Text Size

Cleveland Indians & MLB

Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Talk Tribe, talk baseball in this forum.

Moderators: peeker643, swerb, pup, paulcousineau

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:31 pm

OldDawg wrote:I have always wondered why it is that when a set-up guy has a quick, effective and dominant 8th inning he isn't just left in for the 9th anyways. He's loose. He's in game mode. He doesn't have to break into the game. He's hot and in his zone. Just leave him in to start the 9th and get him out if you smell trouble.

To me, ALWAYS going to the closer is the "managing by the book" mentality that is overdone. That mentality also tells managers to yank a red-hot RHP late in a game against a lefty batter no matter what. What about managing by how things are playing out right in front of you. Go with the hot hand.

But I'm not a baseball manager. Just a guy at a keyboard.



Baseball worked that way for a century until the late 80's.

Suiter, Gossage, Bourbon, Fingers.... all those guys did that. If they are still once thru the lineup it'd be preferable to putting a gopher ball servin' corpse out there cause you're a brain dead manager keeping a player in "his role".
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:33 pm

Francona's a player-friendly manager. He'll ruffle feathers behind the scenes, but he won't do it publicly or in a game. He's not going to yank Perez out of that Chicago game and he's not taking Perez out in a 6-3 game last night. For better or worse, that's who Francona is, and you can't hate on it now if you've respected him for it all year. And believe me, it's a big part of why we're here. His ability to get the bench guys steady work, and Raburn and Gomes spent a large portion of the season in the top three in position player WAR, is because he understands the importance of keeping guys in the lineup and keeping them happy. He hasn't abandoned anybody, sans Mark Reynolds, and Reynolds is now gone because he started to become a problem when he wasn't playing.

It takes a certain personality to close. I truly believe that and it's one of the ways I deviate from saber ideology. Vinnie Pestano said he didn't feel comfortable when he filled in for Perez last season. Joe Smith hasn't looked the part the times that he has filled in. He looked very hittable last night.

There's a reason a lot of closers are dicks and most setup guys just go about their business. It takes a strong personality type. If Perez is wavering from who he is, then he's of no use to anybody. I'm still wondering why Francona made Perez's comment public, since really all it does is make Perez look weak, but it's out there now.

My play would be Shaw in the closer's role, but I wouldn't like it very much. Up until recently, his platoon splits against LHB were horrid again this season, much like his career. But, he's the swing-and-miss guy in the pen right now and I want a closer that doesn't have to pitch to contact. I'm too worried about Allen's command, though Shaw's been used a ton this month himself.

We'll see how Terry plays it, though I wouldn't be shocked to see him say that the game will dictate what he does and not set a designated closer.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:38 pm

Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%

I got no problem going with the hot hand.
Last edited by FUDU on Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:38 pm

FUDU wrote:Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%



Nope. LaRussa & Eck were the first true closer arrangement.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:39 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Francona's a player-friendly manager. He'll ruffle feathers behind the scenes, but he won't do it publicly or in a game. He's not going to yank Perez out of that Chicago game and he's not taking Perez out in a 6-3 game last night. For better or worse, that's who Francona is, and you can't hate on it now if you've respected him for it all year. And believe me, it's a big part of why we're here. His ability to get the bench guys steady work, and Raburn and Gomes spent a large portion of the season in the top three in position player WAR, is because he understands the importance of keeping guys in the lineup and keeping them happy. He hasn't abandoned anybody, sans Mark Reynolds, and Reynolds is now gone because he started to become a problem when he wasn't playing.

It takes a certain personality to close. I truly believe that and it's one of the ways I deviate from saber ideology. Vinnie Pestano said he didn't feel comfortable when he filled in for Perez last season. Joe Smith hasn't looked the part the times that he has filled in. He looked very hittable last night.

There's a reason a lot of closers are dicks and most setup guys just go about their business. It takes a strong personality type. If Perez is wavering from who he is, then he's of no use to anybody. I'm still wondering why Francona made Perez's comment public, since really all it does is make Perez look weak, but it's out there now.

My play would be Shaw in the closer's role, but I wouldn't like it very much. Up until recently, his platoon splits against LHB were horrid again this season, much like his career. But, he's the swing-and-miss guy in the pen right now and I want a closer that doesn't have to pitch to contact. I'm too worried about Allen's command, though Shaw's been used a ton this month himself.

We'll see how Terry plays it, though I wouldn't be shocked to see him say that the game will dictate what he does and not set a designated closer.



Well remind me how much Swish and the boys love him when we're bounced in the 9th.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:40 pm

jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%



Nope. LaRussa & Eck were the first true closer arrangement.


Eh, I think you're picking some nits there, but I'm OK with it. So what? The numbers still hold true.
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby pup » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:47 pm

I don't understand why we just don't let starters throw 230 pitchers and screw closers all together. :pb:
Home Run Leaders as RHB 5/7/13

Mark Reynolds (10)
User avatar
pup
Closet Shapiro Fan
 
Posts: 12020
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 9:15 pm
Location: Eastlake, Ohio
Favorite Player: Vince Shubrownicek
Least Favorite Player: Any other coach

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:51 pm

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:51 pm

pup wrote:I don't understand why we just don't let starters throw 230 pitchers and screw closers all together. :pb:



Stats will likely show the pitch count at which any given starter tends to lose effectiveness, Mister Feller.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:55 pm

FUDU wrote:
jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%



Nope. LaRussa & Eck were the first true closer arrangement.


Eh, I think you're picking some nits there, but I'm OK with it. So what? The numbers still hold true.



Eh, I dont think you know mlb history....
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 12:59 pm

jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22680
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:04 pm

peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.



meh, you and you ilk have long been discredited.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:14 pm

jb wrote:
peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.



meh, you and you ilk have long been discredited.


True. Every night when all these teams go with your closer by committee approach I lose more and more credibility while yours soars.
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22680
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby 1Perry » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:19 pm

peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.


I absolutely agree with you that people do better when they have a defined role. There is less stress when someone knows what they will be called on to do beforehand.

That is why I had hoped that the press release today would have noted that Perez had an injury and who would be taking over for him.

Oh well, hopefully Francona still has a set plan beforehand and he informs the players of that plan.
User avatar
1Perry
The Shapiro of Posters
 
Posts: 1855
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:56 pm

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:20 pm

I'm definitely a saber guy, as everybody knows, and even I believe in roles. So do managers of sabermetrically-inclined organizations. So do guys managers who believe in sabermetrics themselves (Melvin and Maddon come to mind).

Look at how long of a leash closers have before they hang themselves. If that doesn't make it clear enough how much organizations, managers, and players believe in roles, then I don't know what does.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:51 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I'm definitely a saber guy, as everybody knows, and even I believe in roles. So do managers of sabermetrically-inclined organizations. So do guys managers who believe in sabermetrics themselves (Melvin and Maddon come to mind).

Look at how long of a leash closers have before they hang themselves. If that doesn't make it clear enough how much organizations, managers, and players believe in roles, then I don't know what does.



This is all a false dichotemy.

No one is talking about cherry picking a guy to close and rotating on a game by game basis.

But there is nothing at all wrong in promoting and demoting any player; be he starter, position player, set up man or closer.

Pick a new guy as closer, demote Perez, and those are your new roles. Just because "this year" and in the past Perez has been the closer in his role by no means means he has to be gifted that role post season when he's clearly and admittedly lost it because players are 'comfortable in their roles".

Or I assume you guys have all been doing the same job at work for the past 20 years? ;-)
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:54 pm

peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.



meh, you and you ilk have long been discredited.


True. Every night when all these teams go with your closer by committee approach I lose more and more credibility while yours soars.



I never wrote or advocated "closer by committeee". You inferred that and got a bug up yer butt.

What I wrote is:

a) the quality of the pitcher you need as an effective closer is overrated;
b) when your closer is proven to be ineffective, make a change;
c) just because there have been established roles in the past doesn't mean you don't ever change roles.

It's time to sit Perez and get a new guy to close.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:55 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I'm definitely a saber guy, as everybody knows, and even I believe in roles. So do managers of sabermetrically-inclined organizations. So do guys managers who believe in sabermetrics themselves (Melvin and Maddon come to mind).

Look at how long of a leash closers have before they hang themselves. If that doesn't make it clear enough how much organizations, managers, and players believe in roles, then I don't know what does.



Right.

And that leash is too long. Wayyyy too long.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby OldDawg » Fri Sep 27, 2013 1:59 pm

You always hear the phrase "a closer's mentality." I get that. And I've seen that. Those last three outs can get to you. And they say those who aren't ready for that role will fold under the heat. And to a degree, I get that too. However, I wonder about the sports psychology aspect of it. I have always wondered how much this "closer's mentality" thing isn't somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. That "closer's mentality" concept is so hyped nowadays, that pitchers who dare step into that situation are pre-destined to fail because they've been told that for so long. I am positive there is something to the "closer's mentality." Positive. However, I do think the hype about it has magnified it to be even more than it really is.

Again... a guy at a keyboard.
"The nose of the bulldog has been slanted backwards so that he can breathe without letting go." -- Winston Churchill
User avatar
OldDawg
 
Posts: 3882
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:05 pm
Favorite Player: Mark Price
Least Favorite Player: LePunk Jims

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:01 pm

jb wrote:This is all a false dichotemy.

No one is talking about cherry picking a guy to close and rotating on a game by game basis.

But there is nothing at all wrong in promoting and demoting any player; be he starter, position player, set up man or closer.

Pick a new guy as closer, demote Perez, and those are your new roles. Just because "this year" and in the past Perez has been the closer in his role by no means means he has to be gifted that role post season when he's clearly and admittedly lost it because players are 'comfortable in their roles".

Or I assume you guys have all been doing the same job at work for the past 20 years? ;-)


Since you're suddenly an Indians expert, who's your pick to close?
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:10 pm

jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:
jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%



Nope. LaRussa & Eck were the first true closer arrangement.


Eh, I think you're picking some nits there, but I'm OK with it. So what? The numbers still hold true.



Eh, I dont think you know mlb history....


When it comes to the exact moment a "closer" was born, my memory escapes me or I'm just that much younger than you. But in terms of the winning% it's more constant than the North Star.
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:30 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:This is all a false dichotemy.

No one is talking about cherry picking a guy to close and rotating on a game by game basis.

But there is nothing at all wrong in promoting and demoting any player; be he starter, position player, set up man or closer.

Pick a new guy as closer, demote Perez, and those are your new roles. Just because "this year" and in the past Perez has been the closer in his role by no means means he has to be gifted that role post season when he's clearly and admittedly lost it because players are 'comfortable in their roles".

Or I assume you guys have all been doing the same job at work for the past 20 years? ;-)


Since you're suddenly an Indians expert, who's your pick to close?



hahaha....

That, my man, is where I draw the line. I know on the interwebs people like to play the lame "you think you should be the ______" card anytime you don't knob gobble, but in this area there's NFW I know more about the players than Tito and Mick.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:31 pm

FUDU wrote:
jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:
jb wrote:
FUDU wrote:Since the 1950s winning% entering the 9th has been stuck on 95%. Closers and saves as we know them were born in the late 60s IIRC?

Leading by 3 it's at 97%
Leading by 2 it's at 93.5%
Leading by 1 it's at 85%



Nope. LaRussa & Eck were the first true closer arrangement.


Eh, I think you're picking some nits there, but I'm OK with it. So what? The numbers still hold true.



Eh, I dont think you know mlb history....


When it comes to the exact moment a "closer" was born, my memory escapes me or I'm just that much younger than you. But in terms of the winning% it's more constant than the North Star.



FTW.

Regression to mean uber alles.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:36 pm

OldDawg wrote:You always hear the phrase "a closer's mentality." I get that. And I've seen that. Those last three outs can get to you. And they say those who aren't ready for that role will fold under the heat. And to a degree, I get that too. However, I wonder about the sports psychology aspect of it. I have always wondered how much this "closer's mentality" thing isn't somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy. That "closer's mentality" concept is so hyped nowadays, that pitchers who dare step into that situation are pre-destined to fail because they've been told that for so long. I am positive there is something to the "closer's mentality." Positive. However, I do think the hype about it has magnified it to be even more than it really is.

Again... a guy at a keyboard.


If you can't quantify it it doesn't exist.

If a guy lacks "a closer's mentality" it will show up in his stats.

If he has "a closer's mentality" it will show up in his stats.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:44 pm

jb wrote:hahaha....

That, my man, is where I draw the line. I know on the interwebs people like to play the lame "you think you should be the ______" card anytime you don't knob gobble, but in this area there's NFW I know more about the players than Tito and Mick.


Oh, I get it now. So you can tell everybody else they're wrong, whether they've followed the Indians extremely closely this season or not, you can spout off about how roles are outdated and irrelevant, even though the article I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles, but when you get the chance to call your shot, you put your tail between your legs. Everybody else is wrong in your mind, but god forbid you get proven wrong if the guy whose name you drop struggles in the role.

No, jb. You get the "who do you think should be the ______" when you've shown that you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 2:57 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:hahaha....

That, my man, is where I draw the line. I know on the interwebs people like to play the lame "you think you should be the ______" card anytime you don't knob gobble, but in this area there's NFW I know more about the players than Tito and Mick.


Oh, I get it now. So you can tell everybody else they're wrong, whether they've followed the Indians extremely closely this season or not, you can spout off about how roles are outdated and irrelevant, even though the article I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles, but when you get the chance to call your shot, you put your tail between your legs. Everybody else is wrong in your mind, but god forbid you get proven wrong if the guy whose name you drop struggles in the role.

No, jb. You get the "who do you think should be the ______" when you've shown that you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.



Translation: Adam throws a temper tantrum and attacks when other posters don't play by his rules.

Honestly, this Tribe team doesn't excite me. I lost interest over the years in minor league prospects. I watch games and follow box scores. I'll look at stats. But as a psycho fan I once was?

Meh. I don't really believe.

Doesn't mean I don't understand SABRmetrics and understand Perez is toast lately. Doesn't mean I worship at the alter of The Closer when nothing really quantifies it.

And this whole "roles" thing is grossly overblown and you guys jump to conclusions. easier to throw a fit than read and discourse I suppose.

Not believing a player in a set role as closer for a season come hell or high water is an immutable given is not to be confused with saying Yan Gomes should play LF when Brantley sprains a wrist. If YOU think YOU as a fan should make a call as to who does what, you're the one that should just be threading with yourself (e.g. - go give your snotty lecture to a mirror). IDK is there is a better closer on the team than Perez or not. Not my job. I'm not egotistical enough to say there is or isn't compared to the manager. If Francona still thinks Perez is the best closer on the team for a good reason, by all means, he outta throw him out there. What I am saying is the assumptions and the reasons I've read as to why a change can't be made from Perez are bunk thinking.

You guys just don't make an effort to understand me. Sniffle. :lmfao:
Last edited by jb on Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:07 pm

skatingtripods wrote: I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles,.



Oh, and I did read it. Good read. I just don't think it is a convincing argument that a player needing to know when to pound his red bulls should drive managerial decisions over data.

I guess that deserves venom though.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:11 pm

jb wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:hahaha....

That, my man, is where I draw the line. I know on the interwebs people like to play the lame "you think you should be the ______" card anytime you don't knob gobble, but in this area there's NFW I know more about the players than Tito and Mick.


Oh, I get it now. So you can tell everybody else they're wrong, whether they've followed the Indians extremely closely this season or not, you can spout off about how roles are outdated and irrelevant, even though the article I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles, but when you get the chance to call your shot, you put your tail between your legs. Everybody else is wrong in your mind, but god forbid you get proven wrong if the guy whose name you drop struggles in the role.

No, jb. You get the "who do you think should be the ______" when you've shown that you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.



Translation: Adam throws a temper tantrum and attacks when other posters don't play by his rules.


Hilarious.

In what way did I attack you by pointing out facts? Roles are not outdated. Peeker and I (and others) have followed far more closely than you have. And you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Not a temper tantrum nor an attack. Statements of fact.

You made a claim in response to Peeker that designated roles for pitchers has been "discredited". Of course, that was after the link I posted to the Keri piece, in which he wrote:

Another theory: Pitchers, and athletes in general, perform best when they have clearly defined roles. Regardless of whether this is actually true, pitchers might believe it to be true, and thus get flustered when called upon to pitch at an unexpected time in the game. We've seen enough closers get whacked for four runs on a day when they're just trying to get work in to wonder if there might be something to all of that. On a more basic level, talk to enough relief pitchers and you'll find that they have routines they use to ramp up to their specific entry time in a game. When Troy Percival was in his prime as a flame-throwing closer, he drank 10 cups of coffee and plowed through wad after wad of chewing tobacco; for today's pitchers, that's often two or three cans of Red Bull. Mess with routines and relievers could fail to get sufficiently wired — naturally or chemically — before coming into a game, or could load up on adrenaline too early, only to crash if and when the call doesn't come until much later.


so, reading between the lines, pitchers that Keri has spoken to like designated roles because of what it does for their pre-appearance preparation. It's a matter of comfort. Hardly "discredited".

Keri, for what it's worth, is not a fan of the save statistic, and neither are most sabermetrically-inclined people, so it's not like he's defending this long-time ideology out of self-interest.

But, you read the piece, apparently.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:16 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:hahaha....

That, my man, is where I draw the line. I know on the interwebs people like to play the lame "you think you should be the ______" card anytime you don't knob gobble, but in this area there's NFW I know more about the players than Tito and Mick.


Oh, I get it now. So you can tell everybody else they're wrong, whether they've followed the Indians extremely closely this season or not, you can spout off about how roles are outdated and irrelevant, even though the article I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles, but when you get the chance to call your shot, you put your tail between your legs. Everybody else is wrong in your mind, but god forbid you get proven wrong if the guy whose name you drop struggles in the role.

No, jb. You get the "who do you think should be the ______" when you've shown that you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.



Translation: Adam throws a temper tantrum and attacks when other posters don't play by his rules.


Hilarious.

In what way did I attack you by pointing out facts? Roles are not outdated. Peeker and I (and others) have followed far more closely than you have. And you have no fucking idea what you're talking about.

Not a temper tantrum nor an attack. Statements of fact.

You made a claim in response to Peeker that designated roles for pitchers has been "discredited". Of course, that was after the link I posted to the Keri piece, in which he wrote:

Another theory: Pitchers, and athletes in general, perform best when they have clearly defined roles. Regardless of whether this is actually true, pitchers might believe it to be true, and thus get flustered when called upon to pitch at an unexpected time in the game. We've seen enough closers get whacked for four runs on a day when they're just trying to get work in to wonder if there might be something to all of that. On a more basic level, talk to enough relief pitchers and you'll find that they have routines they use to ramp up to their specific entry time in a game. When Troy Percival was in his prime as a flame-throwing closer, he drank 10 cups of coffee and plowed through wad after wad of chewing tobacco; for today's pitchers, that's often two or three cans of Red Bull. Mess with routines and relievers could fail to get sufficiently wired — naturally or chemically — before coming into a game, or could load up on adrenaline too early, only to crash if and when the call doesn't come until much later.


so, reading between the lines, pitchers that Keri has spoken to like designated roles because of what it does for their pre-appearance preparation. It's a matter of comfort. Hardly "discredited".

Keri, for what it's worth, is not a fan of the save statistic, and neither are most sabermetrically-inclined people, so it's not like he's defending this long-time ideology out of self-interest.

But, you read the piece, apparently. So I guess you missed that part.


No, I never said you were ignorant.

Again, you're making inferences. You're ranting.

I pretty much said you're threading like a childish dick. Just wanted to make that clear.

No one needs "call outs" or testimonials about what you think you have or haven't been following closely.

What I read and believe Peeker to be writing is that roles trump all. He's suggesting that at this juncture of a season the die is caste and you can't make a change to closer even though Perez is blowing up. Players can't roll with those changes and it is too disruptive. The conclusion I read is that it is better to take your chances with an unstable closer than to make a change. I disagree. I've explained why.

Anytime you want to put the wheels back on the wagon to a discussion your move, sir.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:19 pm

jb wrote:
skatingtripods wrote: I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles,.



Oh, and I did read it. Good read. I just don't think it is a convincing argument that a player needing to know when to pound his red bulls should drive managerial decisions over data.

I guess that deserves venom though.


Keri's the messenger. Those aren't his thoughts on roles. As I said in the post I just put up, Keri's not a supporter of the save. He, like most saber-minded people believes in using your best guy in the highest leverage situation, whenever that may be.

To an extent, I agree with that notion, though the Indians have used Perez in the highest leverage situation more often than not as his average leverage index since 2010 is third out of 212 qualified relievers.

The highest non-closer for most of that span is Daniel Bard at 24th.

Keri was also writing for entertainment in that piece as well, so the whole Red Bull thing is probably disingenuous. From a more practical standpoint, pitchers have a routine while sitting in the pen. I've seen them ride the exercise bike. I've seen them use the bands to stretch at certain times. I've seen them throw medicine balls off the bullpen wall. I've seen them looking at charts with the bullpen catchers.

It's not like they're all sitting in chairs silently like Catholic school children. They've got routines, the same as every other person in the world does.

Ask 100 relievers and the number will be in the high 90s of guys saying they like knowing when they'll be used. It's dictated by the starter, but they'll be able to prepare as they see the game going along.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:25 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:
skatingtripods wrote: I posted above from Jonah Keri discussed how players, managers, and front offices believe in roles,.



Oh, and I did read it. Good read. I just don't think it is a convincing argument that a player needing to know when to pound his red bulls should drive managerial decisions over data.

I guess that deserves venom though.


Keri's the messenger. Those aren't his thoughts. As I said in the post I just put up, Keri's not a supporter of the save. He, like most saber-minded people believes in using your best guy in the highest leverage situation, whenever that may be.

To an extent, I agree with that notion, though the Indians have used Perez in the highest leverage situation more often than not as his average leverage index since 2010 is third out of 212 qualified relievers.

The highest non-closer for most of that span is Daniel Bard at 24th.

Keri was also writing for entertainment in that piece as well, so the whole Red Bull thing is probably disingenuous. From a more practical standpoint, pitchers have a routine while sitting in the pen. I've seen them ride the exercise bike. I've seen them use the bands to stretch at certain times. I've seen them throw medicine balls off the bullpen wall. I've seen them looking at charts with the bullpen catchers.

It's not like they're all sitting in chairs silently like Catholic school children. They've got routines, the same as every other person in the world does.

Ask 100 relievers and the number will be in the high 90s of guys saying they like knowing when they'll be used. It's dictated by the starter, but they'll be able to prepare as they see the game going along.



OK, now we're back on track. Thank you.

I don't doubt you for one second players like roles and managers like to use them that way. If they are performing, I'm all in.

But when they are failing at roles, you have to make a change.

The question is whether CP is failing and what to do heading into the post season provided they don't blow it getting there with him?

Personally, I think his last month has been shaky. You';re right, I need to take a look at the last months meaningful stats before spouting off making assumptions myself. If you need to "call me out" on anything there's your topic.

I don't think that it is a good idea to put a Masty in that is coming off rehab and hasn't been in the bully in years is a good idea. So its up to the staff to decide who is a good fit if he is better than CP now and fill up the set up accordingly. Set up the roles for today thru whatever constitutes the post season if you will.

Given the value of closers I don't see why this task is moving heaven and earth despite all I've read. The alternative is to fiddle while Rome burns.

Edit: Well, my lyin' eyes do not deceive me here.

I really don't know what sort of argument one can make that it is a good idea and there are no alternatives that your closer has a WHIP of 2.46 in September heading into the last week and post-season, including when to pass a medicine ball or shuck 3 Monsters. ;-)

Ugly stuff. I usually don't care for ERA, but a closer with an ERA over 9? Guh. Best can say is he's better than Mujica so there's no Brandon Phillips thread on that.
Last edited by jb on Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby Kingpin74 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:33 pm

Adam, even a lot of the original Saber guys have been pretty loyal to the closer's role. Beane may have not wanted to pay a lot for the guy and relied on hidden gems like Isringhausen, Billy Koch, etc., but he almost always committed to someone in that role (even today, Balfour has been huge for them the last two years). The only time I can think of a Saber guy truly going closer by committee was Theo Epstein in 2003 for the Red Sox and it was a disaster. There absolutely is value on regularity for all bullpen roles, and I can even understand closers getting more rope because of the clusterf*ck that mid-9th inning pitching changes can be (plus shaking confidence, etc.).

That said, Chris Perez has done more than enough to be fired from the valued closer role ASAP.
Last edited by Kingpin74 on Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do...win the whole, f***in', thing."- Jake Taylor
User avatar
Kingpin74
 
Posts: 624
Joined: Mon Apr 06, 2009 1:11 pm
Favorite Player: Mario Lemieux
Least Favorite Player: Dwight Howard

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby googleeph2 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:34 pm

skatingtripods wrote:It takes a certain personality to close. I truly believe that and it's one of the ways I deviate from saber ideology. (cut)..My play would be Shaw in the closer's role, but I wouldn't like it. (cut).. But, he's the swing-and-miss guy in the pen right now and I want a closer that doesn't have to pitch to contact.


I go back to the comment in your article on Pleskoff, where he tapped his chest. One thing that was attractive to me about Masterson closing was I believe he has that kind of heart. So Shaw has it, I guess? Who else?

(I mostly listen to radio broadcasts, and read reviews here and watch highlights.)
User avatar
googleeph2
 
Posts: 1711
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:40 am
Favorite Player: Todd Beamer
Least Favorite Player: .

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:35 pm

jb wrote:What I read and believe Peeker to be writing is that roles trump all. He's suggesting that at this juncture of a season the die is caste and you can't make a change to closer even though Perez is blowing up. Players can't roll with those changes and it is too disruptive. The conclusion I read is that it is better to take your chances with an unstable closer than to make a change. I disagree. I've explained why.

Anytime you want to put the wheels back on the wagon to a discussion your move, sir.


What I think you're missing about Peeker's post is that the Indians have one closer on the team. Chris Perez is that guy. Nobody else would appear equipped to be the closer.

Allen is less than 100 innings into a career in a season in which he has far surpassed his previous career high in appearances. His average leverage index is 0.91, and 1.00 is considered average. No experience in such a crucial role. This season, his leverage index is 1.08, so slightly above average. Not exactly the 2.03 that Perez has.

Joe Smith could close in a pinch and may get that chance.

Lefties have a .283/.354/.381/.735 off of Shaw, and it was much higher up until this season, I believe into the .820s in OPS. His leverage index is 1.04. He'd be my choice, for the simple fact that he can miss bats and has been the most consistent guy this month.

The importance of roles is that the guys the Indians have at the back end of the pen only know the role that they're currently in. None of them have extensive closing experience and I have a hard time believing that anybody can just walk in there and do it. It's a different mindset. You blow a game in the 8th, you have a shot to win it. You blow a game in the 9th, your win expectancy drops like a rock or you outright lose.

There are probably countless examples of elite setup guys that couldn't close. Similarly, once a guy fails as a closer, it's very hard to find a new role for him and he winds up bouncing to another team to try to be the closer again.

Roles matter. If they didn't, managers wouldn't adhere to them.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:37 pm

I though Vinnie Pestano was supposed to be the closer in waiting?!?!?!
“Irony is wasted on the stupid” - Oscar Wilde
User avatar
e0y2e3
Et Tu, Brute?
 
Posts: 13982
Joined: Mon Mar 12, 2007 5:41 pm
Favorite Player: Prosecutor
Least Favorite Player: motherscratcher

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:42 pm

Kingpin74 wrote:Adam, even a lot of the original Saber guys have been pretty loyal to the closer's role. Beane may have not wanted to pay a lot for the guy and relied on hidden gems like Isringhausen, Billy Koch, etc., but he almost always committed to someone in that role (even today, Balfour has been huge for them the last two years). The only time I can think of a Saber guy truly going closer by committee was Theo Epstein in 2003 for the Red Sox and it was a disaster. There absolutely is value on regularity for all bullpen roles, and I can even understand closers getting more rope because of the clusterf*ck that mid-9th inning pitching changes can be (plus shaking confidence, etc.).

That said, Chris Perez has done more than enough to be fired from the valued closer role ASAP.


Great point on Koch. Of course, Koch had already been the closer for three years in Toronto. Not to mention, to look at bullpen volatility, Koch was out of baseball after just a six-year career.

Beane picked up Koch after he put up a 4.80 ERA in Toronto in 2001. But, Beane also jettisoned Koch after he got one year out of him. So, yes, bullpen commodities come and go. But the constant is that closers always find closing jobs. That's not a coincidence.

Isringhausen pushes the narrative about failed starters becoming closers.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:45 pm

googleeph2 wrote:I go back to the comment in your article on Pleskoff, where he tapped his chest. One thing that was attractive to me about Masterson closing was I believe he has that kind of heart.


Masterson's problem isn't an issue about his willingness to enter the role or his mindset to do it, it's simply that he's made two appearances in a month.

Had he dealt with the oblique at the start of August and come back and pitched seven or eight times as a reliever in September, I might think differently.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:50 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:What I read and believe Peeker to be writing is that roles trump all. He's suggesting that at this juncture of a season the die is caste and you can't make a change to closer even though Perez is blowing up. Players can't roll with those changes and it is too disruptive. The conclusion I read is that it is better to take your chances with an unstable closer than to make a change. I disagree. I've explained why.

Anytime you want to put the wheels back on the wagon to a discussion your move, sir.


What I think you're missing about Peeker's post is that the Indians have one closer on the team. Chris Perez is that guy. Nobody else would appear equipped to be the closer.

Allen is less than 100 innings into a career in a season in which he has far surpassed his previous career high in appearances. His average leverage index is 0.91, and 1.00 is considered average. No experience in such a crucial role. This season, his leverage index is 1.08, so slightly above average. Not exactly the 2.03 that Perez has.

Joe Smith could close in a pinch and may get that chance.

Lefties have a .283/.354/.381/.735 off of Shaw, and it was much higher up until this season, I believe into the .820s in OPS. His leverage index is 1.04. He'd be my choice, for the simple fact that he can miss bats and has been the most consistent guy this month.

The importance of roles is that the guys the Indians have at the back end of the pen only know the role that they're currently in. None of them have extensive closing experience and I have a hard time believing that anybody can just walk in there and do it. It's a different mindset. You blow a game in the 8th, you have a shot to win it. You blow a game in the 9th, your win expectancy drops like a rock or you outright lose.

There are probably countless examples of elite setup guys that couldn't close. Similarly, once a guy fails as a closer, it's very hard to find a new role for him and he winds up bouncing to another team to try to be the closer again.

Roles matter. If they didn't, managers wouldn't adhere to them.



Well, there's choices and there's good choices.

When your closer goes south in September those good choices slip away.

The things got off track with "roles" and the smack. Its always Peeker's fault if it's not Eyes. ;-)

Roles are great if this go according to plan. But Perez is awful to the point of unusable.,

If your point is that Perez is the best yah got and there is no one to fill the role in this pinch, you could be dead nuts right. However, you just can't keep trotting him out there to be a gas can. The line where I first jumped in was "You guys are nuts. Like it or not Chris Perez is the closer".

If the Tribe truly has no alternatives that Tito think are viable, and if the crap sammich choice set truly is CP of matchup 9th inning by committee, I hold my nose and go with the latter. Sure as shit wouldn't be my plan going into the season, and it's far from ideal, and long term roles are good etc etc etc, but the alternative of putting head in sand isn't logical to me. Its the definition of insanity.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:50 pm

JB I think you're arguing the point I stand for, which is if a guy can get people out (and/or happens to be hot, as it can obviously help) then he can close, as the role of closer is X (X containing some subtle variations). I just don't think right now you're doing a good job of making yourself clear, matter of fact you've been in a funk about making yourself clear for weeks... Maybe it's your diet or maybe you're not posting at your target heart rate. :shrug

BTW Adam, "greatest" closer ever was a failed starter no?
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:51 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:I though Vinnie Pestano was supposed to be the closer in waiting?!?!?!


I wonder what kind of season he'd have had had it not been for his participation in the World Baseball Classic. Speculating probably doesn't do much good, but he said that the arm issue that sidelined him this season was a problem last year as well, but they treated it and managed it. He went from 0 to 60 to go to the WBC while other pitchers went from 0 to 15 to 30 to 45 to 60.

Pain + mechanical changes to try and ease the pain = what we've seen.

Fair to wonder if he returns to the form we're more accustomed to next season.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:53 pm

FUDU wrote:JB I think you're arguing the point I stand for, which is if a guy can get people out (and/or happens to be hot, as it can obviously help) then he can close, as the role of closer is X (X containing some subtle variations). I just don't think right now you're doing a good job of making yourself clear,



Well, yer just the man to bail me out I'm sure.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:56 pm

FUDU wrote:BTW Adam, "greatest" closer ever was a failed starter no?


Not sure if I'd call him a failed starter, since he made 68 MiLB starts out of 103 appearances (most relief appearances in his first year of Rookie ball) and posted a 2.35 ERA. His one partial year of starts in MLB was ugly, though, so I guess you could call him a failed starter.

What that guy did with predominantly one pitch is just incredible.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:01 pm

I've often wondered where his magical velocity came from, seeing as he was on his way out the door b/c he couldn't hit 91-92 early 90s.
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:08 pm

FUDU wrote:I've often wondered where his magical velocity came from, seeing as he was on his way out the door b/c he couldn't hit 91-92 early 90s.


I can't speak on that because I'm not familiar with his development, but obviously it's easier to keep velo throwing one inning as opposed to trying to throw five or six innings.

Fangraphs's velocity tracking only goes back to 2002, but his highest average FB velo over the course of the sample size is 93.8 in 2006. Interesting that as he went exclusively to the cutter, or as PITCHf/x classifications improved and more fastballs started being labeled as cutters, his velocity on the cutter dropped almost every single year.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:13 pm

jb wrote:
peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
peeker643 wrote:
jb wrote:
Kingpin74 wrote:I just don't understand what makes closers so sacred.


Folklore.

People like Peeker worrying that players will cry about roles.


Jesus. I don't know how you're not running a franchise right now.

The Billy Beane of the Boards with your anti-establishment, turn the sport upside down approach.

You know how I know you're full of shit (other than simply knowing you're full of shit)?

Because any player or manager or pitching coach you ask, hear, talk to, or read, wants established roles. It's that simple. I know you're smarter than, well, every single major league manager, player and pitching coach, but that's the way they do it and they do it because it gives them the best results.

And no, I'm not linking shit about because there's 58,000 links you can look up yourself. That's if common sense and your last 40 years on earth don't sink in.

But you know what? They should just go into this last weekend, one game up in the wild card race, in three games they absolutely have to have, and throw whoever feels like going out there on the mound. See what happens. And if that guy happens to typically pitch in the 8th inning, then just raffle off that inning to the next guy who wants it.

Might be fun to throw the names in a hat for the lineup too. Potentially let Brantley catch... Fuck roles.



meh, you and you ilk have long been discredited.


True. Every night when all these teams go with your closer by committee approach I lose more and more credibility while yours soars.



I never wrote or advocated "closer by committeee". You inferred that and got a bug up yer butt.

What I wrote is:

a) the quality of the pitcher you need as an effective closer is overrated;
b) when your closer is proven to be ineffective, make a change;
c) just because there have been established roles in the past doesn't mean you don't ever change roles.

It's time to sit Perez and get a new guy to close.


You said (and I quote):

Just put any reliever in instead of Perez that isn't strictly a matchup guy or run the 9 with your set up men like its the 8th.


And you said:

The whole mentality of "Roles" is misguided .


And misguided means based or acting on error, right?

That's what you said. And ya said it acting like a dick. And if, "run the 9 with your set up men like its the 8th" (assuming 'men' is plural for 'man' and not just another error caused by your sausage sized fingers) then that sounds an awful lot like a guy advocating closer by committee to me.

But I'll let it go for what you're trying to sell it as now. I'm magnanimous that
way. Plus I think your job sharing shit is all tied to your 'centrist' position on politics and making sure everyone gets an equal share of everything. ;-) ;) :wink:
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22680
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby 1Perry » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:14 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:What I read and believe Peeker to be writing is that roles trump all. He's suggesting that at this juncture of a season the die is caste and you can't make a change to closer even though Perez is blowing up. Players can't roll with those changes and it is too disruptive. The conclusion I read is that it is better to take your chances with an unstable closer than to make a change. I disagree. I've explained why.

Anytime you want to put the wheels back on the wagon to a discussion your move, sir.


What I think you're missing about Peeker's post is that the Indians have one closer on the team. Chris Perez is that guy. Nobody else would appear equipped to be the closer.


Technically Bourne is the only CF on the team. The last couple games he hasn't been the center fielder because he was hurt. While it's not the best case scenario others have filled in.

Perez is hurt whether or not it's a physical injury. While it's not best case you don't keep on playing someone that's hurt.
User avatar
1Perry
The Shapiro of Posters
 
Posts: 1855
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:56 pm

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:14 pm

The story I remember was his velo was 90-91 tops, and then one day voila he was hitting 95 consistently. I'm not suggesting anything questionable going on, just wondering if true how it happened or why it was never a bigger story considering his rise from nowhere.
Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect.
"I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

2011 TCF Stratomatic Champ
User avatar
FUDU
 
Posts: 13356
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2007 2:02 am
Favorite Player: Me
Least Favorite Player: You

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby googleeph2 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:18 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Masterson's problem ...... simply that he's made two appearances in a month.


No, I understand. I'm done touting him, was just further explaining my original take.

Why did we like Pestano as the closer-in-waiting? He could strike guyes out, but part of it was heart- right? I was just wondering who else on the relief staff has that. Seems like a lot of them. Maybe that's a point jb was making?

Also, Rivera may not have been a failed starter, but Eckersley was of course. ALthough maybe his success was owed in great part to not drinking like before (who knows- maybe he would have returned to being a good starter if LaRussa used him in that role).
User avatar
googleeph2
 
Posts: 1711
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2006 8:40 am
Favorite Player: Todd Beamer
Least Favorite Player: .

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:18 pm

1Perry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
jb wrote:What I read and believe Peeker to be writing is that roles trump all. He's suggesting that at this juncture of a season the die is caste and you can't make a change to closer even though Perez is blowing up. Players can't roll with those changes and it is too disruptive. The conclusion I read is that it is better to take your chances with an unstable closer than to make a change. I disagree. I've explained why.

Anytime you want to put the wheels back on the wagon to a discussion your move, sir.


What I think you're missing about Peeker's post is that the Indians have one closer on the team. Chris Perez is that guy. Nobody else would appear equipped to be the closer.


Technically Bourne is the only CF on the team. The last couple games he hasn't been the center fielder because he was hurt. While it's not the best case scenario others have filled in.

Perez is hurt whether or not it's a physical injury. While it's not best case you don't keep on playing someone that's hurt.


Technically, no he is not. Both Stubbs and Brantley have a shitload of games atthe position. And it makes no difference.

If CP has to go (and I still don't think he will) then it needs to be either Carrasco or a guy that ain't making the ALDS starting rotation should they get there.

Because, JB's scarecrow fillibustering aside, I don't give a shit about Perez and have no desire to see him keep a job he's struggling with. I just think he's still the best guy for it. Mostly because he might not struggle next time out and because it has a domino affect if replace him from within the bullpen ranks.
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22680
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: Let's make a run for the whole thing...

Unread postby jb » Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:18 pm

FUDU wrote:JB I think you're arguing the point I stand for, which is if a guy can get people out (and/or happens to be hot, as it can obviously help) then he can close, as the role of closer is X (X containing some subtle variations). I just don't think right now you're doing a good job of making yourself clear, matter of fact you've been in a funk about making yourself clear for weeks... Maybe it's your diet or maybe you're not posting at your target heart rate. :shrug


Realy not what I'm saying at all.

Maybe I need to write in bullet format like as if this is work? ;-)

* All things being equal and productive, roles = good.

* Roles do not trump performance.

* Performance is always measureable in MLB.

* The only variable to that statement is relevancy of sample size and recency.

* The mystique of the Closer as some sort of valuable commodity is overrated. In most cases, any given schmuck who is effective for one inning can fill the role. I thought that was pretty much understood as a given in this day and age now that there's no mystery to SABRmetrics' baseball and it's about as revolutionary as Gallileo's theories. I can't even believe that discussion would be in play. Not sure it is, FUDU.

* Chris Perez needs to be replaced, stat. He blows so bad even he knows it. I'm just talking right now when it matters most. Not saying he can never correct. having established that, the declarative statement "Like it or not, Chris Perez is the closer" is not the best option. On the contrary, it is unacceptable.

* Preferred logical option one: Find a reliever who can replace him. It it brings us kumbayah, "fill the role of closer".

* I believe I am reading Adam opine something along the lines of the refrane from David Lee Roth crooning Just a Giggalo, "Dude, you haven't been following this season. We t'aint't got nobody". I do not claim to take umbridge with Adam's opinion here, let alone Tito & Micky's.

* I do not believe you take your most valuable 1 starter off rehab and chuck him in that role. I doubt effectiveness and you're messing with 2014.

* Closer by committee of match up pitchers is not the optimal option. You wouldn't plan a season doing that. But if it is true there's no one else, your choice is Chris Perez or 9th inning by managing a match-up committee.

* I go with the latter and think it is the perfectly logical alternative rather than something to be shit on without thoughtful discussion due to folk lore that it can't be done in this situation.

How's that, FUDU? Pass the RIF test?
Last edited by jb on Fri Sep 27, 2013 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
jb
 
Posts: 17730
Joined: Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:08 pm
Location: Defend Youngstown
Favorite Player: Daddy Rich / Carwa$h
Least Favorite Player: Hines Ward

PreviousNext

Return to Cleveland Indians & MLB

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ClevelandFanInNewYork, gbot and 4 guests

Who is online

In total there are 6 users online :: 2 registered, 0 hidden and 4 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 181 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:50 pm

Users browsing this forum: ClevelandFanInNewYork, gbot and 4 guests