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Ohio State Vs. Penn State Predictions:

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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Oct 28, 2007 3:55 pm

Peeker643 wrote:I hope they're focused solely on Illinois. This just isn't the year to look past anybody in any week.


If they're focused on Illinois right now then they have a problem because it's Wisconsin coming up. ;)

And I'm telling you guys, I smell a rat this season in Michigan. I seriously will not be surprised of Carr announces his retirement on the Monday leading up to that game just to cap off the emotional week Saturday in the Big House.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually replace Bill Martin as the AD and go on with his life.


I've that for much of the season. You either have the players knowing that Carr is leaving, so they understand this is his last OSU/UM game or they're playing for his job. I think Michigan will be aggressive and put their best foot forward.

I tend to agree with you on the retirement or promotion angle. I think it'll be known that he's leaving or moving up in the athletic department and that'll serve as a motivational tool, especially in Ann Arbor.

For Michigan, they'd like nothing better than to knock OSU out of the title game. They'll probably hope for LSU to win the whole thing so they can cause a huge stir by bringing Miles to Ann Arbor, hoping that it'll strike some fear into the hearts of other Big Ten members, especially the Buckeyes.
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Unread postby FUDU » Sun Oct 28, 2007 3:56 pm

Is anyone else getting the same feeling as me.....that Tressel is going to allow Saine's big splash to be in the Michigan game?


Yes and no.

JT does not take that game lightly by any means and IMO he is not akin to putting freshman (or relatively young talent with little real game experience) in that position. Correct me if I am wrong but has he ever given much responsibility to a ball carrier so young, and so infrequently used, in a michigan game?

I don't think so but I could be forgetting somebody.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Oct 28, 2007 5:00 pm

Chris Wells saw significant time in last years game for all the marbles. It the guy has the skills, Tressel has the stones.

Right now, I think Tressel is dealing with the reality that he probably made some promises to Maurice Wells when he was thinking about transferring that he sort of has to make good on.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Oct 28, 2007 11:50 pm

Peeker643 wrote:
Mr. MacPhisto wrote:Ohio State looked great in this game, definitely the #1 team in the country. Certainly light years beyond Boston College and looking better than LSU, etc.

It looks like the only serious threat to the Bucks getting another shot at the title is Michigan. I've said before that I think Michigan will be better prepared this year than they have been in the past, but Ohio State certainly can still win. UM will just be the biggest test prior to the bowl game.

They won't look past Wisconsin or Illinois and Michigan is the only one with the talent to put up a fight.


I hope they're focused solely on Illinois. This just isn't the year to look past anybody in any week.

And I'm telling you guys, I smell a rat this season in Michigan. I seriously will not be surprised of Carr announces his retirement on the Monday leading up to that game just to cap off the emotional week Saturday in the Big House.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him eventually replace Bill Martin as the AD and go on with his life.


Michigan did this last year as well, with the timing of Bo Schembechler's dirt nap.

And before anyone complains about that being somewhat cruel, I'm just not being hypocritical. If any Buckeye fan tells you that one his first three thoughts upon hearing of Bo's passing was NOT "Man, why on Michigan week, they are going to be motivated by this," it's a good chance they are lying.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:10 am

Lead Pipe wrote:Michigan did this last year as well, with the timing of Bo Schembechler's dirt nap.

And before anyone complains about that being somewhat cruel, I'm just not being hypocritical. If any Buckeye fan tells you that one his first three thoughts upon hearing of Bo's passing was NOT "Man, why on Michigan week, they are going to be motivated by this," it's a good chance they are lying.


I see this as different. Though Schembechler was around, he didn't have the relationship with the current players that Carr does. He didn't recruit them and coach them.

I compare it more to Earle Bruce's last hurrah. Bruce was 4-4 against Michigan going into that game and it was known that he was gone at the end of the season.

Lloyd Carr is 6-6 against Ohio State. If Michigan wins this one for Carr then he'll leave with a winning record against the Buckeyes for his career.

It may not play a factor. Even without that, this Michigan team has looked very different since losing its first two games. They've been more aggressive on offense and had a different attitude.

It's far from a guarantee that they'd win and, honestly, I'd put money on the Buckeyes if I were a betting man because Tressel has the killer instinct. Yet, I do see a Michigan team that will be more motivated than in the past few years - out to prove something after the horrid start and out to save a coach's reputation. Carr's image can be salvaged up there with a win. Like Tressel, he opened up at 5-1 against the biggest opponent but has slipped since Tressel's been in Columbus. This is the players' chance to have Carr remembered more positively than negatively, something they had no power over with Schembechler - he'd already had his legacy.
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Unread postby furls » Mon Oct 29, 2007 6:55 pm

And before anyone complains about that being somewhat cruel, I'm just not being hypocritical. If any Buckeye fan tells you that one his first three thoughts upon hearing of Bo's passing was NOT "Man, why on Michigan week, they are going to be motivated by this," it's a good chance they are lying.


I didn't think that, and I am not lying. Yeah, it makes guys emotional, but if you are not already at 100% emotional excitement for OSU vs. Michigan, well then you have no business playing for either school.

It is all bullshit. These guys know that this is the most watched game on either team's schedule and that their legacy (and maybe draft status) can hinge on that game.
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Unread postby furls » Mon Oct 29, 2007 6:59 pm

FWIW, I am not so sure that Carr retires this season. He has probably done enough to keep his job regardless of what happens with OSU vs. Michigan. I don't know anyone that has any good inside info on what Michigan's AD will do or what Carr will do.

My guess is that it is 50/50 at this point. I am not sure if he really wants to go out with App State in his last season, but this year is probably Michigan's best chance at OSU in the next year or so. Ohio State's team is really built more around next year than this year and the Game will be at the 'Shoe next year.
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Unread postby buckeyehoppy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:17 am

No matter what it says in the sig line, LLLLLLLLLLoyd Carr is the greatest coach Ohio State has ever owned.

Coach Tressel has so many tools at his disposal for the Michigan game (or, for that matter, any other game) that it should be enough to keep TSUN's D on their heels from the outset. And tOSUs D should be relatively keen enough to keep their O sputtering long enough to grab a strong advantage.

OTOH, the game is being played at A2 so the guard cannot be allowed to be let down. No matter how I down A2C2, there is a perfectly good reason why they constitute the lesser half of the best rivalry in College Football...they are always sky-freaking-high for this game and they have guys who want to bring their best to improve their status for the NFL Draft.

It should be a great game for the Bucks, but it is still three weeks away...still lots of work ahead.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Oct 30, 2007 12:37 am

Furls wrote:FWIW, I am not so sure that Carr retires this season. He has probably done enough to keep his job regardless of what happens with OSU vs. Michigan. I don't know anyone that has any good inside info on what Michigan's AD will do or what Carr will do.

My guess is that it is 50/50 at this point. I am not sure if he really wants to go out with App State in his last season, but this year is probably Michigan's best chance at OSU in the next year or so. Ohio State's team is really built more around next year than this year and the Game will be at the 'Shoe next year.


I can only tell you how my parents and other Michigan alums down here I know well are acting. When the University calls for money they tell them they're not giving a dime until Carr is gone. That goes for the athletic department and the school in general. My parents have given a lot of money to the School of Nursing and to the Athletic Department (have contributed to stadium renovations funds, etc), so UM calls them annually and they give.

They're not doing it. The App. State loss was the last straw. It was humiliating to the alumni, especially since it occurred in Ann Arbor.

Now they're not the bigtime boosters, but I'd guess that many of them have had it too. Even without the boosters, if enough alums withhold cash then the decision is made for Michigan.

The people I know all want Les Miles. All are graduates and several are large contributors to UM. They're tired of losing to Tressel and want someone in there that can win them Big Ten titles every year AND win bowl games.

They've currently got that $226 million bill for the upcoming Michigan Stadium renovation that will be funded largely by private donations. They've already been calling the alumni for money. I think they'll find the alumni less willing to give if Carr is allowed back.
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Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 30, 2007 6:01 pm

I really cannot see them firing him. He could get them off the hook by retiring, but then again he is Lllllloyd Carr and sort of does what he wants. Sure the Alums want him gone, but they have to bitch HARD for a LONG time to affect change, particularly for a guy that won a NC (ten years ago) and was doing pretty well in the rivalry.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:44 pm

Furls wrote:I really cannot see them firing him. He could get them off the hook by retiring, but then again he is Lllllloyd Carr and sort of does what he wants. Sure the Alums want him gone, but they have to bitch HARD for a LONG time to affect change, particularly for a guy that won a NC (ten years ago) and was doing pretty well in the rivalry.


I'd normally agree, but Michigan doesn't want to be left on the hook for $226M. The Athletic Department is going to cover some of it, but a massive refusal by alums to give to the renovation would force them to take action.

The people down here in contact with alums up in Michigan seem to think the Lloyd will retire from coaching and take a position higher up in the athletic department. They seem to think that some around the program are encouraging him to retire because they really don't want to can him, though a loss to Ohio State would change that very quickly.

Lloyd Carr's only chance to stay at Michigan as HC this time is to beat the Buckeyes. If they lose to the Buckeyes it would leave them with three losses in Ann Arbor, one of them to a I-AA squad, another by beatdown against Oregon, and another by losing to their arch-rival. They almost had a rebellion by alums last year and had to smooth things over.

If they hadn't lost to App. St or gotten blown out by Oregon, things might be different. Michigan alums are disgusted by Carr's record against Tressel. They know now that Tressel changed the game and upped the ante. They want to do the same thing to Ohio State and make the Buckeyes start to doubt Tressel's ability to win the big one. Les Miles is the one they think can restore Michigan to Big Ten dominance and possibly regularly compete for national titles again instead of losing often early in the season. They see 2006 as an abnormal high blip for Carr, same for 1997.

There certainly is a strong sense of entitlement with Michigan fans. They feel the Big Ten is rightfully theirs. The believe that only Notre Dame can come anywhere near their program in history and they're proud to have won more football games than everyone. They're not worried quite yet about Ohio State having an overall winning record against them, but they'd prefer to build on the lead instead of see it shrink.

I don't see Lloyd Carr there next year. I really think we'll see Les Miles in Ann Arbor as the coach next year. They like head coaches from Ohio up there (doesn't almost everybody like Ohio coaches?). I'd think it'd be cool because Miles is a fellow native of Elyria and I was born in the same hospital as he was (well, the hospital did change a bit over the years). My parents would certainly love it because he went to their high school a few years after they did.

Guess we'll wait and see.
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Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 30, 2007 10:53 pm

Alumni are powerful and can cause things to change, but they cannot directly fire anyone. Personally, I would like to see Carr get canned, but I think the chance of him actually being fired (regardless of what happens against OSU) is slim to none. He may retire, or move up in the AD, but he will not be canned.

As for Miles, he would obviously be a good upgrade for scUM, but Michigan will have to bid for him and they are pretty stingy when it comes to the whole paying coaches thing. I am not so sure that LSU would make it easy for Les to go.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:03 pm

Furls wrote:As for Miles, he would obviously be a good upgrade for scUM, but Michigan will have to bid for him and they are pretty stingy when it comes to the whole paying coaches thing. I am not so sure that LSU would make it easy for Les to go.


That's true, though the past few seasons may have opened the eyes of the Athletic Dept. If they want Miles then they can't assume he'll take a pittance just because it's Michigan. I think that's the attitude that they've taken in the past and I think the athletic department is filled with that attitude. It needs to change for them to really continue to build their legacy. The desire just doesn't seem to be there.

My personal feeling is that Miles would be able to change that attitude. He also is not above taking risks and playing to win instead of playing not to lose. I think Miles at Michigan would be good for the program and the Big Ten in general.

They'll need to be willing to pay the big buyout and outbid LSU, especially if LSU ends up winning the BCS title. I'm not sure how much a shitload is, but I'm sure Miles would ask for it if Michigan came calling after a championship season. LSU would be willing to pony up, but would Michigan?

Definitely some good points there Furls.

I do highly doubt Carr will get canned, but if he loses to Ohio State then the pressure will be very high for the AD. That might not even be an option. For all I know, Carr's already decided to move on. There were rumors about it before the season even started.
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Unread postby buckeyehoppy » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:26 pm

Mr. MacPhisto wrote:
Furls wrote:I really cannot see them firing him. He could get them off the hook by retiring, but then again he is Lllllloyd Carr and sort of does what he wants. Sure the Alums want him gone, but they have to bitch HARD for a LONG time to affect change, particularly for a guy that won a NC (ten years ago) and was doing pretty well in the rivalry.


I'd normally agree, but Michigan doesn't want to be left on the hook for $226M. The Athletic Department is going to cover some of it, but a massive refusal by alums to give to the renovation would force them to take action.

The people down here in contact with alums up in Michigan seem to think the Lloyd will retire from coaching and take a position higher up in the athletic department. They seem to think that some around the program are encouraging him to retire because they really don't want to can him, though a loss to Ohio State would change that very quickly.

Lloyd Carr's only chance to stay at Michigan as HC this time is to beat the Buckeyes. If they lose to the Buckeyes it would leave them with three losses in Ann Arbor, one of them to a I-AA squad, another by beatdown against Oregon, and another by losing to their arch-rival. They almost had a rebellion by alums last year and had to smooth things over.

If they hadn't lost to App. St or gotten blown out by Oregon, things might be different. Michigan alums are disgusted by Carr's record against Tressel. They know now that Tressel changed the game and upped the ante. They want to do the same thing to Ohio State and make the Buckeyes start to doubt Tressel's ability to win the big one. Les Miles is the one they think can restore Michigan to Big Ten dominance and possibly regularly compete for national titles again instead of losing often early in the season. They see 2006 as an abnormal high blip for Carr, same for 1997.

There certainly is a strong sense of entitlement with Michigan fans. They feel the Big Ten is rightfully theirs. The believe that only Notre Dame can come anywhere near their program in history and they're proud to have won more football games than everyone. They're not worried quite yet about Ohio State having an overall winning record against them, but they'd prefer to build on the lead instead of see it shrink.

I don't see Lloyd Carr there next year. I really think we'll see Les Miles in Ann Arbor as the coach next year. They like head coaches from Ohio up there (doesn't almost everybody like Ohio coaches?). I'd think it'd be cool because Miles is a fellow native of Elyria and I was born in the same hospital as he was (well, the hospital did change a bit over the years). My parents would certainly love it because he went to their high school a few years after they did.

Guess we'll wait and see.


Furls, I'm siding with Mac on this one.

And I might be as bold to say that the Ohio State game may not make a difference.

A buddy of mine is a TSUN alum and was part of the failed mutiny at the end of last year. But he makes a great point whenever we talk about college football that a large segment of the alumni there believes that the game has passed Carr by and coaches like Tressel have really exposed his weaknesses in failing to adapt a game plan on the fly and failing to account for the opposition's speed.

It is the reason why Tressel has been as successful against TSUN as he has been. Aside from assembling superior talent and re-inculcating the sense of urgency against rival teams and in bowl games, Tressel is a master game planner and the details of execution in the game plan are seldom overlooked.

Carr has had trouble with teams who have coaches with new ideas on how to play the game. His failure to adjust has left him in the dust against Coach Tressel and in bowl games where the opposition has features that he doesn't often see in the Big 11.

I have said before that Miles would be an odds-on favorite to take over for Carr, but I wouldn't discount someone like Bellotti or even Harbaugh, although I think Harbaugh hasn't really paid his dues at the D-I level to warrant consideration.

We'll see what happens, but the chances of Carr returning appear to be low.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Oct 30, 2007 11:44 pm

If Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden are hangin' around every Saturday, giving me a headache watching their respective teams, why not another year of Carr?
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:17 am

Lead Pipe wrote:If Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden are hangin' around every Saturday, giving me a headache watching their respective teams, why not another year of Carr?


I think they all need to be put to pasture.

buckeyehoppy, you nailed it.

I think that revolt last year is what led to the rumors of retirement this year. I wouldn't be surprised if it's already planned out and in the bag. The early season losses wouldn't have made it nearly certain if not for the losses to Ohio State and the misses in the bowl games.

Alumni know that Michigan could have beaten USC last year. They also do believe a better coach may have beaten Ohio State and given Michigan a national title (though I don't think anyone would have beaten Florida in that game, if UF would've gotten in).
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Unread postby furls » Wed Oct 31, 2007 6:25 am

Should Miles win the NC with LSU, Michigan will have to pony up 3million+ per year on a multi year deal (see Saban's contract) plus buy him out of LSU. scUM is pretty cheap. Had Harbaugh not taken those cheap shots at the beginning of the year, I could see him taking the job. Right now, the scUM alums have their heart set on Miles and anything less would be a disappointment.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that Carr will be back, I am just saying don't throw dirt over the grave (yet). scUM will not fire him and if he does not take himself out, well, then he will back, for better or worse.

As for the game passing him by.... duh. Oh yeah, and he is a douchebag and that cannot help with recruiting. Michigan has had some fairly highly ranked recruiting classes in the last five years, but we all know how I feel about those rankings and why. The fact of the matter is that scUM must go out of state to fill its roster (it has always had to) and right now they are not getting the good kids out of Ohio and Western Pa that they used to. Some are going to OSU some are going elsewhere, but the fact remains that five years ago scUM gets a kid like Brandon Saine (who wanted to go to Michigan as a kid), but not anymore.

The only thing that will change that is a new coach and some real success.
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