2013 NCAA Tournament

[swerb]

Quick reaction gut feeling Final Four: Louisville, Ohio State, Florida, Indiana.

Indiana over Louisville for the title.

[skatingtripods]

Gimme Louisville over Indiana in the title game. Pitino is light years above Crean as a coach.

Indiana's the more athletic team, but Crean's going to hold them back at some point during this tourney. I think their balance and athleticism can get them to the finals, but Pitino's bunch was one of the best 2nd half teams (+8.1 pts per game before Syracuse dismantling) all season long. They make adjustments better than maybe anybody in the tourney.

[leadpipe]

Gimme Louisville over Indiana in the title game. Pitino is light years above Crean as a coach.

Indiana's the more athletic team, but Crean's going to hold them back at some point during this tourney. I think their balance and athleticism can get them to the finals, but Pitino's bunch was one of the best 2nd half teams (+8.1 pts per game before Syracuse dismantling) all season long. They make adjustments better than maybe anybody in the tourney.

If Bill Self can stumble upon a championship, surely Tom Crean can.

Incidentally, I'm not "conspiracy guy" - don't think a whole lot in major sports is fixed, however, it is pretty clear that these guys go in with the goal of not having a mid-major win this thing. Take for instance this year MM with steam, St. Louis. Go ahead and givem about the toughest run for a 4 seed in thie history of the game. You look back on brackets of recent years you'll find highly regarded mid-majors with really tough roads, or a committee favorite - matching them up in the second round.

[waborat]

Before the nasty studying starts, I have:

Louisville, Zaga, Michigan, Indiana

With Pitino cuttin nets

[furls]

My initial bracket (which has way too much chalk in it in the early rounds) has:

Louisville, Ohio State, Georgetown and Syracuse.

I definitely don't have a lot of faith in the #1's this year as you can see the #1's just aren't head and shoulders above like they are in some years. I have IU going out after making the sweet 16; I have Gonzaga losing in an early upset to Wichita State; and I have KU losing Georgetown. I have seen IU lay too many eggs to think they can get through.

As for the B1G, out of their 7 teams, I have 5 in the sweet 16 and 2 in the elite 8 with those two (OSU and Wisco) playing to get into the Final 4.

As for OSU, they have a nice draw and last year's team would've walked into the final 4 with that draw. The Buckeyes are playing their best ball of the year (8 straight wins) and that bodes well. Their defense, particularly at both guard positions, is without equal and that should help them avoid becoming a victim of a Cinderella.

Now that said, we know that OSU can struggle to score mightily at times so anything can happen, but you have to love the draw.

[mattvan1]

Incidentally, I'm not "conspiracy guy" - don't think a whole lot in major sports is fixed, however, it is pretty clear that these guys go in with the goal of not having a mid-major win this thing. Take for instance this year MM with steam, St. Louis. Go ahead and givem about the toughest run for a 4 seed in thie history of the game. You look back on brackets of recent years you'll find highly regarded mid-majors with really tough roads, or a committee favorite - matching them up in the second round.

Do you consider Gonzaga a MM? 'Cause the West is a sham. I mean good for the Buckeyes but the rest of the draw is pretty meh compared to the Midwest. Not sure how The U didn't get a #1.

[neoleo]

Do you consider Gonzaga a MM? 'Cause the West is a sham. I mean good for the Buckeyes but the rest of the draw is pretty meh compared to the Midwest. Not sure how The U didn't get a #1.

Hopefully for the Buckeyes this is payback for the year we were the #1 overall and got a loaded bracket that included North Carolina, Syacuse, Kentucky, West Virginia, Villanova, Xavier and Marquette.

[furls]

That year OSU was the clear #1 and had the most brutal tournament draw I can remember. Funny that Gene Smith was on the committee that year too.

F' that guy.

[HoodooMan]

That year OSU was the clear #1 and had the most brutal tournament draw I can remember.

Louisville just got Duke, MSU, and St Louis. You must have a short memory. : )

[peeker643]

Meh...

You don't play every difficult team in your region and someone always comes out. If you can't get out then you probably didn't deserve it, no?

[HoodooMan]

I've really enjoyed watching Big 10 basketball this year, but I think it'll be interesting to see how teams that can sometimes struggle offensively like OSU, MSU, and WIS do in the tournament. Iowa St, Memphis, and Ole Miss would/will definitely make for some interesting contrasts in style.

And I wonder if this Michigan team is doomed to repeat the failures of those recent Purdue Hummel-Johnson-OtherGuyICan'tRememberAlready teams. Nice talent that never really finds any chemistry and repeatedly chokes in the tournament. I think probably so, but I'm allowing myself to be suckered into picking them anyway, just like I picked Purdue.

[furls]

I don't know man, I think that 2011 OSU tournament draw sucked way worse than what Louisville got this year. Ohio State's region had:
1. OSU
2. UNC
3. Syracuse
4. UK (ridiculously underrated talented team that actually won the region)

B1G was definitely good basketball. The season was just a grind for all the good teams. It will be really interesting to see if that grind translates into a good tournament showing. I don't have to try to hard to imagine a way that the B1G could have 3 teams in the final four, not likely but who knows.

I agree with your assessment on scUM nice players, but the team doesn't seem better than the sum of the parts.

Gonna be interesting to see how a league that is comfortable playing in the 60s does against the rest of the country. Is it because the defenses are good, or is it because the O's are sooo bad? It looks like both sometimes.

[e0y2e3]

I didn't watch a second of the game yesterday because OSU's meh O plus Bo Ryan's murdering of the sport was about as uninteresting a basketball game as I could imagine.

Unlike the week before when I caught every awesome second of Indy/UM.

[fairvis]

OSU's had pretty awful draws the past few years with more talented teams. I can remember the 2006 draw where we got matched up as a 2 seed in Dayton against Roy Hibbert's Georgetown. Hibbert >> Terence Dials, and that was all she wrote. Plus it meant that the band only got a trip to Dayton for the tourney, which pretty much sucks.

That 2011 draw really did bite, though. And that team was special, and would've been unworldly if ET had stayed for his senior year.

[HoodooMan]

Unlike the week before when I caught every awesome second of Indy/UM.

!

[peeker643]

I didn't watch a second of the game yesterday because OSU's meh O plus Bo Ryan's murdering of the sport was about as uninteresting a basketball game as I could imagine.

Unlike the week before when I caught every awesome second of Indy/UM.

So very beneath you to watch college hoops. Were you chained to a radiator in front of the TV?

[HoodooMan]

I don't know man, I think that 2011 OSU tournament draw sucked way worse than what Louisville got this year...

OSU definitely had a tough draw that year, but most of this regular season was a battle between Indiana & Duke for the #1 overall ranking, and Duke's still only lost one game with a full healthy lineup including their dorky chinless stretch four (and to a team that just seems to be a bad matchup for them). IMO, MSU at their best looks better than any team in the country. St Louis is probably underseeded as a 4. OkSt isn't quite the NBA-talent-having underachiever that Kentucky was for OSU, but a projected Top 5 player and at least one other NBA prospect is more than Louisville has.

Eh.

Just like OSU, if Louisville loses, it's probably going to be because they just weren't good enough. Louisville, Georgetown, and Syracuse wish their offenses had the upside of MSU, OSU, and WIS.

[e0y2e3]

I didn't watch a second of the game yesterday because OSU's meh O plus Bo Ryan's murdering of the sport was about as uninteresting a basketball game as I could imagine.

Unlike the week before when I caught every awesome second of Indy/UM.

So very beneath you to watch college hoops. Were you chained to a radiator in front of the TV?

I was at the gym.

And I've always watched college hoops to watch prospects and OSU!

It's just recently that my hate for Sullinger/Buford as team leaders made me unable to tolerate OSU.

[furls]

So here is where the math geek in me takes over...

Even if you are favorite in every game, your odds of winning the tournament are still actually pretty small.

If you are 51% likely to win every game then your odds of winning are only 1.7% even though you were technically the favorite in every game. That said, the likelihood of a team being a narrow favorite in every game is pretty remote because generally the best teams are heavy favorites in the beginning and narrow favorites in the end.

All other teams are generally favored in the beginning then turn into dogs at some point. Take a 4 seeded team for example: they are favored against their 13 seed, narrow favorites (on average) against their 5 seed and then dogs against the #1 seed. Most teams follow something similar to this progression.

The true odds for a #1 seed (or 2) are much better than that 1.7% suggests, because that first win is a near certainty from a statistical stand point, so even if they are narrow favorites (51%) in all other games, their odds improve significantly to 3.4%. Additionally, #1 seeds win 87.3% of their second round games, which means that historically the one #1 seed loses every other year in the round of 32. That means that a #1 seed is really more like 6.0% likely to win the tournament regardless of who they are assuming that they are narrow (51%) favorites to win their sweet 16, Elite 8, National Semi and Finals games.

Actually, #1 seeds reach the final 4 44.7% of the time, so the real decay of final fours looks more like this:
-1st round attrition: 0%
-2nd round attrition: 12.7% (~1/8), which implies 87.3% make the sweet 16.
-3rd round attrition: 14.1% (~1/6), which implies that ~75% make the elite 8.
-4th round attrition: 40.4% (~2/5), which implies that 44.7% make the final 4.

Pretty interesting that a #1 is a great bet up until their elite 8 game when they become pretty close to a pick'em (60:40 favorite). #2's don't enjoy anywhere near the same success and only reach the final 4 ~21% of the time. This is because #3's reach the final 4 about 12.5% of the time so that obviously speaks to the parity between 2s and 3s. So if you are going to put a cinderella in your bracket, it makes the most sense to pull it from the bottom half statistically!

[leadpipe]

Since 1985, what's considered the "modern" set-up only 3 of 112 Final Four teams have been seeded worse than 8. Only one team worse than 6 has made the championship game in the last 27 years.

Lotta people blow their brackets reaching too deep for Cinderella ILO.

[bac5665]

Watching the Bucks v. Iowa State, and damn, both teams are playing sloppily. Bucks really need to pick it up if they want to avoid being the next low seed upset.

[furls]

Buckeyes survive and advance. Lots of nice pieces coming together for them. Ross, Thompson and Scott are poised for breakout years next year. Scott's O is coming around and defensively, he may end up just as good as Craft.

This entire team returns next year unless Thomas is dumb enough to enter the draft early.

[bac5665]

This team may be scary next year, but I have learned not to put too much trust in Buckeye BBall teams. We seem to be inconsistent even with the best of talent.

[fairvis]

Man, this tourney has been great so far.

I have to admit, after Wisconsin, I didn't have too many expectations for the Bucks. But LaQuinton Ross has emerged as a good scoring option off the bench (almost microwave-esque), Sam Thompson flies around like a bat out of hell, and Craft is starting to really hit big-time shots.

I'd really like Lenzelle to sit a bit more and to play more Shannon Scott- the backcourt D when Scott and Craft are on the floor is incredible. It's also disappointing that the light hasn't come on for Amir yet- who was a high school All-American and very highly recruited. Can't hit on 'em all, I suppose.

Also, I can't stop watching FGCU. Those guys play with a freedom and joy of the game that you don't see at major programs, and half the team can jump right out of the gym. It'll be fascinating to see how they do against Florida.

[e0y2e3]

This entire team returns next year unless Thomas is dumb enough to enter the draft early.

Tank is 100% gone. He's not ever going to improve his NBA stock since he isn't going to magically grow or get more athletic. He is what he is at this juncture and another year won't help him change that. W/ a 1yr old at home and factoring in that he almost left last year to support the kid no way he is back next year. There is just nothing for him to gain.

Next year is Ross' year.

[furls]

I think they beat Florida.

OSU BBall has been pretty conistent. They have the longest running sweet 16 streak in the NCAA today, and the young guys are coming around.

[furls]

This entire team returns next year unless Thomas is dumb enough to enter the draft early.

Tank is 100% gone. He's not ever going to improve his NBA stock since he isn't going to magically grow or get more athletic. He is what he is at this juncture and another year won't help him change that. W/ a 1yr old at home and factoring in that he almost left last year to support the kid no way he is back next year. There is just nothing for him to gain.

Next year is Ross' year.

I think he had a much better opinion about where he was going to be last year. I think it is 50:50 the he even gets drafted this year. I agree that another year is not likely to improve his stock, but I am not sure that he will leave early to go play in Europe.

[e0y2e3]

He'll get drafted, he's a sure fire second rounder.

And that's enough to get him to go.

Either way, I do think his future is in Europe, guy just can't defend NBA fours.

[furls]

Tough to say for certain. He is NOT an NBA player, but he may get drafted. I am not sure he'll go. I think a lot of it depends on how much he enjoys playing at tOSU and whether the team can sell him that they may be able to improve his stock with another year. I think we both agree that they really cannot make him a better player, but they may be able to marginally add to his draft stock. The most important aspect of that is that sometimes people will believe what they want to believe, particularly when it regards their dreams.

Even if Thomas leaves I don't think it kills this team by any stretch. Ross is a pretty even substitute minus a lot of experience. Ross is longer and more athletic too.

[furls]

LaQuinton Ross has icewater running through his veins! Holy shit. That kid has a nice offensive game. CLUTCH.

[Squints]

LaQuinton Ross has icewater running through his veins! Holy shit. That kid has a nice offensive game. CLUTCH.

Money. He knew it the moment it left his hand. And while I don't even pretend to be a hoops junkie, Matta coached his ass off tonight.

[furls]

Matta did a great job at the end of that game.

[peeker643]

Matta did a great job at the end of that game.

The best coaching job Matta has done at OSU came in the days between the embarrassing loss to Wisconsin and whenever the game after that one started. Because you know he challenged their masculinity and character after that and something flipped in that team.

But he was excellent all night tonight. And having Craft on the floor to be an extension of what Matta wants and calls is invaluable.

Craft can't shoot a lick. But he's the most dangerous man on that offense.

[fairvis]

A good point I overheard on Twitter about Q's shot was that the refs had to check the monitor to see if it was a 4.

God, this team keeps on finding different ways to win. The refs were awful, alternating from ticky-tack to swallowing the whistle. Checking the clock to see the time left essentially gave Zona a free timeout- not really necessary with 2 seconds left. Added a whole 0.1 seconds, wow.

But still, Matta's been coaching his ass off and getting this team ready to play. Even Amir Williams looked like a competent basketball player today, and if he can start producing, then wow, this team has a shot.

[skatingtripods]

"Man, I feel awful for Tom Crean." - Nobody

[e0y2e3]

The best coaching job Matta has done at OSU came in the days between the embarrassing loss to Wisconsin and whenever the game after that one started. Because you know he challenged their masculinity and character after that and something flipped in that team.

That was only possible because Sullinger and Buford finally left. If you had those two front-runners still around this team would have crumbled. I've never seen two players that dealt w/ adversity on the court so terribly manager to be so lauded by their school.

Sully is so much better suited to be a just another player on a team than he was to be the man.

[bac5665]

It's part of why I like Craft so much. He knows he can't do it alone. He plays like a leader, not a star, and that massively helps this team.

[fairvis]

So, as of this moment, Trey Burke willed his team to win. I came back from the pub with a curry in order to watch FGCU play Florida and see scUM pull it off. My bracket's screwed now, but well done to Blue.