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Some stats on the Tribe's hitting

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Some stats on the Tribe's hitting

Unread postby jb » Sun Jun 24, 2007 10:56 am

Just some things that have made me curious I thouht I'd share. This is like Terry Pluto having a conversation with himself...

Are we realy struggling hitting?

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&groupByTeam=true&checkBoxTotal=0&section1=1&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&sortByStat=OPS

Ummm, not exactly. It just seems that way when you put us in Detroit's division. That's a high 90's win team when healthy. We are probably 88 - 93 wins good. By any objective measure, being 4thi in the AL in OPS doesn't suck.

Now, here's OPS by MLB in the last 7 days. We're 21st and 20 some points down from the season sverage. That does kind of suck.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&timeFrame=2&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=&checkBoxTotal=0&section1=1&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=14&sortByStat=OPS

The last month is more like the season than the last week:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?statType=1&timeFrame=2&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&groupByTeam=true&sitSplit=&checkBoxTotal=0&section1=1&Submit=Submit&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=15&sortByStat=OPS

By the way, I know this is on hitting, but a quick peek at picthing show just how nice our balance is, despite Sowers imploading and Westbrook struggling to get healthy:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_team_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=AL&statType=2&sitSplit=&timeSubFrame=2007&groupByTeam=true&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

We're really overcoming struggles there.

Let's look at some of the individuals they chose to reply on heading into the season. I hope this allows you to paginate:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&section1=1&statSet1=1&sortByStat=OPS&statType=1&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2007&baseballScope=mlb&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&sitSplit=&venueID=&subScope=pos&teamPosCode=O

Again, this is sorted by descending OPS.

Now you can talk to me all you want about the platoon plan and how might change this, but I'll mak ethe case these guys are where they are basd on how they are being used in platoning or whetever They are where they are. . My thesis of why we are in a slupmp? One, we continue to be too dependant upon Prnk, and two, I don't think it is a slump. I think we are levelling off as the outfield isn't good enough and is moving to norms.

Grady is our best and we make a stink about the 35th best hitting OFer in MLB. Yawn. He lookslike an average strating OFer offensively to me.

Jason Michaels is next at 58th.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=346859

He's way over his SLG% and BA right now as a 7 year player. To me, this suggests he' s overachieving. He's under his OBA now, which suggests he can level out upward. My take? J Mike is overachieving slightly and WYSIWYG.

Frankie G has a pretty volitile smaple size. A week ago he was under the Mendoza Line. Now he's 89th in OPS and no one really know where he can go except minor's numbers:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=429711

Delucci was 116th before he ripped the hammey, which will end hs season at 100% even if he is back in September. Most of us said this was a dumb signing when it was made, and it looks just as silly now:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=113240

Other than a career year in Philly last season, DD's BA is comparable to his 4 year average, and the power of this 30 something 12 year vet has taken a tumble. I think this organization, shich preaches dollar flexibility and the need to spend wisely, has DD locked up for what, 3 more seasons at $ 4 mil / season?

Ack.

I think DD had a down season , but not one that was impossible to imagine.

Last is Trot Nixon at 133. He's horrible as a strating OFer for a contender. Horrilbe. His power numbers as a disaster, his OBA way down. I'd like to think he improves his OBA, but he's been on a consistent downward power slope that is precipitous in nature over the past 3 seasons . At best he bounces back and we have a punch and judy combo in right field. Meanwhile, we are supposed to compete with Ordonez, a possible MVP candidate, as our main rival.

There you have it - an outfield that goes 35, 58, 89 (kind) , 116 and 133 in OPS rankings. Given that there are roughly 90 strating OFers in MLB , we are sitting at the lower 1/3rd of each slot with our best hitters.

This will not win you a competitive division! Pronk having a poor season exacerbates this, as all of our power and hitting positions except the IF corners are sucking. Did you ever think you'd be uttering the words, "Thank God for Casey Blake" in June 2007?


It is especially sickening when you look at these IF numbers and rankings:

V Mart & Shop vac are retarded:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=mlb&baseballScope=mlb&subScope=pos&teamPosCode=2&statType=1&timeSubFrame=2007&sitSplit=&venueID=&Submit=Submit&timeFrame=1

jHonny is holding his own:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=6&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=OPS

Barfield is still a punch and judy hotter, but given his horrific start, and nothing els being available, he's doing much beter:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=4&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=OPS

And put simply, thank God for Casey Blake:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=5&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=OPS

If Shapiro's evaluation of good, young hitters includes Barfield and Marte, while the team went out of it's way to dawg Garko and jHonny, then Lord help us.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=3&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=OPS

My analysis?

Peeps are complaing about the hitting now.

I'd say we spend the first part of the season overachieving, led by V Mart and Casey and Garko. Pronk is the only guy who is playig lights out shitty. The rest are about where they should be, with barfield coming on. I imagine what you waw from April to June offesnively is a mirage, and what is coming, where we are in the last week or so, is closer to the norm of that these mediocre offensive players are capable of doing. V Mart + Blake playing lights out = Pronk playing way below average. And he's not that bad all year guys:

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=D&statType=1&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2007&&sortByStat=OPS

We are just too dependant upon Pronk playing GREAT to the point where if he is not playing well, we can't be better than average as a team. Again, we mainly suffer because Detroit does that which we will not do - sign goo players to fair market value, so we can not compete over 162. Sheffield is beastie this past month, Pronk is horrific for the past 30 days.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=D&statType=1&timeFrame=2&c_id=mlb&statSet1=2&sitSplit=&venueID=&section1=1&subScope=pos&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=15&&sortByStat=OPS

The bottom line in my asessment?

The outfield corners are loaded with below average aging players who are playing below average and showing their age. We can't run with the big dogs with this arrangement, and yes, I "get" platooning.

All we can hope for is a WC shot and pray that these stiffs somehow get unrealistically hot in short playoff series.

Thoughts?
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good stats

Unread postby rawdawgexpress » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:12 am

This is a good analysis. I agree.

When you have solid bats up and down the lineup (especially 5-8) the effect is multiplicative rather than additive. And I think your thesis Nasdag is that with nothing in either corner outfield we are just fatally flawed.

Sizemore
Blake
Hafner
Martinez
Peralta
Hole
Hole
Hole
Barfield


I don't mean to be glib but the fact is with Manny Ramirez is this lineup we are legit World Series Contenders. Add in a Closer and we would have to be Favorites.

With Manny behind Pronk they can't pitch around him. And he never gets into this slump- which I believe is 100% due to him not being pitched to and him pressing and losing his timing.

Thing is- Manny and a Closer costs about $30 million. I wonder if it would actually have been a good investment for Dolan- especially in light of the shit attendance and buzz the Tribe has gotten this year.
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Re: good stats

Unread postby jb » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:16 am

rawdawgexpress wrote:This is a good analysis. I agree.

When you have solid bats up and down the lineup (especially 5-8) the effect is multiplicative rather than additive. And I think your thesis Nasdag is that with nothing in either corner outfield we are just fatally flawed.

Sizemore
Blake
Hafner
Martinez
Peralta
Hole
Hole
Hole
Barfield


I don't mean to be glib but the fact is with Manny Ramirez is this lineup we are legit World Series Contenders. Add in a Closer and we would have to be Favorites.

With Manny behind Pronk they can't pitch around him. And he never gets into this slump- which I believe is 100% due to him not being pitched to and him pressing and losing his timing.

Thing is- Manny and a Closer costs about $30 million. I wonder if it would actually have been a good investment for Dolan- especially in light of the shit attendance and buzz the Tribe has gotten this year.


I look at this and agree, but my mind isn't on Manny. And I think we can win with this bully.

I'm thinking about Junior. He's back, killing the ball, he's priced right , and everyone & DU's Mom knows he's gonna get dealt.

Any way short of Carmona and Miller he is obtainable? Would you part with one of them?

He can come to a contender 5 hours from his home. We get a stud corner OFer who is mashing.

It's a pipe dream though.
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Unread postby rawdawgexpress » Sun Jun 24, 2007 11:31 am

"Any way short of Carmona and Miller he is obtainable? Would you part with one of them? "

Of course not. I think Cincy would be OK with 2 mid-to-upper level starters that we have in our system. If Dolan would take his salary we could get a good deal. Cincy needs to blow up their team- and we know this. Above all they need young pitching. No FA vets would ever go to Coors field Lite...

But my problem with Griffey is that he is not a reliable player to make it thru the second half of the season. I love Griffey, and he would fit in with our "good guys". But he just gets injured.
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Unread postby jb » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:00 pm

rawdawgexpress wrote:"Any way short of Carmona and Miller he is obtainable? Would you part with one of them? "

Of course not. I think Cincy would be OK with 2 mid-to-upper level starters that we have in our system. If Dolan would take his salary we could get a good deal. Cincy needs to blow up their team- and we know this. Above all they need young pitching. No FA vets would ever go to Coors field Lite...

But my problem with Griffey is that he is not a reliable player to make it thru the second half of the season. I love Griffey, and he would fit in with our "good guys". But he just gets injured.


How can I argue with that?
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Re: good stats

Unread postby pod2dawg » Sun Jun 24, 2007 12:09 pm

rawdawgexpress wrote:This is a good analysis. I agree.
I wonder if it would actually have been a good investment for Dolan- especially in light of the shit attendance and buzz the Tribe has gotten this year.


Brilliant analysis by JD and observation by rawdawgEx.

Boys you've crystallized my thoughts, I'm to the point as a Tribe fan (plug in Browns, Cavs) where it's time to "get er done." We aren't all Cretins , I am, but you aren't. The average Cleveland fan knows in his heart what JD's statisical analysis revealed ( OF = 35,58, 89, 116) .....translation :Dolan has Shapiro which has Wedge shaking the witch doctor's little bone bag and spilling out a line-up and pitching while chanting spells with a bleeding chicken and a goat burning on the altar. Ain't happening. We common folk aren't going to burn our shrinking disposable income ( entertainment $$$) let alone our emotional investment just to have our hearts carved out by teams with ..well you know the rest.

Good-bye Nixon. I'm sorry your knees are shot, so are mine. You boys hit it on the head with the Tribe's needs. We are so close NOW. The window is closing CC & Pronk won't be playing for the same team soon. We've got the nucleus, get right handed power stick...or Griffey, play the kids to see what they got at the other corner OF, and a closer. Then watch the attendance.
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