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The return on trading CC and JW?

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The return on trading CC and JW?

Unread postby British_Pharaoh » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:33 pm

what we get in return from trading these 2 could really set this team on its way for the coming seasons

whether it be rock solid young pitching or a power hitting OFer.

Fact is I agree with the article from earlier on about how the loss of CC will not hurt as much as the loss of Hafner

we have Miller who will definately see some major league innings this season and be starting the year in the rotation next season, we have Chuck Lofgren who at just 20 years old is kicking arse and could make his debut in 2008, Lee and Sowers are locks if we in fact can keep JW then our rotation is still solid, and trading CC and/or JW could bring back a replacement starter in a trade.
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Unread postby DGeneral » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:46 pm

Pretty depressing that there is discussion of selling off prize assets when this team hasn't even made the playoffs in 5 years.

That shows an FO and management that have no plan and are inept.

Looks like Phase 2 of the continuous rebuild starts after another tank job mid summer. Westbrook, CC, and Hafner will yield some blue chip prospects not the mention the savings for Dolan in avoiding paying their exorbitant salary.

Fans have connected the dots in the picture of the Dolan ownership, pure misery if you like to watch a competitive team.
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Unread postby Dozen » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:53 pm

what we get in return from trading these 2 could really set this team on its way for the coming seasons


I thought thats why we traded Colon? I'm sick and god damned tired of hearing crap like that. :twisted:
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Unread postby British_Pharaoh » Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:33 am

what we get in return from trading these 2 could really set this team on its way for the coming seasons


I thought thats why we traded Colon? I'm sick and god damned tired of hearing crap like that. :twisted:


keep in mind that when we traded Bart CC, Baez, Finley and Drese were in the rotationnone of whom finished with an ERA under 4.40.

when we do end up trading CC either in next offseason or during 2008

Miller will be in the rotation and will have some innings under his belt, Lofgren would only be a year away, Carmona will have had another season of experience we'd still have Sowers and Lee and possibly JW so we'd be in great shape.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:00 am

The never ending rebuilding plan...brilliant
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Unread postby furls » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:03 am

The team has to do everything it can to compete this year, or the window closes again until 2009.
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Unread postby British_Pharaoh » Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:28 am

The never ending rebuilding plan...brilliant


everyone moans about the fact we let Thome and manny walk and didnt have the intelligence to trade them for something.

well we're gonna lose CC no matter so would you rather he walked or that we got a great deal in return

a player like him will bring back a truckload of talent
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Unread postby The Score » Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:19 pm

a player like him will bring back a truckload of talent


I'm over being the AAAA affiliate for other teams that will actually spend money on good players when they hit free agency.
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Unread postby pup » Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:08 pm

I know this will be unpopular, but that is what I do!

It makes more sense to trade Hafner or let him leave via free agency. We have Shoppach ready to handle the full time catching duties, allowing them to get Victor out from behind the plate and step into the DH role. With the money saved on Hafner, you could be able to keep CC. A rotation of CC, Miller, Lee, Carmona and Sowers could be one of the best in the game. Sure Hafner is very good, but is somewhat handcuffed by only being a DH, where Victor could serve as a backup catcher/1st baseman, offering you more day to day flexibility.

Let the blasting begin.... :twisted:
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Unread postby Guest » Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:11 pm

I like it Pup
I hate when guys can play no position at all, not even here and there.
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Unread postby docstank » Tue Jan 23, 2007 5:03 pm

One thing is for sure DO NOT LET HIM GO TO FREE AGENCY!!!
Listen one aspect of letting manny, thome, etc. walk via free agency is you have no control who signs them. Why do you think you need to win 100 games to get a wild card anymore. Trade everyone to the NL, deal with them in the world series, not all year long, i.e.: chisox, bosox, yankees, rangers, etc.. Even if you get less value from the other league, which not saying you will, but even if you do at least you did not make another one of your regular competitors that much better. Granted Thome did make it to Chicago via Philadelphia but still that took one more step to make it happen at least. Say no to free agency!!!
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:38 am

There is no way the Tribe keeps CC. All he needs is a healthy season, even mediocre by his standards and he will get a Zito-like deal both in contract length and money. As far as Westbrook, when they start paying ineffective, fragile stiffs like Gil Meche 12 mil a year, well that doesn't look to good either. I'd be suprised if they even came close to signing one back.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:46 am

Also, Pup, don't you think Martinez loses a lot of juice as a firstbaseman/DH. If your catcher is hitting .315 with 25 dongs you have an advantage, if your firstbaseman is doing it, well, it's ok, but not much better than many and worse than some. One thing for sure though, they've got to get him out of the catcher position. Look, the whole organization is filled with catchers as coaches, Wedge, Datz, Skinner etc. If they haven't gotten thru to him by now, they aren't going to. Teams are going to start pounding from day one this year. Couple that with the fact that the Indians coaching staff has gone about 10 years with the inability to teach their pitchers to hold runners on and you've got a big problem.
When Marinez came up he had the look of an adequate Catcher that was going to hit in the top three at his position. Now you've got a guy that you need to move to a position where he very well may be in the middle of the pack offensively, along with being the slowest player in the league. A little less than what they had hoped for. Maybe this would be a guy to deal.
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Unread postby pup » Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:18 am

Also, Pup, don't you think Martinez loses a lot of juice as a firstbaseman/DH. If your catcher is hitting .315 with 25 dongs you have an advantage, if your firstbaseman is doing it, well, it's ok, but not much better than many and worse than some


I think Victor could very easily turn into a .300, 35 guy, by adding some bulk, which I believe he tries to keep off to improve his flexibility, agility behind the plate. One off season, 10 pounds of muscle and you have a goon.

Even if he is decent behind the plate this year (a la 2005), he is still the worst defensive catcher in a division of good defensive catchers. If AJ, Mauer and Pudge are going to hit close to what he hits, then he is not really that much of a plus.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:05 pm

Two things:

First, moving Vic to 1B full-time is not the right course of action at this point. Right now, he is a better plus for this team as the catcher than as the 1B. He is a superior hitting catcher who has had some issues on defense, mainly the running game......but as a 1B he is an adequate defender but a middle of the pack offensive performer. Unless you are putting Pudge behind the plate, leave Victor there (for now).

Second, trading CC at this point is insane. I agree that they should explore trading WEestbrook, as I feel we have the depth in the rotation and the minors to replace him. But, I only trade him if two things are met: 1.) he turns down a good contract extension offer and seems hellbent on heading to FA and 2.) we get overwhelmed in a trade. I am not giving this guy up for nothing....I want $1.50 or more on the dollar. Next year, I use this same Westbrook approach once he is in his final year. But, for 2007, no way am I trading him. No way.
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Unread postby pup » Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:25 pm

I didn't say move Vic to first base. I said he is a DH, who could be a backup 1st baseman/catcher.

Within his own division he is:

3rd in career average, 2nd in homers/162 games and first in rbi/162 games.

The RBI he hits mostly in the middle of the order, on a very good offense. Pudge has been a #2 hitter, Mauer has not had as many chancess to drive in runs for the Twins. Even Pierzynski is not that far off Victor's numbers.

This is not meant to bash V-Mart. I love the way the guy swings the stick, but let's not get crazy with him being a plus hitting catcher, when he is about average for the division he is in.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jan 24, 2007 5:52 pm

Average?

Vic an elite hitting catcher.

in 2006, he was 2nd in runs created:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... mit=Submit

Mauer was 1st (obviously) at 106, with Victor 2nd at 99. By the time you get to the 10th best hitting catcher, Piezinski, he had 70. That is significant.

If you click on 2005, Victor was by far the best hitting catcher in baseball with 95 runs created....and the 2nd ranked guy Mauer only had 81.

Now, when everything is taken into account (defense, hitting, base-running, etc), martinez ranks out at 7th:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... mit=Submit

Vic's win shares were 19 last year. Mauer was #1 with 31, and Pudge 2nd with 25. If you click on 2005, Mauer was 1st with 23, and Vic 2nd with 22 though. And, in 2004, Pudge was #1 with 23 and Vic tied for 2nd with Posada with 21. Vic has actually consistently been in the 20 WS range, which is excellent for a catcher.

Also, everyone gets on Victor's poor throwout percentage.....but it is greatly over-stated. In 2005, the White Sox won a WS with Pierzinski as one of the worst in the league at throwing out runners (22.5%). The Red Sox won the WS in 2004 with Varitek being a poor thrower (he threw out 23.0% of runners in 2004). Varitek is in a lot of ways a Victor clone behind the plate when it comes to shutting down a running game.

Unless you have Yadier Molina, Pudge, or Mauer back there defensivly, I don't see any other catcher worth starting over Vic.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:10 pm

It is not over stated if it continues to be as poor as it is. Other teams have won the World Series with poor throwing catchers. Great. That doesn't make it allowable, especially at that rate and in with a mid-market team that has enough other defensive issues to overcome.

Shapiro brought in Barfield, which, is a move the team needed. But, if he wouldn't have run a fake spring training contest last year between Phillips and Vasquez (A guy who was so obviously not a major league player it wasn't even funny, and who won't be in the league again) and awarded the job to the clear loser, it might not have been necessary.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:31 pm

Lead Pipe wrote:It is not over stated if it continues to be as poor as it is. Other teams have won the World Series with poor throwing catchers. Great. That doesn't make it allowable, especially at that rate and in with a mid-market team that has enough other defensive issues to overcome.


Well, I don't want to completely minimize it, because the poor throwing IS a concern. But, to me, the poor caught-stealing percentage is about 20th on the list of problems for this team. It is a problem, but nothing which has a great affect on the overall wins/losses. If he were to bump it up to ML average of about 30%, that's roughly 10-15 more guys he catches a year. And considering the scoring rate of a player on 2nd is probably somewhere around 30%, that means 3-5 guys that an average catcher may have cut down score.

It's a problem, and may directly affect the result of 1-2 games.....but of course his bat has a much greater impact on many more games.
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Unread postby pup » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:31 pm

So that makes him, what the 3rd best catcher in the division? Isn't that what I just said? You play so many games in your division, and the same out of division schedule, so there is no point in comparing what you have to anyone outside the division. Who cares if our catcher is a better hitter than the Astros? In our division, Victor is very possibly the third best hitting catcher. And that is his strength.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Jan 24, 2007 6:34 pm

So what if he is the 3rd best catcher in the division, when he is the 3rd best overall. Just so happens the other two top catchers are in this division.

I mean, it's like saying Travis Hafner is average if Jim Thome and David Ortiz are in the same division as him. :mrgreen:
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Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Jan 25, 2007 12:17 am

This is the thing about baseball at this time of the year. People ASSUME waaaay to much. If Martinez gets up to 30%, if Martinez bulks up, adds 10 taters and can play adequate D at first, already assuming Adam Miller is going to blossom in the rotation, annointing Sowers as a mainstay...

The fact of the matter is, in baseball every team has several if's. We are going to assume the Tribe if's to come thru and other team's won't. Putting value on the Tribe for anything listed above is a whole lot of conjecture and not much fact.
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Unread postby pup » Thu Jan 25, 2007 8:36 am

Would you be ok with the Indians being the third best TEAM in the baseball, if Detroit and Chicago were the #1 and #2? No. (I hope). It is the same for individual players, IMO. If you are the third best at your position, within a division, you are an average player within that division.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:07 am

Pup wrote:Would you be ok with the Indians being the third best TEAM in the baseball, if Detroit and Chicago were the #1 and #2? No. (I hope). It is the same for individual players, IMO. If you are the third best at your position, within a division, you are an average player within that division.


If the Indians were the 3rd best team in baseball, I would be completely fine with that. It would mean we won roughly 95 games. Yes, it would also mean that Detroit and Chicago also won 96 or more.....but I would be completely fine with it. Give me a team that can win 90 or more games, and roll the dice. That's all I can ask for.

I don't get the whole ranking thing you are talking about. So, if you have Andy Marte ranked as the 3rd best 3B in the division....or Victor Martinez is the 3rd best catcher (he is not, he is probably more 1A).....then both are just average players? SO, if you have the #1 ranked position player, the guy is a superior advantage even if say that player is just average to being with?
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Unread postby pup » Thu Jan 25, 2007 10:25 am

If the Indians were the 3rd best team in baseball, I would be completely fine with that. It would mean we won roughly 95 games. Yes, it would also mean that Detroit and Chicago also won 96 or more.....but I would be completely fine with it. Give me a team that can win 90 or more games, and roll the dice. That's all I can ask for.



I'll take 88 wins and a division title over 95 and a 3rd place finish, any day of the week.

don't get the whole ranking thing you are talking about. So, if you have Andy Marte ranked as the 3rd best 3B in the division....or Victor Martinez is the 3rd best catcher (he is not, he is probably more 1A).....then both are just average players? SO, if you have the #1 ranked position player, the guy is a superior advantage even if say that player is just average to being with?


What I am saying is how you "rank" within your division is more important than how you rank all across MLB. In a 5 team division, you should want more players ranked within the division at 1 or 2 than 4 or 5. If your guy is the third best player, at his position, in your division, you are getting average production out of that player, for the position within the division. If Andy Marte ranks out to be the second best 3rd baseman in the division, then heads up against the rest of the division he has done more than Victor, should Victor be the 3rd best player. This does not mean Marte is better than Victor. This means, when compared to other players at his position, he is giving you a bigger advantage over the course of the season, when comapred against the most common opponents on your schedule.
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Unread postby consigliere » Thu Jan 25, 2007 12:54 pm

Pup wrote:I'll take 88 wins and a division title over 95 and a 3rd place finish, any day of the week.


Me too.

However, in the event we don't win the division, but manage to win 90+ or even 95 games, I am fine with that. I'll be pissed because we probably missed out on an opportunity, but all I ask for is a chance to get to the playoffs and win a WS. As much as a disappointment the 2005 season ended up being, I still consider it the 3rd best Indians season for me ever, even the 2000 season where we missed the playoffs was my 4th best. Those two years we missed the postseason, but I still rank them above 96, 98, 99 and 01 when we made the post-season.

95 and 97 were the best simply because of the ride we took to get to the WS. And, 00 and 05 were a hell of a lot of fun in Aug/Sept experiencing a pennant race.

As for the rankings of players in-division, I'm just going to agree to disagree on all that.
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