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Preakness

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Preakness

Unread postby swerb » Fri May 16, 2008 11:19 am

Anyone? Any other degenerates out there layin' down on the Preakness tomorrow?

Anyone got a chance to beat Big Brown? This horse running on such a short break a legitimate concern? How good of a horse is Gayego? Who of all these 20-1 to 35-1 horses has the best shot to come in an exacta or trifecta with Big Brown?

Anyone?
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Unread postby peeker643 » Fri May 16, 2008 11:34 am

I'm just hoping there are no meat wagons on the track moments after the race.

The Derby was less than 'family viewing material' given that chaos.

And if someone as to be put down afterward, let it be a jockey. That way PETA will have no cause to erupt given it was just a human life that was lost.

I don't know dick about these horses but I do know every year the Derby winner is anointed the next triple-crown winner and goes off at horribly unfavorable odds. And I also believe it's been 30 years since there was actually a triple crown winner.

By all accounts this isn't a 'special' horse but the fields are weak. Still, I'd go 'field' if I had to lay down cash.

You betting it Rich? You sound like a Yankee Bravo' fan to me. :lol:
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Unread postby swerb » Fri May 16, 2008 11:44 am

Unique Preakness.

Big Brown is a monster favorite. 1-2 right now, could go off at 1-3. The horse has always had at least like 6 weeks between races though, and only run like four as a 3 year old.

Only one horse (Gayego) from the Derby in the Preakness. This has only happened one other time in history. All those horses and trainers apparently don't want to waste the time and money to get crushed by Big Brown.

So you have a whole new field. A weak field. But a fresh field. None of these horses ran 2 weeks ago, almost all are sporting 4-5-6 week layoffs, so they'll be rested and fresh. That said, not one horse in this field has ever run a race as fast as Big Brown's worst race. He toyed with the field at The Derby, and showed he was in a different class down the stretch. Reminded me of what Smarty Jones did to the field at the Derby. Dominant.

No Triple Crown winners in 30 years, yet we've seen a lot of horses win the Derby and then come back and dominate the Preakness ... before eventually struggling with the extra quarter mile at Belmont, and three races in 6 weeks.

I would be shocked if Big Brown doesn't win this race. But the price point ...

Im torn. Finishing researching the rest of the field today. You got Big Brown, Gayego at 8-1, and no other horse less than like 25-1 right now. Its insane.

I'll prolly tie up Big Brown in a couple boxed exactas and trifectas and try and get lucky. Maybe isolate one longshot and do some things with it.
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Unread postby swerb » Fri May 16, 2008 2:57 pm

Alright, here's what I got ...

1. Big Brown (1-2 odds)

Simply in a different class than the rest of these horses, more suited for a race like the Ohio Derby than the Preakness. None of these horses were good enough to even qualify for The Kentucky Derby (sans Gayego) and theres only three in the field with graded stakes wins. Even if Big Brown bounces, it still wins this race.

2. Stevil (30-1 odds)

Nick Zito's horse is a longshot in this one and for good reason. The horse hasn't won a race in seven months, and hasn't even finished in the money as a three year old, finishing 4th in the Bluegrass and 5th in the 9 horse Louisiana Derby. This horse always runs hard though, never runs a really poor race, has worked out really well this week, and Zito has been very close here at the Preakness he last three years. With this weak field, I like Stevil to surprise people and come in second, adding some much needed juice to the exotic payouts.

3. Gayego (8-1 odds)

Gayego was a huge disappointment to me (I bet him) and others at the Derby, coming in at respectable 19-1 odds in the 20 horse field, then finishing 17th, and FIFTY lengths behind Big Brown. Gayego got squeezed out of the gates, then again on the back stretch, and lost focus and faltered badly down the stretch. That said, this is clearly the 2nd best horse in this field, and should run well here after the Derby disappointment. Wearing blinders for the first time ever to help focus the horse and prevent the poor track positioning from two weeks ago. If this horse just runs, and gives a top effort, its the only horse in the field that can potentially challenge Big Brown.

4. Racecar Rhapsody (30-1 odds)

Could go off closer to 50-1, and could be the one long shot that really spices up the exotic bet payouts. The horse has not fared well against even lesser competition than this field, but is training sharply, and the distance suits him. Trainer Ken McPeek (Peekers uncle) is the guy that won the '02 Belmont with 70-1 longshot Sarava, and likes the way his horse has looked this week in preparations.

5. Kentucky Bear (15-1 odds)

The odds on favorite to finish third behind Big Brown and Gayego, Kentucky Bear's trainer has been very boisterous in hyping his horse ever since arriving in Pimlico, calling out Big Brown on an almost daily basis. Poor efforts in his last two races, but had legit excuses. Was just shy of earning enough $$$ to qualify for the Derby two weeks ago and has been looking to this race as the horses Super Bowl for six weeks now.

6. Giant Moon 30-1
7. Hey Byrn 20-1
8. Macho Again 20-1
9. Icabad Crane 30-1
10. Tres Borrachos 30-1
11. Yankee Bravo 15-1
12. Riley Tucker 30-1
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Unread postby Guest » Sat May 17, 2008 11:02 am

Behindatthebar 7-1 for me
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Unread postby peeker643 » Sat May 17, 2008 11:48 am

FightDr wrote:Behindatthebar 7-1 for me


I thought that horse pulled out??

Unless you're actually saying that you were left behind at the bar last night or something. And with the crowd you hang with, I'd give smaller odds than 7-1 on that.

3-2 at best.
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Unread postby swerb » Sat May 17, 2008 12:38 pm

FightDr wrote:Behindatthebar 7-1 for me

Scratched like 4 days ago, bruised hoof.

Big Brown 1-9 odds right now. 1-9.

My sleeper Stevil at 45-1.
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Unread postby TonyBagadonuts » Sat May 17, 2008 1:16 pm

Here's what I did today Swerbie. These four horses boxed up in a trifecta.

Big Brown, Hey Byrn, Racecar Rhapsody, & Macho Again.
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Unread postby CarolinaTribe » Sat May 17, 2008 1:51 pm

1-9 is crazy. Sounds like a Field-Big Brown exacta could have a nice payday to it similar to the Field-Smarty Jones exacta in the Belmont a few years back.

I'm calling Macho Again-Big Brown.
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Unread postby Guest » Sat May 17, 2008 3:08 pm

I put my play in a few days ago, jinxed that horse.
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Unread postby swerb » Sat May 17, 2008 5:40 pm

My annual $90 donation ...

$2 Tri box ( $48 )

7 - Big Brown
9 - Stevil
6 - Racecar Rhapsody
12 - Gayego

$4 WPS ($12) 9 - Stevil
$4 WPS ($12) 6 - Racecar Rhapsody

Assorted $2 exotics ( $18 )

7-12-8
7-12-9
7-12-6
7-9-6
7-8-6

7-9
7-6

7-12-9-6
7-12-6-9
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Unread postby swerb » Sat May 17, 2008 6:23 pm

DOMINANT

Folks, this is going to be your first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed 30 years ago.

No one is beating this horse, and the mile and a half at Belmont ain't gonna bother him like it has the others before him that won the first two legs and faltered there.
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Unread postby peeker643 » Sat May 17, 2008 6:33 pm

From the final turn down the stretch that horse had a gear the others just didn't have.

"Never felt the sting of the whip. He did it all himself".

Jockey was looking back for any reason to run him. Instead he starts pulling him up to ease him across the line.

I know you can only run against whoever else is racing but the competition is weak.

Any of that $90 coming back?
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Unread postby swerb » Sat May 17, 2008 10:17 pm

Peeker643 wrote:From the final turn down the stretch that horse had a gear the others just didn't have.

"Never felt the sting of the whip. He did it all himself".

Jockey was looking back for any reason to run him. Instead he starts pulling him up to ease him across the line.

I know you can only run against whoever else is racing but the competition is weak.

Any of that $90 coming back?

Nope. All off shore in Antigua.

Pretty highly touted horse that will run against Big Brown in the Belmont. Casino Drive. Romped by six lengths last weekend in the grade I Peter Pan stakes. Was also ridden by Desormeaux, will be interesting to see who rides him in NY. Held this horse out and prepped him to run at Belmont, electing not to make the trips to Churchill and Pimlico.

Three weeks to talk about it. Belmont's gonna be real fun this year.
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