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The Belmont

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The Belmont

Unread postby Nicastro13 » Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:56 am

Anyone gonna take down Big Brown?

Here's my bets, let me know what anyone else thinks

1-4-5 Exacta and Tri Boxes

3-7 exacta box

5-10 exacta box

5-4-1-10 Superfecta
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Unread postby BooyaCS » Fri Jun 06, 2008 8:49 pm

If your betting to actually win some money then no don't bet on big brown. A $5 bet wins you 2. Your best bet is for Casino drive (if he is healthy).

This is why I don't bet racing like this there is no real money in it. However a cold trifecta of 1 - 5 - 4 if Casino runs. If not then 1 - 4 - 3 Tri might pay good.

Finally I don't believe the hype that this horse is not for real. I know his Beyer rating for the Preakness was 100 (check out the time of smarty jones 1:55 and change and he gets a 118???) But his European Timeform number was 132 after the derby (Curlin's was 131 after the Dubai world Cup).
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Unread postby pup » Fri Jun 06, 2008 10:57 pm

Gotta lay something on a 4-horser without Big Brown. With the bad hoof, if he gets a bad run, there is no way he gets pushed hard to sneak into the top 4. Disermo (sp?) will pull back if he doesn't think he has it.
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Unread postby BooyaCS » Fri Jun 06, 2008 11:16 pm

Desormoux is what I think you mean and Big Brown doesn't have a bad hoof Casino drive does (the quarter crack is nothing and the hoof specialist is a doctor I don't think he would risk his reputation if something happened to the horse).

Anyhow betting to win money you don't bet Big Brown. Not at 2/5 odds. Casino Drive is the "sexy" pick but he won the Peter Pan having to get pushed across the line. Big Brown won a race 2/8 of a mile longer hand ridden. Just some thought. Also the only race where they have raced on the same distance is the FL derby and the Peter pan. Big Brown was in .29 of Casino Drive's time and Big Brown wasn't really trying in that one either.

I guess there are still going to be questions out there. How bad did Casino Drive hurt his hoof. Is the Quarter Crack that big of a deal for Big Brown? What about Denis of Cork or Ank Nail (sp) (who won a maiden on turf at 1.5 miles).
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Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Jun 07, 2008 12:08 am

BooyaCS wrote:Desormoux is what I think you mean and Big Brown doesn't have a bad hoof Casino drive does (the quarter crack is nothing and the hoof specialist is a doctor I don't think he would risk his reputation if something happened to the horse).

Anyhow betting to win money you don't bet Big Brown. Not at 2/5 odds. Casino Drive is the "sexy" pick but he won the Peter Pan having to get pushed across the line. Big Brown won a race 2/8 of a mile longer hand ridden. Just some thought. Also the only race where they have raced on the same distance is the FL derby and the Peter pan. Big Brown was in .29 of Casino Drive's time and Big Brown wasn't really trying in that one either.

I guess there are still going to be questions out there. How bad did Casino Drive hurt his hoof. Is the Quarter Crack that big of a deal for Big Brown? What about Denis of Cork or Ank Nail (sp) (who won a maiden on turf at 1.5 miles).


Booya is on the right track here, more succinctly put, probably better off not betting this race.

Big Brown IMO should be, and probably will go off as, a bigger favorite than he is now, and, it's hard to make cash at the current number. If you are wagering on a combo should Brown falter...kinda like throwin' darts.
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Jun 07, 2008 8:28 am

No one is beating Big Brown. I'd be shocked.

I'm going to once again tie him up in a bunck of exactas, tris, and supers and hope to get lucky. A big one boxed, some straights with BB winning. I'll post em when I make em.
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Unread postby Guest » Sat Jun 07, 2008 1:05 pm

Casino Drive is OUT
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Unread postby Jennifer » Sat Jun 07, 2008 7:01 pm

Swerb wrote:No one is beating Big Brown. I'd be shocked.

I'm going to once again tie him up in a bunck of exactas, tris, and supers and hope to get lucky. A big one boxed, some straights with BB winning. I'll post em when I make em.
My Uncle when he was young was a big follower of harness racing and one thing he learned and taught me is there are no such things as "locks" in horse racing.

Be interesting to findout whether the horse didn't feel like running today, if something internal went amiss or the lack of steroids were the reason for today's outcome.
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Unread postby pup » Sat Jun 07, 2008 10:13 pm

Pup wrote:Gotta lay something on a 4-horser without Big Brown. With the bad hoof, if he gets a bad run, there is no way he gets pushed hard to sneak into the top 4. Disermo (sp?) will pull back if he doesn't think he has it.


Sometimes.....
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Unread postby BooyaCS » Sat Jun 07, 2008 10:24 pm

The horse was out of gas there were no major horses in his pedigree that had any distance to them only speed. Boundary sired only sprinters and Mien never raced.
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Unread postby swerb » Mon Jun 09, 2008 8:41 am

I still can't believe what I saw Saturday.

This is the third time in the last 7-8 years that I was absolutely positive that I would see a Triple Crown winner for the first time in my lifetime.

~Fusaichi Pegasus (injured in Belmont)
~Smarty Jones (upset by Birdsong in Belmont)
~Big Brown (upset by DaTara in Belmont)

The mystique surrounding the elusiveness of the Triple Crown carries on. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
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Unread postby Nicastro13 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:22 am

why couldnt i of been the guy to throw a buck at the old 6-4-8-9 or 9-8 super, crazy payouts when the 38-1 wins the race. I ended up changing my bets when casino went down, and of course no 6 anywhere in sight. I was friends with a Tara in Highschool and really couldnt stand her..figures.
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