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Cleveland Indians & MLB

Diamond Mind Projections

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Diamond Mind Projections

Unread postby Jumbo » Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:12 pm

In what's become a yearly exercise, Diamond Mind projections have been posted on a Yankees blog.

These provide some interesting bits of information among all the other publication predictions out there, but come with a number of important caveats in case you aren't previously familiar with these projections:

1) Obviously, these are just projections - the season is played 1000 times on the computer, but only once in reality. As the writer admits, the system had the White Sox with 79 wins in 2005 and the Tigers with 80 in 2006.

2) The results that come out are only as good as the projections that go in, but with 4 projection systems available the biases might even out.

3) Because the W-L records are averaged out, the results are closer to the midpoint (especially across the league) than they will be in reality. Note that the average record for winning the division (whichever team it is) is always higher than the average record for the team that finished "first" over the multiple seasons.

The Indians summary:

The 4 different systems have the Indians finishing, generally, between first and third in the division and averaging between about 86 and 92 wins.

Out of 4000 seasons across the 4 systems, the Indians won, on average, about 88 games. Max wins: 111, Min wins: 67. Wins within one standard deviation: 82-96. Won the division 32.5% of the time, wild card 12.2% of the time. (All of this sounds about right to me.)

Finally, the pie charts at the bottom of the post are interesting. According to the results, the Indians, Tigers and Twins each have about a 1/3 chance of winning the divison, leaving the White Sox and Royals out in the cold. Personally, I think this underrates the White Sox and overrates the Twins (even before Mauer's injury) - relying on Sidney Ponson as your #4 starter doesn't inspire with confidence.
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Unread postby StewieG » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:27 am

That sounds about right. I'd guess between 86 and 94 wins, depending on a couple key breaks, and injuries. A solid start is key. If we get off to a solid start, I like our chances to at least be in the mix at the end. If it's another bad April, I don't think we have enough to overcome the rest of the division. It wouldn't be impossible, but it would be really tough.
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