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Jimenez to the birds

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Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby 1Perry » Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:18 pm

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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby motherscratcher » Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:52 pm

Unconfirmed rumors that it's 4/$48

So, yeah, have fun with that O's.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby 1Perry » Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:54 pm

If so, all I can add is good for Jimenez.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Feb 17, 2014 8:58 pm

It's probably not a bad deal for Jimenez and the Orioles, but I'm happy that it's not us. Better division and better hitter's park, two glaring negatives I see for the Orioles. Again, Jimenez wasn't great for 75% of the season this past year and then padded his stats against dregs in September.

My bigger concern is the 6/100 Homer Bailey's rumored to be getting. If he gets that, we can forget about re-signing Masterson. May be a long shot anyway, but I really don't see the Indians going 6 or 100 for Masterson.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:33 pm

Homer just killed any deal we'd get for Masterson. Tho they could qualify him and argue that the Ubaldo 3/36 is what you get when you make us "qualify" you. And so...sign now for 3+/47(18) or enter the wrath of uncertainty. He'll likely balk, as he should.

I predict we make a serious run on Santana now.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:40 pm

bookelly wrote:I predict we make a serious run on Santana now.


I hope not.

From 2011-13

Player A: 95 starts, 3.85 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 6.88 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 4.6 WAR
Player B: 50 starts, 4.12 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 7.30 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 3.0 WAR

Player A 2011-13 salary: 32.2M
Player B 2011-13 salary: ~1M

Any guess as to who Player B is?

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... =3200,2895
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:26 pm

Happy to see Ubaldo moving on.

Prior to his hot stretch at the end of of last year, the Tribe were never going to go anywhere near re-signing him and I genuinely believe they still were never really interested.

So, let's just be thankful that the hot stretch has got the Tribe a supplemental 1st round pick.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Tue Feb 18, 2014 12:12 am

Mark Reynolds is really kicking himself now...evidently its okay to suck for 75% of a season as long as the 25% you dont suck is at the end and not at the beginning.......... :bag:
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:46 am

skatingtripods wrote:
My bigger concern is the 6/100 Homer Bailey's rumored to be getting.


That is an incredulous number. Homer Frinkin' Bailey? Can the Reds make 100 million in 6 years?
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby British_Pharaoh » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:19 am

That division will kill Ubaldo
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby noles1 » Tue Feb 18, 2014 2:50 pm

Ubaldo was one more bad week in July from having the Indians decide to move him to the bullpen. This is not really a loss at all in my opinion.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:43 pm

(Former) MLB lefty Tim Byrdak on Twitter:

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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby ChoccoIndians » Tue Feb 18, 2014 5:57 pm

Sad to see him go, but I think the years and figures the O's offered him I am glad he has moved on.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:00 pm

Ive now gotten into an arguement in my ESPN Fantasy Dynasty League with some guy who says the Ubaldo deal is a steal and is better than Edwin Jacksons deal
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby 1Perry » Tue Feb 18, 2014 11:13 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Ive now gotten into an arguement in my ESPN Fantasy Dynasty League with some guy who says the Ubaldo deal is a steal and is better than Edwin Jacksons deal



We haven't had a good fun argument like that around here in a good while.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Feb 19, 2014 2:41 pm

6/105 (7/130 w/ option) the official number for Bailey.

Let the Masterson farewell tour begin.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby 1Perry » Wed Feb 19, 2014 6:53 pm

skatingtripods wrote:6/105 (7/130 w/ option) the official number for Bailey.

Let the Masterson farewell tour begin.


I have to admit.....It's things like this that make me enjoy going to minor league games more and more.

I understand it's not just about wins but nobody is worth a million plus a win.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Feb 19, 2014 7:17 pm

1Perry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:6/105 (7/130 w/ option) the official number for Bailey.

Let the Masterson farewell tour begin.


I have to admit.....It's things like this that make me enjoy going to minor league games more and more.

I understand it's not just about wins but nobody is worth a million plus a win.


Well...they are, because the market says they are. Sometimes it's hard to walk the line as a fan knowing that first and foremost it's a business.

I can't get into minor league games that much. They're more laid back, which is cool, but the product is a lot less and the games have very little significance to me. I go to see individual performances. I don't care if the Aeros or Clippers lose by 15.

If you break down the Bailey deal by $/WAR, he's probably worth that. He's trending upwards in his prime, but for the old school thinkers out there, they simply see a guy whose career record is essentially .500 and his 4.25 ERA and 4.00 FIP are pretty much league average when you consider the ERA is higher and the FIP is lower. He's also only made two seasons of 30+ MLB starts and he's getting $17.5M per. So, yeah, depending on how you evaluate players and evaluate MLB financials, it can be pretty disenfranchising.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby bookelly » Wed Feb 19, 2014 7:21 pm

I'm sorry, but Bailey contract is just about the stupidest thing I've ever seen. That's the kind of albatross deal that'll set a franchise back a decade. Dumb move.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby 1Perry » Wed Feb 19, 2014 8:38 pm

bookelly wrote:I'm sorry, but Bailey contract is just about the stupidest thing I've ever seen. That's the kind of albatross deal that'll set a franchise back a decade. Dumb move.


Unless you are a team like the Yankee's.

Lot's of talk about a new stadium and Indy pro team starting up just a few miles from me.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby bac5665 » Wed Feb 19, 2014 11:00 pm

skatingtripods wrote:If you break down the Bailey deal by $/WAR, he's probably worth that. He's trending upwards in his prime, but for the old school thinkers out there, they simply see a guy whose career record is essentially .500 and his 4.25 ERA and 4.00 FIP are pretty much league average when you consider the ERA is higher and the FIP is lower. He's also only made two seasons of 30+ MLB starts and he's getting $17.5M per. So, yeah, depending on how you evaluate players and evaluate MLB financials, it can be pretty disenfranchising.


The fact is that pitching is damn expensive, but it's because it's hard to get. We need to be willing to spend that much on pitchers, at least, or we're only going to compete for 2 or 3 years every decade. Tops.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Feb 20, 2014 5:20 am

Yes but pitchers are also fragile. 6 years is just foolish. Even CC has regressed and he's about as durable as they come (maybe he should eat again).
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Feb 20, 2014 10:38 am

bac5665 wrote:The fact is that pitching is damn expensive, but it's because it's hard to get. We need to be willing to spend that much on pitchers, at least, or we're only going to compete for 2 or 3 years every decade. Tops.


I don't think the problem for the Indians is the AAV. I think the problem is the contract length. Six and seven-year contracts for pitchers are serious gambles and the Indians can't afford to be tied to a player for that long at a substantial percentage of their payroll.

I won't say that the Indians have mastered the art of cheap wins via the use of platoons, because they've had their share of failures, but you can put together an above-replacement level position player with a platoon at a very good cost. Take the Murphy-Raburn platoon in RF for this season. They'll be paying $8.25M for a player that should be worth close to 3 WAR, if not more. You can't exactly platoon a starting pitcher, so they have to try and find a market inefficiency elsewhere.

That's why they're forced into taking gambles on guys like Shaun Marcum and Aaron Harang. That's why they took the gamble that paid off on Scott Kazmir. That's why they never got rid of Ubaldo Jimenez when we all wanted him gone and parts of the front office probably did too. That's why they have to hope for league-average production from guys like Josh Tomlin, Zach McAllister, etc.

What a lot of people fail to realize is that #4 and #5 starters all over the league are below league average. Without a true ace, if the Indians can have five starters at league average or better, they can compete. Last season is a prime example. By fWAR: Masterson 3.4, Jimenez 3.2, Kluber 2.6, Kazmir 2.5, McAllister/Salazar/Bauer/Carrasco/Myers 1.9 (subtract Myers's three starts and it's 2.4).

Fangraphs: An average full-time position player is worth +2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than +1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around +2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

Code: Select all
Scrub   0-1 WAR
Role Player   1-2 WAR
Solid Starter   2-3 WAR
Good Player   3-4 WAR
All-Star   4-5 WAR
Superstar   5-6 WAR
MVP   6+ WAR


So that's what you aim for. A couple starters above 3 fWAR and the rest at or above 2 fWAR. Since Fangraphs's pitching WAR calculations use FIP and B-Ref's don't, my guess is that the Indians use some variation of Fangraphs's formula with their own spin, possibly RA9-WAR or something to that effect.

We might as well get used to the Indians trying to do it this way until somebody gets burned with a long-term deal and the market regulates itself, if that even happens. The framework the Indians are trying to construct is to have an above average offense (which they did), an above average bullpen (which they didn't in the first half), and an average or better starting rotation. They'll take their chances with that, getting an edge wherever and whenever possible.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby Govbarney » Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:44 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I don't think the problem for the Indians is the AAV. I think the problem is the contract length. Six and seven-year contracts for pitchers are serious gambles and the Indians can't afford to be tied to a player for that long at a substantial percentage of their payroll.

I won't say that the Indians have mastered the art of cheap wins via the use of platoons, because they've had their share of failures, but you can put together an above-replacement level position player with a platoon at a very good cost. Take the Murphy-Raburn platoon in RF for this season. They'll be paying $8.25M for a player that should be worth close to 3 WAR, if not more. You can't exactly platoon a starting pitcher, so they have to try and find a market inefficiency elsewhere.

That's why they're forced into taking gambles on guys like Shaun Marcum and Aaron Harang. That's why they took the gamble that paid off on Scott Kazmir. That's why they never got rid of Ubaldo Jimenez when we all wanted him gone and parts of the front office probably did too. That's why they have to hope for league-average production from guys like Josh Tomlin, Zach McAllister, etc.

What a lot of people fail to realize is that #4 and #5 starters all over the league are below league average. Without a true ace, if the Indians can have five starters at league average or better, they can compete. Last season is a prime example. By fWAR: Masterson 3.4, Jimenez 3.2, Kluber 2.6, Kazmir 2.5, McAllister/Salazar/Bauer/Carrasco/Myers 1.9 (subtract Myers's three starts and it's 2.4).

Fangraphs: An average full-time position player is worth +2 WAR, while average bench players contribute much less (typically less than +1 WAR). Average starting pitchers also are worth around +2 WAR, while relief pitchers are considered superb if they crack +1 WAR.

Code: Select all
Scrub   0-1 WAR
Role Player   1-2 WAR
Solid Starter   2-3 WAR
Good Player   3-4 WAR
All-Star   4-5 WAR
Superstar   5-6 WAR
MVP   6+ WAR


So that's what you aim for. A couple starters above 3 fWAR and the rest at or above 2 fWAR. Since Fangraphs's pitching WAR calculations use FIP and B-Ref's don't, my guess is that the Indians use some variation of Fangraphs's formula with their own spin, possibly RA9-WAR or something to that effect.

We might as well get used to the Indians trying to do it this way until somebody gets burned with a long-term deal and the market regulates itself, if that even happens. The framework the Indians are trying to construct is to have an above average offense (which they did), an above average bullpen (which they didn't in the first half), and an average or better starting rotation. They'll take their chances with that, getting an edge wherever and whenever possible.


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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:26 pm

Early days but Ubaldo with the birds:

0 - 3
WHIP > 2.0
ERA > 7.0
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Apr 14, 2014 10:34 am

Velocity down. Mechanics out of whack. Hitter's park. I thought there was a chance that this deal may wind up being at least serviceable for Baltimore, but that already looks grim.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:13 am

Back to being the worst pitcher in all of baseball.
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Re: Jimenez to the birds

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Mon Apr 14, 2014 11:47 am

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