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Another example of the issue with college football.

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Another example of the issue with college football.

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Oct 16, 2007 7:19 pm

I am gong to go back to a slight point mac made, or makes occasionally, about perceptions and such.

]Mac has a said on occasion that teams like OSU often get a lot of benefit of the doubt due to tradition and perception, and there is at least some truth to that, how much is very difficult to say. Mac also refers to last years championship game in debates about things that end up involving OSU, even though those discussions have nothing to do with OSU last year.

This article on ESPN has a small part that really alludes to that line of thinking.


http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insider/news/story?page=bcs071&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncf%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fpage%3dbcs071


Looking ahead, the big debate sure to rage is whether an undefeated South Florida or Boston College is really better than a one-loss LSU or Oklahoma (or USC, if the Trojans start playing up to their potential). Given the perceived weakness of the Big Ten this season and Ohio State's flop in last year's championship game, some people might even ask the same question about the Buckeyes.

Now it is no secret that the Gators kicked OSU’s ass, however it was last season, despite it taking place in 2007.

My point is this, the people that are involved in college football, like voters and even the powers that shape the college football world at times, seem to have elongated memories, often times they allow this to shape perception, perception about an entirely different and quite present college football season.

The butt kicking that OSU received has absolutely nothing to do with the 2007 college football season, and nothing to do with OSU’s 2007 team or their successes or failures. However it appears that this writer, and I am sure he is not the only, one allows that past history to shape his POV on THIS college football season.

IMO that is not good.

As you can gather from reading the article he seems to think that loss should, could or would have an effect that lingers in the voters minds, again not a good thing, not for OSU’s sake but for college football’s sake, b/c at some point it would work both ways (meaning a team that wins it all one year would get preferential voting treatment the following year etc...).

2007’s rankings at any point in the season should be based on 2007 results only, no ifs ands or buts, no matter how unreasonable or irrational those reasons for rankings may be.

IMO this is something that hurts college football but unfortunately has probably zero chance of being corrected.
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Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 16, 2007 9:30 pm

It has no chance of getting better as long as polls (subjective) drive college football and its finale, but that is not going to change any time soon.

It is interesting how they vote OSU down to start the year because of the losses in the offseason, indicating that this is a very different OSU team. Then they say that since this is the SAME team that lost to Florida, that should somehow affect this year's rankings. It just points further to absurdity of the polls and the voters.
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Unread postby Spin » Tue Oct 16, 2007 11:19 pm

College $port$ are so political, and will always be that way.

There are only 8-10 schools that are eligible to play for the championship, and win the Heisman. If you're Notre Dame, you will play in a bowl game, no matter how you did during the season. It's all about $$$

And despite the 65 team tournament, basketball is not much better. When a 26 win team can't get in because .500 Dukie needs an at-large bid, it's the same story. They put the matchups together how THEY want them. Someone on the selection committee needs to learn to read the standings and a US map. It's incredible what they get away with.

We should have started a college conference. All we gotta do is set some rules, set a schedule, maintain a website, travel to games, and rake in money from membership fees, network money, bowl game money, and if we're not rich enough, we'll start a cable network and charge more money for it than any other network besides ESPN. What a tough job.
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Re: Another example of the issue with college football.

Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Oct 17, 2007 12:41 am

FUDU wrote:Now it is no secret that the Gators kicked OSU’s ass, however it was last season, despite it taking place in 2007.

My point is this, the people that are involved in college football, like voters and even the powers that shape the college football world at times, seem to have elongated memories, often times they allow this to shape perception, perception about an entirely different and quite present college football season.

The butt kicking that OSU received has absolutely nothing to do with the 2007 college football season, and nothing to do with OSU’s 2007 team or their successes or failures. However it appears that this writer, and I am sure he is not the only, one allows that past history to shape his POV on THIS college football season.

IMO that is not good.

As you can gather from reading the article he seems to think that loss should, could or would have an effect that lingers in the voters minds, again not a good thing, not for OSU’s sake but for college football’s sake, b/c at some point it would work both ways (meaning a team that wins it all one year would get preferential voting treatment the following year etc...).

2007’s rankings at any point in the season should be based on 2007 results only, no ifs ands or buts, no matter how unreasonable or irrational those reasons for rankings may be.

IMO this is something that hurts college football but unfortunately has probably zero chance of being corrected.


The long memory can both hurt and help Ohio State. It's a bit of a double-edged sword for them right now. They're getting the benefit of the doubt right now because they are one of the most storied programs in the history of college football along with their recent track record of producing good teams. There is a lingering doubt about the Big Ten and many northern teams in general because of last year's debacle.

You are dead-on that it doesn't have anything to do with this year's squad, but voters may remember it if Ohio State has close calls in upcoming games. They'll probably ignore the history there - the fact that Michigan State has been trouble before, that Ohio State has struggled at Beaver Stadium, that Wisconsin has been pesky and the same goes for Illinois. The only game I think national observers outside of Big Ten country will be forgiving about is Michigan because that rivalry is the best known throughout the nation.

That's not fair and I do expect that Ohio State will not look as dominant as they have thus far against some of those Big Ten teams. Some of that has to do with the increased talent of those teams and some of it has to do with history - other Big Ten squads get roused for the Buckeyes.

But the Buckeye loss last year and the App State win over Michigan have hurt how the general public outside of Big Ten country and the Big Ten fanbase that is scattered throughout the US perceive the conference.

I may get in to fights over the Big East, but I think here's how many view it:

1. SEC
2. PAC-10
3. Everybody Else

The double whammy for the Buckeyes comes into play when the computers consider their early season schedule. My apologies for my angry slanders earlier - I do really understand that they hoped Washington would be better than they've been - but the reality is that the early schedule was weak. With the BCS eliminating the score as a factor due to too many teams scheduling creampuffs to beat up because of it (cough, cough, FSU, Miami, cough, cough). The "style points" that replaced the margin of victory have proven to be worse because they bring that human issue up again. How does one award style points? Does a slim win by LSU over Florida count more than a big win over Podunk U? I think that it should, but there's nothing that really dictates how style points should be rewarded, so human bias enters the picture once more even in the computer polls.

So the voters won't forget last year and the computer pollsters probably use some of last year's data in their algorithms. Definitely not fair.

I can sympathize. There has already been plenty of backlash towards USF just because of its lack of history. A popular question to ask down here is this: if USF's name were flipped around to FSU where would they land with a resume of beating Auburn on the road and West Virginia? They probably would at least be ranked ahead of BC in both polls and would not be ranked #7 by some pollsters.

Honestly, both top BCS teams right now have the potential for being hammered should they even win out.

USF will get hammered for being USF and many will claim that LSU, USC, or another one-loss name school has more business in a title game.

Ohio State will be derided for playing nobody. People will say, "Sure, they beat Michigan, but they lost to Appy State and remember how well they played in the title game last year."

If it actually does end up being OSU and USF then I expect legions of LSU, Oklahoma, VT fans or whoever else feels slighted to question the legitimacy of the winner of that game. If OSU wins they'll say that USF really wasn't that good to begin with. If USF wins then they'll say the same.

Both arguments would truly be bullcrap, especially if both DO go undefeated. It would be very possible that both teams would be the only undefeated team. I don't care WHO you play in college football - going undefeated throughout the season is no easy task. As the season progresses you have EVERYONE aiming for you.

Still, it really doesn't matter if both teams get there in the end. It'd still be legitimate. It may be a down year for the Big Ten, but I know it's no picnic to play through that conference any year. They bring their best to the field when they play a team like the Buckeyes. Michigan surely won't roll over and play dead. I also think that a Bucks victory in Ann Arbor this year would be very impressive because I think that the Wolverines will be fighting for their coach one way or another.

The system does suck. The pollsters suck. The computers have some strengths, but also have some big problems.
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Unread postby furls » Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:45 pm

If it actually does end up being OSU and USF then I expect legions of LSU, Oklahoma, VT fans or whoever else feels slighted to question the legitimacy of the winner of that game. If OSU wins they'll say that USF really wasn't that good to begin with. If USF wins then they'll say the same.

Both arguments would truly be bullcrap, especially if both DO go undefeated. It would be very possible that both teams would be the only undefeated team. I don't care WHO you play in college football - going undefeated throughout the season is no easy task. As the season progresses you have EVERYONE aiming for you.


Exactly right Mac, and that is why I say that as the system is currently, you do not win a National Championship, you are awarded a National Championship for winning the BCS game. The only title a team earns during the season is a conference title.
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Unread postby FUDU » Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:04 pm

I don't care WHO you play in college football - going undefeated throughout the season is no easy task.


I'm saving this little nugget to cash in at a later time...I will hold you to this mac.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:07 pm

FUDU wrote:I'm saving this little nugget to cash in at a later time...I will hold you to this mac.


I'm cool with that.

If the Buckeyes win out then they do deserve to play for it, especially if they are the only winner.

If the Buckeyes are one of three teams including USF and BC, I'd also favor the Bucks over BC because I do think the Big Ten is tougher than the ACC. For all my earlier mocking, I do think the Big Ten is overall better than the ACC. BC would have a victory over VT but not much else. While a single opponent of OSU likely wouldn't equal that, I do think the bulk of their Big Ten schedule is greater than BC's schedule. I'd obviously favor USF as well, especially if Auburn continues to do well and WVU wins out.
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Unread postby Bayou Tribe » Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:33 pm

I'd also favor the Bucks over BC because I do think the Big Ten is tougher than the ACC.


2-3 losses by BC when it is all said and done, imho. I think OSU and USF will run the table though.
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Unread postby neoleo » Fri Oct 19, 2007 9:33 am

Bayou Tribe wrote:
I'd also favor the Bucks over BC because I do think the Big Ten is tougher than the ACC.


2-3 losses by BC when it is all said and done, imho. I think OSU and USF will run the table though.


Its easy to say now, but I didn't see USF going undefeated. I do like BC's chances though (moreso than Ohio State's). I actually had BC pegged as my sleeper national championship team on another board. (Funny story, I got hooked on them last season on College Football on PS2 and I ran the table with them on there before realizing they were returning EVERYBODY this year). I have no idea why they were overlooked by the pollsters.
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Unread postby Madre Hill, Superstar » Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:47 am

NEOLeo wrote:I have no idea why they were overlooked by the pollsters.


Probably because they haven't been relevant since Doug Flutie.
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Unread postby furls » Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:01 pm

They aren't that good now. 2 losses sounds about right, including a double digit loss to a VaTech team with no offense next week.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:52 pm

I think right now that the Buckeyes have a better shot at going undefeated than BC does. I'm not sure that the Bucks will go undefeated because their road from here on out is not easy and each team they play from here on out has the potential to upset them, but I think the Buckeyes are the most prepared for what they are about to face.

I'm not sure how well BC will do as they play out their ACC schedule.

I'm not sure if many of the current one-loss teams will stay with only one. I see Auburn with potential to upset LSU. Oklahoma looks strong, though OK ST is always tough and the Big 12 championship game has tripped them up before. Kentucky may not make it past Florida. South Carolina has a tough road ahead.

Is it possible that we could have a one-loss or undefeated Ohio State squad playing a two-loss team from another conference?
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Unread postby furls » Fri Oct 19, 2007 6:06 pm

I'm not sure if many of the current one-loss teams will stay with only one. I see Auburn with potential to upset LSU. Oklahoma looks strong, though OK ST is always tough and the Big 12 championship game has tripped them up before. Kentucky may not make it past Florida. South Carolina has a tough road ahead.

Is it possible that we could have a one-loss or undefeated Ohio State squad playing a two-loss team from another conference?



AP top "17":

1. Ohio State (50) 7-0 1,599: Tough games ahead, but Tressel has always done a good job of beating teams that they should.


2. South Florida (11) 6-0 1,503: I do not see any real rough road ahead for them. That said, lots of teams have fallen to weaker opponents than USF will face. I think they should win out.

3. Boston College (1) 7-0 1,448: Is not good. THey are just waiting for the right team to come along and start their inevitable slide. Lucky for them, VaTech is coming to do so next week.

4. Oklahoma (1) 6-1 1,399: Should win out, but would likely get jumped by a one loss SEC team.

5. LSU (1) 6-1 1,331: has a tough road ahead starting with Auburn. LSU has some problems, but is still probably the best team in the SEC.

6. South Carolina 6-1 1,247: Is likely to lose to Tn or Fl. If not then they would likely face LSU in the SEC championship game, winner with a shot at the BCS game.

7. Oregon 5-1 1,177: Has fairly clear sailing if they can get past ASU.

8. Kentucky 6-1 1,098: Nice run boys, but I am not sold. Good win against LSU, but I figure they will lose at least one of the following: FL, TN, GA.

9. West Virginia 5-1 1,090: Has a pretty clear road if they can get past a Cincy team that is probably not as good as I thought. I don't think the Mountaineers are that good, but I just don't see much left on their schedule to get your panties in a bunch about.

10. California 5-1 1,065: Tough games at ASU and home with USC loom.

11. Virginia Tech 6-1 951: Could win out because the ACC is that bad.

12. Arizona State (1) 7-0 948: Too many tough games, documented above.

13. USC 5-1 932: They just are not that good, but I think good enough for about 3rd in the Pac-10. THey are just good enough to screw up other people's seasons.

14. Florida 4-2 865: Lot of tough games to survive and a possible LSU rematch if they do. They will lose again.

15. Kansas 6-0 664: Likely to lose at least one game. If they do lose just one then they will get the privilige of losing another one to Oklahoma.

15. Missouri 5-1 664: If they can win out (knocking KS out of the picture) then they are likely to lose to OK in the Big 12 champ. game.

17. Hawaii 7-0 551: If these guys sniff a BCS bowl than it will be proof positive of how flawed the BCS is.


4-5 one loss or less teams at the end of the season by my guess.

RIght now, if I had to guess, I would guess Ohio State vs. Oklahoma for the BCS title game. Not because OSU is the greatest, but because the schedule is pretty kind to them. The Buckeyes get a good work out tomorrow with MSU. Next week, they get to play a very average team in a very hostile environment, dangerous for sure, but they really should win. The following week, a not very good wiscy team at home. Normally Wisconsin's running game would be a bit scary, but not with how bad their defense is and their fairly ineffective passing game. The following week a Ron Zook coached team at home. Illinois is talented for sure, but Ron Zook, well he is not. The following week at scUM, anything goes, but that is really scary game left.

The really good thing about OSU's schedule this year is that each game helps them prepare for the next by adding a bit of a degree of difficulty. Take the road games:

Washington: Afternoon road game, badish team, tough environment
Purdue: Night game, slightly better team, slightly easier environment
Penn State: Night Game, average to good team, wicked environment
Michigan: Afternoon game, better team, slightly easier environment.

Each game increases the degree of difficulty slightly, but ultimately OSUs hopes probably rest in Brandon Saine's ability to carry the team (I have lost faith in Beanie's ankle) and the coaching staff's willingness to go away from Maurice Hall... i mean wells.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:25 pm

Great job summing it all up, Furls.

Here's what sucks for Ohio State. If they do keep winning but then lose to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor in a tight game then they'd likely be skipped over in favor of other one-loss teams.

The problem there is that the humans will drop Ohio State and it could miss playing in the BCS only due to the proximity of their loss to the end of the season and not the quality of their loss. That's where the system is the most unfair.

I do think OK and Ohio State is a very likely matchup now and one that the Buckeyes would do well in. Don't know if they'd win, but I'd expect a good game between those two teams.

I get the feeling more and more that LSU will not run the table. Whether it be in the SEC Championship game or earlier, I just don't think they will win out and I think LSU is really good. If Florida meets them in ATL, I'm not sure LSU will win. UF led for most of the game in Baton Rouge. While I like Les Miles, I think Meyer is the better coach and will find a way.

I'm expecting upsets more and more now. No one is completely immune to them, though I do agree that Tressel is very good at winning games he should. He doesn't let his team buy into press clippings, etc. Still, all the teams coming up have beaten the Buckeyes in the past when they really had no business doing so. Tressel will not overlook that, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them manages to pull the upset. The Michigan game right now looks like the only one where the opposing team has a real chance against the Buckeyes on paper.
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Unread postby FUDU » Fri Oct 19, 2007 8:34 pm

Here's what sucks for Ohio State. If they do keep winning but then lose to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor in a tight game then they'd likely be skipped over in favor of other one-loss teams.


While disappointing, it would be consistent with how the system has been implemented the past number of years.

We'd just have to deal with it.
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