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Cleveland Cavaliers & The NBA

NBA Prime

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NBA Prime

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:55 pm

There has been some awesome work done on NBA Prime recently and it is worth dropping here. All of this is worth reading, IMO, especially because what defines and how long LBJ's prime lasts will define his overall impact on the game.

Short WSJ blurb on Prime at 24:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 83372.html

Pelton doing what he do regarding Gil's career arch and prime and how it related to related players:

http://basketballprospectus.com/article ... icleid=858

and the money shot from Shoals and Ziller (these two working together again at Fanhouse is so freaking awesome it makes my leg tingle) who look at peeps ranging from Malone to J-Kidd to Oscar (if you only click one of these links read this one):

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/01/20/for-prime-out-loud/
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby Cease » Wed Jan 20, 2010 5:11 pm

and the money shot from Shoals and Ziller (these two working together again at Fanhouse is so freaking awesome it makes my leg tingle) who look at peeps ranging from Malone to J-Kidd to Oscar (if you only click one of these links read this one):

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/01/20/for-prime-out-loud/


Very interesting insights on "adjusting to survive." All things being equal and in terms of production and longevity, the optimal NBA player will have a first burst, followed by a mid-career production spike, and then adjust to survive- ala Kidd, and present day Z and Shaq for that matter.

This also demonstrates how Kobe is currently "adjusting to survive" - amazingly surviving as the Holy Grail- an elite player over 30. Which is damned impressive and the reason you we really can't compare LBJ to Kobe careers just yet- we don't have the whole picture.

So, are we seeing LeBron's first (and typically higher) spike of production? Simmons says no ceiling, but the numbers suggest we could be watching it this year.

Plotting the Cavs... I'd say Mo, Delonte, Jamario, and Andy have made their mid-career adjustments and each could starting their second peak periods. Boobie's staring at himself in the mirror, searching for the right adjustment to make. JJ and Jawad are in their first bursts. Z, Shaq, Parker all in survival mode.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby aoxo1 » Wed Jan 20, 2010 10:27 pm

Meh.

Stats can't capture the improvements that may come with age. The greats, and most non greats, become more effective and efficient on both ends but are forced to conserve their energy and use it at the opportune moment.

Statistical peak isn't the same as greatness peak.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby aoxo1 » Wed Jan 20, 2010 10:36 pm

I do, of course, love the Shoals/Ziller combo, as always.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby FUDU » Thu Jan 21, 2010 3:34 am

eye that last link is somewhat interesting, but I think they are off a bit on a few things and under estimate how much really goes into everything they are trying to conclude. For IE, comparing Karl Malone with Dominique, WTF? Both stars, both HOFers sure, but they suggest they were both PF, and that is not accurate, maybe not at all. Dominque was simply not big enough to be a typical PF and didn't have the standard skill set to play the power forward position. Not saying he never played PF or couldn't have eventually but I just don't recall him ever doing so on anything resembling a regular basis. Those Hawks had Kevin Willis, Jon Koncak and AC (Antoine Carr) playing the big forward spot usually. Plus they are comparing one guy who was extremely effective and more comfortable in the half court set (although pretty good on the run early on, KM) to a guy who totally excelled in the open court and at times struggled to knock down shots if he wasn't hanging on the rim (DM).

The Kobe v Vince chart is more reasonable IMO, but there you have one guy who is mentally tuned in 100% of the time v a guy who seems to have basketball ADD and an injury history.

I'm sure their theory is a work in progress but is seems very raw and a lot like a rough draft right now.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Thu Jan 21, 2010 8:04 am

FUDU, it is something to look at and think about. No one, not me nor the authors is presenting it as final truth or fact.

Just some interesting analysis to contemplate.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby aoxo1 » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:58 am

The Kobe/Vince one compels me to mention that although they note there is a "marked talent gap", I have always been under the impression it is the reverse of what they are implying, ie: Vince was more talented than anyone, but squandered it all by not caring, while Kobe was pretty talented, but by no means in a class by himself, and made himself what he is through hard work and technical perfection.

Of course, to buy this you have to buy into the typical understanding of talent as merely athletic ability and not including the ability to focus and work hard. I disagree that the latter is something anyone can do; yes, Vince could have worked harder, but it just wasn't in his makeup (read: talents) to work the way Kobe has. But that's another discussion.
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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Fri Jan 22, 2010 1:38 pm

FWIW: some pretty freaking awesome work on J-Kidds current game. FUDU should watch this since he still gets hard every time he hears his name. Not Peyton hard, but hard nonetheless.

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Re: NBA Prime

Unread postby khetti » Fri Jan 22, 2010 2:46 pm

I've never agreed with the use of "wins per season" to compare players in the NBA. In MLB, this stat is obviously more relevant, especially for pitchers.

The fact that you assume the substitution of an average player for the subject player leaves a little to be desired, as the intangibles like leadership, vision and hustle are left out of the equation. Being a student of the game, LeBron can direct traffic and essentially coach the team from the court, which never shows up in anyone's stats directly (sans any assists he might rack up).

LeBron is a new breed of athlete (or perhaps a unique breed) with the combination of size, power, speed and finesse that we have never seen before. However, despite his size and speed (which can be devastating on the body in collisions with other players or the floor), the L-Train has been derailed very little in his career with injuries. This can be attributed to his practice of yoga and general stretching to keep those large muscles flexible and limber, which helps considerably when he's brought back down to earth after flying through the paint from some direction or another, landing awkwardly at times. Moreover, LeBron's body control is seemingly unmatched -- last night's game against the Lakers was the perfect example when he deflected a pass, took off at full-steam with the ball rolling down the court towards the sidelines and then leapt over the first two rows, all the while controlling his legs and feet in midflight to avoid knocking heads or shoulders. It was like poetry in motion to me -- and he didn't even have the ball.

I fully expect King James to be able to adapt his game to a more low-post, turn-around jumper kind-of-game later in his career, a la Jordan. In fact, LBJ is already perfecting those moves, I just wish that he'd start using it more, because if he can start making that shot consistently, there would be no way to defend him.
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