Even the isolationists will tsk/tsk it at worst. ;-) ;) :wink: But isolationism isn't going to play here while much of the Arab world waits to see what repercussions Syria will face for crossing an Obama-drawn line. Iran is probably really interested. They may even drop their Chem Weps and Nuke plans to watch for a few hours.

So what happens now? NATO agreements despite an Arab venue? The Turks get pulled in as the NATO pawns on the Article 5 deal since the Syrians often hone their guidance system with Turkey as a target?

I'm not interested in whether people think it should happen. That's a different philosophical conversation. Again, start your own fucking thread.

I'm interested in the chess game of when it happens, how it happens and who screams loudest while loving every second of it.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Govbarney » Tue Aug 27, 2013 2:30 pm

During the first Gulf War it is rumored (a rumor I happen to believe). That Bush through back door communications warned Saddam that any use of his CBRN weapons against Allied forces would result in a nuclear response. At the time Saddam had a significant stockpile of such weapons, but never used them. I am sure similar overtures are currently being given to Assad to prevent any non-conventional attack on Turkey or Israel.

I am still not 100% convinced Syria used chemical weapons, they stand little to gain over use of such a non-discriminent weapon other then to antagonize the western powers. That being said if you are going to use a chemical weapon , and then try to hide it sarin would be a great choice, it is extremely non-persistant (brakes down and dissipates fast, very hard to detect even in organic material). Either way it will be interesting to see where this thing goes. If solid evidence is discovered of sarin use Obama will have his back against the wall due to his "red line" comments. At the very least I predict a NATO no-fly zone.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby googleeph2 » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:09 pm

They used chemical weapons. I am 100% convinced, from the NPR reports the next day. Too many various accounts that fit. Silent 'explosions', deaths with no blood, etc. etc. And just because they were used doesn't mean it was reasoned out, or even approved by Assad.

I think the president will find wiggle room and back away from ultimatums. Critics will howl, viewing him as the enabling parent issuing hollow threats. A no-fly zone might be the best move, though.

Praying for him. Frankly, it is really surprising he hasn't been tested in this way, til now.

Re: the chess game: I want to know answers to Pat Buchanon's questions (who was against ground troops in Iraq from the start, while Biden/H Clinton/Kerry/Reid/Schumer voted for it):

•Do we have incontrovertible proof that Bashar Assad ordered chemical weapons be used on his own people? And if he did not, who did?

•What kind of reprisals might we expect if we launch cruise missiles at Syria, which is allied with Hezbollah and Iran?

•If we attack, and Syria or its allies attack U.S. military or diplomatic missions in the Middle East or here in the United States, are we prepared for the wider war we will have started?

•Assuming Syria responds with a counterstrike, how far are we prepared to go up the escalator to regional war? If we intervene, are we prepared for the possible defeat of the side we have chosen, which would then be seen as a strategic defeat for the United States?

•If stung and bleeding from retaliation, are we prepared to go all the way, boots on the ground, to bring down Assad? Are we prepared to occupy Syria to prevent its falling to the Al-Nusra Front, which it may if Assad falls and we do not intervene?

For the record, I lean right, although especially domestically. I was not gung-ho on the ground war. Seems similar to now. (Admittedly though, it confuses me that Colin Powell and GWB 'admit' there were no WMD in Iran- when they had been used against the Kurds in the north, and there was plenty of time in the ramping up to war for WMD to be buried/spirited across the border to Syria, etc.)
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:39 pm

How- Probably no fly zone and air strikes. You gonna put boots on the ground to fight with the Free Syrian Army? Or just cover their advance like we did in Libya?

When- Who knows? We have to figure out who we can and can't do business with. The American way, baby.

And FTR, Hafez al-Assad had chemical weapons before Saddam.

The war is already spilling over into Lebanon.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Wed Aug 28, 2013 12:39 am

Who are the good guys and who are the bad guys in Syria? Might be a dumb question but I doubt any of us (or anyone in the democratic or republican parties) can answer that.

By western standards both sides are probably "bad guys". But should our standards even matter if this skirmish stays contained within their sovereign territory?

Use of chemical weapons is horrible, I get it. That said, why do we want to be the dumbasses that run into the ring and start trading punches? Both sides hate each other but they already probably hate us even more.

Let them sort out their own mess unless they start messing with us...they will continue to kill each other but that's their problem.

This is not isolationism...it's pragmatism.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 7:57 am

Pretty much the entire point right there in your first question, no? Create a million more enemies with the first cruise missile. People publicly indignant silently pleased that you just made martyrs of more arabs and did their recruiting for them, etc., etc.

Why will it happen? Because Obama said it has to once a line is crossed. So it will. Pragmatism be damned. So the right will consider him weak if he does nothing and less than pragmatic if he does something, the left will find reason to support him either way ("what a decisive and emphatic reaction!" or "what statesmanship to avoid it!").



YahooFanChicago wrote:Who are the good guys and who are the bad guys in Syria? Might be a dumb question but I doubt any of us (or anyone in the democratic or republican parties) can answer that.

By western standards both sides are probably "bad guys". But should our standards even matter if this skirmish stays contained within their sovereign territory?

Use of chemical weapons is horrible, I get it. That said, why do we want to be the dumbasses that run into the ring and start trading punches? Both sides hate each other but they already probably hate us even more.

Let them sort out their own mess unless they start messing with us...they will continue to kill each other but that's their problem.

This is not isolationism...it's pragmatism.
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"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Govbarney » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:32 am

YahooFanChicago wrote: Use of chemical weapons is horrible, I get it.


Chemical weapons are no more horrible then high explosives. In fact given the choice of being exposed to a nerve agent (which I have been 5 times), and being exposed to a the explosion of a tomahawk cruse missile, I pick the nerve agent any day of the week. At least with the nerve agent I have a chance of survival, more so if I have some antrapine and 2 Pam chloride near by. And last time I checked a gas mask wont protect you from bomb.

Chemical weapons are not a weapon of mass destruction, they are a weapon of mass fear because the lay person does not understand them, same is true for radiological weapons (dirty bombs), and in most cases biological weapons. The only true Weapon of mass destruction is a nuke.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Wed Aug 28, 2013 6:28 pm

Al-Anfal disagrees with your statement that chemical weapons are not WMDs. Or maybe those folks in Halabja just should've stocked up on antrapine, eh?
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Govbarney » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:08 pm

Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Al-Anfal disagrees with your statement that chemical weapons are not WMDs. Or maybe those folks in Halabja just should've stocked up on antrapine, eh?


Al-Anfal was a massive campaign combining nerve and blister agent coupled with a conventional rocketing/bombing and firing squads with the systematic goal of genocide, the latter killed more Kurds, but the Mustered and Sarin made more news. My point is that a chemical weapon is no more if not less dangerous then a conventional high explosive. Chem Weapons have three functions #1 Deny the enemy a piece of terrain (no one wants occupy dirty ground), #2 Slow down/hamper the enemy's movements(tough to fight in MOPP4 ), and #3 scare the living shit out of the enemy's civilian population. They do exceedingly well at all 3, if they didn't my MOS wouldn't exist, but to call them a WMD does a great disservice to the only real WMD, the one measured in Kilotons, and megatons.
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Re: The Syria Response- How & When

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:58 pm

So chemical weapons can kill thousands of civilians, make places uninhabitable, but they're not WMDs.

Okay then.
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