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Big East Big Game Tonight!

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Big East Big Game Tonight!

Unread postby furls » Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:40 pm

I am stoked. This should be one of the better games so far this season.

Take USF and the points as well as the under. I like USF to win straight up. WVU is finally facing a defense that is better than moderately average (Maryland). It will be interesting to see if Pat White, Steve Slaton, and Noel Devine seem fast because they are fast or because the teams they play are that slow.
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Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:14 pm

With Slaton and White I think it is a combination of both them being fast and their competition not being so fast.


Let's put it this way, on Saturday when fast defenses are mentioned we usually here about USC, LSU, the Buckeyes and one or two other schools, don't here USF name, so IMO yeah these guys are fast but the D's they run against help em out a bit in that department too.

Good call on the game..........so far.
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Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:18 pm

Nice work Furls. On all counts.

And Thank God W. Virginia falls. Seeing that team with that schedule in line for a title game would have made physically sick and praying for three or four unbeatens.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:44 am

Great game. The offense left a lot of points on the field. I've been to a lot of games at the Ray Jay but have never heard it as loud or seen people as into it. It's looking like the rest of the season at home will be sold out - 67,000 tonight at the stadium. Not bad 11 years in.

West Virginia is out of the national title picture, though USF might be climbing into it, depending on what happens from here on out. An Auburn defeat of UF tomorrow would be huge for USF, though I don't expect Auburn to win.

It's definitely an outside shot at national title contention, but we'll be in the discussion if we win out. Now we just have to see where we land in the polls this week. ESPN and Fox Radio both reported on the game as not being as close as the score. We got a national spotlight with no competition other than local high school games for football. The defense looked good against a WVU team that no one other than USF has been able to shut down over the past two seasons.

The best news is that we're going to be getting better and better recruits from here on out. Florida produces over 300 players for I-A schools every year. In the past we haven't been able to keep a majority of them in state. Now we have more teams emerging. UCF is likely to get an invite to the Big East in the near future. Their near miss versus Texas was impressive and George O'Leary is a good coach.

While Minnesota is bad, it was still significant that FAU defeated them. They are growing quickly under Schnellenberger, the man who built Miami. FIU is the furthest back and entered I-A too quickly because the Sunbelt begged them to move up, but there's potential. Now Florida Gulfcoast University and the University of North Florida are thinking about starting programs. There's enough talent in this state to field a lot of good teams.

It's funny talking to some Gator friends who have seriously told me they'd love to drop Vandy and invite USF into the SEC. It'd be tough, but we could handle it given time. The Tampa Bay area is loaded to the gills with football talent. If we do what Miami did and build a fence then we'll become a national power over the next few years. While it'd nice to have your own place, we do play in probably the nicest stadium of any college football team. It's a huge recruiting tool, though Miami will be moving to Dolphins Stadium and it's getting $300M in renovations.

Hope the Noles can pull off the win versus 'Bama tomorrow and get back in the Top 25. It'd be nice to have three Florida teams in the Top 25 again, though Miami is closer to getting back in. UCF is getting nearly as many votes as FSU right now.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:22 am

The game is over, and I learned a lot.

1.) White and Slaton are not that freaking awesome. Sorry, they looked above average (about where I suspected they were).
2.) Pat White still cannot effectively throw a football. His numbers were inflated by playing against INFERIOR competition.
3.) USF's defense is very good.
4.) USF's offense is as not good as their defense is good. Matt Grothe was to the Bulls last night what Grossman is to the Bears.

USF got a lot of love from all the announcers last night and the program's rise is pretty impressive. This is clearly going to be a banner year for the Bulls. I am not sure how viable the Bulls are as a national title contender because their offense is "pedestrian" to put it nicely. They will probably struggle to keep up with Louisville, but on a positive note, my son's 11-13 year old team just hung 62 on the Cardinals.

Just wait until everyone else in the country learns that Cincinnati and USF are actually the best teams in the Big East this year. November 3rd looms large.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:25 am

While Minnesota is bad, it was still significant that FAU defeated them. They are growing quickly under Schnellenberger, the man who built Miami. FIU is the furthest back and entered I-A too quickly because the Sunbelt begged them to move up, but there's potential.


Minnesota is not just bad, they are epically bad. In the future, poets and minstrels will sing about how horrific this Minnesota team is; they are actually Northwestern bad. THat is a level of shittiness that I normally reserve only for ummm, Northwestern five years out of six.

Their near miss versus Texas was impressive and George O'Leary is a good coach.


Hate to sound like a doubting Thomas here, but Texas is not very good either. They may actually be completely exposed as early as today. I watched that UCF/Texas game and the Knights played pretty well, but it was also pretty apparent that Texas is barely a top 25 team (if they even are a top 25). I cannot remember a year when the pollsters were so absolutely wrong going into the season.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:05 am

Furls wrote:
Minnesota is not just bad, they are epically bad. In the future, poets and minstrels will sing about how horrific this Minnesota team is; they are actually Northwestern bad. THat is a level of shittiness that I normally reserve only for ummm, Northwestern five years out of six.


I agree with you there, but it is still significant when a school like FAU in the Sunbelt defeats a Big Ten team. They've been playing football for less than 10 years there. The truly big step for them would be if they beat a ranked Kentucky team today. I don't expect them to unless Kentucky is caught napping due to their upcoming schedule.

Hate to sound like a doubting Thomas here, but Texas is not very good either. They may actually be completely exposed as early as today. I watched that UCF/Texas game and the Knights played pretty well, but it was also pretty apparent that Texas is barely a top 25 team (if they even are a top 25). I cannot remember a year when the pollsters were so absolutely wrong going into the season.


Well, there are a lot of teams that are overrated. You know my feelings on the Big Ten and I'm of the belief that no team in that conference belongs anywhere near the top 10. I'll believe in Ohio State when they actually play somebody. They've looked much better on offense over the last two weeks, but they should have.

As for Grothe, the mistakes he made last night were uncharacteristic of him. He had zero INTs going into the game and made plenty of dumb throws, forcing the ball. They need to work on eliminating the mistakes on offense. The defense already is fantastic and does a good job forcing turnovers. There were open field tackles missed here and there where guys were trying to do some body tackling instead of leg tackling.

White and Slaton are very fast and would give most teams problems, but our defense is also very quick, especially when moving laterally. I've seen the LSU, UF, and FSU defenses in their primes live and our speed is up in that category. They play a style very similar in many ways to the "bend, don't break" philosophy that the TB Bucs employed during their glory years and they swarm like that D.

It was a big win. While WVU was overrated, there are plenty of teams in the top 10 that are. Honestly, I'm uncertain of any teams outside of USC, LSU, and Oklahoma at this point in the top 10. LSU really looks to me like the best team in the country right now and by a fairly wide margin.

The Cincy games does scare me. They are moving up in the world, though I'm glad they are. We'll have to see how it all sorts out. WVU is still pretty good. Their schedule doesn't help to prove it, but part of that has to do with them rushing to fill up spots. We had to do the same thing when we rushed to add Elon this year.
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:06 am

Mac, congrads to the Bulls. Musta been great to be there last night. I had em +7 and was clicking back and forth all night between that and the baseball games on.

They could have won that game by about 40.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:53 am

it is still significant when a school like FAU in the Sunbelt defeats a Big Ten team.


Yep, it puts them in elite company with BGSU.

You know my feelings on the Big Ten and I'm of the belief that no team in that conference belongs anywhere near the top 10.


I would be interested in seeing that top 10.

I'll believe in Ohio State when they actually play somebody.


That has been my take on the Big East since all the top tier programs bolted for the ACC. I am still waiting for anyone in that conference to beat a good team. I guess WVU's win a couple of years ago over Georgia is about the closest they have come. I cannot fault USF for putting Auburn on the schedule (nor Louisville for Miami's bad play last year), but the fact remains, that no one in that conference has really beat anyone.

Honestly, I'm uncertain of any teams outside of USC, LSU, and Oklahoma at this point in the top 10. LSU really looks to me like the best team in the country right now and by a fairly wide margin.


Agree 100% with all aspects of that including the exclusion of Florida. The Gators are good, but I am not really sure how good. I don't think we will know much about Florida until after they play KY and GA. I think that they will get beat handely by LSU, so much so that we still really won't know much about them. If the Gators honestly think Tebow up the middle will be effective against LSU, well....

The Cincy games does scare me.


Unless USF figures out some offense in the near future, that game should scare you. As for Grothe, the intereceptions were bad, but his accuracy just wasn't there. He is just a sophomore, so there is still plenty of time for improvement, but he will have to play better against better competition (Like Cincy).

I love how folks are terming this game a great upset. It really isn't if you pay attention, in any case it was a great win for your guys Mac.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Sep 30, 2007 2:14 am

Furls wrote:Yep, it puts them in elite company with BGSU.


Seeing as they were only I-AA a few years ago and didn't even have a football team a decade ago, that's not bad.

I would be interested in seeing that top 10.


You won't because the Big Ten is the oldest conference with a lot of alumni. Just because there are a lot of delusional people out there who are obsessed with the Big Ten and rate it high because they're fans doesn't make it good.

That has been my take on the Big East since all the top tier programs bolted for the ACC. I am still waiting for anyone in that conference to beat a good team.


Well, does Auburn count yet? What if they beat LSU?

I guess WVU's win a couple of years ago over Georgia is about the closest they have come. I cannot fault USF for putting Auburn on the schedule (nor Louisville for Miami's bad play last year), but the fact remains, that no one in that conference has really beat anyone.


See above. Do you think Ohio State could have beaten UF in the Swamp? I don't think they could.

How does the Georgia game not count for WVU in a time before Slaton? Georgia was the SEC champ. I'm sure you would have chocked it up as a big win if Ohio State got it. West Virginia managed to do something your program has NEVER done - beat a SEC team in a bowl game. That WVU team was probably worse than the current one. You dog WVU and the Big East even though your own favorite program has not accomplished the same feat.

Agree 100% with all aspects of that including the exclusion of Florida. The Gators are good, but I am not really sure how good. I don't think we will know much about Florida until after they play KY and GA. I think that they will get beat handely by LSU, so much so that we still really won't know much about them. If the Gators honestly think Tebow up the middle will be effective against LSU, well....


Guess we found out a little more today. LSU did struggle in the first half, but they may have been looking ahead. Seems to me right now that they probably stand alone.

I agree on the LSU game next week, though stranger things have happened. Did you really think Auburn would win tonight?

Unless USF figures out some offense in the near future, that game should scare you. As for Grothe, the intereceptions were bad, but his accuracy just wasn't there. He is just a sophomore, so there is still plenty of time for improvement, but he will have to play better against better competition (Like Cincy).


I agree on that point. I think his choices were poor. I don't know what the broadcast showed because I haven't watched it, but on a few plays in the red zone he locked in on a receiver and threw into double or triple coverage, getting picked off at least once (can't remember specifically). At least twice there was a guy wide open on the sideline who could have slowly walked into the end zone. In both of those cases he had time to go through his progressions.

I'm sure Leavitt will hammer the offense after the celebrating is through. They need to get better. The defense is fantastic. WVU got a few big plays, but I expected them to get some because of their speed, but the defense generated turnovers when needed and really put the pressure on when needed.

But it was a lot closer than it should have been because of the offense and the mistakes.

I love how folks are terming this game a great upset. It really isn't if you pay attention, in any case it was a great win for your guys Mac.


I agree there. I wasn't worried at all going into the game. I was hyped because, overrated though they were, WVU was still ranked #5 and beating them significant. I think the "upset" stuff comes from the newness of the program to the scene and the newness of us in the BCS.

What I do think is that the Big East chose correctly when they expanded and it can be argued that the conference has been more successful than the ACC in football since the ACC raided the Big East. Cincy is a team on the move. Louisville has been horrible on defense this year, but that team does have potential moving forward and they've been solid since Schnellenberger rebuilt them. USF, of course, has access to the treasure trove of talent in Florida. That's why the Big East really wanted us in the first place. They saw the potential for another big team from Florida and really looked to us to anchor the conference going forward. Mike Tranghese pretty much said this during his teleconference back in 2003 (I was at the Marshall Center for that - another huge day for the program).

And though you may have your doubts about the conference, we certainly have fulfilled the rankings requirements to stay in the BCS over the past three years. They counted Louisville in '04 as Big East. I see the Big East getting better going forward.

Maybe if things swing right we can face your Buckeyes in the BCS title game and see if we can't make you guys REALLY hate teams from Florida. You might then find that it's the peninsula to the south of you that you need to be worried about instead of the one up north, though Les Miles in Ann Arbor might be a problem. ;)
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Sep 30, 2007 2:27 am

Swerb wrote:Mac, congrads to the Bulls. Musta been great to be there last night. I had em +7 and was clicking back and forth all night between that and the baseball games on.

They could have won that game by about 40.


Thanks Swerb. It was amazing. My voice is still recovering. I've been to many games at that stadium. I've been to Outback Bowls, Bucs games, and other college games (and I was in the area during the Super Bowl). I've never heard it louder and I'm not the only one who's said that down here. I expect a huge showing when we face UCF down here in two weeks. The Golden Knights should be 4-1. While their showing against Texas no longer looks as good as it did two weeks ago, they've got a shot at taking the CUSA crown and are an in-state rival. They are especially bitter towards us. They're a younger University than we are (USF was founded in 1956 while UCF was founded in 1963) but have been playing football since 1979, starting in Division III. They also lost out on a chance to become the third Research I institution in the state. USF is now considered a top tier academic institution in Florida up there with FSU and UF while UCF is in the second tier. They also had to play in the Citrus Bowl for years. Any Buckeyes fans that have watched their team play there knows that that place is a dump. Even the Old Sombrero in Tampa that preceded Ray Jay was much nicer. Should be a fun one and ESPN might be picking that one up too on Saturday night.

It's been a real joy watching this program grow. They started playing football one year after I graduated from high school. I never dreamed then that they'd be anywhere near where they are now just a decade later. There's certainly something to be said about the traditions and history at a place like Ohio State, but it's also amazing to know what an oddity your football program is in the history of the sport. I don't think any other school has experienced anything quite like this and that's an awesome feeling. It's been awesome to watch and listen to national sports news commentaries and scoreboards mentioning a school that most people in the country had never heard about a decade ago.

It's a real trip.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:13 am

I'm of the belief that no team in that conference belongs anywhere near the top 10. I'll believe in Ohio State when they actually play somebody.


OK, I'll be more clear, show me your top 15 with no Big Ten Teams "anywhere near the top 10." Hell, I would even have to put 2 Big East teams in my Top 15 simply because it requires 15 teams and there aren't that many good ones in the Big Ten, Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC. The ACC is a trainwreck, so I may not actually have an ACC team in the top 15.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:41 am

Well, does Auburn count yet? What if they beat LSU?


I guess we'll have to see about that one. You have to admit, losing to MSU makes that Auburn win look somewhat suspect. Since we are talking hypotheticals here.... let's suppose for a second that Tennessee was grossly overrated coming into this season. Not a bad assumption considering they were absolutely destroyed by both Cal and Florida.

If you pull that thread, then what does that say about Florida. Remember, Florida made its money with a big win over Tennessee. They really haven't played anyone else this year. They looked vulnerable against Ole' Miss, and the more you watch them, the more they look like a two trick pony. If you tackle Tim Tebow at the line and don't make mistakes on Harvin, Florida is very ordinary. You are going to look at it as me just trying to devalue the Auburn win at all costs, and that is fine, you can have your opinion, but I started raising questions about Florida last week.

Based on this week, I think you have to start asking a lot of questions about the SEC. Maybe it isn't a given that the SEC is the best conference in the country. Right now, the SEC is living off a reputation based on last year. These days, I think that you could make a very compelling case for the PAC-10 as the best overall conference. I still think the bottom of the SEC is superior to the bottom of the PAC-10, but the PAC-10 is beginning to look pretty deep with USC, Cal, Oregon, UCLA (in spite of a disappointing, embarassing loss), ASU, even Washington looks pretty decent as the 6th best team in the conference.

What if they beat LSU?


If Auburn were to get on a roll and knock off LSU and some of the other big boys in the SEC then I guess you would have to say that the loss to MSU was an anomally, or a look past game or something, but right now, Auburn looks inconsistent. I am not hating on USF, but Auburn it is really hard to get a feel for how good Auburn is right now.

Do you think Ohio State could have beaten UF in the Swamp? I don't think they could.


Based on what I saw last night, and living in the world of the hypothetical, I see no reason why OSU would have been unable to beat Florida. The Gators looked rather ordinary for a second straight week. What if that is what they are, ordinary. What if that is the hallmark of this year? A bunch of ordinary teams. It is looking more and more that way every week. Every team (except LSU) has shown some pretty severe flaws.

How does the Georgia game not count for WVU in a time before Slaton? Georgia was the SEC champ. I'm sure you would have chocked it up as a big win if Ohio State got it. West Virginia managed to do something your program has NEVER done - beat a SEC team in a bowl game.


Fine, I will concede the Georgia game as the biggest win in the history of the reborn Big East. Congratulations, one big non conference win in three years!

You dog WVU and the Big East even though your own favorite program has not accomplished the same feat.


Hmmm, the '05 Buckeyes were pretty good. I think they probably would have beaten Georgia too. I am sure you can tell me how the Buckeyes were probably too slow or whatever, but that was a pretty good Ohio State team. Ohio State had two losses that year by less than 7 points, one to a Texas team that proved to be pretty decent and the other to a Penn State team at night on the road (That PSU team did OK too).

Did you really think Auburn would win tonight?


I gave Auburn a better chance than I give Florida of beating LSU because Florida's play against Ole' Miss had to be a bit of a warning of trouble to come. Now that said, I did not think Auburn would win. I would be lying if I said that.

I agree on that point. I think his choices were poor. I don't know what the broadcast showed because I haven't watched it, but on a few plays in the red zone he locked in on a receiver and threw into double or triple coverage, getting picked off at least once (can't remember specifically). At least twice there was a guy wide open on the sideline who could have slowly walked into the end zone. In both of those cases he had time to go through his progressions.


That is basically what I saw too. It looks like a case of rushing when you don't have too and trying to play against the defense instead of capitalizing on the defensive spaces left behind. A good quarterback never seems to be playing AGAINST a defense, they seem to play the defense. Grothe is still trying to make a play against the defense instead of reading the defense and taking what it offers. That part should improve, but what should be more alarming are his mechanics and accuracy. I have seen 3 USF games thus far and has not really been throwing a "great ball."

I think the "upset" stuff comes from the newness of the program to the scene and the newness of us in the BCS.


Sort of. I think the upset comes from the fact that every year the pollsters generate a ridiculous preseason poll based on a serious of guesses and largely on previous performance. What is worse is that each and every week the polls change based on wins and losses with very little attention to what actually happened in the game. Some losses are better than others. Does Oregon's loss to Cal really reflect that badly on Oregon? Should it?

...has been more successful than the ACC in football since the ACC raided the Big East.


Agreed. The collapse of every relevant program in the ACC is a bit of poetic justice.

Cincy is a team on the move.


Agreed. They have pretty good HS football in Ohio, but you would never know it because of all the Florida hype, basically it is assumed that every player out of Florida is fast and every player out of Ohio is slow. That is how Ohio State always seems to have a number 12 recruiting class, but still leads the country in 1st round draft picks and holds the record for NFL draft picks in a draft (14). THere are a lot "scraps" in Ohio for Cincinnati. Now what remains to be seen is whether they can continue the momentum after Dantonio left. He had an impeccable reputation in Ohio, and his affiliation with Jim Tressel gave him a lot of credibility in recruiting. If Cincy can keep winning then you will see the program get the credibility that Dantonio wielded. This is a pivotal year for that program.

Louisville has been horrible on defense this year, but that team does have potential moving forward and they've been solid since Schnellenberger rebuilt them.


Will be interesting to see how they rebound without Petrino. Louisville is decent, that is about it.

I see the Big East getting better going forward.


I do also. I see good things in the future from both Cincinnati and USF. WVU will continue to be what it is, a consistent top 25 team. I am not sold on the long term viability of Louisville, particularly if KY and Cincinnati are able to maintain any kind of momentum.

Maybe if things swing right we can face your Buckeyes in the BCS title game and see if we can't make you guys REALLY hate teams from Florida. You might then find that it's the peninsula to the south of you that you need to be worried about instead of the one up north, though Les Miles in Ann Arbor might be a problem.


This is what fans in Florida (and the rest of the country) don't understand. Ohio State fans really don't hate Florida and will never really hate Florida. As a matter of fact, I would much rather beat Michigan and lose the bowl game than the vice versa even at the cost of a national title. I am disappointed with Ohio State's showing in the BCS title game last year, but I am fine with the overall outcome of the season.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:45 am

Furls wrote:OK, I'll be more clear, show me your top 15 with no Big Ten Teams "anywhere near the top 10." Hell, I would even have to put 2 Big East teams in my Top 15 simply because it requires 15 teams and there aren't that many good ones in the Big Ten, Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC. The ACC is a trainwreck, so I may not actually have an ACC team in the top 15.


Well I should have just said top 10. That really changes after today due to losses with half the top ten. I still wouldn't put Wisconsin in the top 10. I'd probably rate OSU #9 or #8.

Great looking at the updated Sagarin ratings this morning.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt07.htm

The ELO-CHESS is the category that is used for the BCS poll. Notice that USF is ranked #3 there and Ohio State #8.

And then there are the Sagarin conference ratings that use the statistical data. The Big Ten is next to last in the BCS conferences as only the ACC is worse. Big East is #3. A little bit of statistical vindication, but I had that last year when the Big East was rated higher than the Big Ten in Sagarin as well.

Notice that Ohio State's schedule is ranked 60th while USF and West Virginia's is rated higher. Yes, the middle of the pack of the Big East is much worse on the schedule strength, but USF's game against Auburn is going to strengthen the whole conference once we play them. Imagine how that'll affect the BCS if Auburn makes headway in the SEC or even manages to upend LSU and win the SEC East.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:11 pm

Well I should have just said top 10. That really changes after today due to losses with half the top ten. I still wouldn't put Wisconsin in the top 10. I'd probably rate OSU #9 or #8.


hmmmm... that is a far cry from "nowhere near the top 10."
Please, show me this list. I would love to see it. Go on the record. Don't pussyfoot around and then say, oh well, it changes now. Show your cards.

And then there are the Sagarin conference ratings that use the statistical data. The Big Ten is next to last in the BCS conferences as only the ACC is worse. Big East is #3. A little bit of statistical vindication, but I had that last year when the Big East was rated higher than the Big Ten in Sagarin as well.


ok, whats your point again? That the Big East is overrated? I agree. That the Big Ten is not very good this year? I agree.

Notice that Ohio State's schedule is ranked 60th while USF and West Virginia's is rated higher.

Notice that Ohio State's schedule is ranked 60th while USF and West Virginia's is rated higher.


Who was it that said that Ohio State played a tough schedule. I said that USF and WVU have played a weak one, and I stand by that claim today. I guess the fact that the Big East's three "best" teams have all already suffered losses just further proves the point.

Louisville sucks.
Rutgers much worse than people think (I said they were exposed in the Navy game, remember?).
WVU is not good either.

Right now the Big East is built on a house of cards that is rapidly collapsing. Someone has to win the games and it looks like it will be USF and Cincinnati.

It is pretty funny that you are talking all kinds of shit about how great the Big East because Auburn won a game, like that somehow vindicates a conference whose 2 highest ranked teams were manhandled this weekend.
Last edited by furls on Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 30, 2007 12:19 pm

The ELO-CHESS is the category that is used for the BCS poll. Notice that USF is ranked #3 there and Ohio State #8.


Obviously this is going to be very accurate indicator of how good these teams are. Right now the top 8 looks great. As a matter of fact, it matches my top 8 (obviously sarcasm).

1.) LSU
2.) USC (not that one, south carolina)
3.) South Florida
4.) Mizzou (are you kidding)
5.) Southern Cal
6.) Northern Iowa (WHAT THE FUCK)
7.) Mississippi State (seriously?)
8.) Ohio State


Is this really the statistical vindication you are looking for?
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Sun Sep 30, 2007 2:56 pm

Furls wrote:ok, whats your point again? That the Big East is overrated? I agree. That the Big Ten is not very good this year? I agree.


No, my point is that the Big East is better than the Big Ten. Statistical analysis has bared that out over the past two years.

Who was it that said that Ohio State played a tough schedule. I said that USF and WVU have played a weak one, and I stand by that claim today. I guess the fact that the Big East's three "best" teams have all already suffered losses just further proves the point.


How so if people were rating our "three biggies" high anyways?

Michigan was one of the biggies for the Big Ten and how good are they? Penn State? I'm not a believer in Wisconsin who nearly got beat by a team that Pitt took to the wire. Ohio State has not played anyone nearly as good as Auburn or West Virginia. In fact, I'd take both of those teams in a matchup against ANY Big Ten team including the Buckeyes.

Right now the Big East is built on a house of cards that is rapidly collapsing. Someone has to win the games and it looks like it will be USF and Cincinnati.


Too bad most of the national media aren't agreeing. I'm thinking the same about the Big Ten. Pretty soon you'll be on the level with the MAC if this keeps up. You guys love playing those guys so much maybe that's good.

The Big Ten is long term going to be the weakest BCS school. A couple really bad seasons and we should think about throwing it out of the equation. You need to win some of those bowl game first please, and not against Notre Dame.

It is pretty funny that you are talking all kinds of shit about how great the Big East because Auburn won a game, like that somehow vindicates a conference whose 2 highest ranked teams were manhandled this weekend.


It's funny you talk all kinds of shit about how fantastic and wonderful the horrible Big Ten is just because your Buckeyes, who got pummeled by last year's Florida team, are in it. Maybe it's denial, realizing that the conference is fading away would be troubling.

As for Rutgers being manhandled - did you even pay attention to that game. I agree, they were overrated, but I still think them better than a lot of Big Ten teams. I think the same for the ACC. As I've said, I think the Big Ten has been the worst BCS conference over the past few years and that it's just getting worse. I've never claimed that the Big East is the best, just that it is currently in better shape than the Big Ten. If you guys slip up in your weak conference then you'll prove my point.

Things are changing. Notre Dame, one of the traditional powerhouses, has fallen. Best be careful that it doesn't happen to Ohio State and the other teams. You're already a national joke after your showing last year. Ohio State's defeat did more damage to the Big Ten's rep than you probably think, but I hear it a lot down here and when I travel to other areas of the country. Sure, Big Ten fans talk big about their conference, but things aren't looking good.

As for my Top 15 looking at who I think would be beat teams behind them:

1. LSU
2. USC
3. Florida
4. Cal
5. Oklahoma
6. USF
7. Georgia
8. West Virginia
9. Oregon
10. Kentucky
11. Boston College
12. Virginia Tech
13. South Carolina
14. Arizona State
15. Auburn

Guess I wouldn't put a Big Ten team in the top fifteen when I think about it. I think all the teams ranked above OSU would be up to the task of beating them and I think OSU can beat all the Big Ten teams. Yes, even Virginia Tech after their trouble with UNC. VT still has a good team, they just aren't anywhere near LSU but I'm not sure that anyone is. I'm interested to see how the Gators handle them in Baton Rouge.
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Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:22 pm

No, my point is that the Big East is better than the Big Ten. Statistical analysis has bared that out over the past two years.


The same statistical analysis that says that Northern Iowa is the 6th best team in the country right now!

How so if people were rating our "three biggies" high anyways?


All 3 were grossly overrated and continue to be.

Michigan was one of the biggies for the Big Ten and how good are they? Penn State? I'm not a believer in Wisconsin who nearly got beat by a team that Pitt took to the wire. Ohio State has not played anyone nearly as good as Auburn or West Virginia.


speaking of the Wolverines when did you jump that ship? Was it when you left OBR, or when USF started playing well? You never seemed to mention your USF affiliation there much.

Too bad most of the national media aren't agreeing.


Which national media is that? Did you watch Gameday after the game? Actually, based on the polls, it would appear that a lot of the national media still thinks pretty highly of the Big Ten, so much so that they have grossly overrated Wisconsin (I guess someone had to fill WVU and Louisville's preseason slots).

Pretty soon you'll be on the level with the MAC if this keeps up. You guys love playing those guys so much maybe that's good.


Oh, thats right, I guess they probably should have tried to get Elon, UNC, FAU, and UCF to really make a point with their non conference schedule.

The Big Ten is long term going to be the weakest BCS school. A couple really bad seasons and we should think about throwing it out of the equation. You need to win some of those bowl game first please, and not against Notre Dame.


Seriously, who did the Big East beat last year in a bowl game. Type one good team and try to do it with a straight face.

As for Rutgers being manhandled - did you even pay attention to that game.


Yep they were manhandled. The GREAT Rutgers rush attack, held to 80 yards and dominated on the line of scrimmage yep, saw that. That great rutgers defense gave up 240 on the ground to Maryland. Yep, dominated on both lines of scrimmage.

I still think them better than a lot of Big Ten teams.


Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, and maybe one or two others.

I
think the Big Ten has been the worst BCS conference over the past few years and that it's just getting worse.


I know, they have been terrible, getting 2 BCS bids per year is clearly the mark of a bad conference.

Best be careful that it doesn't happen to Ohio State and the other teams. You're already a national joke after your showing last year.


Yep, 4 BCS bowls in 5 years, things are clearly disintegrating in Columbus.

Ohio State's defeat did more damage to the Big Ten's rep than you probably think, but I hear it a lot down here and when I travel to other areas of the country.


It did a ton of damage, I know that, I am not stupid. Here is the problem, what happens one year does not accurately predict what happens the next particularly in college football wear teams turnover about 1/3 of their starters per year.

As for your top 15, well, the lengths you will go to "hate" on the Buckeyes is pretty funny.
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Unread postby FUDU » Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:30 pm

As for my Top 15 looking at who I think would be beat teams behind them:


Here we go mac's biased showing again.

Dude seriously, OSU not in the top 15 when the national polls WILL have them 4th, freakin 4th.

I think all the teams ranked above OSU would be up to the task of beating them


Now "being up to the task" is the qualifier?

Seriously mac, I think you are a very smart guy, someone who makes very good posts 80-90% of the time about many different things, but you seem to go a total different route when it comes to college football, I don't know why.

All your posts about college football ALWAYS imply (or even clearly state) that you feel your flavor of the month would be superior to OSU or ANYTHING the Big Ten offers. That is simply ridiculous and extremely biased and subjective.

Just from today's effort you imply by some Harry Potter methods that USF is better than the Buckeyes.

OSU would mop the floor with USF. USF would simply be out matched at nearly all positions overall, badly I might add. OSU would over power them and out run them, no matter how deep in "Florida" USF is or recruits their players from.

It might not be the 50-17 type mopping of the floor that people see from an OK v. Utep but JT's boys would embarrass the crap out of the Bulls. There is a reason why OSU has the MOST #1 draft picks in NFL history and the most players in the NFL (and those include very recent years).

Just b/c a team doesn't put up 50 a game or win by 40 a game doesn't mean they aren't the shit.

Maybe this is an OSU year and maybe it isn't, but to imply that USF has any type of advantage, any, on OSU is absurd and certifiably insane.

You if anyone takes way too much stock in one game over time, for IE: last years NC game. For some strange reason you subtly try to justify through the entirety of all your posts that since Florida beat OSU and USF is in Florida and USF beat a team in Florida' conference that USF beats OSU.

Got news for you, USF probably doesn't sniff a win against michigan this year.

Get over it already, you're good with numbers we all get it but anybody I mean anybody can manipulate numbers to reach an outcome that is beneficial to their wants or needs, anybody.






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Unread postby neoleo » Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:16 am

Using the same rankings that you quoted earlier, here
are all of the conference's rankings.

CONFERENCE
1 PAC-10
2 SOUTHEASTERN
<B>3 BIG EAST</B>
4 BIG 12
<B>5 BIG TEN</B>
6 ATLANTIC COAST
7 MOUNTAIN WEST
8 WESTERN ATHLETIC
9 I-A INDEPENDENTS
10 CONFERENCE USA
<B>11 MID-AMERICAN</B>
12 GATEWAY
13 COLONIAL
14 GREAT WEST
15 SUN BELT
16 SOUTHERN
17 BIG SKY
18 SOUTHLAND
19 IVY LEAGUE
20 PATRIOT LEAGUE
21 BIG SOUTH
22 OHIO VALLEY
23 MID-EASTERN
24 SOUTHWESTERN
25 PIONEER
26 NORTHEAST
27 I-AA INDEPENDENTS
28 METRO ATLANTIC

Notice that the MAC is the 4th highest ranked non-BCS
conference, higher than Big East favorites like the Sunbelt and the MEAC and right on par with another Big East favorite, Conference USA.

Here's your South Florida Bulls' non conference schedule the last 3
seasons.

2005:
Penn St (L)
Florida A&M (1AA MEAC-23rd)
Central Florida (C-USA-10th)
Miami (FL) (L)

2006:
McNeese St. (LA) (1AA Southland-18th)
Florida International (Sun Belt-15th)
Central Florida (C-USA-10th)
Kansas (L)

2007:
Elon (1AA Southern-16th)
Auburn
North Carolina
Florida Atlantic (Sun Belt-15th)
UCF (C-USA-10th)

So looking at S. Fla's schedule (which is consistant with
the Big East's scheduling as a whole), your non-BCS
games traditionally come against Conference USA and
the Sunbelt (ranked 10th and 15th for an average of
12.5), while Ohio State's non-BCS games (as well as
the rest of the Big Ten) traditionally come against
the MAC (ranked 11th). S. Fla's 1AA games have come
against the Southern, Southland and the MEAC for an
average conference rank of 19. Ohio State's
<B>only</B> 1AA game in recent history game against
Youngstown State, which plays in the highest rated 1AA
conference, the Gateway (ranked 12th).

Also, when looking at the Big East's top teams (Louisville, Rutgers, and West Virginia) non conference schedules from the past three seasons, you find additional Sunbelt and 1AA teams and a few more MAC/C-USA teams. (And nowhere in the Big East do I see games scheduled that rival Ohio State's previous and upcoming home and home's with Texas, USC, Miami (FL), Cal, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma).

West Virginia:
Marshall (twice) (MAC-11th)
ECU (twice) (C-USA-10th)
Woffard (1AA Southern-16th)
Eastern Washington (1AA Big Sky-17th)

The Mountaneers big home and home was with Maryland.

Louisville:
Florida Atlantic (Sunbelt-15th)
Florida International (Sunbelt-15th)
Middle Tennessee (twice) (Sunbelt-15th)
Temple (1A Independent/MAC-they scheduled Temple AFTER they got kicked out of the Big East for sucking)
Murray State (1AA Ohio Valley-22nd)

Of course the Cardinals play Kentucky every year and I give them credit for playing Miami (FL) last year (not their fault Miami was down).

Rutgers:
Villanova (1AA Colonial-13th)
Howard (1AA MEAC-23rd)
Norfolk State (1AA MEAC-23rd)
Ohio (MAC-11th)
Buffalo (twice) (MAC-11th)
Navy (all three years) (1A Independent)
Army (1A Independent)

The Scarlet Knight's big home and home was with Illinois (which they split).

Here's my response to a similar thread from August 1st. Since the Big East's bowl record was brought up again, I'll include this response again.

NEOLeo wrote: Going 5-0 is a good feat, no doubt about it, but
before we use that as a measuring stick, lets look
into the numbers a bit.

Louisville (11-1 entering bowl game) wins over Wake
Forrest (11-2 entering bowl). Louisville was a top 10
team all year (finished 6th) and they matched up with
an upstart Wake team (ranked 18th, good but not top
10) from a down ACC (no VA Tech, no Miami, etc.)

West Virginia (10-2) over Georgia Tech (9-4). Again, a
top 10 team all year vs. a down ACC team. WVA finishes
ranked 10th, GA Tech unranked.

Rutgers (10-2) over Kansas State (7-5). Kansas State
is all I have to say. Rutgers finishes ranked 12th.

South Florida (8-4) over ECU (7-5). This one is more
evenly matched, although S. FL has shown signs of
becoming a good program.

Cincinnati (7-5) over Western Michigan (8-4). Another
pretty evenly matched game, although Cincinnati's win
over Rutgers trumps anything WMU did all year.

Again, winning is what's important, but I'd say the
Big East had a pretty good draw last bowl season.
Three top 12 teams and only one of them played a
ranked team, and that team finished 18th nationally
(and GA Tech was without their starting QB).


The point of all this is to show you that anybody can dig up stats to support an argument. I'm sure that you can dig up stats to show these same points against any BCS conference. They all play fluff teams on their schedule to gaurantee home games and victories. That's just the way college football is right now.

Mr. MacPhisto wrote: Too bad most of the national media aren't agreeing. I'm thinking the same about the Big Ten. Pretty soon you'll be on the level with the MAC if this keeps up. You guys love playing those guys so much maybe that's good.


At least we won't become the Sunbelt or the MEAC.

Mr. MacPhisto wrote:The Big Ten is long term going to be the weakest BCS school. A couple really bad seasons and we should think about throwing it out of the equation. You need to win some of those bowl game first please, and not against Notre Dame.


Will we get to stay in the BCS equation once we knock off the heavyweights of Wake Forest, Kansas State and Georgia Tech?

Mr. MacPhisto wrote:Things are changing. Notre Dame, one of the traditional powerhouses, has fallen. Best be careful that it doesn't happen to Ohio State and the other teams. You're already a national joke after your showing last year. Ohio State's defeat did more damage to the Big Ten's rep than you probably think, but I hear it a lot down here and when I travel to other areas of the country. Sure, Big Ten fans talk big about their conference, but things aren't looking good.


What a poor showing, 12-1 and playing for their second national championship in 5 years (not to mention the 4th place finish in 05 with losses to #3 PSU (on the road at night) and vs. #1 Texas (without starting Troy Smith). To be frank, every team in the Big East would kill to have Ohio State's program right now.
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