The Indians made a push for the division in 2005, the exact year he pinpointed a return to contention. And, to give credit where credit is due, 93 wins would have made the playoffs in most years.
Here's the thing about that "Perfect Storm": this is oversimplifying a bit. Now Rigs does note that Millwood and Wickman were on the block up until the trade deadline. They were kept, and the team began to excel...but even that covers over the fact that Indians were really mediocre for the first half of the season. As I noted in a CS post a few days ago, the Tribe was only one game over .500 on July 22, and only two above .500 on July 27 (the week before the deadline!):
July 27 / First 104 Games: 52-50
Remaining 58 Games: 41-17
So, here's the issue: the Indians for the first 4 months of the 2005 were worse than the team's "true talent level," while the last 2 months were much better than the team's talent level...leading to 93 wins.
Now, it's possible that this year's team is going through something similar, even if for different reasons. I've been disappointed, but I still don't think that this is merely a .500 team. OTOH, to expect a repeat of last year's final two months is hoping for too much...so, provided that the Indians can make their move sometime before late July, they can still be in decent shape.
Of course, the pessimist's view is that those last two months last year weren't just an anamoly, but one without
any basis in reality...and the beginning of last season and this season so far are more accurate. But, you can't just ignore 41-17...right?
