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Hafner Extension

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Hafner Extension

Unread postby ArtGold » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:27 am

Turning down the extension is surprising, but you have to remember Hafner has a very strong mercenary streak. It has been a few years, but as I recall it he had an agent who worked with him to get him drafted, and negotiated all of his contracts up until his extension with the Indians.

As I remember it, and I may be wrong, he fired his agent when it came time to negotiate an extension with the Indians and went with Jeff Moorad instead, because he had a more extensive history of negotiating big contracts.

Not ripping on Hafner, it is a business and he is a businessman. Just stating that he appears to be someone who is apt to optimize his income, and he may have thought he could do better than what was offered.

Us fans are sometimes more sentimental than the players.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:35 am

If the Tribe did offer 5 years/60M, then I am surprised as that's far & away the largest contract offer in Tribe history.

OTOH, I don't blame Pronk for turning it down. Based on his numbers from 2004-2006, he deserves to be paid like the top hitters in the game.

If he continues to slump this year, he may regret turning it down, but if he reverts back to 2004-06 form, he will get much more from the Bankees, Angels, Chisox, Tigers, etc.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:39 am

According to Ingraham, and in another thread, the Indians actually offered more than the 5/60 Gammons reported.

Two sources say the deal was either 4/60 or 5/70. Either way, those deals are even BETTER than the reported 5/60 Gammons mentioned. THat is $15M per.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:42 am

Consig, do you actually believe that Dolan is willing to pay that kind of money to Pronk?

If so, what would be your guesstimates on how high they'll be willing to bid to keep CC?
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Unread postby Crash Davis » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:48 am

I am leary on anything coming from the PD, who was the other source Consig?
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Unread postby ArtGold » Fri Jun 22, 2007 11:58 am

Ooops, I meant to post my comment in the other thread.

Keeping in mind he is a DH, what is his real value, assuming he can't play in the NL?
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Unread postby jjgmyers » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:17 pm

Two sources say the deal was either 4/60 or 5/70. Either way, those deals are even BETTER than the reported 5/60 Gammons mentioned. THat is $15M per.



I sure in the hell hope that is incorrect. 15 mil per for a DH already turned 30? Massive guys like him tend to break down a lot sooner than most too
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:23 pm

ArtGold wrote:Ooops, I meant to post my comment in the other thread.

Keeping in mind he is a DH, what is his real value, assuming he can't play in the NL?


I don't think it's $15M unless the Yankees would pay it. With their fortunes right now, I could see that philosophy changing. The other big money AL team already has their DH, Ortiz, locked up.

I'm not sure if anyone else in our division would pay that money. The White Sox might, but they may still have problems come Hafner's free agency year. I don't see the Tigers doing it with their salary burden.

Outside the division, I don't see the Jays making a serious play. Devil Rays - ha!. Yankees, maybe - but they may be leery with the Giambi stuff and other problems. BoSox - nope. Orioles - maybe if they're desperate, but they'll probably still stink. Angels? Probably not. A's? Nope. Mariners? Maybe. Rangers? Who knows?

It's a limited market for Hafner if he can't play 1B everyday. He's also in the midst of a subpar season. If it happens again then his price will drop through the floor.

His agent might be thinking he can get $18-20M per annum. David Ortiz is only making $12.5M per year through the length of his contract. I'm not sure any AL team will want to pay more than that.

How much of the Indians' offer was up front and how much deferred money was in it? That's what I want to know. The large numbers suggest to me that there's plenty of deferred money in there. How long is the deferment? If there was a contract paying $15M a year with no deferred money then I'd guess Hafner would take it. I'd say he'd be stupid if he didn't - or his agent is filling his head with dreams I don't think will come to reality. One bad injury before his free agent year or a two back-to-back weak seasons will lose him a lot of money. He could have been set for life, guaranteed.
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Unread postby furls » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:32 pm

I would trade him or let him go. I cannot see paying a guy (with no utility outside of the batter's box) in excess of 15 million (which seems to be what he is looking for) with the current market constraints on the Indians. The money would be better spent resigning Sabathia at 20million per year.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:36 pm

Furls wrote:with the current market constraints on the Indians. The money would be better spent resigning Sabathia at 20million per year.


I agree wholeheartedly, but with the current market constraints, would the Tribe bid anywhere near 20M per year to keep CC? I'll believe it when I see it.
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:45 pm

Eckersley wrote:I agree wholeheartedly, but with the current market constraints, would the Tribe bid anywhere near 20M per year to keep CC? I'll believe it when I see it.


If they're willing to pay Hafner $15M then I would think they'd give CC $20M if they don't keep Hafner. That's only $5M more - a pittance in the great scheme of things.

I'm in the same camp. I'd trade Hafner in the offseason if he doesn't sign an extension and hope that he improves greatly before the season ends so we can maximize his trade value.
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Unread postby pup » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:46 pm

I agree wholeheartedly, but with the current market constraints, would the Tribe bid anywhere near 20M per year to keep CC? I'll believe it when I see it.


More likely will be their bid of 18.5 million, followed by the shock and horror of him signing for 20.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Fri Jun 22, 2007 12:47 pm

Eckersley wrote:
Furls wrote:with the current market constraints on the Indians. The money would be better spent resigning Sabathia at 20million per year.


I agree wholeheartedly, but with the current market constraints, would the Tribe bid anywhere near 20M per year to keep CC? I'll believe it when I see it.

I absolutely believe they would ... if it were a three or four-year deal.

If you can sell him on a short deal, convincing him that he'd still be in a position to cash in again at 30, you can re-sign him. If he wants this contract to be his career-defining giant payday, you can't. It's a pretty clearly-drawn line.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:11 pm

You could very well be right, Steve.

My question is, why would CC & his agent agree to a 3-4 year deal when teams will be lining up to offer 6-7 year deals?

Besides, I think the MLBPA would throw a riot if CC agreed to a deal like that.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:19 pm

Eckersley wrote:You could very well be right, Steve.

My question is, why would CC & his agent agree to a 3-4 year deal when teams will be lining up to offer 6-7 year deals?

Because he's 26 and confident in his health. It's not entirely likely, but a persuasive person could convince him that his career can either have:

Big short contract at 26 + big long contract at 30
or
Big long contract at 26 + who knows at 33

(Apologies if the years are not exactly right, the point is largely the same)

I could argue that he is likely to get a big contract at 30, meaning he'll get TWO ginormous contracts. I could argue that he is LESS likely to get a contract at 33 that is worth as much (in present-day dollars) as we're offering now. (I'm not sure I'd be right, but I can do sophistry when it suits me.) It's not a slam dunk, but I don't think it can be dismissed out of hand.

Besides, I think the MLBPA would throw a riot if CC agreed to a deal like that.

After Oswalt and Westbrook, I think they'd have no problem with it.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:23 pm

Hey, it would definitely work for me. If Dolan & Shapiro can convince CC & his agent to take 3-4 years, I certainly hope they can pull it off.

I'm not expecting it to happen, but if it does, I'd be elated!
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Unread postby ArtGold » Fri Jun 22, 2007 1:44 pm

While I would certainly like to see us sign him to an extension, I kind of agree with Eck that he wouldn't accept a 4 year deal if other teams are offering longer guaranteed money.

I can make the argument that he can make even more when that contract expires, but the injury risk may be more than his agent and the players union would be willing to accept. The Yankees have Mussina and Pavano each coming off of $11 million after 2008 (unless you think they will pick up options) so the money is clearly available for a $20 million offer to Sabathia.

I just hope we deal both this offseason for a boatload of prospects. Maybe if the Yankees sense they might lose Sabathia, they would offer Hughes + for his services (assuming his agent is willing to sign an extension at that time).
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Unread postby Mr. MacPhisto » Fri Jun 22, 2007 3:27 pm

ArtGold wrote:While I would certainly like to see us sign him to an extension, I kind of agree with Eck that he wouldn't accept a 4 year deal if other teams are offering longer guaranteed money.

I can make the argument that he can make even more when that contract expires, but the injury risk may be more than his agent and the players union would be willing to accept. The Yankees have Mussina and Pavano each coming off of $11 million after 2008 (unless you think they will pick up options) so the money is clearly available for a $20 million offer to Sabathia.

I just hope we deal both this offseason for a boatload of prospects. Maybe if the Yankees sense they might lose Sabathia, they would offer Hughes + for his services (assuming his agent is willing to sign an extension at that time).


True, but CC has to wait for it.

If he's healthy then he'll cash in, though will the Yankees become more leery of spending considering what has happened with Pavano and how little they're getting so far for the money spent on Clemens? You'd be betting that the Yankees won't change strategy due to the failure of the big money system they've been running.

If an injury occurs then it could blow up in his face. If the Indians came knocking with $80M guaranteed a year before CC can hit the market and bid out his services then he might take it. He won't be old when it's done and he's set up to succeed in Cleveland. He could then get another 4-5 year deal and possibly make more money.

Do you got for the security or take the risk that things will work out right for you? If the market is depressed due to the Yanks and BoSox not wanting to pay out then his salary could drop into the high teens. Good money, yes, but not what he would hope for.

Remember too that he will be a free agent with Johan Santana, Mark Mulder, John Lackey, Ben Sheets, and Jorge Sosa. CC will not be the top draw in that market, Santana will. Lackey might also be up there as will Ben Sheets.

With the market being flooded with good, under 30 pitchers I would think it'd be prudent to take the guaranteed $$$ up front because that's A LOT of competition for the limited money out there.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Jun 23, 2007 8:10 am

Steve Buffum wrote:Because he's 26 and confident in his health. It's not entirely likely, but a persuasive person could convince him that his career can either have:

Big short contract at 26 + big long contract at 30
or
Big long contract at 26 + who knows at 33

(Apologies if the years are not exactly right, the point is largely the same)


Buff, that is a good point. This is certainly plausible. Yes, it is a slim chance it could happen, but man, this makes a lot of sense.

Also, while I am here.....I see a lot of people scoffing at paying Hafner $15M per. I assume then, you are just fine with letting Thome go for $15M per? I know a lot of people bitched about it when he left, for various reasons. It always came back that Dolan was cheap or whatever....but if people are using the logic that you can't "pay Hafner $15M per because he is a DH", you are using that same logic toward Thome, correct? And, as a result, you are fine with him leaving and have no ill will toward Shapiro and Dolan? :-) :smile: :)

Just saying.

We are being logical about it now, but fast forward to November 2008 if Hafner would sign with say the Yankees at 5/70.....would logic still be in play then? :twisted:

For the record, I still try to keep both Hafner and CC. I think Hafner will be the easier sign of the two, but obviously CC the more valuable. I would be shocked if we don't sign one of them.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Sat Jun 23, 2007 12:21 pm

I believe both Hafner and Sabathia are represented by the same agent, Greg Genske. My understanding is that he took over Jeff Moorad's clients after Moorad switched jobs.

Don't know anything about his past negotiations history, does anybody have any information as to how he does in negotiations? Is he a highest bidder guy or does he try to negotiate extensions (like Westbrooks)?
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Unread postby tribefan333 » Sat Jun 23, 2007 2:10 pm

Wtf? Did we really offer a DH THAT kind of money, and he turned it down in the middle of a horrible slump? Around 5/60mil? Thats a [boat]load of money for someone who doesn't play the field.

If Pronk really turned down that kind of money, forget that---sign CC NOW then worry about Hafner. An ace lefty is more valuable than a DH.
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Unread postby Tribefan24 » Sat Jun 23, 2007 3:10 pm

tribefan333 wrote:Wtf? Did we really offer a DH THAT kind of money, and he turned it down in the middle of a horrible slump? Around 5/60mil? Thats a [boat]load of money for someone who doesn't play the field.

If Pronk really turned down that kind of money, forget that---sign CC NOW then worry about Hafner. An ace lefty is more valuable than a DH.


totally agree

we have to sign CC, forget about hafner if he wants to be real greedy let him walk... we can replace him (hopefully Beau Mills pans out)


WE HAVE TO RESIGN CC, IF NOT I WILL DENOUNCE THIS TEAM... OUR OWNER NEEDS TO STOP BEING SUCH A CHEAP WAD... PAY CC !



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Unread postby furls » Sat Jun 23, 2007 4:44 pm

OUR OWNER NEEDS TO STOP BEING SUCH A CHEAP WAD... PAY CC !


Fans need to quit being such "Cheap Wads" and start selling out that stadium. 1st place team (for most of the season) and they cannot fill the house. Fans have been saying that Dolan should put up the money upfront, put a winner on the field, then the fans would come.

He hasn't put up the cash, but he has a winner, but you would not know it based on attendance.

The Indians are averaging 23,778 per game, selling about 55% of capacity. Think about that the next time you say Dolan is a tightwad.


FYI, that is good for 24th in the league. Teams behind the Indians?

Baltimore
Washington
Pittsburgh
KC
Florida
Tampa Bay.

That is not esteemed company.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Jun 23, 2007 5:09 pm

Furls, I've been there and done that with that argument. It seems if the Indians had a $90M payroll and a losing team versus a $60M payroll and a winning team...fans would rather see the expensive losing team. :roll :roll:

Anyway, if I hear one more person mention Beau freaking Mills as a possible replacement for Hafner I'll scream. Look, Beau Mills ain't sniffing the majors anytime soon, and probably not until sometime until the 2010 season if all goes well with him. MAYBE he gets a sniff in late 2009. But, folks, if Hafner leaves at the end of 2008, Mills will not be ready to replace him at the start of 2009.

And even when he MAY be ready at the end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, he'll still be an unproven, green rookie. As a rookie, he ain't going to be putting up typical Hafner numbers....nowhere close! It will take a few more years from there before he may be able to probably replace Hafner production, say, in 2011-2012.
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