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The Tribe has to resign C.C.

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The Tribe has to resign C.C.

Unread postby jjgmyers » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:46 am

If it's gotta be Pronk or C.C., Pronk has to be the one to go. I love both players as an Indians fan but if we have to pick one or the other, it has to be C.C.

Besides the Damon Stringer incident, he has always kept his nose clean and it seems to me he loves playing in Cleveland. For the most part he's been very durable and never a word (knock on wood) of the dreaded sore elbow or shoulder stiffness, plus he's still only 27.

Pronk is strictly a DH and to me the money he is going to get will not be worth it for someone who plays 1B 5 times a year

C.C.'s averages for 6+ seasons rival any pitcher in the game over that time period: 195 IP a year, 155 k's, 3.9 ERA (only 2 seasons with an above 4 ERA: 4.137, 4.037) 14 W's and I'm sure those will only improve after this season

If he's asking for Zito money I know it will not happen but lets hope he will take a hometown discount in the 12-13 mil per range for a 5-6 year deal.

Grady and C.C. for life as Indians I hope
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Unread postby swerb » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:57 am

There is absolutely no way in hell CC takes a hometown discount and signs here for 12-13 million per.

He will take the Zito contract and use it as a baseline.

18 million a season for 7 seasons.

So when deciding whether or not you want to see the team resign The Big Man, count on them spending no less than that when forming your opinion.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:03 am

Swerb wrote:18 million a season for 7 seasons.

So when deciding whether or not you want to see the team resign The Big Man, count on them spending no less than that when forming your opinion.

Caveat: this is entirely My Opinion, based on no inside knowledge.

The Indians will not sign a pitcher to a contract of more than 5 years. In fact, it will take an extraordinary pitcher (and Sabathia applies: he is younger than 30 and proven durable) to get more than 3.

Again, my opinion only, but the only hope the Indians have of signing Sabathia is to a higher annual price for fewer years, like Jason Schmidt in Los Angeles.

I agree that Sabathia should be the priority, but I don't see it as being likely. However, I also don't believe he has to be traded. I understand the reluctance to "lose a player for nothing," but you can't look at 2008 like that. Look at it like this instead:

Option A) Trade Sabathia and any chance at a World Series for Several players
Option B) Trade the chance of several players for one year of Sabathia and a vastly-improved chance at playoff success

It will be an interesting decision, colored greatly by what happens in 2007. Because of this, I don't think it even makes sense to think about it until this season ends.
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Unread postby swerb » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:09 am

I would agree with every aspect of that take Buff.
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Unread postby AdamMiller » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:24 am

I would actually trade CC in the winter come what may, fact is Zito got $126M contract and he doesnt have nearly the stuff CC does. Shapiro would be wise to trade him and try to pull of a Colon type deal, he is pretty good at the vets for prospects type deals. Losing CC would hurt the '08 club but in the long term it would safeguard the future
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:40 am

AdamMiller wrote:Losing CC would hurt the '08 club but in the long term it would safeguard the future

Or it wouldn't.

Look, I'm not going to get into an argument of absolutes. I literally don't view any player as "untouchable." Anyone. Now, the haul I'd demand for Grady Sizemore would probably make your head explode, but yes, I can imagine a package I would take for Sizemore. I don't think it's worth discussing a deal like that.

So when I say I wouldn't trade Sabathia, the underlying sentiment is that if I could get a ridiculous haul, well, of COURSE I'd trade Sabathia. But I'll say this: I very much think the 2008 team with Sabathia will be a contender for the pennant. I also very much think that a team with the revenues of the Cleveland Indians can reasonably be expected to be a serious contender for the pennant in, for sake of argument, four out of every ten seasons. Could be six. Could be two. Wouldn't be impossible for it to be ten. But I view four as a pretty good estimate.

Will I trade one of those seasons for a package of players who might might might might MIGHT give me a different season? Man, I'd have to be really, really sure. Would I listen to offers? Hell yes, I'd listen. Would I be shy about pulling that trigger?

Hell yes, I'd be shy.
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Unread postby mattvan1 » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:41 am

Losing CC would hurt the '08 club but in the long term it would safeguard the future
Not to go all talking head rah-rah speak on you, but er, ah, isnt't the future now? I mean as in right freaking now 2007-2008?
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Unread postby AdamMiller » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:50 am

Yes and no, it isn't like the window of oppertunity for this team is closing. The nucleus of this team is still young the farm system is still strong. If you trade CC you still have a pretty good club though weaker, we have Miller and Lofgren waiting in the wings. If Shapiro can add 3 or 4 studs in a trade then you're just further replinishing the talent level in the organization
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CC and the Future

Unread postby ArtGold » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:56 am

Not to me.

I would absolutely trade Sabathia to the highest bidder this offseason. I expect that we would be able to do a trade for prospects and maybe a current player with DBacks, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees (yes, them too), Phillies and Giants.

With Pavano, Mussina and Giambi coming off their books after 2008, the Yankees could afford to sign both Santana and Sabathia. No way the Indians are going to be able to keep him, and I feel certain that it will take a minimum of $150 million for 8 years to keep him. Frankly, he may get more than that.

I want to contend forever, and to do so you need to do two things, keep trading your current players for great prospects (the other club paid the signing bonus money), and take significant risk in the draft and go for high ceiling players in the first round (like Bailey over Sowers a few years ago). I know you end up with a lot of misses like Dan Denham, but you keep doing this and you'll get some significant hits too. If you keep signing Delucci's, Byrd's, Hernandez's and Nixon's, you eventually turn into KC.

I sign Pronk to a contract extension, I would estimate $55-60 million for 5 years, and trade Sabathia.

Edit - BTW I think we have a good, but not great, farm system at this time.
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Unread postby paulcousineau » Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:31 pm

There is absolutely no way in hell CC takes a hometown discount and signs here for 12-13 million per.

He will take the Zito contract and use it as a baseline.

18 million a season for 7 seasons.


I don't know if that Zito contract is going to be out there after the manner in which Zito has performed thus far.

Remember when Mike Hampton and Chan Ho Park got HUGE deals, in terms of money and years, then completely blew up, scaring GM's away from handing out those types of contracts, until...well...Barry Zito?

Consider the Zito deal as the new Hampton deal. It was seen as ludicrous around the league when it was done and it looks worse in hindsight.

I agree with Buff that the Indians will NEVER go out further than 5 years on a pitcher and will have to offer more guaranteed money over fewer years to sign the Hefty Lefty. And that philosophy is certainly justifiable. Ask Texas if giving 5 years to Millwood has worked out this year (his 2nd of the contract, when he's spent 2 stints on the DL).

However, because of the club-friendly deals that the Indians have on the books (Sizemore, Peralta, Martinez, etc.) to fill big holes on the team and the fact that the farm is stocked with players who can contribute while being payed the ML minimum, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility to sign both.

Maybe I'm wearing rose-colored glasses, but signing both C.C. and Pronk seems financially feasible as long as the demands of the player don't become exorbitant enough to think that Zitoesque contracts are the BASELINE and that they realize that the Schmidt/Big Papi deals serve as the comparables.
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Unread postby Hoover » Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:34 pm

I hear some fans say "the Tribe can't afford to sign Sabathia." But the money is there. The Indians were the most profitable team in MLB two years ago, and cleared $24.9 million last year, according to Forbes magazine. The Tribe is in the middle of the pack in revenue. Clearly they can afford to keep CC.

Now I'm not in the camp that says Dolan is cheap. He spent significant money to sign players in the offseason. However he has never given out a huge contract like Sabathia will garner. The largest contract they've doled out isn't even in the neighborhood of what the Giants paid Zito, so Dolan clearly won't do that for CC.

The question is, does Dolan have the will to sign him, and is he open to spending the big bucks?
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Unread postby ArtGold » Wed Jun 06, 2007 12:46 pm

My thinking is that he won't, but I'm willing to be surprised. I didn't think he would give Westbrook the contract he did, so perhaps he will spend more than I believe likely.

But my vote is that he won't spend what is needed to retain CC.
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Unread postby Prosecutor » Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:39 pm

I think it will come down to a combination of how much money CC will want, what kind of prospects we can get for him this winter, and how quickly Miller and Lofgren progress this year.

If CC keeps up his current pace and ends up something like 21-5, forget it. We'll never be able to afford him, especially with all those huge Yankee contracts going off the books right when CC hits free agency. And if Miller and Lofgren look to be major league ready, and Lee and Sowers get straightened out, it makes CC more expendable. Finally, if we can get a Sizemore/Phillips/Lee type package for him, that would seal the deal. However, we won't get that kind of package for one year of CC's career. The only reason we got it for Colon was because Montreal thought they would have to divest themselves of all their players after the season.

But if we could find a team whose window is closing and would be willing to give up two top prospects for CC's 2008 season, it would be tough to turn it down. It would be also tough to trade CC knowing you might be throwing away the only chance you'll get at a World Championship this decade.

As for Travis, you definitely want to sign him, but if Garko continues to hit .330 (which he won't), at least we'd have somebody to step right in when he leaves. In fact, you could use the $55 million you save to help sign CC, if you want to go that route.
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Unread postby paulcousineau » Wed Jun 06, 2007 1:40 pm

The question is, does Dolan have the will to sign him, and is he open to spending the big bucks?


Completely agreed and the Westbrook negotiations were really the first look into the Dolans dealing with a FA that was desirable to the Indians since Thome.

If you haven't looked at this tremendous and exhaustive view of contractual obligations by the Indians going forward put together by Consigliere, it's worth a look.
http://www.swerbsblurbs.com/teamContractDetail.php?theme=indians&season=2007
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jun 06, 2007 4:47 pm

With the baseball economy as it is right now, Sabathia isn't going to get Zito money. He's going to get more. Whomever gets signed first in that off-season-CC or Santana, is going to break a record. Small market teams can't sign this type of guy without mortaging something in the future.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jun 06, 2007 5:00 pm

I would absolutely HATE to trade CC for prospects. Hate it.

It just is not the way to operate now that we are in contending mode. You don't dump premium talent for prospects when in contending mode, you do that in rebuilding mode. So all the talk of doing another Colon-type deal just is not the right way to look at it if you ask me.

IF...IF we are to trade CC, it sure as hell better be for at least TWO major league players who fill a need. And, they better be pretty good players. Like when the Yanks dumped Soriano, they got A-Rod. If I am giving up an impact player, I want a good impact-type player in return. So, if we deal CC, I want at least one proven impact player, another solid major leaguer, and THEN maybe a prospect or two. Nothing less.

If we ain't getting that, I ain't dealing. THat simple. Because, to me, dumping CC for prospects would send the worst possible message to this fanbase. Plus, we are about winning now (contending), and not about winning later (rebuilding). That's why you have to get players that help right away, and in an impactful way.

Also, let me add.....I think there is a seriously good chance he DOES resign with us. And, Hafner too. I have nothing to base this on other than a gut feeling, but I am starting to get the feeling we sign both. If we make the playoffs this year, the revenue boost will be huge in attendance and playoff revenues, especially if we go deep into the postseason.

But, even without the playoffs, I think the payroll is setup in a way where we can indeed afford to add both. Many anti-Dolan people and even the pro-Dolan or people on the fence have questioned how our payroll could be in the bottom five still and not as high as we think it should be......we'll, is there a method to this madness possibly? To sort of "save" that space on the budget sheet for the future contracts of Hafner and/or Sabathia?

Just sayin.

For whatever reason, I am not at all worried about losing either of them. Maybe it is because they are still another year from FA....maybe it is because I believe we'll step up to the plate....maybe it is because I am insane....but I think they are staying.
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Unread postby furls » Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:14 pm

I don't think C.C. is resignable in this market for the Indians, I am not sure that it is worth what it would cost us to pony up for him.

C.C. is going to demand 5 years 20 million per(I think that would be the hometown discount, as I think the Yankees will give more). The Zito contract is the starting point.

Pronk is going to need about 5 years 12 million, so if you want to keep them both, you are going to need to spend almost 50% of the Indians 2007 salary on two guys, one that does not play in the field and one that pitches every fifth day.

This is not to say that they are not worth the money, what it does imply is that the Indians payroll will have to balloon significantly to compensate for this, or that the Indians will be seriously limited in flexibility at the other positions on the field.

Personally, I would not sign Sabathia for the number of years he will demand (and get). Five years on a pitcher is a bit scary, and it is even a bit scarier on a guy with the "rigorous" off season regiment that Sabathia is apparently using (I am guessing it involves a fork and the Old Country Buffet). This does not imply that I am for dumping him for prospects either.

If the Indians are competing in 2008 then they should keep him and continue to make a run. It sucks that they will lose him in the offseason, but count it as being part of the cost of contending for a title. I would rather see the Indians make a run at a WS then surrender to the salary cap even if it costs them good prospects as the opportunity cost of capital.
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Unread postby swerb » Wed Jun 06, 2007 7:53 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:With the baseball economy as it is right now, Sabathia isn't going to get Zito money. He's going to get more. Whomever gets signed first in that off-season-CC or Santana, is going to break a record. Small market teams can't sign this type of guy without mortaging something in the future.

True dat.

Baseball is booming financially right now. Attendance is at record highs, and teams are making money hand over fist. And this is right in the midst of the biggest scandal in the sport (steroids) in some time.

CC has tried to be diplomatic in his comments to date about his pending free agency. But his comments scream "Im cashing in".

He says and does all the right things here. But hes a California native that wore a Yankees hat to a Cavs game last season. And this is his one chance to break the bank. As a 300 lb fireballer with a history of pulled muscle injuries, theres no way in hell hes gonna give us a hometown discount, or let us match the 20 mill on a 3 year deal instead of the 7-8 years others will offer.

8 years/150 mill

Buh bye CC
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Unread postby KChmura » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:43 pm

something to think about....

Sabathia reached 90 wins at the age of 26 while Roger Clemens didnt get 90 wins until he turned 27.
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Unread postby Hoover » Wed Jun 06, 2007 8:52 pm

Swerb wrote:8 years/150 mill


If he wins 20 this year and has a good year in 08, he'll get 8 years/200 mill.

It would be a shame if he left, since he's finally become an ace, #1 pitcher. They're so hard to find and develop. We might have one in the future in Carmona, maybe Adam Miller, but there's no guarantee. There's no two ways around it, it's gonna suck hard if CC leaves.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jun 06, 2007 9:06 pm

I'll believe it when I see it (in regard to the money he may get).

But I have seen this before.....teams spend ridiculous cash on pitchers, everyone thinks Bartolo Colon is heading for $17-18M per....then the market settles, and he ends up signing for $13-14M per.

I think when it is all said and done, CC signs for around $15-18M. I don't see CC, or any other pitcher for that matter, getting above $18M. I think Zito's deal may be the high water mark we'll see for at least another few years.
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Unread postby tribetalk » Wed Jun 06, 2007 10:35 pm

As a fan, I will not be satisfied until we resign CC Sabathia AND Travis Hafner. Go ahead and laugh folks; but I believe what Shapiro says.

He says he will do everything in his power to resign each of the guys; and sure it may got 50-60 million over a few years; but it's what it takes when you want to have a WINNER!
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Unread postby Get_Wedge_Out_NOW! » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:21 pm

i like both too


but im gonna rgue on the other side.....we are loaded with pitchign currently but hintgs can change fast.....so cc going woudl be bad but not devastating.


if we lose hafner who is our big power man then?


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I'll Assume We Sign Both

Unread postby ArtGold » Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:25 pm

Taking this out a little bit, assuming we would sign both CC and Hafner, we would have somewhere in the range of $37-40 million per year tied up in three players (add Westbrook). If this is the case, considering Grady, Victor et al, we would need to have about an $85-90 million payroll, at a minimum.

You think Dolan is prepared to do this?
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jun 07, 2007 12:28 am

Riddle me this....

We all thought Jake Westbrook was going to hit the FA market and go for 5 years and anywhere from $13-15M per. He would have been the top FA pitcher available in the offseason, and would have cashed in bigtime.

But, instead, he extends for 3/33.

I don't know the circumstances as to why Jake signed, but I feel it gives a glimmer of hope CC with extend next spring. If he hits FA, he is gone. But, I am banking on the Indians making a concerted effort this offseason and through ST to resign him.

It may not happen, but I think the chances are a lot better than many think. Two months ago I'd have said no way, no shot....but now I feel we have a decent chance.
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Unread postby pup » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:19 am

I think most of you are somwehat correct :P :-P :razz:

They will re-sign one of Pronk/CC.

It will not be the DH.

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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:43 am

That article is a well-reasoned exposition of which player would make the team better.

It has little to do with what this current front office is likely to do.
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Unread postby swerb » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:45 am

Steve Buffum wrote:That article is a well-reasoned exposition of which player would make the team better.

It has little to do with what this current front office is likely to do.

Ding, ding, ding!

What do we have for him Johnny?
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Unread postby jjgmyers » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:54 am

It has little to do with what this current front office is likely to do
.


They'll sign the white guy and let the black guy go, then say some sorry ass excuse about how C.C. demanded this and demanded that
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:02 am

Just throwing this out there....

Can anyone cite an example of a non-REBUILDING team letting a frontline pitcher go in FA? Just curious, as I couldn't think of any at the moment.

It always seems that contending teams know they HAVE to keep a frontline starter. I don't care how deep you are in pitching, or how many studs you have in the minors....if you are a contender you simply cannot absorb the loss of a frontline starter very easily. Yes, someone like Miller could always step in and step up, but to be CC is not expendable by any means. He HAS to be resigned. Others on the staff are expendable, but not CC.

I think this offseason we are going to see a strong push from the org to resign him. This org may have to take the risk and give him a landmark contract, something unseen from this franchise ever.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:34 am

Consigliere wrote:Just throwing this out there....

Can anyone cite an example of a non-REBUILDING team letting a frontline pitcher go in FA? Just curious, as I couldn't think of any at the moment.

Oakland (Zito)
Boston (Clemens, Martinez)
Seattle (Johnson)
St. Louis (Morris)
Atlanta (Glavine, Maddux)
Houston (Hampton)
Arizona (Schilling)

I mean, you want to argue about "frontline," okay, but it happens all the time.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:36 am

jjgmyers wrote:They'll sign the white guy and let the black guy go, then say some sorry ass excuse about how C.C. demanded this and demanded that

I wish I could wave that off dismissively with indignance, but I can't.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jun 07, 2007 9:40 am

Steve Buffum wrote:Oakland (Zito)
Boston (Clemens, Martinez)
Seattle (Johnson)
St. Louis (Morris)
Atlanta (Glavine, Maddux)
Houston (Hampton)
Arizona (Schilling)

I mean, you want to argue about "frontline," okay, but it happens all the time.


I was talking more leaving in FA, and not guys traded before hitting FA....which takes Johnson and Schilling off there....but I guess they count. And, some of those guys like Maddux, Glavine, Morris, etc are guys on the downside of their careers.

Maybe I was not clear....has a contending team recently let a young-in-their-prime frontline starter go in FA? The only example I can think of is Zito.
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Unread postby Prosecutor » Thu Jun 07, 2007 10:19 am

[quote="Consigliere]
Maybe I was not clear....has a contending team recently let a young-in-their-prime frontline starter go in FA? The only example I can think of is Zito.[/quote]

Zito is the valid comparison. Left-handed starter, late twenties, coming off a Cy Young award (CC might get one this year), playing for a mid-market team. Only CC is better than Zito and should command a bigger offer. Oakland couldn't afford Zito just like they couldn't afford Giambi after he won the MVP. And we can't afford CC.

The only advantage to CC signing after this season would be avoiding the risk of an injury in 2008 that would reduce his market value. But since he's never had a significant injury, my bet is he goes the Zito route and ends up in the National League. You know how much CC likes to hit. He probably thinks he could set the record for home runs in a season by a pitcher, well, the National League record anyway. My guess is that Babe Ruth has the AL record forever.

I'm sure CC likes Cleveland and would consider staying. But the chance to make more money and swing the bat every fifth day will be too tempting to pass up.
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Unread postby VultureHxC » Thu Jun 07, 2007 1:47 pm

am i the only one that does not see zito as a frontline starter? compare his first four seasons to his last three

2000 7-4 2.72 ERA 78 SO 45 BB .195 AVG .296 OBP .311 SLG
2001 17-8 3.49 ERA 205 SO 80 BB .230 AVG .309 OBP .345 SLG
2002 23-5 2.75 ERA 182 SO 78 BB .218 AVG .289 OBP .340 SLG
2003 14-12 3.30 ERA 146 SO 88 BB .219 AVG .295 OBP .324 SLG
2004 11-11 4.48 ERA 163 SO 81 BB .263 AVG .333 OBP .427 SLG
2005 14-13 3.86 ERA 174 SO 89 BB .221 AVG .304 OBP .361 SLG
2006 16-10 3.83 ERA 151 SO 99 BB .257 AVG .344 OBP .415 SLG

Those numbers don't look like a number one starter to me. His K/9 rate has been steadily declining for years, he hasn't thrown a complete came since 2003, his K:BB ratio has been declining for years, and he's basically only good when he has his curveball.

Meanwhile, CC has risen his K/9 rate since 2002, has 90 wins in 6 and a half seasons, many of which were on bad teams and/or with a bad bullpen, drastically reduced his BB and over the past year and a half has become more of a pitcher rather than a thrower, all this while playing in the toughest division in baseball for the past couple seasons (al west keeps getting worse and isn't exactly known for having a bunch of hitters)

I don't care if it does take up to $20 million to sign him. You sign him. People have to remember that Cliff Lee is only under our control through 2009 with a club option for $8 for 2010 (which probably won't get picked up if he keeps pitching like he has), Sowers has to prove he can pitch consistently in the big leagues, Byrd is probably gone after this season (I doubt they'll pick up his option), Carmona has to prove he can pitch well over an entire season, and we still don't know for sure if Miller or Lofgren can pitch on the major league level. Not to mention if any of these guys can be a number #1 like CC has evolved into. I love Hafner but you have a better chance at a championship of you have good pitching and having CC gives us a much better chance at winning the World Series than Hafner.
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Unread postby Prosecutor » Thu Jun 07, 2007 2:38 pm

I suppose I have to agree with Chris Sykes' conclusion (see the column linked in Pups' post) that CC is the guy we need to keep if we can't keep both. Like Chris says, if Pronk leaves we can move Victor to DH and install Shoppach as the everyday catcher. We lose big on offense but gain something defensively. And Victor can go back to catching when we play the National League to keep his bat in the lineup. Another benefit would be extending Victor's career by reducing the wear and tear of catching as he turns 30.

And don't forget that if Pronk is not re-signed that frees up $50 million or so to sign a bat in the outfield to make up that loss of offense. Of course, some of that money will be needed for CC's new contract, but we should be able to add a productive bat if Pronk leaves.
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Unread postby paulcousineau » Thu Jun 07, 2007 4:33 pm

Here's a piece from back in March on the possibility of the Indians keeping all 3.
http://www.swerbsblurbs.com/article_detail.php?id=1473

The Westbrook deal was done and I still feel strongly about the numbers thrown out in the piece about 3 months ago. The early success of the team only strenghtens the convictions.
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Unread postby pod2dawg » Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:38 pm

The Westbrook deal was done and I still feel strongly about the numbers thrown out in the piece about 3 months ago. The early success of the team only strenghtens the convictions.


DiaT, not to be the pessimist, but I remember tearing my house apart when we traded Colon, I've since patched and painted the walls. I saw the prudent signing of Westbrook as writing on the wall we would be trading CC in the off season if CC had a great year and Carmona & Miller rounded into shape. Westbrook was/is insurance with the younger pitchers in combo. I'll miss the Big C , but I really think he's going to break the Bank, AND he deserves it........and lastly, well I don't think we'll spend the Big Jack to hold Hafner either.....................GOOD NEWS..................Shapiro is smarter than I am and will get some real "studs" to go with what we got and we will be in the World Series in "08" too. For the record I love them Both and hope we do sign them both, but guys I have to deal in the real world every day and it just "ain't so." That being said I also predicted The Pistons in 7.

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Unread postby jfiling » Thu Jun 07, 2007 6:57 pm

Consigliere wrote:
Steve Buffum wrote:Oakland (Zito)
Boston (Clemens, Martinez)
Seattle (Johnson)
St. Louis (Morris)
Atlanta (Glavine, Maddux)
Houston (Hampton)
Arizona (Schilling)

I mean, you want to argue about "frontline," okay, but it happens all the time.


I was talking more leaving in FA, and not guys traded before hitting FA....which takes Johnson and Schilling off there....but I guess they count. And, some of those guys like Maddux, Glavine, Morris, etc are guys on the downside of their careers.

Maybe I was not clear....has a contending team recently let a young-in-their-prime frontline starter go in FA? The only example I can think of is Zito.


Clemens was 32, but won 4 Cy Youngs after being let go in free agency by the Red Sox in 1996.
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Unread postby pup » Thu Jun 07, 2007 7:08 pm

Clemens was 32, but won 4 Cy Youngs after being let go in free agency by the Red Sox in 1996.


That is quite a twilight if you ask me.

Remind me again what Dan Duquette is doing these days?

That article is a well-reasoned exposition of which player would make the team better,

It has little to do with what this current front office is likely to do.


Stupid me, I still think what the makes the team better is what the front office should be most likely to do.
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Thu Jun 07, 2007 7:16 pm

Pup wrote:Stupid me, I still think what the makes the team better is what the front office should be most likely to do.

Independent of money? You'll be buying the team, then?

"Should be" is an interesting question. "Is" is more interesting to me.
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Unread postby pup » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:10 pm

Independent of money? You'll be buying the team, then?



You are too intelligent for such a trite response Mr. Buffum.

"Should be" is an interesting question. "Is" is more interesting to me.


Unless Mr. Shapiro starts posting here at TCF, all posts are should be, in the opinions of the poster. He is the only option able to use "is".
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Unread postby Steve Buffum » Thu Jun 07, 2007 8:38 pm

Possibly, but one of the interesting things about reading Gary Reents writing about the Browns was that he would use patterns of action and quotes from officials to predict what would happen. I mean, isn't it trite to say we should sign 25 great players because that would be best for the team? Since that isn't going to happen, it seems of limited analytical value. Signing Moises Alou would have made the team better, but he said, "No." Barry Zito, for all his flaws, would be better than Jeremy Sowers, but I didn't think much of analysis that said we should sign him because of this. Why? Because I've watched the front office repeatedly balk at signing pitchers to deals of the length it would take to get that player.

If Sabathia would sign a 4-year, $80M (even $90M?) deal, being sold on the likelihood that he'd still be a hot commodity at its conclusion (being only 31 or so, I forget exactly), we have a chance. If he wants to break $100M or sign for more than 5 years, I think this Indians regime literally has zero chance. Absolutely none. And at that point, "should" is a totally academic question.

"Should" is a good place to start when comparing situations that are in many other ways equal. But once you hit a deal-breaking condition, every other factor becomes totally irrelevant. From historical precedence and press conference transcripts, I have inferred (and I could certainly be wrong, but I'm pretty confident) that contract length for a pitcher is a "line in the sand." If Sabathia's agent insists on crossing that line, it doesn't matter how good or young or charming or human Sabathia is: the Indians are, IMO, not going to go more than 5 years, and will be gritting their teeth at 5.

If the choice were "having Sabathia" vs. "not having Sabathia" and everything else was the same, well, shoot, that's one of the easiest decisions ever. I think you'd be hard-pressed to find an analyst that would claim that having Sabathia in a rotation weakens the team. But consider this, for example: if you traded Sabathia for Theoretical Package X mid-season 2008, then signed Johan Santana instead, would that make your team better? If so, isn't THAT would you "should" do? (I consider this unlikely.)

I agree that Sabathia is the more valuable player, and I would even venture to say that I'd pay him more than the current front office. (That was my experience with Manny, for example.) We certainly should re-sign Sabathia ... but not to an arbitrary contract.
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Unread postby pup » Fri Jun 08, 2007 9:30 am

Possibly, but one of the interesting things about reading Gary Reents writing about the Browns was that he would use patterns of action and quotes from officials to predict what would happen


Pattern of action and quotes from officials? OK, I think CC is a goner and I am 100% disapointed in that fact. I think it is one of the worst decisions this franchise has and will ever make. Hitters can walk, but a LH, SP who throws 99MPH and has been a lifelong member of the org is a different story. If they are unwilling to go more than 5 years, and CC requires 7 years, then your analysis is as academic as mine.

Of course, if you could only evaluate things by pattern of action or previous results, that would make the world of sports pretty boring. The chances you get to change pattern of action are what matter. The Browns are doing it with the selection of Joe Thomas, and taking a chance and trading up in a draft twice. The Cavs change was more of luck with the ping pong balls, but there is still the change in philosiphy of going to a defensive minded team that has lead them to a trip to the NBA Finals.

If the Indians continue with their pattern of action, then we might as well stop paying attention, because their pattern of action has not worked for almost 60 years :cry :cry:

To equate my posting to me saying go out and sign the 25 best players is ignorant, and surprising from you. The Sowers/Zito analogy is just plain stupid.

Here is the situation. The Indians SHOULD make a legitimate offer to the ace of their pitching staff. They SHOULD change their pattern of action, for this one guy. You are right, and they will not, but that does not mean they shouldn't or couldn't.

I am not disagreeing with you about what they have done in the past. I am just offering my opinion, which I am pretty sure is allowed, on what they should do in the future.
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Unread postby Prosecutor » Sat Jun 09, 2007 8:42 am

After watching the Indians try, and fail, to re-sign Manny and Thome, I don't see how they could possibly re-sign CC. If CC grew up in Akron like LeBron, then maybe, but he's a west coast guy. He also loves to hit, so I could see him ending up with the Dodgers, a big market team on the west coast in the National League.

Can you imagine what kind of numbers CC could put up if he got to face a pitcher every nine at-bats instead of a DH? Also, he's a better hitter than any pitcher he would face, so that would be another advantage. He could win 25 games some year in the NL.

No way CC signs a four-year deal with Cleveland if somebody is offering him seven. That would be just crazy to throw away that much guaranteed money. The best thing for the long term would be to trade him after this season for a blue chip prospect and a solid major leaguer. That would free up his $9 million salary next year to sign a starter or a BSD outfield bat in free agency. We end up getting two starters and a blue chip prospect for the last year of CC's contract.

The problem with that strategy is that the Indians should be contenders in '08, and trading CC just might cost them a World Championship. But if they use the $9 million to add a quality starter, and also upgrade left or right field in the swap, it might even out. The problem is that it's tough to go all the way without a true ace on the staff (see Cleveland Indians, 1995 and 1997), so unless Carmona keeps it up, we would be back to having a great offense and a bunch of fair-to-middling starters. Been there, done that.

I would put my best offer on the table as soon as the season is over, and if CC doesn't take it by Christmas, I'd get what I can for him. If Carmona keeps it up and goes 18-5 this year, and if Miller tears it up in Buffalo and looks good up here in September, I'm even more motivated to make a deal.

Edit: Does anybody know what kind of draft pick we would get as compensation if a player like CC left after the '08 season?
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Jun 09, 2007 9:06 am

I ain't saying the Indians will sign CC....just that I believe they can sign him. I'm willing to stick it out with him the next two years and go into the offseason and try to keep him. To me, CC here in 2008 and the two first round picks we get for losing him in FA would be more valuable than trading him and potentially losing a chance to contend and win in 2008 and getting more prospects.
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Unread postby ArtGold » Sat Jun 09, 2007 11:08 am

If I believed we would spend whatever is necessary to sign him I would agree with keeping him and taking our chances after the 2008 season.

But I don't, not even close. I think losing him for draft picks, especially with what I believe is the Indians lack of inclination to draft aggressively, would be a disaster to the franchise.

This is why I strongly want to deal him this offseason for a boatload of prospects, both close to major league ready and high ceiling low level players.
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