Who's going to guard Tim Duncan?

[jfiling]

I was thinking about this today, and a google search led me to an ABJ article from yesterday that shows Windhorst and I might be on the same wavelength:

http://www.ohio.com/mld/ohio/sports/bas ... 325436.htm

I don't see any way that Z or Gooden can effectively guard him, and I have a feeling that Varejao isn't going to get any of those cheap charges that the refs gave him in the regular season. I don't think Scot Pollard is necessarily the answer, but I have a feeling we're going to see a lot more of him in the Finals than we're used to seeing.

[pup]

Name me a 7'3" guy that Duncan has had success against in the post.

Z actually does a good job on him, and I believe LBJ will be there to double on the baseline when Duncan spins that way.

[furls]

Duncan has a tendancy to drop his shoulder while turning with his back to the rim. He gets a surprising number of offensive fouls called on this and Varejao should get a couple.

The combination of Varejao, Gooden, and Z/Marshall gives the Cavs about as good a chance as anyone. Duncan is going to score his 20-30 and get his 10-15 rebounds. Just deal with it.

The real keys to this series are:

1.) Bruce Bowen, can he provide enough D to deter LeBron at all.
2.) Ginobili/Parker, can they provide enough O to outrun the Cavs. The Cavs must keep the Spurs between 85-95 to have a chance.
3.) Gibson/Hughes, one of them needs to step up for the Cavs to win. It does not have to be the same guy each night, but the Cavs need great play out of the two of them (combined) four times.

All in all, I don't think it is impossible (or all that unlikely) for the Cavs to win. If I were laying Odds I would have the Spurs at 3:5.

[swerb]

The Cavs are going to start out with Z on him, then rotate bigs the rest of the way if the last two seasons regular games are any indication.