Hoynes: Indians A Fourth Place Team

[swerb]

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/plaindea ... xml&coll=2

How the AL Central shapes up

Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Paul Hoynes
Plain Dealer Reporter
1. DETROIT TIGERS

2006 record: 95-67.

Best-case scenario: Gary Sheffield’s surgically repaired left wrist is healed and the top pitching staff in the league — which set a World Series record with five errors — takes fielding practice every day.

Worst-case scenario: After last year’s dream season, reality sets in. The extra innings pitched by AL Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander and hardthrowing Joel Zumaya while reaching the World Series slow them down this year.

Additions: DH-OF Gary Sheffield, RHP Jose Mesa, 1B Sean Casey (who was re-signed), OF Timo Perez and LHP Edward Campusano.

Departures: LHP Jamie Walker, OF-DH Alexis Gomez, OF-DH Matt Stairs, RHP Troy Percival (retired).

Biggest question: Did the Tigers really have to give Sheffield, 38, a two-year, $28 million extension?

2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

2006 record: 90-72.

Best-case scenario: Knuckleballer Charlie Haegar or Gavin Floyd makes the trades of right-handers Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy inconsequential. Darin Erstad beats the odds and proves to be a solid replacement for left fielder Scott Podsednik, recovering from a hernia.

Worst-case scenario: New relievers Andrew Sisco and David Aardsma can’t turn around the bullpen, while shortstop Juan Uribe is distracted by his involvement in an off-season shooting incident in the Dominican Republic.

Additions: LHP Andrew Sisco, RHP Gavin Floyd, LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP David Aardsma, C Toby Hall, RHP Jacob Rasner, RHP Nick Masset, LHP John Danks and OF Darin Erstad.

Departures: RHP Freddy Garcia, RHP Brandon McCarthy, LHP Neal Cotts, RHP David Riske, 1B Ross Gload.

Biggest question: Whatever happened to Ozzie Ball, the offense that took Chicago to the World Series title in 2005?

3. MINNESOTA TWINS

2006 record: 96-66.

Best-case scenario: The Twins successfully fill the two holes in their starting rotation, caused by Francisco Liriano’s elbow injury and Brad Radke’s retirement, with a combination of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Scott Baker, Matt Garza or Matt Guerrier.

Worst-case scenario: This year the Twins don’t have the Cy Young winner (Johan Santana), MVP (Justin Morneau) and the batting champion (Joe Mauer).

Key additions: RHP Sidney Ponson, RHP Ramon Ortiz, LHP Randy Choate, LHP Mike Venafro, 3B Jeff Cirillo and LFDH Rondell White (who re-signed).

Key losses: RHP Brad Radke, RHP Willie Eyre, OF Shannon Stewart and DH Phil Nevin.

Biggest question: The Twins had the best bullpen in the AL last year, but how effective will it be if General Manager Terry Ryan and manager Ron Gardenhire can’t get the rotation working properly?

4. INDIANS

2006 record: 78-84.

Best-case scenario: The new bullpen converts 70 percent of its saves, compared to 51 percent last year. The leftand right-field platoons of David Dellucci and Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake and Trot Nixon, respectively, prove productive.

Worst-case scenario: No true closer emerges from the spring-training competition between Keith Foulke and Joe Borowski.

Key additions: RHP Keith Foulke, RHP Joe Borowski, RHP Roberto Hernandez, LHP Aaron Fultz, OF Trot Nixon, OF David Dellucci and 2B Josh Barfield.

Key losses: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, RHP Andrew Brown, 3B Aaron Boone.

Biggest question: How long will it be before Ryan Garko is given the starting job at first base?

5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

2006 record: 62-100.

Best-case scenario: Gil Meche turns out to be worth every penny of the fiveyear, $51 million contract he signed with the Royals. Meche’s career record is 55-44.

Worst-case scenario: New closer Octavio Dotel still isn’t completely recovered from the Tommy John surgery that limited him to 10 innings last season. The Royals have alternatives, but not with Dotel’s track record.

Key acquisitions: RHP Gil Meche, RHP Octavio Dotel, 1B Ross Gload, RHP David Riske, RHP John Bale, RHP Ken Ray, RHP Brian Bannister, C Jason LaRue and SS Alex S. Gonzalez.

Key losses: LHP Andrew Sisco, RHP Ambiorix Burgos, RHP Runelvys Hernandez, 1B Doug Mientkiewicz, RHP Esteban Yan, C Paul Bako and INF Paul Keppinger.

Biggest question: When do the Royals promote third baseman Alex Gordon, who hit .325 with 25 homers and 100 RBI last year at Class AA Wichita?

[Dozen]

Key losses: 3B Aaron Boone.

How is that a key loss?

[consigliere]

I recall one of Hoynes e-mails in the paper a week or so back where he kept harping on them being a 4th place team....he mentioned that him saying they are a 4th place team isn't a bad thing but more because of the division. He said he thinks they'll win 88 games, good for 4th place.

This is definitely going to be a war in this division this year.

[furls]

Key losses: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, RHP Andrew Brown, 3B Aaron Boone.

That statement alone tells me where I should file this prediction.

[Dozen]

LoL Furls, I thought the same thing. The central is gonna be tough

[papacass]

Actually, I think Hoynes is just listing the teams in order of their finish last year. I was caught off-guard initially as well until I realized that.

Truth be told, the only sure thing in the Central this year is that the Royals are going to finish in last place. The other four teams could finish anywhere between first and fourth.

Though if I had to handicap the race now, I'd probably place the Indians third behind the the Tigers and White Sox and ahead of the Twins. But any way you slice it, it's probably going to be a close race that won't be decided until the last few days of the season. The teams are very evenly-matched. The Indians have as good of a chance as any of walking away with the division title.

[papacass]

By the by, does anybody else think the Plain Dealer is commanding their beat reporters to be more antagonistic when it comes to covering the teams?

Branson Wright is very quick to heap praise on the Pistons and Bulls, but all he ever seems to do is give the Cavs sparse, lukewarm praise. Usually, he's pretty critical, like most of the national media.

We all know about Tony Grossi, who apparently thinks he's an assistant GM of the Browns.

Now, Paul Hoynes is apparently going to start the season off with a rock-bottom Indians forecast while gushing about the Tigers, White Sox and Twins.

On top of that, if you've read Bill Livingston and Bud Shaw recently, their columns almost come off as flippant. Their putdowns of Cleveland teams and players are becoming almost smart-ass.

Is it a case of familiarity breeding contempt, journalistic objectivity gone awry, or in the wake of losing Roger Brown, is the PD worried about going soft with their coverage?

[leadpipe]

Technically losing Boone is a key loss. If they are going to get better they needed to lose him. Incidentally, when you ink a guy who had one good HALF year to his credit, coming off a MAJOR injury, to ha big contract, little value is pretty much what you get.

[Mr. MacPhisto]

There was no truly "key" loss at 3B. While I liked Kouzmanoff and his potential, he wasn't exactly a cornerstone last year. Listing Boone as a key loss is a joke; should be listed under "net gain".

I can understand the fourth place predictions. The Tigers, White Sox, Twins, and Indians should all be very good this season. I don't think there is a better division in baseball right now. Any one of those teams could finish in fourth place.

We'll see who's standing after 162 games. Hopefully the AL Central will represent the American League in the World Series for the third straight year. That would at least keep the Yankees out again. The way I see it, it's either our turn or Minnesota's.

[consigliere]

I'm very upset. Hoynes neglected to point out our true key loss......Ramon Vazquez.

[leadpipe]

Key people in the organization felt he was better than Phillips. Christ.

[StewieG]

Honestly, I think it'll be between us and Detroit for the division this year. I think Chicago got weaker, and Minnesota won't be the same without Liriano for half the year (and their bullpen will wear out by August).

Detroit's pitching staff will be interesting to watch. They all had great years last year, and they all logged a ton of innings. I didn't look it up, but I'd be willing to bet that at least 3 of their starters pitched the most innings in their careers, by a fairly significant margin. Will Sheffield be able to perform to his standards at his age and coming off a wrist injury?

And our big question is the bullpen. Will it suck again? If it does, we'll be in 4th place. If it doesn't, I think we have a great shot at winning the division. We're as talented as any other team. There's absolutely no reason to think we can't win it. I can see anywhere from 1st to 4th place, and none of those positions would surprise me. But I'm predicting 1st or 2nd place.

[leadpipe]

They logged the most innings in their careers because A. Most have only been in the league a couple years and B. They are transitionong from prospects to solid if not better major league pitchers. This is saying a lot when yoy look at the history of pitching prospects. I agree with what has been said above concerning the strength of the division, but the Tribe is going to need to go a long way to prove to me they can pitch with Detroit. The Tribe's bullpen has about 5 question marks, Detroit has none.

[DGeneral]

By the by, does anybody else think the Plain Dealer is commanding their beat reporters to be more antagonistic when it comes to covering the teams?

Branson Wright is very quick to heap praise on the Pistons and Bulls, but all he ever seems to do is give the Cavs sparse, lukewarm praise. Usually, he's pretty critical, like most of the national media.

We all know about Tony Grossi, who apparently thinks he's an assistant GM of the Browns.

Now, Paul Hoynes is apparently going to start the season off with a rock-bottom Indians forecast while gushing about the Tigers, White Sox and Twins.

On top of that, if you've read Bill Livingston and Bud Shaw recently, their columns almost come off as flippant. Their putdowns of Cleveland teams and players are becoming almost smart-ass.

Is it a case of familiarity breeding contempt, journalistic objectivity gone awry, or in the wake of losing Roger Brown, is the PD worried about going soft with their coverage?

The PD has some credibility with it's beat writer and columnists not being shills for every pro franchise in town. Livingston and Shaw tend to be on the cheap shot artist side however when they load their gun and fire, they usually have basis for their criticism.

It's the nature of journalism today to tear apart the status quo. I don' have much sympathy for these ownership and players, they are highly compensated and usually don't care about their customers