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The rotation question

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The rotation question

Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:15 am

Once Jake is back who stays and who goes? Common sense says Stanford will go to the bullpen or be traded. Lee looked good tonight and I don't think they will trade him. Westbrook just got the extension so he's not going anywhere. CC and Carmona are fabulous and have locked their spots in. If Stanford looks as good or better tomorrow as he did in Miami, then i seriously consider keeping him and trading Byrd. Byrd is not really as good as we saw earlier this year, we all know that. Let's face it, with CC, Carmona, Jake, Lee all solidified, we should move Byrd and what is left of his contract, and the 5th spot can go to Stanford. If he falters later, we'll still have Rafael Perez, Jeremy Sowers, Adam Miller, Brian Sloccum, and as early as sometime in 2008 Chuck Lofgren. That's alot of choices for your number 5 guy. Byrd could probably fetch us a back of the pen guy, considering he is signed for reasonable money this and next year.
I like to believe things happen for a reason. Carmona faltered as closer, so we could benefit from him as a starter. Maybe Sowers struggled this year, so we could re-discover Stanford, who had a to of promise 2 years ago.
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Unread postby VultureHxC » Tue Jun 19, 2007 9:51 am

i have to agree with you. we all know cc, carmona, and westbrook have spots locked up and it leaves lee, byrd, and stanford for those final two spots, as i can't see them going to a 6 man rotation. you do have to wonder what they are going to do. i can't see them putting stanford in the pen cause then they have to send someone down or trade someone (and i don't think the guys people want we would trade). i think wedge and shapiro like having stanford as starter depth. plus if he does move to the pen i can really only see three options:

1. mastny gets sent down (i think unlikely cause then we have 3 lefties in the pen)
2. perez gets sent down (i think unlikely cause he has pitched so well so far)
3. hernandez or cabrera get DFA (hernandez would be likely but would again leave up with 3 lefties in the pen. and i don't think they want to give up on cabrera just yet)

i can actually see them moving stanford more than moving byrd because of the injury history and byrd's experience
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Unread postby consigliere » Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:25 am

If Stanford pitches well, I would have to think he will go to the bullpen and one of two things happen:

1. Mastny is optioned out
2. Olderto is released

I think the former is much, much more likely at this point.

I see Raffy Perez going nowhere. He has been brilliant, and really done a great job in the long relief and 2nd lefty role.

I have no problem going with 3 lefties in the pen, especially when two of them are more for middle innings and long relief.
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 10:55 am

I just don't see Shapiro bitting the bullett on Oldberto. I think a very good outing by Stanford tonight, gives the Indians the luxury of allowing Westbrook to make one more rehab start, which in turn allows them to give Stanford a 3rd start and see what happens with Lee in his next start. I hate to give up on Stanford and think it will come back to haunt us. Look at all the people who complain about Brandon Phillips and now Guthrie. Those guys gave us no real reason to keep them and they blossomed, Stanford has shown us something and to move him would be stupid. What do you guys think are the chances that someone would be willing to take Byrd? I don't expect more than a AA type player, but to me the Indians need to keep the best players available and Stanford has alot more upside than Byrd does.
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Unread postby paulcousineau » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:01 am

Consigliere wrote:If Stanford pitches well, I would have to think he will go to the bullpen and one of two things happen:

1. Mastny is optioned out
2. Olderto is released

I think the former is much, much more likely at this point.

I see Raffy Perez going nowhere. He has been brilliant, and really done a great job in the long relief and 2nd lefty role.

I have no problem going with 3 lefties in the pen, especially when two of them are more for middle innings and long relief.


Agreed, though it's probably Mastny or Perez that will be optioned, unless they move Perez further back in the bullpen.

I would have no problem with giving Perez (who, you're right, has been brilliant) a spot towards the back end of the bullpen, but to have Stanford join Perez would be having two LH long men.

I don't think they're ready to cut bait with Hernandez.
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Respectfully Disagree Folks

Unread postby ArtGold » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:22 am

If Stanford pitches well and Byrd gets hit hard again, I would hope to see Byrd go on the injured list.

Rotation would be Sabathia, Lee, Carmona, Westbrook and Stanford. Give Stanford a few more starts to see if he is the real deal while Byrd takes a rest. If Stanford performs well you go another week or two, if he falters badly then you reactivate Byrd and send Stanford either out on waivers or to the pen.

If Byrd stays in the rotation I now expect no more than 6 of his remaining 17 starts to be Quality Starts (min 6 innings no more than 3 runs).
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:33 am

I don't think they will "create" an injury for Byrd, it just doesn't seem like something Shapiro would ask of Byrd. Let's put our collective intelligence together (God help us) what teams would have interest in Byrd. I know he's old and starting to look like typical Byrd, but he is does have an option for next year at a decent price by today's standard. I also know we won't get much in return, but there are always teams that ned the help and take a shot. For God's sake Mesa got a new job. We can automatically rule out the whole AL Central, AL East- I don't think the Yankees would still have interest, Boston maybe (hey they took Jason Johnson) AL West- Seattle and Oakland could have interest. I could see Seattle wanting him
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Unread postby Eckersley » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:37 am

captain_wahoo wrote:Let's put our collective intelligence together (God help us) what teams would have interest in Byrd.


If they've watched him pitch over the past month, then nobody would be interested in Byrd. He's been pitching batting practice.

Put it this way, if Byrd were a FA next year & willing to sign a 1 year/8M contract, (his option price) would you want to sign him?

Not me.
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:46 am

Come on look at some of the pitchers who still get work and flat out suck: Sydney Ponson, Jose Mesa, Jeff Weaver just to name a few. Pitching is a commodity and it always will be. Byrd isn't terrible, he can mentor young pitchers, and has post season experience. I guarantee that if the Indians were intent on trading him, they would find someone to take him and would probably have more than one team interested.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Tue Jun 19, 2007 11:57 am

captain_wahoo wrote:Come on look at some of the pitchers who still get work and flat out suck: Sydney Ponson, Jose Mesa, Jeff Weaver just to name a few. Pitching is a commodity and it always will be. Byrd isn't terrible, he can mentor young pitchers, and has post season experience. I guarantee that if the Indians were intent on trading him, they would find someone to take him and would probably have more than one team interested.


Look who you're using to compare to Byrd. The absolute dregs of MLB. Shouldn't it tell you that when you have to use the worst of the worst in order to make him look respectable that he himself is terrible?

Opposing batters are hitting .327 off Byrd. That's Jason Johnson territory & it's terrible in my book.

If we can find a sucker to give us something for him, I certainly hope that Shapiro does so.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:09 pm

Where I may differ from some of you is I do not think Byrd is the same pitcher as the season wears on. He may have been when he was younger, but I do not believe he is now (or last season). My view is that he either develops some aches or fatigue and compensates for it in his pitching. The first couple of months he is OK, but then I believe he breaks down a bit. Since nothing has been published to support this, I obviously am on a limb here.

I detected a slight change in his pitching last season, beginning in July, he looked like he was putting a little more "oomph" into his pitches, not as free and easy as earlier in the season. I also detected it a couple of games ago, hence my sentiment that he will have no more than 6 Quality Starts in his final 18 games. He has had one start since that statement, and well...

Maybe I'm wrong, but that is how he looks to me. Take a look at his Quality Start rate in 2006, splitting at July 1st, you will see a dramatic difference. He still had some good starts late, but they were less frequent.

Actually, I think that a few weeks of rest may help him significantly, and possibly allow him to become an effective pitcher the last couple of months of the season. But I certainly am speculating here, it is just my point of view.
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Unread postby consigliere » Tue Jun 19, 2007 12:21 pm

captain_wahoo wrote:I hate to give up on Stanford and think it will come back to haunt us. Look at all the people who complain about Brandon Phillips and now Guthrie. Those guys gave us no real reason to keep them and they blossomed, Stanford has shown us something and to move him would be stupid.


Phillips was the only guy we lost which was an assinine decision. There was a spot for him, and we lacked depth at that position in the system. Plus he was never given a second chance.

Guthrie on the other hand was just someone we ran out of time with. He was horribly inconsistent up until last year, and even when he was with the Indians last year he showed nothing really. I don't think many fans this past offseason would have felt good about the prospects of Guthrie in the bullpen. Had we kept Guthrie, then likely we'd have been complaining about losing Jason Davis.

Stanford is another player we just may run out of time with. We'll see what happens. I am a big Stanford fan. But, he was actually gone after last season, but came back to the Indians this past offseason as a minor league free agent. I don't think they'll lose him for nothing if they DFA him. He'll either clear waivers (unlikely), or we complete a trade with another team and get a prospect for him.
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:05 pm

I'm sure we'd get something for him, I just think the smart move would be to hold on to him and move Byrd. Despite what people think, I'm telling you at this time of year a pitcher like Byrd can be traded. Remember, we aren't trying to get anything of value for him, just creating a space for a better pitcher.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Tue Jun 19, 2007 1:27 pm

captain_wahoo, which one is it?

First you said....

Byrd could probably fetch us a back of the pen guy, considering he is signed for reasonable money this and next year.



then you said....

Remember, we aren't trying to get anything of value for him, just creating a space for a better pitcher.



I'm sure some GM would take Byrd if we asked for little to no return, but the only GM that would trade a back end of the bullpen arm for Byrd is a GM that wishes to be fired.
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 2:14 pm

It could be either..it depends how desperate the Tribe is to get rid of him. If thye just want to make room for Stanford you deal him now for whatever. If you wanna stash Stanford in the bullpen and hope that some contending team is desperate at the deadline and has suffered say a starting pitching injury you could deal him then and try for a back end guy.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:03 pm

captain_wahoo wrote:Come on look at some of the pitchers who still get work and flat out suck: Sydney Ponson, Jose Mesa, Jeff Weaver just to name a few. Pitching is a commodity and it always will be. Byrd isn't terrible, he can mentor young pitchers, and has post season experience. I guarantee that if the Indians were intent on trading him, they would find someone to take him and would probably have more than one team interested.


Depends on your definition of terrible. It is safe to say he's "bad" by anyone's definition. And, post season experience? That matters if you're still an effective player. Would you feel happier if he or Faust was opening the ALCS? The guy is done. The way to solve the Byrd problem was to never sign him at all. Man, was it obvious he was barely hanging on in the NL. Again, as stated previously, we will all look back on his two years here and say, "man, that was a poor signing."

As far as a solution, they've put themselves in a tough position. Winning teams do the correct thing, mediocre teams cater.
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Unread postby captain_wahoo » Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:23 pm

Hey look at it this way, when Sowers and Lee were sucking, he kept us alive by pitching extremely well for beginning part of the year.
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Unread postby Eckersley » Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:30 pm

captain_wahoo wrote:Hey look at it this way, when Sowers and Lee were sucking, he kept us alive by pitching extremely well for beginning part of the year.


Problem is, GM's don't look at it that way. They aren't going to trade you anyone of value because Byrd had 4 good starts in April. They're going to trade for his overall value & overall, Byrd has been not good.

He's been getting shelled since the 2nd week of May.
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