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Project the opening day 25 man roster

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Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby swerb » Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:34 pm

LINEUP

CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
C Carlos Santana
DH Travis Hafner
1B Casey Kotchmann
2B Jason Kipnis
LF Michael Brantley
3B Lonnie Chisenhall/Jack Hannahan

BENCH

Chisenhall/Hannahan
Jason Donald
Lou Marson
Ryan Spilbroghs

STARTING ROTATION

Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Tomlin
Derek Lowe
Kevin Slowey

BULLPEN

Chris Perez
Rafael Perez
Tony Sipp
Vinnie Pestano
Joe Smith
Jeremy Accardo
Chen Lee
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Jumbo » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:03 pm

swerb wrote:LINEUP

CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
C Carlos Santana
DH Travis Hafner
1B Casey Kotchmann
2B Jason Kipnis
LF Michael Brantley
3B Lonnie Chisenhall/Jack Hannahan


Yes.

But I'd move the lineup around a little bit to braek up the switch hitters, and Choo batting second doesn't seem right to me. To switch him out, I thought Kipnis batted second last year...checked, 28 out of 34 starts batting second.

Sizemore
Kipnis
Cabrera
Hafner
Santana
Choo
Kotchman
Brantley
Chisenhall

Otherwise, put Cabrera second, move Kipnis behind Choo, and move everybody else up one spot.

BENCH

Chisenhall/Hannahan
Jason Donald
Lou Marson
Ryan Spilbroghs


Duncan for the last spot

STARTING ROTATION

Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Tomlin
Derek Lowe
Kevin Slowey


Yes, with Slowey on a very short leash.


BULLPEN

Chris Perez
Rafael Perez
Tony Sipp
Vinnie Pestano
Joe Smith
Jeremy Accardo
Chen Lee


Frank Herrmann and Nick Hagadone for the last two spots.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby RedDawg53 » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:09 pm

What about Fausto? ? :gah:

Sure about Grady leading-off?
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby swerb » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:12 pm

They got an interesting dilemma with that last offensive roster spot.

I don't know how you could go into the season with Shelley Duncan and Jason Donald (both infielders) as your only guys off the bench to play OF. Especially given the fact that Sizemore is a China Doll, Choo missed almost all of last year, and Brantley is yet to establish himself as a legit starting OF. Yet they need Duncan's RH bat.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:41 pm

Even though he's nothing special, I would think Cunningham would (or at least, should) have a leg up on a reserve spot, simply because he's out of options and we gave up a couple bullpen arms to acquire him.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby GodHatesClevelandSport » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:58 pm

Would love to see them go with a four-man rotation for the first three weeks. Off days make it very easy to do. Then they can keep an extra bat.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby idoctribefan » Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:02 pm

LINEUP

CF Grady Sizemore
RF Shin-Soo Choo
SS Asdrubal Cabrera
C Carlos Santana
DH Travis Hafner
1B Casey Kotchmann
2B Jason Kipnis
LF Michael Brantley
3B Jack Hannahan

BENCH

Jason Donald
Lou Marson
Shelley Duncan
Aaron Cunningham

STARTING ROTATION

Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Tomlin
Derek Lowe
Kevin Slowey

BULLPEN

Chris Perez
Rafael Perez
Tony Sipp
Vinnie Pestano
Joe Smith
Dan Wheeler
C-C Lee

I think Hannahan would have to have a disastrous spring to not be the starting 3B, and they're not going to want to stash him on the bench when Donald is there already as a UTIL and is a RH bat. Duncan and Cunningham make it because they're out of options, and one of them (Cunningham) will probably start in LF with Brantley in CF because Grady Sizemore will see more of the training room than centerfield.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:09 pm

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:Would love to see them go with a four-man rotation for the first three weeks. Off days make it very easy to do. Then they can keep an extra bat.


Which extra slugger are you hoping to see? :hide:
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby GodHatesClevelandSport » Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:56 pm

peeker643 wrote:
GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:Would love to see them go with a four-man rotation for the first three weeks. Off days make it very easy to do. Then they can keep an extra bat.


Which extra slugger are you hoping to see? :hide:


Matt LaPorta, of course!
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:44 pm

Lineup v. LHP
Sizemore/Brantley (CF)
Cabrera
Choo
Santana (DH)
Duncan (LF)
Kipnis
Kotchman
Marson
Donald (3B)

Lineup v. RHP
Sizemore
Cabrera
Choo
Santana
Hafner
Kipnis
Kotchman
Hannahan
Brantley

Bench
Donald
Marson
Duncan
Spilborghs*
Hannahan (if Chisenhall wins 3B job)

Rotation
Masterson
Jimenez
Lowe
Tomlin
Garland (if fails physical, Huff)

Bullpen
Perez
Perez
Smith
Sipp
Pestano
Herrmann**
Wheeler

*If Spilborghs would accept demotion to Columbus, Cunningham gets first crack with no options
**If Chisenhall wins 3B job, Herrmann sent down, Wheeler de facto long man.

Manny Acta will earn his money this year. Has to be extra creative to rest Sizemore and Hafner, milk every drop of potential out of the bench players who excel against LHP, and make sure he's giving Cabrera and Kipnis enough days off to keep them as fresh as possible.

I really don't envy Acta this season. There's a good chance we don't see the same lineup maybe more than 15 times. At least he has much better depth to use.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby swerb » Tue Feb 21, 2012 8:08 pm

I like the depth of this team. It's the best its been going into a season in a while. More the Kotchmann signing sinks in, the more I like that too.

A lot of people are gonna pick this team as a breakout, surprise, 90 win team this season and there's justification for it. Almost all the Tribe's offensive players are in their "prime years", and have had a full season of pretty high production sometime in the last three years. If Choo and Sizemore could play 130 and 150 games respectively, man would it be so huge for this team. Cause the if the depth is shaky anywhere, its in the OF. With the Kotchmann signing, I really like our 8 infielders. People are just totally discounting Chisenhall.

You get back Fausto/Heredia, you got six proven MLB starters to sift through with Jon Garland and the best of Huff/Gomez/McAllister as insurance. Gimme the 2010 Ubaldo and no bullpen regression, and we're off and running.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:04 pm

swerb wrote:You get back Fausto/Heredia, you got six proven MLB starters to sift through with Jon Garland and the best of Huff/Gomez/McAllister as insurance.


Don't forget Slowey. I'd consider him at least somewhat proven. So we'll say 6.5 proven MLB starters.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby pup » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:24 pm

Set your watch to it.

Platoon lineups and a shit ton of average starters.

And some good fortune on the health front.

Love ya all for it. And I hope to God it hits.

If Ubaldo is 2010
If Masterson can still get hooks out
If Tomlin recovers
If Lowe figured out where to part the Barb-o-sil
If Garland can get healthy enough to be able to hold a pen long enough to sign the contract
If Choo is 2010
If Grady is 2006
If Pronk is juicing
If Chiz is young Thome
If Kipnis is Kent (Giant version)
If Santana doesn't use a guitar at the dish
If Kotchman isn't Kotchman
If Brantley isn't Alex Cole w/out the speed

Like I said. I hope you guys are on the right end of this.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby pod2dawg » Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:17 am

^^^^^^ Damn Pup, I start my day every day like that with a shitload of "ifs".........come to think of it I have had a bad last 5 years with a ton of illness & injuries to boot.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Jumbo » Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:51 am

Of all the items you list...

pup wrote:If Ubaldo is 2010
If Choo is 2010


...these are the two that really matter.

BTW: If everything on your list actually "hits" - the Indians win 100 games. They won't, so they won't. They only need "enough" of them, of which two must be Ubaldo and Choo.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Jumbo » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:03 am

swerb wrote:People are just totally discounting Chisenhall.


Stat of the day: One of the stories of the Indians this year is their left handed-heavy lineup. So, it's interesting to note that in his call-up last year Chisenhall had essentially no platoon split:

.253/.282/.358 against RHP
.260/.288/.600 against LHP (due mostly to hitting 5 of his 7 home runs against lefties in only 50 AB).

I doubt that would hold up over a full-season, but it's not like he was completely powerless against lefties. Get Chisenhall as many at-bats as possible this spring, get him comfortable with major league pitching and the strike zone, cut down on his strikeouts.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby British_Pharaoh » Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:30 am

Outfielders
Grady Sizemore
Shin-Soo Choo
Michael Brantley
Ryan Spilborghs
Ezequiel Carrera

Infielders
Asdrubal Cabrera
Carlos Santana
Casey Kotchmann
Jason Kipnis
Lonnie Chisenhall
Jack Hannahan
Lou Marson

Designated Hitter
Travis Hafner

Pitchers
Justin Masterson
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Tomlin
Derek Lowe
Kevin Slowey

Chris Perez
Rafael Perez
Tony Sipp
Vinnie Pestano
Joe Smith
Jeremy Accardo
Dan Wheeler/Chris Ray
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby pup » Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:01 pm

Jumbo wrote:Of all the items you list...

pup wrote:If Ubaldo is 2010
If Choo is 2010


...these are the two that really matter.

BTW: If everything on your list actually "hits" - the Indians win 100 games. They won't, so they won't. They only need "enough" of them, of which two must be Ubaldo and Choo.


I say they need half to be a .500 club.

Ubaldo can be lights out, but if the infield cannot hit (besides Asdrubal), he ain't winning. The infield can hit their asses off, but if the OF/DH blow. And of course there is the rest of the rotation after the two guys with ML stuff.

Ubaldo + Masterson can make up for a lot of other areas, but they still need a productive year out of the lineup. If Carlos/Asdrubal/Choo are "likely" and Kotchman/Brantley/Grady are "doubtful"...you need 2 of the 3 Kipnis/Chiz/Pronk to be very good. And that gets you an average offense, IMO.

And yes, that is a bare bones non-scientific way to assess the offense, but the point is in there.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Jumbo » Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:14 pm

pup wrote:I say they need half to be a .500 club.


Sure. Half get you to .500, three-quarters compete for the division, and all of them means legitimate WS contender.

Ubaldo + Masterson can make up for a lot of other areas, but they still need a productive year out of the lineup. If Carlos/Asdrubal/Choo are "likely" and Kotchman/Brantley/Grady are "doubtful"...you need 2 of the 3 Kipnis/Chiz/Pronk to be very good. And that gets you an average offense, IMO.

And yes, that is a bare bones non-scientific way to assess the offense, but the point is in there.


Well then, how about a scientific (OK, psuedo-scientific) way of projecting the team? Good and bad Wins Above Replacement (WAR) seasons is a straightforward way to compare upsides and downsides. Also, just to keep things simple, I'm going to ignore defense and the bullpen, because your list just looks at offense and the starting rotation. If you think the bullpen is a strength (which it should be), the projected win totals should be even higher.

Let's look at some possibilities. People who hate stats can ignore this.

If Ubaldo is 2010
2010: 7.2 WAR
2011: 1.4 WAR across Colorado and Cleveland

If Masterson can still get hooks out
2011: 4.1 WAR.
2010: -.7 WAR

If Tomlin recovers
2011: 1.9 WAR before injury (downside)
Project 2.5 WAR as a full-season upside.

If Lowe figured out where to part the Barb-o-sil
2008: 3.6
2011: -.3

If Garland can get healthy enough to be able to hold a pen long enough to sign the contract
2010: 1.7
Injured: Zero.

If Choo is 2010
2010: 5.3
2011: 1.2

If Grady is 2006

2006: 6.5
2011: .6

If Pronk is juicing
2006: 5.9
2011: 1.4

If Chiz is young Thome
Thome 1994 (strike-shortened age 23 season): 2.3
Chiz 2011: .6

If Kipnis is Kent (Giant version)
Kent 1998 (Giants): 5.6
Kent 1996 (Indians): .2

If Santana doesn't use a guitar at the dish
2011: 4.2
2010: 2.2

If Kotchman isn't Kotchman
2011: 3.2
2010: -1.3.

If Brantley isn't Alex Cole w/out the speed
Cole 1992: -.3.
Lofton 1992: 3.9.

So, take your pick of the results above, and add them to a "replacement team" (about 45 wins).

High end (everything goes right): 45 + 56 = 101 wins.
Low end (everything goes wrong): 45 + 7 = 52 wins.

So there you go. The Indians will win somewhere between 52 and 101 games next season. For what it's worth, I think Santana and Chisenhall could do better than their "upside" seasons listed above, but you're not going to get much more out of the rest of the team.

Summary, equally relevant with stats or without them: Not everything has to go right for the Indians to win. But a lot of things do: just knocking out the upside seasons from Sizemore and Pronk (both of which happened six years ago) means that everything else still has to go right for the Indians to get into the high 80s.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby pup » Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:12 pm

So what you saying is my 5 minute stat less observation is pretty dead on to what took some stat head 6 super computers and 4 assistants 12 years to decipher?

Now you know why I am:

Jumbo wrote:People who hate stats can ignore this.
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Re: Project the opening day 25 man roster

Unread postby Jumbo » Wed Feb 22, 2012 2:39 pm

pup wrote:So what you saying is my 5 minute stat less observation is pretty dead on to what took some stat head 6 super computers and 4 assistants 12 years to decipher?


I'm not tryint go turn this into a !STATS! thread, I just wanted to provide a "what to look for" kind of baseline for saying that not everything needs to go right.
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