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Hey Consig...

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Hey Consig...

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Mar 14, 2007 8:13 pm

..are you enjoying the track meet down there. Teams are stealing bases against the Tribe like...well, like they know Victor Martinez is catching. Four for the Mets yesterday. Someone explain to me again how he got the catching job back?
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Unread postby pup » Wed Mar 14, 2007 10:30 pm

So we can have an athletic Casey Blake at first base.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Mar 15, 2007 2:03 am

The stolen bases don't concern me at all. Victor looks good in camp, and some of those stolen bases he gave up to the Mets the other day were to Jose Reyes. He makes a lot of catchers look bad. Glad toi see Victor getting some opps in camp with teams trying to steal.

He is what he is. An offensive catcher. The stolen bases are minimal when compared to the offense he provides and the solid defense and game calling behind he plate. The stolen bases we give up are frustrating, but hardly impact the outcome of games.
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Unread postby Dozen » Thu Mar 15, 2007 7:23 am

Pup wrote:So we can have an athletic Casey Blake at first base.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Unread postby pup » Thu Mar 15, 2007 8:02 am

The stolen bases we give up are frustrating, but hardly impact the outcome of games.


Then why do teams steal bases? When a team is as pathetic as we are in one run games, maybe we need to pay closer attention to these things that don't impact games.
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Unread postby Guest » Thu Mar 15, 2007 8:55 am

It doesnt impact spring training games, but it sure will hurt come regular season.
It is a HUGE concern.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Mar 15, 2007 1:28 pm

Pup wrote:
The stolen bases we give up are frustrating, but hardly impact the outcome of games.


Then why do teams steal bases? When a team is as pathetic as we are in one run games, maybe we need to pay closer attention to these things that don't impact games.


I don't have the article handy, by research has shown that the stolen base has very little impact on games.

Again, it is frustrating at times with the stolen bases, but is something I can live with from my catcher if he is hitting .300-20-90. If Victor was Pudge behind the plate but Einar Diaz at the plate, fans would complain about the poor offense. Victor is a good defender and an excellent offensive catcher, and his one problem is throwing out runners which he has been a tick below average at over the years.
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Unread postby pup » Thu Mar 15, 2007 4:02 pm

I don't have the article handy, by research has shown that the stolen base has very little impact on games.


Ask the 2004 Red Sox or the 2005 White Sox. I believe the Red Sox won a game 7 because of a stolen base. I believe that White Sox team used the SB as a major offensive weapon all year.

The stats and research show that SB's might not mean a hill of beans over the course of 162 games. So I won't argue that. If I wanted to, I could probably show that walks allowed didn't make all that big of a difference over 162 games as well, as long as you do other things well.

When a SB does matter is on an individual game basis. A lot of games are won and lost every year by taking an extra base, however you do it. When you analyze numbers over 162 games and 1000 attempts, they will look more trivial. Not to mention, most teams have players that steal bases, just to steal them. When used properly, I can assure you, they are significant, in an individual game.

When this team needs to beat the White Sox in September, you can bet their ability to steal a base will be a huge factor. It might not matter if it is Victor or Kelly catching if it is Posednick running. It would make a difference though in Jermaine Dye running or not running, and that can come back and bite you in the ass.
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Unread postby bookelly » Thu Mar 15, 2007 7:28 pm

I saw some sabermetric analysis once (sorry, long time ago...no linky) that in order to be effective your team needs to steal bases at an 80% clip. To put it another way, getting caught stealing is one of the worst things for your offense. It totally kills scoring opportunities. Especially in the AL.

The hit and run is a far more effective ploy, as it puts pressure on opposing defenses. I think allot of time you'll see what appears to be a SB is actually a missed hit and run (except with speed demons like Reyes, etc.)

If Victor and co. can just throw out more than 20% of base-stealers then statistically he'll be doing his job.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Mar 15, 2007 11:59 pm

Most of the sabermetrics concerning the stolen base center around the point that you hurt yourself more by getting caught then you gain by stealing them. I would agree with that. I would also clarify you are giving something up if you aren't catching anyone. Saying it doesn't matter is misguided, and, does come into effect in the post season.

That being said, if we set that argument aside for a second. I'm still waiting for the answer to a question I've posed a few times. If Victor Martinez was deemed unfit to catch for the Indians midway thru last year (which he was) what did he do to earn his job back? And, if they felt the negative impact, what makes them think it will just go away?

Catching defense is important. It just is.

Lastly, the whole "all Victor needs to do is throw out 20%" camp. What makes you think this will happen? All Jason Johnson had to do is win 25 games last year and the Tribe would have made the playoffs. What happens most of the time is going to happen again, wishing for what happens some of the time can get you in trouble.
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Unread postby swerb » Fri Mar 16, 2007 9:45 am

Lead Pipe wrote:Most of the sabermetrics concerning the stolen base center around the point that you hurt yourself more by getting caught then you gain by stealing them. I would agree with that. I would also clarify you are giving something up if you aren't catching anyone. Saying it doesn't matter is misguided, and, does come into effect in the post season.

That being said, if we set that argument aside for a second. I'm still waiting for the answer to a question I've posed a few times. If Victor Martinez was deemed unfit to catch for the Indians midway thru last year (which he was) what did he do to earn his job back? And, if they felt the negative impact, what makes them think it will just go away?

Catching defense is important. It just is.

Lastly, the whole "all Victor needs to do is throw out 20%" camp. What makes you think this will happen? All Jason Johnson had to do is win 25 games last year and the Tribe would have made the playoffs. What happens most of the time is going to happen again, wishing for what happens some of the time can get you in trouble.

Great point Pipe. Honestly, I think Shapiro and Consig are of like mind. They just don't give a shit because he hits .300 with 90 Ribs.

One thing you hear people talk about all the time is the fact that Victor threw out 22% after June 15 after the horrible start. That's a misleading stat. The entire league started running on Victor after the start, including many slower players that normally don't attempt to steal.
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Unread postby bookelly » Fri Mar 16, 2007 8:39 pm

I wasn't attempting to gloss over the weakness' in V-Marts game. I just think that SB's are one of the most overated part of the game. V-mart is there to hit, and hit he does. I'll take 20% CS and .314 Avg. any day.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sat Mar 17, 2007 5:42 pm

Pup wrote:Ask the 2004 Red Sox or the 2005 White Sox. I believe the Red Sox won a game 7 because of a stolen base. I believe that White Sox team used the SB as a major offensive weapon all year.


And those two teams were one of the worst in both of their WS winning seasons at throwing out runners. Varitek and AJ were both arouns 21-22% each year.

Lead Pipe wrote:Lastly, the whole "all Victor needs to do is throw out 20%" camp. What makes you think this will happen? All Jason Johnson had to do is win 25 games last year and the Tribe would have made the playoffs. What happens most of the time is going to happen again, wishing for what happens some of the time can get you in trouble.


Of course, you completely throw out the window Martinez being able to throw out 22-25% of base runners in 2004 and 2005. Martinez has thrown out 20% of more most of his time here except for the first half of 2006. Should a half a season in 2006 carry that much more weight than his two full seasons in 2004 and 2005 and the second half of 2006 when he DID throw out over 22%? Maybe the question should be the other way around where why you think this WILL NOT happen.

Again, it is frustrating with all the stolen bases....and it does have an affect on games at times. But I think the fans are grossly over-reacting to it. Even with the poor throw out percentage, he was rated as the 2nd most important catcher in baseball last year who contributed the most to his teams wins.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Mar 17, 2007 11:25 pm

I've said my peace, we'll see what happens, but, can anyone answer my question?
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Unread postby furls » Sun Mar 18, 2007 12:51 am

Great point Pipe. Honestly, I think Shapiro and Consig are of like mind. They just don't give a shit because he hits .300 with 90 Ribs.

One thing you hear people talk about all the time is the fact that Victor threw out 22% after June 15 after the horrible start. That's a misleading stat. The entire league started running on Victor after the start, including many slower players that normally don't attempt to steal.


I remember thinking last year, after Jeff Conine stole a base on him, that we had reached a whole new level in absurdity.

If V-Mart moves to first and becomes the best defensive 1st basemen in the majors (with his BA and RBIs and HR), he is merely just average. It is an offensive position, but if they can stick him behind the plate he is a top five catcher (offensively). I guess the tribe needs to make up for its 14 platoon players somewhere.

I hope to god he can throw someone out this year. I just paid 160.00 for MLB Xtra Innings so I could watch all the tribe games this year.
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Unread postby pup » Sun Mar 18, 2007 9:04 pm

If V-Mart moves to first and becomes the best defensive 1st basemen in the majors (with his BA and RBIs and HR), he is merely just average. It is an offensive position, but if they can stick him behind the plate he is a top five catcher (offensively). I guess the tribe needs to make up for its 14 platoon players somewhere


But we are still stronger at 1st base than we would be with Casey Blake, no?
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Unread postby furls » Sun Mar 18, 2007 10:56 pm

I guess, but a .310, 15 HR, 90 RBI first baseman is not exactly ideal for the position. The Tribe has a real problem with V-Mart. He is either a bad ass hitting catcher (and defensive liability) or an average 1B. The question is which do you want?

Also if you put V-Mart at first, you insert Kelly Shoppach into the line up in Blake/Garko's place. So now, do you want Kelly Shoppach in the line up (and two catchers on the basepaths) in exchange for the defensive upgrade? I am not sure, I am leaning towards no, but I could be persuaded. I am just hoping that Garko will be good enough that he will make this a moot discussion. Look at me, the eternal optimist!
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Unread postby consigliere » Sun Mar 18, 2007 11:30 pm

Furls wrote:Also if you put V-Mart at first, you insert Kelly Shoppach into the line up in Blake/Garko's place. So now, do you want Kelly Shoppach in the line up (and two catchers on the basepaths) in exchange for the defensive upgrade?


Bingo.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Mar 19, 2007 12:08 am

Consigliere wrote:Also if you put V-Mart at first, you insert Kelly Shoppach into the line up in Blake/Garko's place. So now, do you want Kelly Shoppach in the line up (and two catchers on the basepaths) in exchange for the defensive upgrade?


Bingo.

I'm not saying there is a better option. I'm saying it's a problem.
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Unread postby consigliere » Mon Mar 19, 2007 12:53 am

I agree it is a problem. Although, I still believe it is a minor one.

Look, Victor has a negative effect on the team when it comes to shutting down a running game. But, overall, Victor contributes more to this team winning than any other catcher in baseball not named Joe Mauer. What gets subtracted with Vic's poor throwing is more than made up for with his excellent offense.

The catchers out there that are better at him throwing out runners, most of them can't hit a lick so they affect their team negatively in that manner.

I'm willing to play this season out, see what happens with Vic, and see if he can get back to a respectable 22-25% level with throwing out runners. If he struggles again this season, and his poor throwing lead to several losses, at season's end I may change my stance on him. Although, if that is the case, the org will probably make a change by then anyway. :mrgreen:
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Unread postby pup » Mon Mar 19, 2007 7:53 am

Also if you put V-Mart at first, you insert Kelly Shoppach into the line up in Blake/Garko's place. So now, do you want Kelly Shoppach in the line up (and two catchers on the basepaths) in exchange for the defensive upgrade? I am not sure, I am leaning towards no, but I could be persuaded.


That is exactly what should happen. Shoppach is a huge upgrade defensively over Victor, and MAYBE a slight downgrade from Blake offensively.

If the reason to keep Victor behind the plate is because he is not a plus hitting first baseman, then how do you explain having a negative hitting first baseman in Blake. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Victor at first, Kelly Catching > Blake at first and Victor catching.
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