Sorting out the BCS

[furls]

This will be linked to an article sometime in the near future:

[swerb]

Furls, excellent column.

I've got Florida beating FSU and Arkansas in the SEC title game, and advancing to play the winner of OSU/Michigan.

Florida had more warts exposed against The Ole Ball Coach this Saturday, but I think escaping with that win in a game they did not play well in will really refocus this team, and enable them to get the two wins they need to get to the title game.

If OSU wins a close game, I've got Florida nosing out a one loss Michigan team ... but BARELY.

The BCS system is flawed, but it's providing for an incredibly exciting finish to the season.

You have The Game in Columbus Saturday. Arkansas/LSU, West V/Rutgers, Florida/Florida State, USC/Cal, USC Notre Dame, and the SEC title game are all just monster ball games right now.

[yargs7]

The consensus seems to be that if USC wins out, they are in. They are 3rd now with wins over Arkansas, Nebraska, Oregon, and possibly ND and Cal. The computers will eat that up and spit out the loser of OSU/MICH. Especially if it's OSU.

Colin Cowherd broke it down fairly well today. Here are his scenarios for each team to get a crack at the OSU/MICH winner...

#3 USC-Win out and in. Quality wins and love from the computers and media.

#4-Florida-Needs to win out, and have USC lose one, plus ND and Rutgers lose one as well. No love from the CPU's at 6

#5 Notre Dame-Win out and need Arkansas and Ohio State to lose. Can't jump a one loss Michigan team that beat them

#6 Rutgers-Need to win out and Have pretty much everyone else lose, although the computers LOVE this team at 2.

#7-Arkansas-win out and win the SEC championship. They need USC to lose to Cal and beat ND. They may be able to jump an unbeaten Rutgers with wins over LSU and Florida.

WILD CARD- OHIO ST/MICH loser. Slim chance at a rematch, but USC, ND, RUTGERS, and ARK losses will increase the chance of round 2.

I agree with this for the most part. The computers are a joke in my opinion. They have Rutgers ahead of Ohio St. And Notre Dame at #5. The human portion is going to play the key role in whether or not OSU/MICH will get another crack at one another. I cannot imagine the pollsters keeping the OSU/MICH loser ahead of USC if the Trojans win out.

IMO, there will not be a rematch for OSU/MICH. Personally, I don't want to see a rematch. FOr those who are in favor of a playoff, the playoffs start this weekend.

[swerb]

Good post, and good points as always Yargs.

[furls]

I typed that before the BCS came out for this week, I just guesstimated where teams would end up. Now that it is official, USC jumps FL/Ark that changes things a bit. It reduces FL probability under my model and increases USC stock some. Adjusted probability using my model and those changes:

All others remain the same:
adjusted it yields:
USC 35%
FL 19.5%

Here are my new numbers:

OSU 82%
USC 35%
Michigan 33%
Arkansas 20%
Florida 19.5%
Notre Dame 7.35%

Even wIth Rutgers jumping so ridiculously high, their chances have not really increased significantly because I have a hard time believing that an undefeated Rutgers team will catapult over a one loss SEC champ, or a one loss ND, or a one loss USC. The only place I think that Rutgers might get some loving is at the expense of the BIg Ten loser.

[Guest]

Odds from Sportsbook.com

Arkansas 50-1


Auburn 2000-1


California 2000-1


Florida 10-1


Georgia Tech 500-1


LSU 1000-1


Louisville 100-1


Michigan 4-1


Notre Dame 7-1


Ohio St 2-3


Oklahoma 2000-1


Texas 2000-1


USC 5-1


Virginia Tech 5000-1


West Virginia 40-1


Wisconsin 100-1


zx Field (Any Other Team) 25-1

[consigliere]

I don't know about you guys, but I am kind of hoping for an OSU/USC matchup in the NC. Skip Bayless can then go fuck himself when we beat them handily.

But, first things first.....Michigan. We win this game (which is going to be fucking touch for the Buckeyes)....and you can start shining up the trophy. It is ours. FLorida, Arkansas, Rutgers, USC, and Notre Dame have NO CHANCE against the Bucks. Michigan is the only team that can knock them off.

[yargs7]

I don't know about you guys, but I am kind of hoping for an OSU/USC matchup in the NC. Skip Bayless can then go fuck himself when we beat them handily.

I wouldn't mind that, but I want Florida. I'm sick of hearing about the SEC and I loathe Urban Meyer. Unfortunately, I don't see Florida beating Arkansas. So I'll settle for USC.

[jdrake10]

A great website for BCS analysis is www.collegebcs.com. The guy that runs the website (Jerry Palm) has all of the computer models figured out and at the start of the season posts "unofficial" BCS rankings prior to when they officially are released in like week 5. He also provides detailed analysis of what it takes to make it to the championship game, and what bowl that teams will go to based on all of the agreements the conferences still have with many of the bowls. He sometimes will post how teams would be ranked based on the BCS rating systems which seem to get tweeked every year.

It is a pay site, but the fee is not very much ($15/yr?). I will let you use my log-in if you want to check it out though. Email me at jdrake10@neo.rr.com if you want to.

[consigliere]

You know.....doesn't the "Nebraska Rule" come into play for the loser of OSU/Michigan? That rule that says you can't play in the BCS CHampionship if you were not your conference's champ?

So, isn't the loser of The Game tomorrow 100% taken out of BCS Title consideration?

Someone please clarify.

[pup]

There is no Nebraska rule. It was talked about, but never put into place.

[jdrake10]

Two teams can play in BCS bowl games from the same conference, however, three cannot. Therefore, Wisconsin cannot play a higher paying BCS bowl.

Opponents of this rule argue that this is a bad rule since independent teams are unaffected by it, namely Notre Dame.

Assume that Ohio St. goes to the Fiesta and Michigam goes to the Rose. Wisconsin may actually be attractive as an at large team to the Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl since their fans do travel well and they will be 11-1 after all. But this is not allowed so they are projected to the Capital One Bowl which pays a paltry $4.25 Million compared with the $15 Million pay day for a BCS bowl. Of course at least Wiscy will get its cut of Ohio St and Michigan's pie as do all Big Ten teams.

Rutgers robbed themselves of a big payday by beating Louisville and taking them out of the BCS championship game.

[pup]

The only adjustment off the nebraska mess was the added a "quality win" component to the rankings.

[consigliere]

Just an FYI....

But the money teams get for bowls do not affect what the team gets. All money earned from bowl trips are pooled together by the conference and then distributed evenly to ALL teams in the conference. So, Wisconsin getting $4M for the Capital One Bowl vs. $15M in a BCS Bowl doesn't affect them....it actually affects what all the teams get in the conference payout.

Whatever OSU and Michigan takes in, it will be pooled, and ALL teams get the same amount. Regardless if they were in a BCS Bowl or played in a bowl game at all.

[jdrake10]

You are correct Consig, that is my point about Rutgers spoiling the payday for themselves.

[yargs7]

So who are we gonna play in Glendale?

I think Southern Cal wins out and gets the nod over Mich.

IMO, the Trojans are the only team left that has a chance to jump UM. So, if they lose, a rematch is almost imminent.

[pup]

If Florida and Arkansas both win their final regular season games, then the winner of the SEC Championship game will also jump Michigan.

[consigliere]

If Florida and Arkansas both win their final regular season games, then the winner of the SEC Championship game will also jump Michigan.

Florida possibly. But Arkansas? No way.

Right now, it is USC or Michigan. The only way Florida was a shot is if they win out impressively AND somehow finish #2 in the Harris and Coaches Poll. Ain't happenin.

[pup]

If Arkansas beats LSU this weekend and then FLorida in the SEC Championship game, USC beats Notre Dame but loses to UCLA, they will be in Glendale.

By time the season ends, the voters will be so sick of Michigan/Ohio State talk they will vote Arkansas #2 in the human polls. If the computers like the LSU and Florida wins enough, they will pass Michigan.

Most of the country does not want a re-match. There will be no re-match, unless Michigan and Notre Dame are the ONLY 1-loss teams out of the teams with realistic chances of making it in.

[jdrake10]

Pup,
True, voters may be sick of Michigan and may not want a rematch. But it is too late for the voters to vote them down now. They had the chance to punish TSUN after their loss to Ohio State and didn't do it. Now they cannot justify lowering them without a reason. Being sick of rematch talk is not a reason. Only USC or Florida could be justified in being moved ahead of UM if they win out as they will have earned it.

Arkansas is too far away and has a USC ass whooping at home holding them down.

[pup]

A win in the SEC Championship game over Florida is more impressive to the voters than a bye, which is what Michigan will be dealing with.

Arkansas losing to USC was a LONG time ago. They played that game without their #1 running back and made a qb switch shortly after. This is not that team and those will be the prevailing thought with the voters.

Michigan has very little to go on in the quality win department, which will kill them. Wisconsin and Notre Dame are their best wins. When USC throttles Notre Dame, you can cross that one off. Arkansas will have wins over 3 different teams that have been in the top 5 this year. That will be what pushes them ahead of Michigan.

[furls]

Furls 5 (because the rest don't matter).

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Arkansas
4. USC
5. Florida

As much as I like Arkansas, they have 0 chance of getting in. If USC wins, it is OSU vs. USC. If they lose it is OSU vs. scUM. Let's not complicate it more than we have to.

The voters do not like Florida and Arkansas is getting very little props too. Right now scUM is #2 and the only guys that are going to displace them while they are idle is USC (who almost certainly will).

[swerb]

I agree with Furls. Only two teams have a chance to play the Buckeyes in AZ. USC will go if they win out. If they don't win out, Michigan will get the rematch.

[jdrake10]

I wouldn't exactly call the end of UM's season a "bye", but if you want to call it that you can. You can argue that Michigan has very few quality wins, some voters may agree with that, but some will not and even call their loss to Ohio State a "near win" instead of the loss it was. There seems to be a lot of voters who beleive this and did not drop them any lower then 2. The voters will not back off now, simply becuase Arkansas beats Florida.

Bottom line:
If USC wins out they jump Michigan and play Ohio St.
If USC loses either game, then if Florida wins out, they play Ohio State.
If both USC and Florida lose, Michigan gets its rematch.
Notre Dame is out, sucks to be them. They simply can't jump UM.
Arkansas is out, sucks to be them. They can jump USC if USC has 2 losses, but with USC in the near vicinity it will hurt them enough that they can't get high enough.

[furls]

If USC loses either game, then if Florida wins out, they play Ohio State.

Florida has 0 respect among voters and will not jump anyone. They would have to beat Arkansas by 40 and as a consequence everyone except USC and scUM is effectively eliminated. Although we disagree about Florida's chance to get in, we will never find out who would win because Arkansas is going to win that game by 2TDs.

So essentially, the other BCS slot comes to down to the USC vs. Notre Dame game. USC wins, they are in. Notre Dame wins Michigan is in. You have to also remember that a Notre Dame win also help Michigan's computer rankings by making the Notre Dame win an even better win.

Currently Florida is .042 (6 times the gap between USC and Florida) behind Michigan and unless they jump to number 2 over Michigan in the Harris and Coaches polls they have no chance to close that gap. It would take a pretty impressive win over Arkansas (who gets very little love in the polls also) to make that happen.

[jdrake10]

All good points Furls and what you say is possible.

I still do beleive Florida can get in though. The 2 "Human" polls (USA/Coaches and Harris) are weighted to be approximately 2/3 of the BCS total, but they are not exactly 2/3, and the avg. of the computer polls is not exactly 1/3 of the BCS total either.

The interesting part is that if you are #2 in the human polls, that does not correlate to being "1 point" better than #3 as you would sort of expect. It is more like this, OSU is #1, USC is #2.1, Michigan is #2.3, and Florida is #4.1. Take a look and you will see this to be true. Michigan is actually #3 in both the Harris and Coaches poll which is something I missed before. But they are barely behind USC in these 2 polls, and ahead of USC in the computers by enough to squeak to #2 in the final BCS ratings.

To me it is not much of a stretch for Florida to jump only one place over Michigan (in the human polls) if they win out. But I admit this is my own speculation.

[yargs7]

It's gonna be USC. They are gonna roll ND and UCLA. Arknsas, although they lost today, will beat Florida's ass.

Too bad LSU choked in two close ones, they seem to be the best all around team in the SEC.

[consigliere]

I want USC. One, because I can't stand Carroll and Skip Bayless....and two, because I have a soft spot for the old Big 10/Pac 10 Bowl matchups.

[swerb]

It's as simple as this.

USC beats UCLA, and it's Ohio State - USC.

USC loses? It's the Ohio State - Michigan rematch.

Most of the BCS geeks are saying Florida would have to beat Arkansas by about 40 to jump Michigan.