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Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

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Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:12 am

Back when Ubaldo was a mechanical mess, I posted an article by Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball and The Hardball Times detailing what happened to his mechanics. Building off Jeff Passan's Jimenez column (linked in article), Boddy took a more scientific look at Jimenez and what has changed:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ic-season/
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:42 am

This guy's analysis is fantastic. The side-by-side videos really break down what changes he's made and what smaller ones need to be made.

Do we invest, however, in that project to the tune of 3-4 years at $12-14M per? Big bet.
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:01 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:Do we invest, however, in that project to the tune of 3-4 years at $12-14M per? Big bet.


I think if they can retain one of Kazmir or Ubaldo they're in good shape.

And how unbelievably stunning is it that we've gone from not wanting any part of Ubaldo next season to not likely being able to afford him?

I do put a lot of stock into the competition portion of Boddy's article though. So many reasons to have a caveat emptor attitude with Jiminez going forward and I think we'll see how big an influence he believes Callaway to be.

Not that if Ubaldo leaves it's because Callaway didn't do as much as he's credited for doing, because we know what kind of egos ballplayers have too. But it will be interesting.
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:26 pm

There are a lot of dynamics in play with Ubaldo. For one thing, the Indians could have given up on him time and time again and they didn't. Ubaldo seems like he's an emotional guy and I think he has a lot of love and respect for the Indians for not giving up on him.

For another, does Jimenez put his relationship with Callaway in front of money? Callaway fixed him and potentially saved his career. Jimenez would have gotten work somewhere, but he was that bad that he'd have been a mid-season DFA contender with his new team if he didn't get it fixed. If Jimenez leaves Callaway, there's no guarantee that he has success. He knows what was wrong now and his new pitching coach would be able to look at things to compare/contrast when he falters, but I would think Jimenez holds Callaway in high regard, and rightfully so.

Indians have a couple options. They can offer 3 years under the free agent market price and hope Jimenez signs based on loyalty. They can try to talk Jimenez into accepting the mutual option, which won't happen. They can extend a qualifying offer, which I believe is 14M for next season, and if he declines, they'll get compensation.

I don't know what I'd do. The Indians don't have any starters beating down the door to come up. Odds are, over a 3-yr deal, Jimenez is a good #3, an average or below #2, depending on how much of this sticks. Between expiring contracts and raises, the Indians' 2014 payroll is around 80M without Jimenez or any FAs. I don't know if 90+ is feasible.

I'm torn. I want to say extend the qualifying offer and if he gets a multi-year deal, let him go. But, when you look at the FA market, depending what Ubaldo you get, he's the most attractive option out there and the Indians will have to do something with starting pitchers this winter.

Very hard decision. The Indians won't go longer than three years with a SP, that's their MO. The last one was Westbrook and that blew up. The team likely wants to talk extensions with Masterson, Kipnis, and possibly Brantley this winter as well. Jimenez just may not fit.
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:34 pm

No offense, but if life and baseball and pretty much 99% of all free agent decisions have taught me anything, it's that emotion, loyalty and pitching coaches place a distant 2nd, 3rd and 4th to #1: money.

He never got what he wanted in terms of cash from his Colorado/Cleveland days and he's going to maximize his haul after this season. If the Indians want him, that one year tender at $14million is about the best option. Hell, I'd say it's the only option if he finishes the season strong and if they advance in the playoffs in part because he continues it there.

I'd honestly feel more confident giving Kazmir 3 years and $21-$24mm

skatingtripods wrote:There are a lot of dynamics in play with Ubaldo. For one thing, the Indians could have given up on him time and time again and they didn't. Ubaldo seems like he's an emotional guy and I think he has a lot of love and respect for the Indians for not giving up on him.

For another, does Jimenez put his relationship with Callaway in front of money? Callaway fixed him and potentially saved his career. Jimenez would have gotten work somewhere, but he was that bad that he'd have been a mid-season DFA contender with his new team if he didn't get it fixed. If Jimenez leaves Callaway, there's no guarantee that he has success. He knows what was wrong now and his new pitching coach would be able to look at things to compare/contrast when he falters, but I would think Jimenez holds Callaway in high regard, and rightfully so.

Indians have a couple options. They can offer 3 years under the free agent market price and hope Jimenez signs based on loyalty. They can try to talk Jimenez into accepting the mutual option, which won't happen. They can extend a qualifying offer, which I believe is 14M for next season, and if he declines, they'll get compensation.

I don't know what I'd do. The Indians don't have any starters beating down the door to come up. Odds are, over a 3-yr deal, Jimenez is a good #3, an average or below #2, depending on how much of this sticks. Between expiring contracts and raises, the Indians' 2014 payroll is around 80M without Jimenez or any FAs. I don't know if 90+ is feasible.

I'm torn. I want to say extend the qualifying offer and if he gets a multi-year deal, let him go. But, when you look at the FA market, depending what Ubaldo you get, he's the most attractive option out there and the Indians will have to do something with starting pitchers this winter.

Very hard decision. The Indians won't go longer than three years with a SP, that's their MO. The last one was Westbrook and that blew up. The team likely wants to talk extensions with Masterson, Kipnis, and possibly Brantley this winter as well. Jimenez just may not fit.
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:14 pm

peeker643 wrote:No offense, but if life and baseball and pretty much 99% of all free agent decisions have taught me anything, it's that emotion, loyalty and pitching coaches place a distant 2nd, 3rd and 4th to #1: money.

He never got what he wanted in terms of cash from his Colorado/Cleveland days and he's going to maximize his haul after this season. If the Indians want him, that one year tender at $14million is about the best option. Hell, I'd say it's the only option if he finishes the season strong and if they advance in the playoffs in part because he continues it there.

I'd honestly feel more confident giving Kazmir 3 years and $21-$24mm


How the Tribe turned a train-wreck and plate-glass pitcher into guys ready to command 3-4 year multi-million dollar deals is certainly astonishing.

Both have big upside. Both have really big downside potential as well. I honestly don't know which one, if either, we end up trying to bring back. At the very least, we almost have to give UJ a qualifying offer. This, to a certain degree, hurts him a bit on the market because a lot of teams don't like giving up that pick. Kazmir is a feel-good story and a testament to his hard work to get back to the bigs, but his injury history makes him really, really scary over the course of a 3-year deal.

Perfect world they both give home-town discounts to the team that helped them reclaim their careers, but you're right, Brian, their agents aren't paid to be charitable...
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Re: Kyle Boddy on Ubaldo Jimenez

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:11 pm

peeker643 wrote:No offense, but if life and baseball and pretty much 99% of all free agent decisions have taught me anything, it's that emotion, loyalty and pitching coaches place a distant 2nd, 3rd and 4th to #1: money.

He never got what he wanted in terms of cash from his Colorado/Cleveland days and he's going to maximize his haul after this season. If the Indians want him, that one year tender at $14million is about the best option. Hell, I'd say it's the only option if he finishes the season strong and if they advance in the playoffs in part because he continues it there.

I'd honestly feel more confident giving Kazmir 3 years and $21-$24mm


I don't disagree. But, I do think Ubaldo's an emotional guy and that may play a role. If a team comes knocking with 3/45 and the Indians have 3/42 on the table, I don't think it's a given that Jimenez walks away. That's a close example, but even if the Indians come 4/48 and another team goes 4/56, I think the Indians are a serious consideration for Jimenez, though he ultimately takes the money.

I don't think he stays because the FA SP market is so incredibly bad that Jimenez has put himself at the forefront of it and could be seeing a four-year deal approaching and potentially surpassing 55M. It's ludicrous, but somebody might pay it.

We can debate the merits of Kazmir v. Jimenez all day long. If somebody else offers Kazmir a three-year deal, he's gone. I can't see the Indians going above one + option or two with insurance.

The resurgence of both has been incredible. Both I don't think the Indians keep either one of them and scramble to find rotation help this winter.
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