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BCS Analysis

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BCS Analysis

Unread postby jdrake10 » Sun Nov 19, 2006 7:22 pm

Per Jerry Palm, collegebcs.com
November 19 - 4 PM
The BCS is officially released this week (my chart is updated to reflect it), but do not be deceived. It may look like Michigan is 2nd, USC 3rd and Florida 4th, but really USC is 2nd. If these poll margins hold up (and that isn't a given), USC will play for the title if it wins out.
USC currently leads Michigan by 21 points in the Harris poll and 16 points in the coaches' poll. That margin is such that if you flipped Michigan and USC in two of the computers in which the Wolverines are 2nd, then USC leads. However, there is no doubt that USC will be the top-rated one-loss team in the computers if it wins out, and may be the #1 team period in some of the computers. So, if voters really want to see a rematch, they will have to come out much stronger for Michigan or hope USC loses.

Of course, even that may not be enough. There is a good chance that Florida will pass Michigan in the computers also. Michigan leads Florida by 69 points in the Harris poll and 21 in the coaches' poll. With that poll margin, the Gators would have to be one point ahead of Michigan in the computer average (for example, 2.00 to 3.00) to move past the Wolverines in the BCS.

What would really make things interesting is if Notre Dame beats USC. The Irish would probably siphon some of the votes away from Florida, but it's hard to imagine too many voters moving them up past Michigan. That could work to the Wolverine's advantage.
jdrake10
 
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