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The Wedge-ometer

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The Wedge-ometer

Unread postby swerb » Thu May 10, 2007 9:04 pm

Over the course of the last three seasons, we've all had discussions amongst friends or in message forums about the effect managers, and Eric Wedge in particular, have on a teams win-loss record at seasons end.

I've been one of the people saying the Pythag Geeks are right ... this team should have won more games the last three years. But I've never tracked it. We should try and keep track of The Wedge Factor, in here, on this thread, throughout the course of the season.

Now of course we'll have difference of opinion. Most games will be like todays ... I could have been managing the team and there would have been no difference in the outcome. But I think it would be interesting to have one thread to try and collect the time stamped opinions of forum members on games they thought Wedge helped us win or lose.

Wedge is in his fourth year with a team primed to contend after being a dick tease the last two seasons. He's in the last year of his deal, under the microscope of the Dolans and Mark Shapiro. His career rides on this season, and here's hoping Wedge can shock most of us and rise to the occasion and learn from his past mistakes.
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Unread postby FUDU » Thu May 10, 2007 9:36 pm

Good idea.

I have always been of the opinion that a baseball manager is solely responsible for the outcome of roughly 10-12 games a year.

IMO he should be able to win you 5-6 on his own merit, keep you in another 4-5 and lose you 2-3.

Right now off the top of my head I would go with he is 1-1 or 1-2.

Maybe come up with some specific guidelines to keep us somewhat in the same boat?
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Unread postby Hoover » Thu May 10, 2007 11:39 pm

I've been keeping a log on Wedge's moves since April 18th. The only loss I can definitely pin on him was the 4/19 Yankee game when he allowed Borowski to pitch to ARod in the 9th, and didn't have another reliever warming.

Wedge has shown some signs that he's learning, such as pulling starters a bit quicker than the past. He's also using his relievers better. He now has little confidence in Blowberto. It's been a long time since he was used in a close game with the lead. Wedge may finally be learning the kinds of things that Leyland or Torre would pick up in short order. So it's hard to get warm & fuzzy about Wedge's progress.
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Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu May 10, 2007 11:55 pm

The game where Mastny gave up the winning run in the 10th against Baltimore. Mastny was awful the inning before that and he still brought him back out for the 10th is the other one that comes to mind. I know anything could have happened, but he didn't even give us a chance in the 11th.
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Unread postby dmcdougal » Fri May 11, 2007 1:06 am

The biggest change I've noticed is the stealing bases (particularly by Casey Blake) and the hit and run.. They haven't been successful but I respect the effort.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri May 11, 2007 7:24 am

Hoover wrote:I've been keeping a log on Wedge's moves since April 18th. The only loss I can definitely pin on him was the 4/19 Yankee game when he allowed Borowski to pitch to ARod in the 9th, and didn't have another reliever warming.


But did Wedge have a hand in the loss?

Even if you walk A-Rod there is no telling what Giambi does with the bases loaded.

I'm not sure this game would qualify....hell, I am unsure how you can really pinpoint games that HE lost. It is completely subjective because you have no idea what the alternative outcome would have been had he done it.
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Unread postby pup » Fri May 11, 2007 8:44 am

I actually has visions of doing a weekly column last year, called The Wedge Report, going into detail of every decision that was made during a game. The problem I found (as Consig) points out is everything is hindsight. It is easy to say he should have done this, or that, after it happens based on the result. The column would come off as forcing my opinion on Wedge, and didn't work at all.
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Unread postby Hoover » Fri May 11, 2007 9:00 am

Consigliere wrote:
Hoover wrote:I've been keeping a log on Wedge's moves since April 18th. The only loss I can definitely pin on him was the 4/19 Yankee game when he allowed Borowski to pitch to ARod in the 9th, and didn't have another reliever warming.


But did Wedge have a hand in the loss?

Even if you walk A-Rod there is no telling what Giambi does with the bases loaded.

I'm not sure this game would qualify....hell, I am unsure how you can really pinpoint games that HE lost. It is completely subjective because you have no idea what the alternative outcome would have been had he done it.


If this was the first time Wedge's bullpen handling was sloppy, I'd agree with you. But there were many games in 05 & 06 where similar problems occurred. But don't take my word for it. Here's what Hardball Times says about this:

"Wedge's real flaw has been his handling of bullpens, or more specifically, his insistence on assigning roles. He'll set up a pecking order by inning, and then stick to it to the point of exasperation. That's great when you have an excellent and consistent bullpen, like the Indians had in 2005, but a recipe for disaster when there are injuries or just plain inconsistency. Last season, three relievers went on the DL in April, and the bullpen never really recovered. The result was a team with a losing record (78-84, to be exact) that also happened to outscore the opposition by 88 runs. That's a huge disconnect between their actual record and what they should have done. There wasn't a particular week or even month that the bullpen caused havoc; the havoc was spread quite consistently over the entire season. This is a bit of “black box” analysis, but constructing a somewhat reliable bullpen is one of the few things I believe a manager and pitching coach should be able to do on a regular basis. The bullpen is always going to be small Sample Size Theater, and in cases of instability, the manager should be playing general manager on a micro scale, assigning roles and appearances based on their latest observations. For whatever reason, Wedge wasn’t able to adjust after the bullpen fell apart in April."

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Unread postby leadpipe » Fri May 11, 2007 3:06 pm

How many games has it cost them because the pitchers are on a seven year streak of not being able to hold runners close? Poor baserunning? I agree with Pup, everything will start to get based on hindsight and your bashing every ten minutes. Way to aggravating.
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Unread postby FUDU » Fri May 11, 2007 4:22 pm

I am unsure how you can really pinpoint games that HE lost. It is completely subjective because you have no idea what the alternative outcome would have been had he done it.


Buy him doing things that defy baseball logic, hell just plain old logic.
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