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A Case For Jhonny

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A Case For Jhonny

Unread postby swerb » Sun Jul 08, 2007 11:11 pm

poddawg was having some computer issues. He sent this to me to post for him. A very interesting analysis.

I’m a big Jhonny fan, but also one of his sharpest critics. I’ve felt from amature-ish observation he would look better at third base. Art Gold posted several days ago Jhonny’s “range at short” numbers weren’t actually that bad. Well, my OCD kicked in and I ran some numbers to see how Jhonny stacks up.

I looked at: (1) height/weight (2) salaries (3) offensive stats(4) defensive stats and came up with some interesting data..

The protypical shortstop is 6 foot ¾ inches tall and weighs 176 pounds. Jhonny is right there at 6 foot tall and 180 pounds (reported).

I ran a limited analysis of the top 25 relevant major league shortstops and listed them from highest to lowest salary while listing their Batting Averages, On Base %, and Slug% with corresponding ranks ( ).

OFFENSIVE STATS (www.Baseball-reference.com)

Name Team Salary/Mill/yr B.A. OBP Slug%

1.D. Jeter NYY 20.6 .340 (1) .413 (1) 476 (6)
2. M. Tejada BAL 11.8 .306 (10) . 360 (9) 423 (15)
3. E. Renteria ATL 9.0 .327 (4) .388 (3) 498 (5)
4.R. Furcal LAD 8.7 .274(15) . 340(15) 353(190
5.O. Cabrera CAL 7.5 .339 (2) . 375 ( 8 ) 458 ( 11 )
6.C. Guillen DET 5.0 .320 (7) .388 (3) 565 (1)
7.J. Rollins PHI 5.0 .286 (12) .330 (16) 511 (3)
8. J. Lugo BOS 4.95 190 (25) .256 (25) 283 (25)
9.J. Wilson PIT 4.75 .260 ( 18 ) .315 (17) 364 ( 18 )
10.C. Guzman WAS 4.2 .329 (3) .382 (6) 486 (10)
11.O. Vizquel SFR 3.6 . 236 (20) .288 (23) 302 (24)
12.D. Eckstein STL 3.3 .313 (9) .357 (10) 385 (16)
13.J. Urib CHISX 3.15 .233 (22) .290 (22) 345 (20)
14.M. Young TEX 3.075 .295 (11) 346 (13) 406 (15)
15.J. Reyes NYM 2.875 .319 ( 8 ) .401 (2) 457 (12)
16A. Everett HOU 1.9 .228 (24) .295 (19) 316 (23)
17.J. Peralta CLE 1.0 .284 (13) .354 (4) 470 (9)
18.R. Clayton TOR 1.0 .236 (20) .290 (22) 331 (22)
19.R. Crosby OAK .800 . 231 (23) . 280 (24) 349 (21)
20.Y. Bentancourt SEA .677 .278 (14) 302 ( 18 ) 383 (17)
21.K. Greene SD .405 .242 (19) .295 (20) 474 ( 8 )
22.J. Hardy MIl .355 278 (13) 340 (14) 505 (4)
23.H. Ramirez FLA .327 325 (5) .384 (5) 517 (2)
24.B. Harris TBAY N/A 320 (6) .377 (7) 488 (7)
25.T. Tulowitzki COL N/A .280 (17) 351 (17) 427 (13 )

League Average: 4.38 .270 .325 .470
Jhonny 1.0 .284 .354 .406
Differential: - 3.38 +.014 +.029 .064

Jhonny’s Rank: 17th 13th 4th 9th

I ran a limited analysis of 22 relative shortstops and listed them best to worst fielding percentage while providing rankings ( ) in Attempts, Put Outs, Errors, & Double Plays. The Range Fielding game & Fielding 9 inning values were provided for comparative purposes and ranked ( ) 1-11 & 1-9 respectively.

DEFENSIVE STATS (www.Baseball-reference.com)

Name FP% Rfg Rf9 Attempts P.O. E. D.P.
[1.] Vizquel .988 4.78 (2) 4.99 (2) 226 (7) 118 (5) 4 47 (9)
[1.] Tulowitzki .988 5.31 (1) 5.33 (1) 272 (1) 131 (1) 5 56 (3)
[1.] Cabrera .988 206 (14) 122 (4) 4 59 (2)
[4.] Reyes .986 210 (11) 94 (15) 4 50 (7)
[5.] Wilson .982 4.73 (4) 256 (2) 94 (15) 6 56 (3)
[5.] Rollins .982 229 (5) 115 (7) 7 51 (5)
[5.] Greene .982 4.55 (5) 233(3) 99(13) 7 49( 8 )
[8.] Tejada .979 200 (15) 81 (19) 6 44 (13)
[9.] Uribe .975 4.58 (3) 4.75 (3) 209 (12) 112 (11) 8 47 (9)
[10.] Everett .973 4.56 (4) 4.38 (9) 193 ( 17) 94 (15) 8 36 (17)
[11.] Hardy .972 194 (16) 82 ( 18 ) 8 36 (17)
[11.] Harris .972 170 (20) 86 (17) 8 42 (14)
[13.] Furcal .971 208 (13) 109 (14) 11(4) 45 (12)
[13.] Young .971 4.49 (6) 4.68 (5) 232 (4) 115 (7) 10(6) 55 (5)
[15.] Crosby .970 4.48 (7) 218 (9) 113 (9) 10(6) 51 (6)
[15.] Lugo .970 187 (19) 113 (9) 9 (7) 37 (15)
[15.] Clayton .970 146 (21) 60 (21) 6 24 (20)
[18.] Bentancourt .967 4.44 ( 8 ) 4.62 (7) 228 ( 8 ) 129 (2) 18 (1) 47
(9)
[19.] Peralta .966 4.43 (11) 4.47 ( 8 ) 211 (10) 128 (3) 12 (2) 50 (7)
[20.] Jeter .964 4.43 (10) 4.66(6) 229 (5) 117(6) 12 (2) 65(1)
[21.] Eckstein .955 4.44 ( 8 ) 4.38 (9) 153 (20) 78 (20) 11 (4) 26 (19)
[21.] Renteria .955 188 ( 18 ) 99 (13) 6 37 (15)

League Ave. .968 4.01 4.39 219 109 8.5 48
Jhonny .966 4.43 4.62 211 128 12 50
Differential -.002 +.42 +.23 -8 +19 (-)3.5 +2

Rank 19th 11th 8th 10th 3rd 2nd 7th

These results SUGGEST Jhonny has top 1/3 range , DP ability with bottom 1/3 fielding skills. I would suggest our pitching staff induces grounders. As pointed out by multiple posters on this site and I concur, Jhonny has benefited from some liberal scorers especially at home. He does not go left well, and I have seen many balls up the middle I felt many other SS would have negotiated.

Assumptions: (1) Values posted are accurate and correct. (2) Official scores are “objective”

Conclusions:

Scientific methodology through this limited study suggests: (1) Jhonny fit’s the mold at height and weight (2) Jhonny’s offensive numbers indicate he is a bargain at a million dollars per year. (3)The defensive statistics are mixed, but still put him as a “good value” defensively.

Opinion:

Am I arrogant enough to actually think my “observations” and “conclusions” are more astute than Shapiro’s, Wedges, Jhonnys agent, and official scorers?

No. Shapiro is pretty smart and wisely signed Jhonny to a club-friendly contract which the statistics support.

BUT. I’m not blind either and I’ve been around baseball a long time and watched over 100 games per year of the Tribe. The Board and I have determined something “smells” on the Lake. I concur Jhonny’s defensive numbers have been significantly impacted (positively) by a very liberal scoring system.

Jhonny’s future is at third.

Please be gentle on your deserving criticism of this offering as my feelings are easily hurt.
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Unread postby psk678 » Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:11 am

Wow, thats alot of numbers to crunch. Good work, though.

I have one problem with your analysis. Peralta is listed at 6 foot 1 but he's probably closer to 6 foot 2. He grew about and inch and a half in the past season and a half. That might have alot to do with his defensive miscues.

But I do agree, his future is at 3rd and Cabrera should fit in perfectly, hopefully next year.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:17 am

Great post Swerb. I can't tell at all that you work with numbers in your job ;) .

I think the hardest thing to count on is the fielding percentage. There's always going to be homer calls when it comes to scoring errors. There've been some runs that have counted as earned even though an error should have been called. Jhonny's .962 FPCT is pretty iffy and it looks worse compared to last year when Peralta had 16 errors all year compared to the 14 he's got now. I'd say he could have easily picked up five more errors if the scorers at home went in a different direction and that'd knock his FPCT down to .948.

I'd agree that he's still a very good value. He's likely to get the out most of the time even with his problems. He also has shown good power.

I agree about his future being at 3B. The major issue, as Buff has pointed out before, is whether he can react quick enough. I don't feel the reaction time is the problem for him. Even though his range factor looks good, he seems to have the biggest problem getting to ultra fast balls heading toward the vicinity of 2B. His range numbers are inflated, IMHO, by slower grounders that he doesn't struggle with. Jhonny's not as fast as Omar or other shortstops and I think that's why he has the problem with going left - that's the furthest distance away and the ball can move fast up the middle of the infield. He won't need to go as far to get to fast rollers if he's playing 3B. It'd also allow him to focus on bulking up more and I do believe he can add more power.
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Unread postby pod2dawg » Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:11 am

Gentlemen, I have already apologized to Sir Swerb as I will you; I did have everything in nice columns etc. but couldn't crack the code. Swerb is definitely whacked getting this on so quickly with his "cluttered" schedule. A special salute to him again for this killer website.

psk, I thought Jhon was in the 6' 1" range,...f@#$%ck I don't know it was late.
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Unread postby The Math God » Mon Jul 09, 2007 9:58 am

Great analysis
I too think Jhonny might be better suited for 3rd than SS
If you look at his body he is a bith "thick" for a middle infielder
body is better suited for a corner

I don't think Swerb, or anybody else, has time to do it, but I'd like to see the same stats for a longer period. It has been a recent thing that people have expected a SS to hit in addition to play defense (thanks A-rod and Jeter). That has led to a lot of guys that are a bit shaky with the glove playing the position, just because they can hit.
Jhonny won't get a chance to play 3rd as long as we still have Marte in the system.
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Unread postby paulcousineau » Mon Jul 09, 2007 12:35 pm

I don't mind Jhonny at SS, though your argument is persuasive.

I think that the determining factor in his final spot will depend on the development of SS Asdrubal Cabrera vs. that of 3B Andy Marte.

If Marte doesn't develop the way the Tribe thought he would when they traded for him, Jhonny can slide to his right (although I seem to remember him not exactly thriving there during an attempt at 3B in Buffalo), assuming that Cabrera (whom the Tribe stole from the Mariners and is tearing the cover off the ball in Akron) keeps developing.

If the opposite holds true and Marte emerges while Cabrera hits some roadbumps, Peralta would stay at SS.

While he may eventually project as a 3B, I can't see them making the change without a legitimate or compelling replacement at SS.
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Unread postby furls » Mon Jul 09, 2007 12:38 pm

Jhonny won't get a chance to play 3rd as long as we still have Marte in the system.


I would not count on Marte as the future at 3rd Base. Could he back? Sure, I guess, but I am not putting my paycheck on him as a long term solution at 3rd.
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Re: A Case For Jhonny

Unread postby rk » Mon Jul 09, 2007 12:58 pm

Those rankings are off.

When you look at Tejada v. Jhonny:

2. M. Tejada BAL 11.8 .306 (10) . 360 (9) 423 (15)
17.J. Peralta CLE 1.0 .284 (13) .354 (4) 470 (9)

Tejada gets an edge on BA but you have him ranked 9th on OBP even though he's 6 points higher than Jhonny.

Also you have the MLB league average (408) slugging switched with Jhonny's (470).

I'm not sure why you ranked them by salary. Yes it's an indicator but salary doesn't tell you where a player should play. I think everyone knows Jhonny is a bargain but he would be at any position. That shouldn't affect the discussion of whether he should be a valuable 3rd baseman. Personally I think his above-average SS production and his average defense there is better than having average 3B production with above average (and that's just an assumption) defense at 3B. In addition I have trouble believing his defense will improve at 3rd as he still seems to have trouble reacting fast enough. At the hot corner that's arguably the most important part of playing the position. And I have no idea how long it would take him to adjust to throwing regularly from 3rd.
Last edited by rk on Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Mon Jul 09, 2007 1:12 pm

Marte has never been a super high-end prospect in my eyes because he's never been a guy who'll hit for a great average. It's the power that's the major draw to Marte:

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... arte.shtml

That power potential still makes him valuable in trade, even now. He continues to show the ability to hit in the .260 range with 30 HR power. He's pulled his average up past that in Buffalo now.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/st ... ?id=429708

His Ks aren't bad for that kind of power either.

The question for the Tribe is whether we're better off with Peralta at 3B with Cabrera at SS or better with Marte at 3B and Peralta at SS. If Marte pans out we'd be better off powerwise with both Marte and Peralta on the team, but that's not the whole story. A team needs more than just power hitters. It needs guys who keep it on the ground, getting on base and moving runners. It also needs superior defensive play in the middle. There's no doubt that this team would be much better defensively with Cabrera. Numerous scouts have said he's a Gold Glove caliber defender there.

Cabrera also continues to hit lights out in Akron at a young age (21).

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb ... pid=452678

He can steal bases and is good at drawing walks.

Peralta and Marte would likely mean more power, but Cabrera and Marte together would probably hit for a better average with more stolen bases. I'm also convinced that Peralta at 3B would turn into a 30HR guy who can actually focus more on hitting because he won't have to be as concerned about being the defensive heart of the infield. He'll also be able to bulk up. Peralta looks like a proven version of Andy Marte with the possibility of a much better average, a better OBP, and more strikeouts. I think last year's Peralta model was the exception on offense because of his eye problems.

With Marte still able to get something as a prospect to a team looking for a future 3B, I'd seriously look into trading him prior to the deadline in order to get something to help us now or in the future. He looks like he can be a Joe Crede type 3B with a bit more power and there are plenty of teams, especially in the NL, that would like the upside.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Jul 09, 2007 2:44 pm

Marte isn't all that valuable right now. And, to assume he'll be a Crede is very optimistic. If someone sees that, well, that might be with whom you want to deal. For power types, with the holes in his swing he has, that jump from minor league success to major league can be a drastic.

Again, the guy was traded twice inside of 90 days. This isn't the norm for blue-chippers. Point being, if the Tribe hopes to aquire someone that is really going to help them in the stretch run, Marte will be an inclusion, not a feature.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Mon Jul 09, 2007 3:23 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:Again, the guy was traded twice inside of 90 days. This isn't the norm for blue-chippers. Point being, if the Tribe hopes to aquire someone that is really going to help them in the stretch run, Marte will be an inclusion, not a feature.


Him being traded twice during a 90 day period means nothing if you look at the situation. Atlanta was in a tough spot at SS and had Chipper Jones moving back to 3B. Marte was blocked. Boston had Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis to block Marte.

It was always known that Boston acquired Marte with the intent to trade him to fill their CF hole. It isn't the norm for blue chippers, but that was an exceptional circumstance where Boston traded for the best name it could get to a team in need of a SS in hopes that they could turn around and fill their need. Atlanta didn't have any CF they wanted while we did.

He does still have holes in his swing, but his numbers look very Crede-esque with more power. He's also only 23 years old. He's got plenty of value out there for a team looking for a future 3B. It's not like he's 25 or 26 with these problems and his power alone makes him valuable.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:36 pm

You describe it as an exceptional circumstance, that which I agree. But it's also kind of the point.

As far as his status personally, in my eyes, the guy is in big trouble unless he changes his approach. There are a lot of mistakes floating around big league parks as far as poor pitches are concerned, but not nearly enough for him to succeed as is. I doubt he's ever a consistent starter, let alone star.
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your stats

Unread postby fsnrules » Mon Jul 09, 2007 4:59 pm

while i agree that peralta is a decent shortstop whose future may be a move to third, i take exception to the stats you used. no one uses on base percentage, slugging percentage and batting average themselves to measure player abilities.

i urge you to check out an excellent site called thehardballtimes.com. there, you will discover stats like ops (obp+slugging) and ba+. defensive stats are also available, based on batted balls, etc.

you may even email on of the writers to ask them to do the study you attempted based on the more acceptable stats they use.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Mon Jul 09, 2007 5:16 pm

Wow, overt spam. I'm awed.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:08 am

Lead Pipe wrote:As far as his status personally, in my eyes, the guy is in big trouble unless he changes his approach. There are a lot of mistakes floating around big league parks as far as poor pitches are concerned, but not nearly enough for him to succeed as is. I doubt he's ever a consistent starter, let alone star.


Maybe not, but teams will still see his potential at this point. Him alone is not going to get you a stud pitcher or anything, but there's a trade market for him. He's not going to help a team immediately, but he's not old and scouts outside of the Indians org may believe the Tribe is taking the wrong approach to him.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:16 am

Not much to add to what has already been said about Peralta, plus I have already said a lot about him in previous threads.

So I'll discuss Marte a little here. Batting wise, I think he can be a Dean Palmer type of hitter. If you take a look at Dean Palmer's initial season, you'll see he didn't do very well. Same thing for Mike Schmidt, Matt Williams and Howard Johnson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmede01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsho01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/willima04.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmimi01.shtml

Point is, it may not be a bad idea to invest a season in him.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:35 pm

ArtGold wrote:Not much to add to what has already been said about Peralta, plus I have already said a lot about him in previous threads.

So I'll discuss Marte a little here. Batting wise, I think he can be a Dean Palmer type of hitter. If you take a look at Dean Palmer's initial season, you'll see he didn't do very well. Same thing for Mike Schmidt, Matt Williams and Howard Johnson.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/palmede01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnsho01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/willima04.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/schmimi01.shtml

Point is, it may not be a bad idea to invest a season in him.


I'd be interested in seeing the minor league stats of the above players. I know in at least a couple instances they were taking lumps in the bigs at a young age because they were murdering minor league pitching. That has relevance for the fact that, as Bill James has pointed out to us all, Minor league stats are an indicator of what's to come.

To take the most extreme case of Schmidt. He struggled early in his career, but at 24 years old went .282 36 116, in an era not as "offensive" as today. Now, nobody claimed Marte to be in the HOF, however, with each year he's not a full time player his projections RAPIDLY decline.

My whole point is, at this juncture he doesn't seem to be close. If it takes him till 26 to be a regular, all of the sudden your not dealing with a big time prospect, your dealing with a guy that organizations have quite a few of.

To your point Art, if anyone thinks Marte is somewhat of the real deal, than the most value at this time right might be keeping him here, because right now his projectons around the league aren't all that high.

This is where the 6 figure GM comes in. It really doesn't matter if Art thinks he's worth keeping or Lead thinks they should cut ties. We're not the ones that need to be right.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jul 10, 2007 12:37 pm

This is where the 6 figure GM comes in. It really doesn't matter if Art thinks he's worth keeping or Lead thinks they should cut ties. We're not the ones that need to be right.





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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:32 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:I'd be interested in seeing the minor league stats of the above players. I know in at least a couple instances they were taking lumps in the bigs at a young age because they were murdering minor league pitching. That has relevance for the fact that, as Bill James has pointed out to us all, Minor league stats are an indicator of what's to come.


Ask and ye shall receive. Dean Palmer had a career .241 batting average in the minors versus his .251 in the Bigs.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... lmer.shtml

Schmidt did well in his debut in AAA, but didn't play much in the minors.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... midt.shtml

Williams only had one really impressive year in the minors but jumped to the Majors quickly.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... iams.shtml

Johnson was similar - shorter time in the minors.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... nson.shtml

To take the most extreme case of Schmidt. He struggled early in his career, but at 24 years old went .282 36 116, in an era not as "offensive" as today. Now, nobody claimed Marte to be in the HOF, however, with each year he's not a full time player his projections RAPIDLY decline.


Show me where his projections rapidly decline. Link? Sorry, but you seem to pull this stuff out of your ass. Some guys do take longer to click than others and Schmidt was a very special circumstance. How was only in the minors about a year before getting called up, showing exceptional power at a young age. He really should have spent more time in the minors but he learned on the job on a crappy Phillies team.

My whole point is, at this juncture he doesn't seem to be close. If it takes him till 26 to be a regular, all of the sudden your not dealing with a big time prospect, your dealing with a guy that organizations have quite a few of


List 'em for me. Which organizations? Name some players for me out there that have 30 homerun power but may have some problems with their swings?

To your point Art, if anyone thinks Marte is somewhat of the real deal, than the most value at this time right might be keeping him here, because right now his projectons around the league aren't all that high.


Show me the projections. The scouts I know down here still like him and, as I said before, disagree with how the Indians are approaching fixing his problems. Hell, I just talked to Cito Gaston yesterday about him and he still really likes him a lot. He's the one who has emphasized to me that Marte will never be a batting title winner, but he'd be good for .260-.270 with 30-40 HRs a year. Cito thinks a lot of teams still see that in him and would love to have him. He's not the only one of the current and former MLB players and scouts I've spoken with about the guy. He's drawn plenty of interest and still is well liked. The major issue seems to be how the Indians are addressing his weaknesses.

The biggest problem I see with Marte is I think he's one of those guys that needs to work things out in the Bigs. AAA pitchers aren't going to solve his problems. He needs to go to a team that isn't great and can sacrifice the ABs at the MLB level to him so they can build for the future with him.

The D-Rays like him and would consider doing that, but they also like Wigginton and Iwamura. They can move Iwamura to LF and would probably keep Wigginton mostly at 1B. Biggest problem there is that the D-Rays are hard to trade with and don't want to move any of their OF talent if they can help it unless it's for primo pitching. They'd probably part with Elijah Dukes at this point, but I wouldn't want the mess. They'd do a Marte for Gomes swap in a heartbeat.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:37 pm

How about Marte, Lofgren, Ben Fran and Sowers for Crawford?

And I know, and have preached right along with you about them not trading Crawford, but would this be something that would begin to tickle their fancy?
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:45 pm

Pup wrote:How about Marte, Lofgren, Ben Fran and Sowers for Crawford?

And I know, and have preached right along with you about them not trading Crawford, but would this be something that would begin to tickle their fancy?


I doubt it. The Rays have always had a big problem organizationally in regards to trades. They always ask and wait for too much. They'd probably want Miller and Lofgren in any trade. That's where I'd wave goodbye.

The local talk lately mainly involves what to do in the offseason. Rumors abound that Baldelli could go to Atlanta in a trade for Salty, though I'm not sure how much anyone would want Baldelli and his trips to the DL.

I also think that the Rays actually like their future pitchers and really would prefer bullpen help, but they'll not trade Crawford for 'pen pitchers. I think they would trade Jonny Gomes for it.

Their outfield is also not in the good shape it was to start the season. Dukes has been a huge problem for the team. Baldelli got himself hurt again. Crawford hasn't shown the power of previous seasons, though his OBP has improved dramatically.

Maybe they would go for something like Francisco, Marte, and Sowers with another pitcher thrown in. The bats for the future would be appealing and Francisco would actually get to play everyday for TB, but I still think their asking price will be way too high.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 10, 2007 1:53 pm

Umm, I wasn't speaking specifically about Marte. What I'm saying is that a player in general who isn't producing at the major league level at 26, projects far less than one who isn't producing at 22. So, unless I'm pulling facts out of my ass, from my ass this info didn't come. And, I already said Schmidt was an extreme case. He produced at an extremely young age, like almost all hall-of-fame levels guys do. (That fact not pulled out of my ass either, if I need to source everything with you from now on, there are two excellent essays on this in, "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame" and "The Historical Baseball Absract")

As to the rest of the post, the minor league numbers indicate what was inferred. Hope I passed the ass pulling test there.

I have MY opinion on the guy, more to the point I have an opinion on what his value is. You and your scout friends think otherwise. That's good, and I hope your correct, but if I said I agree, I'd be lying.

Look, I don't say your pulling shit out of your ass when you say the Cavs can move Larry Hughes, because that's your opinion. If my opinion differs from yours, deal with it, that's a major point of the boards, isn't it?
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 2:36 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:Umm, I wasn't speaking specifically about Marte. What I'm saying is that a player in general who isn't producing at the major league level at 26, projects far less than one who isn't producing at 22. So, unless I'm pulling facts out of my ass, from my ass this info didn't come. And, I already said Schmidt was an extreme case. He produced at an extremely young age, like almost all hall-of-fame levels guys do. (That fact not pulled out of my ass either, if I need to source everything with you from now on, there are two excellent essays on this in, "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame" and "The Historical Baseball Absract")


You were far more clear about that here.

As for Marte's age, the Indians officially list him as 23 years old. Wikipedia says something different, but I'll stick with the Indians and MiLB at this point.


As to the rest of the post, the minor league numbers indicate what was inferred. Hope I passed the ass pulling test there.


They didn't really indicate much of anything because all players are different. It wasn't you who drew the comparisons originally, but I'd say Marte fits a different mold than any of those guys because of his origin and how different the system is nowadays. His offensive numbers are still good, especially since he's played in some parks that favor pitchers. From what I've read, Buffalo is one that favors pitchers and tends to under represent power. Akron has an opposite effect. These factors aren't taken into account for the other minor league stats reviewed.

I have MY opinion on the guy, more to the point I have an opinion on what his value is. You and your scout friends think otherwise. That's good, and I hope your correct, but if I said I agree, I'd be lying.


Nothing wrong with disagreeing. If you said you were referring to 26 year old prospects about value declining then I'd have reacted differently. You only spoke about him becoming a regular at 26 and that being more common to find. I still find that a hard line to follow since he officially only turns 24 in October.

Look, I don't say your pulling shit out of your ass when you say the Cavs can move Larry Hughes, because that's your opinion. If my opinion differs from yours, deal with it, that's a major point of the boards, isn't it?


I never said you were pulling anything out of your ass on Hughes. You never said anything like this, though:

Now, nobody claimed Marte to be in the HOF, however, with each year he's not a full time player his projections RAPIDLY decline.


There is a point when that happens, this is true, but I'd say it's not until a player hits 25 years old in AAA. The greatest decline actually comes with unsuccessful tenure at the Majors - and Marte has some of that. It's the Brandon Phillips situation, though Phillips value was significantly lower because he was out of options. That's when value on an unproven player drops the most.

Marte is the youngest position player in Buffalo. Cabrera was the youngest player in all of AAA last year. He's not in the Bigs and is now in AA. Do you really think that since he's not a regular he's now worth less than last year? I'd argue that he's worth more because he's hitting well and showing he's fixing problems. I can't attest to how Marte is doing with his issues because I haven't watched a Buffalo game in a while, but I can tell you that his batting average has gone up in Buffalo in the last few weeks. It could be that he is addressing his problems. If he is an scouts see it then his value GOES UP and doesn't decrease. He's batting .359 over his last 10 games and is up in the .260s after being in the .240s for two months.

You're always welcome to have your opinion - and discussion is great to have. But I also can disagree with you and, in both cases, have inside information which forms the basis of my opinion. That doesn't make it right by any means because even professionals can be wrong. I just find someone saying the value of a 23 year old prospect is rapidly declining is silly. He's not as valuable as he was two years ago because of his MLB stint, but he's more valuable in trade than any other position player in Akron. He's young enough that the upside will intrigue teams that are trying to build or rebuild and he's shown progress over the last month to build on that.

And, as I said before, he should be traded to bolster the 'pen or other positions in a combo deal IF the org really feels Peralta is the man at 3B because Peralta is a MLB proven offensive force.
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Unread postby Duane Kuiper » Tue Jul 10, 2007 2:51 pm

According to Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating (RZR), Peralta is the worst ML SS.

Link

Barfield and Blake didn't rank much better.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 10, 2007 2:59 pm

Fair enough.

One last point about the value of a 23 year old prospect declining being silly. The fact that he isn't playing regularly at 23 puts him at a little lower level than one who is, because of the reasons behind it. A modern example would be Alex Gordon. He is, like Schmidt, getting playing time at his age and taking serious lumps. The reason he won't play himself out of the line-up is because of what he's done in the past, including success in the minors.

Our whole point of contention is not necessarily where he's at at 23, but where he'll be at 26. You would have to agree that if one is still bouncing up and down as years go by, with each year the relative success rate declines as well.

You think he'll be a nice player at 26. I think he'll still be struggling. This is why you feel he has more trade value than I. That's all.

Lastly, my post that started this could have been worded better, as I suppose many of mine could be from a linguistic standpoint. So, occasionaly I will fall victim to my poor journalism skills.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jul 10, 2007 3:17 pm

Duane Kuiper wrote:According to Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating (RZR), Peralta is the worst ML SS.

Link

Barfield and Blake didn't rank much better.


Since I hate the use of stats in this manner I will not pile on Peralta for some made up combination of factors to determine his worth. I do the same for the people that provide stats that say Peralta was a good defensive SS 2 years ago.

Use and trust your eyes fellas.

Peralta is slow to his left, allowing numerous hits up the middle. His range to his right is a step better, plus his arm strength kicks in and he is able to get more outs on balls he does get to going that way (helping his "out of zone" numbers).

Out of zone? That is funny to me. A top flight defensive SS has no zone, except his side of the infield. It is much like Larry Bird's range, which he was in as soon as he stepped off the bus. There was no such thing as out of zone for the greats, because they either had exceptional quickness to get to everything or exceptional positioning. Ours has neither, but at least he can hit 20 homers :roll :roll:
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 3:52 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:Fair enough.

One last point about the value of a 23 year old prospect declining being silly. The fact that he isn't playing regularly at 23 puts him at a little lower level than one who is, because of the reasons behind it. A modern example would be Alex Gordon. He is, like Schmidt, getting playing time at his age and taking serious lumps. The reason he won't play himself out of the line-up is because of what he's done in the past, including success in the minors.


That's always the case when you have an established MLBer. Gordon has proven himself in the Bigs and that does make him more valuable than Marte. The question is how Marte stands against other 3B prospects that haven't sniffed the Majors. Generally you need to trade prospect for established player and visa vera - that's just how it most often works unless two bigger names are involved for each team.

Gordon also plays for a team that can live with playing him everyday and seeing him develop at the MLB level because the Royals are not contending. I said earlier that I think that would be best for Marte at this point and that he'd have the best value with a team that is building. I picked Tampa Bay as an example because I'm most familiar with that org, but there are other examples out there. Marte isn't going to be a big item for a first place team because they'll not want to give MLB at-bats away for development. That's our big issue with him too.

Our whole point of contention is not necessarily where he's at at 23, but where he'll be at 26. You would have to agree that if one is still bouncing up and down as years go by, with each year the relative success rate declines as well.


Most definitely.

You think he'll be a nice player at 26. I think he'll still be struggling. This is why you feel he has more trade value than I. That's all.


I don't know if he'll be a nice player ay 26. I haven't looked at what the Tribe is working on him with and what he's improved since his time in Cleveland. I know he had holes in his swing, but those problems have been fixed for other players.

I think his potential still makes him valuable. There's always a risk that he won't pan out and if he doesn't then he doesn't. I'm still happy with the trade we made for him and I suspect that there's more than one team out there that'd be also willing to risk some veteran talent on a guy with the upside of Marte. There aren't a lot of sure bets when you trade for prospects.

I'd like to think that Miller will be a stud when he hits 26 and is one of the best pitchers in the Bigs, but I don't know if that'll happen. I've yet to see him in Cleveland and he may not translate. He might need to get extra work in. Who knows? A lot of people thought Carmona should come out of the bullpen earlier in the year but he's become a good starter. With young players there's a bit of unpredictability.

I think the greatest fear for Indians fans is that Marte becomes another Brandon Phillips. He's now 26 and doing much better than most fans would have predicted when he was 23. He had a nice season in Buffalo that year but then hit .253 there when he was 24. Now he's seemingly developed more power (on pace for 32 HRs), has a decent batting average, etc. As I said above, we got so little for him because he was out of options. The same would happen with Marte. I think his value drops next year because I believe he's out of options after this season. While he still has options he retains more value because a team can send him down and try to work on him. I think players that have been bounced around and reach 26 often lose value because the options are out. True, there's not as much hope, but a team has no choice but to keep them or put them on waivers.

Lastly, my post that started this could have been worded better, as I suppose many of mine could be from a linguistic standpoint. So, occasionaly I will fall victim to my poor journalism skills.


I really shouldn't have accused you of pulling it out of your ass either. I understand the concern and the viewpoint and I agree that there is a future of diminishing worth, though I don't think it's there just yet. Another bad stint in the Bigs and I'd say the value would definitely drop. On the other hand, if he gets called up later in the year and does well then the value goes up.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 10, 2007 4:35 pm

The Miller situation is a bit sticky.

Major league pitching is a totally different animal in regards to predicting future success, because of one major variable - that being injury.

This is somewhat hypothetical and subjective, but if you took the 200 greatest 20 year old position players prospects of all-time, you'd have a very high rating as far as career success goes. If you did the same with pitchers you'd have a signifcant number of busts, based solely on injury, which either ends their career or affects velocity.

So, your 22 year old third base prospect is almost always healthy and at full strength at 26. Your 22 year old pitching prospect, well, there is a decent chance he might not be.

With the numbers Miller has put up thus far, the Tribe should be in good shape as long as he doesn't get hurt.

Also, one last thing concerning Marte, and your point about him in the Cleveland organization.... I'll take it a step further. The guy should have been given a shot out of the box LAST YEAR after a great spring. All that stood in his way was an AWFUL free-agent in one Aaron Boone. He was stuck losing out to a horrible player because of organizational bias, you know, kinda like Brandon Phillips.
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Unread postby pod2dawg » Tue Jul 10, 2007 5:52 pm

Boys, that exchange between Lead & Mac with Pup thrown in was "intellectual discourse" .....awesome stuff. Keep it coming.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Tue Jul 10, 2007 9:39 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:Also, one last thing concerning Marte, and your point about him in the Cleveland organization.... I'll take it a step further. The guy should have been given a shot out of the box LAST YEAR after a great spring. All that stood in his way was an AWFUL free-agent in one Aaron Boone. He was stuck losing out to a horrible player because of organizational bias, you know, kinda like Brandon Phillips.


I agree fully with you on this one and I was one who championed that last year. Even though we were hoping to contend I figured who could do as well as Boone.

I also wanted to keep Phillips because I thought he could be good, but Wedge didn't want him.

That's the greatest weakness of this organization. They've been good at developing or finding young talent but are often loathe to ever play them, instead digging around for bad retreads like Dellucci and Nixon. I wasn't overly critical on the Nixon signing because it was for one year, but they need to stop playing the guy, I didn't like the Dellucci signing.

Even now I see the org failing to play Francisco or Gutierrez as much as they should. Francisco has done well enough in AAA and in his short time in Cleveland that he should be given a chance to start every day. He could be a good regular, for all we know. He doesn't have the power we'd like in a corner OF but I think he can bag a few dingers in a season with a good average, good OBP, 30-40 doubles, and 30 stolen bases or so. That's better than David Dellucci or Trot Nixon at this point.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Tue Jul 10, 2007 11:31 pm

MacPhisto said "That's the greatest weakness of this organization. They've been good at developing or finding young talent but are often loathe to ever play them, instead digging around for bad retreads like Dellucci and Nixon."

Absolutely. I think this has to do with attendance. My belief is that they are loath to finish much below .500, fearing attendance will dwindle to 1.5 million. So they would rather sign guys improving their chances of playing at least .500 ball. What I am saying is that they would rather go for assured mediocrity than take a chance on totally tanking (risk/reward tradeoff).
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Unread postby pup » Wed Jul 11, 2007 8:32 am

Absolutely. I think this has to do with attendance. My belief is that they are loath to finish much below .500, fearing attendance will dwindle to 1.5 million. So they would rather sign guys improving their chances of playing at least .500 ball. What I am saying is that they would rather go for assured mediocrity than take a chance on totally tanking (risk/reward tradeoff).


It ain't working.

And that is a poor excuse for a general manager. His job is to know who the best players are. He should know wether Fransisco is better than Nixon, or Delucci. If he is wrong about somthing like this, please explain what he has done to deserve his extension.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:22 am

Pup wrote:
It ain't working.

And that is a poor excuse for a general manager. His job is to know who the best players are. He should know wether Fransisco is better than Nixon, or Delucci. If he is wrong about somthing like this, please explain what he has done to deserve his extension.


Don't know how much of it is Shapiro and how much is Wedge. Shapiro gets the retread players, but Wedge may ask for them. I think Mark respects Wedge's input too much because he's always been his guy.

Right now I would blame Wedge for not playing Francisco and Shapiro for not forcing the issue a bit more.
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Unread postby pup » Wed Jul 11, 2007 9:56 am

Don't know how much of it is Shapiro and how much is Wedge. Shapiro gets the retread players, but Wedge may ask for them. I think Mark respects Wedge's input too much because he's always been his guy.

Right now I would blame Wedge for not playing Francisco and Shapiro for not forcing the issue a bit more


Not exactly anything that will make me like Shapiro more. If he is still listening to Wedge after getting burned on the Phillips debacle, then again I ask, why is this guy getting extensions?
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Wed Jul 11, 2007 6:54 pm

Pup wrote:Not exactly anything that will make me like Shapiro more. If he is still listening to Wedge after getting burned on the Phillips debacle, then again I ask, why is this guy getting extensions?


I'd say because he does have a great track record for building franchises with a small budget. He did a fantastic job restocking the Tribe's farm and he's better than most anyone else we can get. I agree, the trust in Wedge is a problem, but Shapiro has done more to help this team than hurt it.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Thu Jul 12, 2007 1:08 am

Although I find it to be one of baseball's most stupid analysis, the Indians have the lowest cost per win in baseball this season.

Normally that stat makes me want to puke, but if you take a look at the payrolls for the only the contending teams, I find that a little more acceptable. Shapiro is the clear winner so far this season for player cost on a contending club.
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Unread postby Prosecutor » Thu Jul 12, 2007 10:14 pm

If I understand this correctly, Marte is out of options and has to be on the Indians roster next season or be placed on waivers. He can't spend another year in Buffalo, right?

If that's the case, then the rest of this season will be very, very important, IMO. He's starting to hit, and if he continues to hit well the Tribe will certainly make a spot for him, assuming he's really 23 years old. If he hits .230 the second half, it will be a tough call. If he can't hit AAA pitching this year then he won't be able to hit in the majors next year. And what good is a third baseman who can't hit?

The Tribe should be strong contenders next year, especially if Adam Miller emerges like Carmona did this year, and if they find a productive corner outfield bat in the off-season to replace Nixon and Dellucci. They can't afford to play a guy who hits .220 at third base when they're contending for the division.

Is Marte the next Russell Branyon or the next Dean Palmer? The next three months could go a long way to answering that question. And the Indians need an answer by the end of this season, because the time to fish or cut bait with this guy is rapidly approaching.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:18 pm

Prosecutor wrote:If I understand this correctly, Marte is out of options and has to be on the Indians roster next season or be placed on waivers. He can't spend another year in Buffalo, right?


Unless my understanding of the options system is deficient, yes. He was called up first during the summer of 2005. If it had been a September callup then I think it would have worked differently. That started the options clock and he has three option years. The only exception would be if he had fewer than five professional seasons in the system, but that's not the case here.

If that's the case, then the rest of this season will be very, very important, IMO. He's starting to hit, and if he continues to hit well the Tribe will certainly make a spot for him, assuming he's really 23 years old. If he hits .230 the second half, it will be a tough call. If he can't hit AAA pitching this year then he won't be able to hit in the majors next year. And what good is a third baseman who can't hit?


About as good as a pitcher who can't pitch.

The Tribe should be strong contenders next year, especially if Adam Miller emerges like Carmona did this year, and if they find a productive corner outfield bat in the off-season to replace Nixon and Dellucci. They can't afford to play a guy who hits .220 at third base when they're contending for the division. [/quote[

True. That's why I prefer Peralta if he can play there.

Is Marte the next Russell Branyon or the next Dean Palmer? The next three months could go a long way to answering that question. And the Indians need an answer by the end of this season, because the time to fish or cut bait with this guy is rapidly approaching.


They may include him in a trade beforehand. I think he's definitely worth more now than he would be if we had to keep him on the 25-man or cut bait. He could be part of a prospect for prospect deal or something larger, but that's only likely if the org agrees with us and sees Peralta at 3B next year with Cabrera at SS.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:57 pm

Yes, this is Marte's last option year:

http://www.swerbsblurbs.com/teamContrac ... eason=2007
(scroll toward the bottom and see Marte's info)
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