Adam Miller

[consigliere]

Wow. 5 more scoreless innings today. That is 14 inning pitched this spring without giving up a run. Gee, ya think he wants to get here sooner than later? Man, if we did not have Carmona, he'd be in line to start the season with us.

[pup]

So trade Byrd today. Use that cash to resign CC. Let's play ball.

[Dozen]

So trade Byrd today. Use that cash to resign CC. Let's play ball.

Umm who want him at that salary? Just cut his ass and bring the kid up. If Carmona and Miller both started in the rotation this year, Miller would do much better so saying Carmona is ahead of him is.....well it is the same organization that had Juan Gone ahead of Sizemore so nevermind

[pup]

Umm who want him at that salary?

His salary is not all that bad, considering some of teh cabbage thrown about this winter. Most teams without the Indians SP talent would really like to have Byrd on a 1-year deal. Trade him to Arizona for Jorge Julio.

[Dozen]

Im down

[consigliere]

You can't cut Byrd. This isn't the NFL where contracts are not guaranteed. Byrd's salary is on the books for $7.25M this year, even if we cut him.

That's almost 1/8 the payroll, they aren't eating that.

Byrd actually would be attractive to a team in a trade since he is in the last year of his contract, only makes $7.25M and has a club option for next year. Many teams would jump at the chance to get him by mid-season, as a lot of teams are fine with .500 pitchers and around 4.00 ERAs.

Way too early to dump Byrd though. I am hardly his biggest fan, but you have to let the season play out. You start dumping guys now, before you even know how they will perform, and you are asking for trouble. What happens if you dump Byrd and then Miller and Carmona struggle? Or Cliff Lee is out longer than expected?

I believe Miller needs a half season in Triple-A, and after that i want him here. Might be the guy we insert if Byrd in fact is traded.....heck, there is the possibility that by mid-season both Byrd and Westbrook are traded and Carmona and Miller are in the rotation....but I wouldn't rush to get to that point yet. See how Byrd performs early, and also let Miller finish himself off at Buffalo. Remember, Miller is still on sort of a strict pitch count and the org is carefully watching him. By mid-season, the restraints should be off.

[Dozen]

You can't cut Byrd. This isn't the NFL where contracts are not guaranteed. Byrd's salary is on the books for $7.25M this year, even if we cut him

I realize this T, my point was more towards holding young prospects down for overpaid vets (i.e. Juan Gone -Sizemore) Alot of people wanted Grady to go back to buffalo back in '05. Just saying, Put Byrd in the Bully or trade him. I dont need half a season to tell ya he's average at best.

[leadpipe]

The days of Paul Byrd having a 4.00 ERA are over. He's back in the American league now, blah blah, blah. So, they can eat salary and get better, or they can eat salary and not do any worse or they can let the guy pitch and have a guy who is at the end of the line put up a very marginal season similiar to last year WITHOUT EATING SALARY. I have an idea which way they will go. This, incidentally was not a good signing.

[pup]

Way too early to dump Byrd though. I am hardly his biggest fan, but you have to let the season play out. You start dumping guys now, before you even know how they will perform, and you are asking for trouble. What happens if you dump Byrd and then Miller and Carmona struggle? Or Cliff Lee is out longer than expected?

That is right...you believe this team, with a marginal at best off season is ready to overtake the Sox and Tigers because of some made up theory that shows they should have won 88 games last year.

Let's hold on to Byrd so he can struggle in April/May before we cut bait on him, get very little in return and trade him for a bag of balls, then we can bring up a highly touted prospect who is better and spend next offseason waiting for Shapiro to address this teams needs and wonder what could have happened if we just went with the talent instead of the veterand who make money.

Deja vu all over again.

[Dozen]

That is right...you believe this team, with a marginal at best off season is ready to overtake the Sox and Tigers because of some made up theory that shows they should have won 88 games last year.

Pup, I agree 1000%

[furls]

Oh, come on, everyone knows the pythag is the greatest single statistical device ever!

[bookelly]

I'd like to see how his new splitter works against left-handers before I cut him loose. Byrd's a gamer...I watched him go lights-out against the Yankees in the post-season a couple years back.

But I do agree that Miller-time is around the corner...just needs to graduate finishing school.

[ramllov]

Here is a prediction for you.

Big if, IF Westbrook is signed an extention. If Lee is healthy and Carmona does well for Lee, Bryd could be a trade candidate.

Bryd needs to pitch well and develop a market for his talent.

Mid-May could be a time to determine what is missing on the Indians team. If they trade Bryd for the full value of his contract both money wise as well as talent wise.

With Lee hurt Bryd will be pitching as the third starter on a premier starting staff in Major League Baseball. The idea of him getting off to a good start can only increase his market value.

When the Indians have played 40 to 50 games, it should be obvious what is working and what is not working. The same could be said for the other major league clubs.

How attractive is Bryd. He is a control pitcher who has be a winning pitcher for a long time. He is not a great pitcher, but he is a good starting pitcher. He would be a number three or four starter on many major league teams. So, if he starts well, he will be attractive.

I believe when he is traded his option for 2008 goes with him. If he is a good pitcher, that contract number is a great number in the current market, especially for 2008.

I agree on keeping Miller in AAA for 1/2 the season, for seasoning. He has great stuff. He can develop the mental part of the game in AAA and be prepared for the MLB. He should come up in late July or early August.

[leadpipe]

If Westbrook is signed to an extension
If Lee is healthy
If Carmona pitches well
If Byrd pitches well

If my aunt had balls.....

If all those things happen, great. Odds of them happening are slim. If you gave every other team in the leagues 4 if's that come thru, you've got a hell of a league. That's generally not the case. The best teams have fewer if's.

Byrd will have little trade value. Enormous contract and he WAS a good pitcher. He's not young, back in the American league. If he is a third starter it's not a premier staff. Also, the big market teams that might overspend and can eat that contract aren't doing it in April or May. And, if for some godforsaken reason the guy pitches well for four months the Tribe will be so in the thick of things they won't deal him anyway.

[consigliere]

Byrd will have little trade value. Enormous contract and he WAS a good pitcher. He's not young, back in the American league. If he is a third starter it's not a premier staff. Also, the big market teams that might overspend and can eat that contract aren't doing it in April or May. And, if for some godforsaken reason the guy pitches well for four months the Tribe will be so in the thick of things they won't deal him anyway.

If Byrd pitches .500 ball with an ERA around 4.00, he is very attractive in a trade come July. He is exactly the type of pitcher that goes in those July deadline deals. Also, he is realtively cheap for what he produces ($7.25M) AND he has a club option which might be attractive to a team if they wanted him beyond this year.

Not saying we are going to get the return we got for Colon, but we could get a nice piece for the ML squad or a couple high end guys close to ML ready if the intent was to just dump him to create space for Carmona/Miller.

[leadpipe]

Again, a key if. The days of Paul Byrd at 4.00 are over. He'll have enormous trade value if he's at 2.00 at the break. That ain't happening either.

And Consig, relatively cheap for what he produces? Exactly what did he produce for the Tribe last year for the money they paid him. This is 2007. You aren't getting over 7 million dollars worth of value out of Paul Byrd. This is the main point at the beginning of the thread, that is, why pay Byrd over 7 mil when you can get the same production from a young pitcher for less money, and, maybe you even do better.

Lastly, some may be excited about his "new pitch". Man, I hope it works, however, guys fooling around with such things signals the end of the line more than anything else.

[consigliere]

I don't think it is that far out of whack to expect Byrd to be a .500 pitcher and an ERA in the 3.75-4.50 range. Marcels projects him to go 10-9 with a 4.74 ERA, although I am unsure what PECOTA projected.

Don't get my wrong, I am not saying Byrd is all that. All I am saying, is pitchers like him are EXACTLY what gets dealt come July. Players with proven success that are good #4-#5 starters to help a team in the stretch run....don't cost hellijack (Byrd's pro-rated salary by then will only be about $4M for a team to pick up for a pennant run).....and he is in the last year of his deal (with a bonus to a team where they can decide to keep him another year on their own teams because of his club option).

It would not surprise me the least bit to see Byrd dealt mid-season. Heck, even Westbrook could be dealt if the Indians feel that they cannot re-sign him. Westbrook may actually be a nice card to play mid-season to where the Indians could actually get a lot in return for him, even if he is pending FA. The Indians could potentially get a ML player at a position of need (closer?) for him.

[jfiling]

PECOTA apparently projects Byrd with a mean ERA of 4.86.

Got it here.

[consigliere]

Gotcha, thanks.

BTW, saw Adam Miller hit 100 MPH on the gun in yesterday's Triple-A game.

[swerb]

Just got Adam Miller in my main fantasy baseball league this morning, an auction AL only keeper league, for $4.

Which means I have Adam Miller ...

2007 - $4
2008 - $4
2009 - $6
2010 - $9
2011 - $13
21012 - $18

[Steve Buffum]

21012 - $18

Dude, that's a bad bet. Even Nolan Ryan retired by before he even turned 15000.

[consigliere]

From a BA pay article today, here are some comments on Miller from a scout:

"His fastball was up to 97 (mph) and he throws it real easy from a three-quarters motion with easy stride. He just looks real confident and comfortable out there. Fastball and slider are the two main pitches.

"His slider’s been anywhere from 85 (mph) to 89 and that’s just an out pitch—probably grades as a 65 (on the 20-80 scouting scale). His fastball’s been anywhere from 92 (mph) to 97 . . . The third pitch is the changeup and I’ve only seen a few of them. You could still see that’s the final weapon—he’s still trying to get consistent feel for it.

"But I thought they were all right. I thought (the changeup) was average now and has a chance to be slightly above average.

"He had good control and command—very, very poised. When I saw him he was throwing on a Saturday in front of a sold-out crowd against a big league lineup, so yeah, he was very composed. He just looked like a guy who could step in right now and give you a chance to win. I haven’t seen (Fausto) Carmona, but it’d be hard for me to believe that he’s any more ready than Miller.

"I just think Miller is a real special talent . . . great body . . . kind of like Kevin Brown. He’s durable, he’s got that fastball/slider combo—and it’s a heavy fastball. He’ll just kind of cruise along at 93-94, but when he needs it he can grab 97.

"I think he could be a No. 1 starter. I haven’t seen many guys better than him . . . maybe (Tigers righthander Jeremy) Bonderman. And Miller and Bonderman are similar. Bonderman’s a little bigger and stronger and he’s got a better changeup, but I think he’s going to be one of the best young pitchers in the game for a long time. I’d love to have him."

[pup]

kind of like Kevin Brown. He’s durable

I went back and looked, and Kevin Brown was much more durable than I remembered, so the roll the eyes doesn't really fit.

Funny how a couple of bad years late make you forget sometimes how good someone was the rest of their career.

[docstank]

Just noticed the newest registered member on Theclevelandfan is listed as AdamMiller, I was just curious if that was the flame thrower we are all looking foreword to watching for years to come?

[AdamMiller]

I wish

[consigliere]

You just know I was going to mention something Pup....but I let it slide as I knew you'd come to your senses.

But yeah, I too was sort of alarmed with the Kevin Brown comp as yes it is amazing how recent performance and durability issues cloud what the guy did his entire career. Guy was a rock in the rotation up until a few years ago.

And Stank, I don't believe that is Adam Miller who signed up. I've come across minor league guys on-line in the past, but they obviously go by aliases and screen names that have nothing to do with their real name.

[docstank]

That is what I figured, but I thought it would not hurt to ask. How cool would that be to get some insider info.
stank

[pup]

You just know I was going to mention something Pup....but I let it slide as I knew you'd come to your senses

If you could only convince me Shapiro is a better than average GM, then we might have something