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Ubaldo

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Ubaldo

Unread postby phutatorius » Wed May 23, 2012 1:22 pm

I'm trying so hard to take a position about Jimenez, but I keep finding myself yanked back into a posture of ambivalence. The guy's command continuum ranges from Absolute Zero to Inning-by-Inning Inconsistent. He simply can't raise the needle any higher than that. You could argue that for all but two of his starts, he's taken the mound with next to nothing. We blew a Tier 1 and a Tier 1A prospect for him, and we're invested to the point where we have to allow him to "work on his mechanics" over a period of months in consequential major-league games. It's frickin' excruciating.

On the other hand, just as I'm about through the roof, cursing in the parking lot of the Jasper White's Summer Shack in front of my small children, belly abroil with blue cheese and malt vinegar-doused fish and chips, because he's gone and gagged up a 3-run gopher ball to Alex Avila -- well, he grits his teeth, pitches on, gives us 6 innings and takes home the win.

He's 5-3, and his numbers are pretty much godawful. But The U hangs around. I don't know what the formula is -- I don't know how many parts grit, how many parts unrufflement, how many parts veteran wiles. But even though the guy comes out every five days looking pretty consistently terrible, he manages to hang around most of the time. Maybe it's a matter of perception, and the truth is the offense keeps bailing him out, but you've got to tip your hat to a guy who is at the highest level, has no apparent physical ability to throw a baseball where he wants it to go, and yet still can get outs and keep his team in games.

Makes me wonder what he'd be if he had grit, wiles, shake-it-off-ness AND command.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby motherscratcher » Wed May 23, 2012 1:33 pm

Well, unlike Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo just knows how to win.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Wed May 23, 2012 1:35 pm

Ian Kennedy and Ivan Nova were the 2 best pitchers in the league last year.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Wed May 23, 2012 1:52 pm

Too bad the U can't be awesome like our all universe Cy young candidate, Derek Lowe.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed May 23, 2012 2:38 pm

I've started, erased, and re-started this post about 12 times trying to figure out how to word all of this. Ubaldo's season is something that couldn't even be drawn up by the most insane sabermetrician.

His BB/9 is an astounding 6.58, a full 2.5 BB/9 above his career average and almost double his 2011 number of 3.73. His BABip against is .268, which is unbelievably close to his .254 AVG against. Consider that for his career, Ubaldo's AVG against is .231 and BABip against is .285. His K% is 8.5% off his career of 21%. His 72.3% LOB% (left on base %) is almost right at his career average of 71.2%. His 5.81 FIP is a full two runs above his career and a full two runs above his 2011 FIP.

His velo is down and he's thrown more curve balls this year than he did in the previous 5 seasons. Yet, he's thrown more first pitch strikes this season than he ever has (except 2006's small sample size of 2 games). His GB% is the lowest it has ever been.

What we're seeing here, and this really isn't all that shocking, is a guy who has the chance to get progressively worse as the season goes on. Hard to believe he could get any worse, but the numbers definitely point to it. You would think that such drastic outliers to his career numbers would mean that he should get better and start to move closer to his mean, but that really doesn't look plausible.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby justmebd » Wed May 23, 2012 2:46 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I've started, erased, and re-started this post about 12 times trying to figure out how to word all of this. Ubaldo's season is something that couldn't even be drawn up by the most insane sabermetrician.

His BB/9 is an astounding 6.58, a full 2.5 BB/9 above his career average and almost double his 2011 number of 3.73. His BABip against is .268, which is unbelievably close to his .254 AVG against. Consider that for his career, Ubaldo's AVG against is .231 and BABip against is .285. His K% is 8.5% off his career of 21%. His 72.3% LOB% (left on base %) is almost right at his career average of 71.2%. His 5.81 FIP is a full two runs above his career and a full two runs above his 2011 FIP.

His velo is down and he's thrown more curve balls this year than he did in the previous 5 seasons. Yet, he's thrown more first pitch strikes this season than he ever has (except 2006's small sample size of 2 games). His GB% is the lowest it has ever been.

What we're seeing here, and this really isn't all that shocking, is a guy who has the chance to get progressively worse as the season goes on. Hard to believe he could get any worse, but the numbers definitely point to it. You would think that such drastic outliers to his career numbers would mean that he should get better and start to move closer to his mean, but that really doesn't look plausible.

More to the point, is there any way you can blame this on Johnny Damon? ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed May 23, 2012 2:56 pm

justmebd wrote:More to the point, is there any way you can blame this on Johnny Damon? ;-) ;) :wink:


Well, actually, yes. Seeing as how his GB% is down, more balls are being hit to the outfield, thus giving the opponent more chances to expose Johnny Damon as the terrible outfielder that he is. If Damon is playing outs into singles, or singles into doubles, that would definitely have an effect on Ubaldo since his WHIP is already astronomically high and his OBP against is 31 points higher when pitching with runners on base (pitching out of the stretch).



On a side note, how about these for some interesting splits.

Sample size should be noted, but...

In 2 starts with Marson, Ubaldo has a 7.45 ERA with a .370/.473/.630/1.103 slash line.

In 7 starts with Santana, 4.46 ERA, .219/.346/.368/.714 slash line.

At home: 3-1, 3.38, .171/.292/.297/.590
On road: 2-2, 7.65, .356/.473/.589/1.062
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed May 23, 2012 4:41 pm

How bout before we bring this topic up again we wait for at least one of the follwoing happen:

1. The guy have ANY semblance of command.

2. He's under 75 pitches through the 5th.

3. He gets some velocity back (and no, this isn't "that one pitch that hit 95 last night")

4. He shows anywhere close to an ability to consistently miss bats.

5. He stops cocking around with 4 or 5 breaking pitches an at bat to the 7-8-9 hitters.

6. You can say "He looks like an ace" without laughing.

My God. He stinks. Period. Again, not to bring back the ghost of Andy Marte, but ferchristsake, what you SEE is real. For the 9,000th time, a guy with zero command (who NEVER had great command) with average velocity is......a guy with an ERA around 5. Today, tommorrow and yesterday. He ain't gonna get the command he never had, and the track record of guys getting back their velocity with similiar type workloads as he's had in his career is...not...good.

They didn't trade for a guy that could painfully squeeze out a 6 walk quality start, yet on the occasion that happens, guys are pulling down their trousers and going to town.

You are asking for miracles here. He is what he is. There is no magic dust. Really no different than throwing Huff or Mac out on the bump, or anyone else they wanna give a shot to.

I mean, what are we expecting to happen here?
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby CTtribefan » Wed May 23, 2012 4:50 pm

Effectively wild. Ubaldo Jimenez the real life version or Rick Vaughn. I wonder if they have given him and eye test. Perhaps he just can't see where he is throwing?
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby bookelly » Wed May 23, 2012 7:51 pm

He does throw strikes when he has to. He needs to ditch the splitter unless he's ahead in the count. And the first pitch curve is nice.

He used to throw his fastball way more often (65% to 40% now), he needs to get back to it.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby scrambler » Wed May 23, 2012 7:53 pm

some depressing numbers....trade deadline 2011 pitchers by Detroit and Cleveland after the trades....

Fister 93 innings, 75 hits, 10 walks, 76 K 0.91 WHIP

Jimenez 117.1 innings, 119 hits, 65 walks, 92 K 1.57 WHIP

Detroit gave up the great Casper Wells. ripping off seattle in trades is pretty much universal now!!
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed May 23, 2012 8:45 pm

bookelly wrote:He does throw strikes when he has to.


Yep. Like the 90mph strike that .225 hitting Max Avila hit 600 feet last night.

In any other uniform he's a broke-dick joke people here would be laughing at. Seriously, if the Tigers had traded for him people here would be falling all over themselves with glee.

The guy is fucking Fausto Carmona. He's unreliable and he'll occasionally tease you.

Call him what he is.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby BigMoney » Thu May 24, 2012 5:43 am

He has severely declined as shown by his diminished velocity without gaining more control or movement. If he doesn't improve on something, whether it be is control or repertoire, I believe his ERA will be even worse in the future. To be a serviceable MLB pitcher, I believe he needs to have a major improvement, not just a small one.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Thu May 24, 2012 8:52 am

I'm not going to use any fancy SAT stylings or advanced stats.

He blows, and McAllister or Huff or some other AAAA guy who can actually throw strikes (even if they are lower nineties and get hit into play) will be starting down the stretch for this team.

He's shitty.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Thu May 24, 2012 9:33 am

The only saving grace is that both Pomeranz and White have been pretty shitty too. The Indians may have blown their biggest trade chips.... but it looks like so did the Rockies. Both White/Pomeranz had questions about 3rd pitches when they were with the Indians, and it doesn't look like they've answered them.


White/Pomeranz combined career numbers:
110 innings in 22 starts: 73 earned runs, 174 baserunners, 83:50 K:BB ratio
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu May 24, 2012 11:35 am

Amazingly enough, exercising his option or not next year is actually something management needs to think about. Of course, giving up two of your top prospects for a guy means that regardless of how much he sucks, they'll pick up that option and we'll have to watch more 5-6 inning 6 walk performances out of a guy who was supposed to put us over the top.

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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu May 24, 2012 11:37 am

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:The only saving grace is that both Pomeranz and White have been pretty shitty too. The Indians may have blown their biggest trade chips.... but it looks like so did the Rockies. Both White/Pomeranz had questions about 3rd pitches when they were with the Indians, and it doesn't look like they've answered them.


White/Pomeranz combined career numbers:
110 innings in 22 starts: 73 earned runs, 174 baserunners, 83:50 K:BB ratio


Pomeranz is back in AAA, but White hasn't pitched badly in his four starts this year. At least he's King more guys than he walks. I'd take that right about now.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Thu May 24, 2012 12:54 pm

The worst part is that Pom/White + extras probably would have gotten Mat Latos or Gio Gonzalez over the winter. Indians shot their wad at the wrong time.


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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu May 24, 2012 4:32 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:The only saving grace is that both Pomeranz and White have been pretty shitty too. The Indians may have blown their biggest trade chips.... but it looks like so did the Rockies. Both White/Pomeranz had questions about 3rd pitches when they were with the Indians, and it doesn't look like they've answered them.


White/Pomeranz combined career numbers:
110 innings in 22 starts: 73 earned runs, 174 baserunners, 83:50 K:BB ratio


There's no saving grace at all. Cause if White or Pom was up here blowing, they'd replace them under the guise of giving them more time.

Here, Ubaldo is gonna get run out there all year long in hopes of proving they did the correct thing.

In other words, the Tribe would have a much better chance finding someone that knows what the hell he's doing out there if they'dda never pulled the trigger.
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Re: Ubaldo

Unread postby googleeph2 » Thu May 24, 2012 5:24 pm

leadpipe wrote:There's no saving grace at all.


Right- the value White and Pomeranz have now isn't the issue. It's the value they had at the time of the trade. Those chips should have been expected to garner a guy like... well, like a Gio or a Latos.

Reminds me of the trade of Roberto Alomar. They didn't get much for him as it turned out- but the fact he was done didn't make that OK.
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