Text Size

College Sports Arena

Most Overated Teams (PROVEN)

Talk Buckeye football and hoops, Viking hoops, as well as all other discussion on college sports in here.

Moderators: peeker643, swerb, danwismar, furls

Most Overated Teams (PROVEN)

Unread postby yargs7 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:07 pm

The Herd was talking about this today on ESPN Radio. I had to check it out myself. Some guy went back and did some great research on which college football teams are most commonly ranked high at the begining of the season only fail to meet expectations.

He listed 31 teams going back to 1971 and it is based on the AP poll...

Least overrated-Miami #31

Buckeyes #25 (Which is good on this list)
Michigan #24 (Very suprised, but this goes back to the Bo Era)

Top 10
#10 T.UCLA-Texas
#9 Colorado
#8 Notre Dame (The Irish overated? really? noooooooo.)
#7 Auburn
#6 UNC
#5 Arkansas
#4 Pitt
#3 Arizona St
#2 Wisconsin
#1 Michigan St.

http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2006 ... dTeams.htm
"You win with people"

-W.W. "Woody" Hayes
User avatar
yargs7
College Football Nut
 
Posts: 583
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:05 am
Location: Austintown, OH

Unread postby swerb » Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:59 pm

Great column Yargs. Not surpisingly, those are all teams that have absolutely killed me against the spread over the last 15 years.

Michigan State, Pitt, ASU, UNC ... I'll have to look it up, but I would guess those 4 especially have been brutal ATS.
User avatar
swerb
JoBu's bee-yotch
 
Posts: 17875
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 5:04 pm
Location: Twinsburg, OH
Favorite Player: Mango Hab
Least Favorite Player: Bob LaMonte

Unread postby furls » Mon Jun 05, 2006 3:58 pm

That list is not really surprising. The biggest surprise to me was that ND was only the 8th most overrated team. I will cut the Irish some slack, the brutality of the schedule that they play every year ensures that by the end of the season they are all but assured at least 2-3 losses. If you start the year ranked 5 and you lose 5 games, you will not end the year in the top 5!

It was an interesting read for sure, but I think their statistical model is abit flawed. I love the idea and if I were a glutton for punishment and had copious free time to do the research, I would try to improve on it.

My basic gripe is that the current system does not really take into account a "strength of schedule" and it would be impossible to build in. Basically, you see how FSU is ranked 30th? While they did rip off an impressive run of top 5 seasons, it was as the only major program in the ACC. Remember, back then the ACC was absolutely ridiculous with the exception of FSU. Hard to fall ranking spots when you are playing pop warner football. Similar application of that general rule applies to VaTech, and Miami.

I am a Buckeyes homer for sure, but I am not surprised to see that with this model the Buckeyes do well. Under this model, the typical Buckeyes team (numbers made up off the top of my head) starts the year at number 15-20 seems to end up 10-15. In general they do seem to come into every season underrated.

Frankly, I hate the polling system although in its current form, the NCAA regular season is literally like playing a playoff game every week. MY BIGGEST GRIP: BRING BACK THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE ASPECT TO THE BCS CALCULATIONS. Lets reward teams like OSU and Texas for playing each other at the risk of National Championships. (buckeyes actually have a home and home coming up with USC too).
User avatar
furls
Buckeye Insider
 
Posts: 6404
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Chic Harley
Least Favorite Player: Desmond Howard

Unread postby swerb » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:08 pm

Swerb wrote:Michigan State, Pitt, ASU, UNC ... I'll have to look it up, but I would guess those 4 especially have been brutal ATS.

Michigan St is 15-20 ATS in 4 years under John L Smith

Pitt is 21-23 ATS the last 4 years

North Carolina is 23-22-1 ATS the last 4 years

Arizona St is 26-30 ATS in 5 years under Dirk Koetter
User avatar
swerb
JoBu's bee-yotch
 
Posts: 17875
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 5:04 pm
Location: Twinsburg, OH
Favorite Player: Mango Hab
Least Favorite Player: Bob LaMonte

Unread postby GreatGoo » Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:45 pm

MSU- They do let down a lot. They are always ranked in the top 15 every year going into the Michigan and OSU game. Then the hurt begin. Its very depressing and I'm preparing myself already for this year.

OSU- They are highly over ranked in my opinion. Okay so they finished strong. But they really didn't beat anyone of significant. Don't even try to argue that ND was a great team last year. They were weak.

Troy Smith is going to suck it up so bad this year that Tressel is going to have to replace him.
User avatar
GreatGoo
Awaiting First Championship
 
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:49 pm
Location: Fairview Park
Favorite Player: TBD
Least Favorite Player: Larry Hughes

Unread postby furls » Fri Jun 23, 2006 4:35 pm

OSU- They are highly over ranked in my opinion. Okay so they finished strong. But they really didn't beat anyone of significant. Don't even try to argue that ND was a great team last year. They were weak.

Troy Smith is going to suck it up so bad this year that Tressel is going to have to replace him.


wow, lots of facts there. Nice work. You are basing this on what? Who was good last year? OSU played Texas (the national champs) to within a field goal. ND nearly beat USC (#2 team). Ohio State KILLED ND. They were a strong team and at the end of the year, I am not sure that there was a team in college football that wanted to play them.
User avatar
furls
Buckeye Insider
 
Posts: 6404
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Chic Harley
Least Favorite Player: Desmond Howard

Unread postby GreatGoo » Fri Jun 23, 2006 5:51 pm

MSU beat ND at ND!

What does that mean?

PS- Nice penn state game!
User avatar
GreatGoo
Awaiting First Championship
 
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:49 pm
Location: Fairview Park
Favorite Player: TBD
Least Favorite Player: Larry Hughes

Unread postby furls » Fri Jun 23, 2006 7:54 pm

OSU beat ND like a redheaded step child, oh yeah, and they beat MSU.

Hmmm, Penn State also won a BCS bowl too didnt they? I guess they must not have been any good either.
User avatar
furls
Buckeye Insider
 
Posts: 6404
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Chic Harley
Least Favorite Player: Desmond Howard

Unread postby yargs7 » Sat Jun 24, 2006 3:04 am

Troy Smith replaced by Tressel because he is going to suck it up so bad? Yeah and Belichik is going to yank Brady too. I also heard Pat Riley is moving Dwayne Wade to the bench...Any other wise predictions, Nostradamus?
"You win with people"

-W.W. "Woody" Hayes
User avatar
yargs7
College Football Nut
 
Posts: 583
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 10:05 am
Location: Austintown, OH

Unread postby GreatGoo » Sat Jun 24, 2006 10:19 am

Troy Smith looked like an ace the first 6 games of the season!

HAHAHAHA yeah right! :lol:
User avatar
GreatGoo
Awaiting First Championship
 
Posts: 605
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:49 pm
Location: Fairview Park
Favorite Player: TBD
Least Favorite Player: Larry Hughes

Unread postby furls » Sat Jun 24, 2006 2:07 pm

Hmmmm, considering smith didnt get many reps during the summer last year it is not surprising that he was a bit rusty. Although, his stats for the first 6 games of the year last year were pretty good:

DATE OPP RESULT CMP ATT YDS CMP% LNG TD INT RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
9/3 Miami (OHIO) W 34-14 Did Not Play or No Stats Accumulated
9/10 Texas L 25-22 5 11 78 45.5 36 1 0 135.02 13 27 2.1 11 0
9/17 San Diego State W 27-6 14 26 149 53.8 25 0 1 94.29 14 87 6.2 14 2
9/24 Iowa W 31-6 13 19 191 68.4 46 2 0 187.60 18 127 7.1 28 2
10/8 @Penn State L 17-10 13 25 139 52.0 26 0 1 90.70 19 15 0.8 10 1
10/15 Michigan State W 35-24 10 15 249 66.7 57 3 0 272.11 7 42 6.0 9 1
10/22 @Indiana W 41-10 14 23 226 60.9 28 1 1 149.06 12 55 4.6 23 2


His last 5 games were among the best in the NCAA and that is what really counts. That is when Smith made the transition from run first to throw first QB.

Dude, if you are a Buckeye hater that is fine. Wanna say Tedd Ginn Jr. is a track star masquerading as a football player, go ahead. That is a defensible position. Troy Smith benched, that is laughable. THe only way Smith ends up benched is if it is due to an off the field incident.
User avatar
furls
Buckeye Insider
 
Posts: 6404
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2006 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Chic Harley
Least Favorite Player: Desmond Howard


Return to College Sports Arena

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

Who is online

In total there is 1 user online :: 0 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 181 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:50 pm

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest