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National Title Game

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National Title Game

Unread postby swerb » Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:33 pm

It's looking more and more like the Buckeyes will still be able to get in even if they were to lose a close game to Michigan.

Seeing as how losing to Michigan is not an option, it's looking like the following teams will be jockeying to be our opponent in the national title game.

FAVORITES

Michigan - One loss will be to us. How bad they lose will determine how far they fall in the poll. They will likely need the SEC Championship game winner to have two losses.

Auburn/Florida winner - Likely SEC title game matchup. Both have one loss. Winner of this game will be the Buckeyes opponent IMO, provided they do not stumble again. Florida plays at Florida State. Auburn has to beat UGA at home, win at Alabama ... and hope Arkansas loses 2 of the following 3 games: at So Car, Tenn, LSU ... which they should.

West V/Louisville winner - Assuming they go undefeated. West V plays at Pitt and hosts Rutgers. Louisville is at Pitt and at Rutgers.

LONGSHOTS

USC - Still has a good shot if they stay at one loss. Play three straight games against Cal, Oregon, ND ... no way they win all three, even though all three are at home.

Texas - The rest of their games are very winnable before a Big 12 title game vs the winner of next weeks Nebraska/Mizzou game.

Tennessee - Needs to win out (LSU, at Ark, at Vandy, Kentucky) and have Florida to lose to FSU to get into SEC title game. If they get into that game and win it, they are going to be right there.

Notre Dame - Would have to run the table and would also need all kinds of help. Vs UNC, at Army, Air Force before trip to USC to end season.

California - Would also have to run table and get help. Plays UCLA, at Arizona, at USC, Stanford.
Last edited by swerb on Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:21 pm

I'm telling you, it'll be OSU/Michigan all over again in the National Title game. Only way it isn't is if one absolutely blows out the other. If Michigan loses by 10 points or less, I can't see them dropping much.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Thu Nov 02, 2006 2:34 pm

If Louisville wins tonight and wins out, IMO they deserve to be ahead of all the one loss teams. Here is why...

They won all their games. Period. Florida, Texas, Auburn, USC, Notre Dame, Tennessee, and Cal did not. They had their chance and they lost. Same goes for Mich when they lose. And...

Lousiville did make an attempt to play some tough out of conference games. It's not their fault Miami sucks. These games are scheduled years in advance. They also scheduled K-State on the road. It was only 3 years ago that K-State was a perennial top 15 team and played in a BCS Bowl.

If WVU wins this one and wins out, they don't deserve shit. They should be ashamed of themselves for this non-conference schedule. Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Nov 02, 2006 2:47 pm

I think Florida is a sleeper.

They are 4th in the BCS.....only 71 points behind WV. But, the key here, is they are 7th in the polls. If they were to move up to 3rd or 4th in the polls at season's end, that jump of 3-4 poll slots would be HUGE and I think they end up ahead of an undefeated WV/Louisville team.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/BCSStandings

Being 7th vs 3rd in the olling rankings is a difference of .1600 points, which is a TON of points they could gain.
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Unread postby GreatGoo » Thu Nov 02, 2006 3:15 pm

Is it true that the bucks have such a lead in the BCS right now that even if they lose to Michigan they will still be in the national championship game? Obviously they cant get blown out. But we all know that will never happen.

So if the game is close no matter who wins, the national championship game will still be OSU vs Michigan.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Nov 02, 2006 3:18 pm

Depends on how far OSU/Michigan drop in the polls. TO still get to the NC game, the loser probably has to be no worse than #3 in the poll average.
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Unread postby swerb » Thu Nov 02, 2006 3:48 pm

I think that the Buckeyes should still be OK if they lose a close game to Michigan.

Here's how I see it shaking out ...

Louisville wins tonight, but loses either at Pitt or Rutgers. Big East ends up having three one loss teams in WVU, Louisville, Rutgers at seasons end.

Florida bitchslaps FSU, then beats Auburn/Arkansas in the SEC Championship.

USC loses another game. Texas doesn't, but will be behind Florida in the polls, killing any chance of a national title game spot.

OSU beats Michigan. How badly they beat them will determine whether or not the national title game is OSU-Florida, or a OSU-Michigan rematch.
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Unread postby furls » Thu Nov 02, 2006 6:08 pm

Big Least: West Vagina (and they end up going to the NC game).
Big Ten: OSU beats Michigan soundly ending their chances at a rematch.
SEC: Florida beats Arkansas for the SEC title
PAC 10: USC beats ND, Loses to Cal
Cal wins out goes to the Rosebowl (beats Michigan)


West Virginia will win out and get a chance at the National Title game because of a preceived strength of schedule from the gaudy Pitt, Rutgers, Louisville, and West Virginia. Ignore the fact that none of those teams have played anyone.

I am disgusted with West Virginia's schedule. Did you know they get to pick 5 of their opponents? who did they pick?

Eastern Washington
Marshall
Maryland
East Carolina
Mississippi State

Screw them.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Thu Nov 02, 2006 9:08 pm

yargs7 wrote:If WVU wins this one and wins out, they don't deserve shit. They should be ashamed of themselves for this non-conference schedule. Marshall, Eastern Washington, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State.


My previously stated opinion of West Vagina.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Nov 02, 2006 11:15 pm

Two minutes left in the 3rd quarter, 30-21 Louisville. I'm inpressed with neither team. In fact, any team in the Top 10 should be able to put 50 on both of these team's horrible defenses. Both are severely over-rated, and I hope regardless what happens tonight, voters take notice. Neither of these teams would have a chance against anyone in the top 10.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Thu Nov 02, 2006 11:21 pm

I agree. Pat White is running in wide open spaces. West Vagina's 400 pound fullback is getting 8 yards a pop. On the other side, Brohm is hitting recievers without a DB within 10 yards of them. Louisville has about 7000 yards right now.

Could you imagine Troy Smith and the OSU offense against these teams? MY GAWD.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Nov 02, 2006 11:41 pm

WV is awful.

Those two voters in CA who have been giving them 1st place votes all year should have their voting privileges revoked.

The Big East is a JOKE! It wouldn't surprise me if after this game, that Lousiville wins and actually DROPS in the polls.
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Unread postby Guest » Fri Nov 03, 2006 10:56 am

I think Louisville could hang with a few teams just because of their offense.
Brian Brohm will a sure fire first rounder in the NFL.
The D they play stinks but there are a few teams I could see them beating.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Nov 03, 2006 11:09 am

It all should be a moot point, as one of Rutgers/Pitt will knock L-ville off. It looks like it might very well come down to the Bucks/Michigan winner playing the Bucks-Mich loser/SEC Champ/Texas in the NC game.

If the SEC championship game ends up being FLorida/Auburn, then I think it is almost a virtual lock that the winner of that game gets the NC bid unless the OSU/Mich game is such a great game and close, that the loser doesn't drop at all and both stay #1 and #2.
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Unread postby Guest » Fri Nov 03, 2006 12:31 pm

I see Louisville running the table
Rutgers struggled with UConn
Pitt might lose to South Florida tomorrow
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Unread postby swerb » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:45 pm

Troy Smith and the Buckeyes offense would skewer the Louisville D so badly that the telecast would be rated NC-17.

I almost want to see it happen. A 51-10 beating in the national championship game would change the title game landscape as we know it. No longer would many pollsters feel obliged to put 0 loss teams ahead of one loss teams like Florida, Texas, and Auburn.
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Unread postby furls » Fri Nov 03, 2006 2:54 pm

exactly Swerb.

I was thinking, that I wanted to see the Buckeyes play a good team and have a good game. Each week I am becoming more convinced that there is not a good game out there for them.

I think it would quite nice to see them put 40 up in the first half against a miserable Big East team. That game would be laughable. Jim Tressel with 50 days to prepare for Louisville....

It would make last years performace against Notre Dame look pedestrian.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Nov 03, 2006 3:13 pm

Rich, I agree. In a sick way, I hope we play Louisville, because if we do, the beating they take may be worse than the one Nicky Santoro took with the baseball bats at the end of Casino.

Touch choice though. Do I wish for Louisville in the NC game and blow them out and prove that the Big East does not belong n such talk? Or, do I wish for a 1-loss Florida/Auburn/Texas/Michigan club to get in, and then all this turmoil with who plays OSU and who is left in the cold, including an undefeated L-ville squad.

Good Lord. We need an 8-team playoff.
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Unread postby swerb » Fri Nov 03, 2006 3:48 pm

Good Lord. We need an 8-team playoff.


How sweet would this be?

#1 Ohio State
#8 USC

#4 Florida
#5 Auburn

#3 Louisville
#6 Texas

#2 Michigan
#7 Tennessee
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Nov 03, 2006 4:00 pm

Wow. Can anyone imagine what a playoff would be like in college football? It would make March Madness look like Vern Troyer in comparison.
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Unread postby furls » Fri Nov 03, 2006 5:32 pm

I love the playoff thing, I really do, but here is the problem.

Right now there are 754 bowl games and everyone is getting a cut. Most schools/conferences have different financial arrangements, but the bottom line is that the money is more evenly distributed. If they were to make BCS playoffs, it would undermine the viability of the other bowls altogether and reduce all the little schools/conferences pocket books.

Now we all know that the BCS playoffs would generate HUGE piles of money, but the argument that we would stumble into is that the money would be centralized into the pockets of the power conferences.

Here is my thought on the current system, and why this thinking is flawed. If they revamped the college postseason intelligibly they could actually force schools to play a tougher schedule by placing more weight into strength of schedule. The added financial windfall to the NCAA in the form of additional television dollars generated by having an OSU vs. Texas style game every week could offset this loss to minor conferences.

Right now the NCAA has a product that is almost every bit as good as the NFL. The quality of play is obviously not quite as good, but there are intangibles in the NCAA that make the overall product nearly as good. Right now, the NCAA runs the risk, simply by the system that is in place right now, of making itself the next NHL.

I would love to see the bracket Swerb made, but with the addition of the 12th game all my hopes of an eight team playoff went down the toilet. Now I guess all I can do is sit on my thumbs and watch OSU POUND Youngstown St. next year.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Nov 03, 2006 6:09 pm

Furls wrote:Right now there are 754 bowl games and everyone is getting a cut. Most schools/conferences have different financial arrangements, but the bottom line is that the money is more evenly distributed. If they were to make BCS playoffs, it would undermine the viability of the other bowls altogether and reduce all the little schools/conferences pocket books.

Now we all know that the BCS playoffs would generate HUGE piles of money, but the argument that we would stumble into is that the money would be centralized into the pockets of the power conferences.


I am not sure about that.

You could still have the bowls for the teams that don't make the 8-16 team NC tourney. Would viewership or sponsorship really suffer in those bowls compared to what they get now? People will still either not watch because they can't stand most of the bowls (like me), or people just love football and will watch them still.

Having an 8 team playoff doesn't take much away from the other bowls. Right now, we already consider the BCS Bowls as the big ones that truly matter anyway....which ends up as 5 bowl games. An 8-team playoff results in 2 additional games.
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Unread postby furls » Fri Nov 03, 2006 8:31 pm

well right now all bowl games are considered "post season," granted some are obviously larger than others. Now if they instituted a playoff I think it would result in an NCAA/NIT type situation. There is an NIT tournament, just like there will be non tournament bowl games, but no one would care.

The other part of the argument that you hear alot is that this would detract from the regular season, I contend that this would in fact add to the regular season by making it ok to step out of conference and play a tough team.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Fri Nov 03, 2006 9:53 pm

Furls wrote:Now I guess all I can do is sit on my thumbs and watch OSU POUND Youngstown St. next year.


Whoa! Take it easy on YSU, man. Tress will take it easy on his old school and OSU will only win 63-0.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Nov 04, 2006 8:44 am

Furls wrote:There is an NIT tournament, just like there will be non tournament bowl games, but no one would care.


Outside of the BCS Bowl games we currently have, does anyone really care about any of the other bowls currently? :wink:
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Nov 04, 2006 9:26 am

Outside of the BCS Bowl games we currently have, does anyone really care about any of the other bowls currently?


Yes.

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The 480 million Americans that gamble
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Nov 04, 2006 10:28 am

Swerb wrote:Yes.

Sincerely,

The 480 million Americans that gamble


And those 480 million Americans who gamble would care just as much for an NIT style of Bowl games if there was a 8-16 team tourney, no? :wink:
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Nov 04, 2006 11:33 am

It could be Bumfuck State versus the University of Stiffville for all I care. Shown at 2 AM on Spike TV.

Give me some past reults to analyze and a pointspread and Im there.
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Unread postby The Score » Mon Nov 06, 2006 5:16 pm

I'm against a playoff. I like the current system, a 14 week playoff.

The upcoming #1 OSU v. #2 UM would be almost meaningless in a playoff scenario. Both teams would be in and just jockeying for position. OSU v. Texas wouldn't have mattered either.

The college football season becomes much less compelling if there is an 8 team playoff.
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Unread postby pup » Mon Nov 06, 2006 6:51 pm

The upcoming #1 OSU v. #2 UM would be almost meaningless in a playoff scenario. Both teams would be in and just jockeying for position. OSU v. Texas wouldn't have mattered either


Maybe this year, but say Ohio State had lost to Texas and Michigan had a loss. These two teams would be about 4 and 7 right now, so the loser could very easily be left out.
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Unread postby The Score » Tue Nov 07, 2006 3:31 pm

Maybe this year, but say Ohio State had lost to Texas and Michigan had a loss. These two teams would be about 4 and 7 right now, so the loser could very easily be left out.


I guess I'm more of the opinion that I value the undefeateds moreso than teams that have already lost.

I would prefer a world where 1 v. 2 matters more than 4 v. 7.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:51 am

Wow. We all pretty much know the winner of OSU/Michigan gets one bid to the title game.....but seeing how things shake out in this scramble for the second bid is going to be CRAZY and CONTROVERSIAL these final few weeks.

I love it though. Would be beautiful to see 3-4 one loss teams all claiming they should get that spot....just hope my Buckeyes are the ones already in so we can watch the craziness from afar.
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Unread postby yargs7 » Fri Nov 10, 2006 1:41 am

SEE YA LOUISVILLE! Rutgers is a non factor regardless of what they do from here on out.

So the question remains...Which of the one loss teams will win out? And which one of them will face Ohio State in the Championship?
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Unread postby swerb » Fri Nov 10, 2006 8:45 am

I'm standing by my initial prediction from weeks ago.

It's going to be a dogfight between the winner of the SEC Championship and the loser of OSU/Mich for the spot in the title game opposite the winner of The Game.
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Nov 11, 2006 11:27 am

Interesting column projecting the BCS matchups.

http://cfn.scout.com/2/589124.html

OSU - Florida ... I agree with that projection

But check out some of these other nasty games ...

Jan 1 - Rose: Michigan/USC (good game)

Jan 1 - Fiesta: Texas/Boise St (ouch)

Jan 2 - Orange: Ga Tech/Louisville (zzzz)

Jan 3 - Sugar: Notre Dame/Auburn (another ND loss in a game they aren't qualified to play in)
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Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 11, 2006 1:07 pm

these dudes are smoking crack.
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