Our Keeper League - Great Draft

[ramllov]

WE had 12 keepers and completed a 11 round draft earlier this month.

I took a little time looking at the draft and the additions made my our many members.

These members did a great job.

I was wondering what I was doing while they completed their drafts.

The sure have some nice additions to their rosters.

The season is soon to start.

I would say the second, third and fourth spot are open to competition.

It is hard to say that the first place is already locked up. But, this is one nice team. Nice set of keepers, three of the five or six top keeper starting pitchers is a nice way to start the season.

The rest of the roster looked nice.

Buddy did a very nice job letting the right players fall to him.

Great job.

I have no idea how the rest of the standing are going to shake out.

I decided to trade one of my pitching aces Harang, for an all-star second baseman. I still believe the trade helped both of us.

He was able later to trade Carmona for two young pitchers, so again, he had his moves pretty well planned.

I have to freely admit at the start of the draft I created a snafu.

If you look at the time of the draft, 60 seconds, you'll know it was machine generated. I was planning to draft two pitchers and then hitter, hitter and see what players would fall.

I sent a message to Swerb, explaining the sudden and ugly deaths of my niece and nephew that happened last Saturday morning. It was a murder/suicide. The two children are 9 and 3, girl and boy, respectively. My wife's older sister is the grandmother.

We currently have custody of the children for about a month. We were available, it happened in Boca Raton.

I can say my attention was somewhere else for the first moments before the draft and at the beginning.

I actually like having Sheffield. I am sure I never would have drafted him. But, he sure makes my lineup better.

I think this will be the first year of the five years where my team could be competitive in RBIs and HRs. This will be a big change from the prior years.

I wish you all good luck, but not too good. I would like to finish in the money this year, so hopefully I will field a competitive team till the end of the season, instead of through July 1st to the 30th.

[ramllov]

It takes very good pitching and very good pitching to win money in our league. This is pretty consistent with the stories the various Cleveland Indians representatives have been saying as well as the news personnel that report on them.

They like the starting pitching. Especially the top two of the rotation as well as the following three, with two capable starters playing regularly in Buffalo.

Surprisingly, the Indians relief staff has had some major turover. Three new members from a very good staff.

The hitting remains pretty much the same. The concern is, can the Indians lineup score enough runs with the offensive teams in their competition, Toronto, Boston, New York, Detroit and Chicago.

Last year my team had the second best pitching, but 13th best offense. This was not a combination to win any money let alone compete. Twenty-four more points were needed to be found. Considering the unlikelyhood of the pitching repeating to be the second best, considering Harang is gone and a second baseman is added. Chris Carpenter is also gone, although he was hurt early and was not a factor in 2007.

The pitching staff has some questions, so the hitting better find about 30 points. Fifty to fifty five points on batting and fifty to fifty five on pitching should provide some money. Each team can make that same statement in the preseason.

My team started predraft with six hitters and six pitchers. The relief was set, but three young starters is the backbone of the rotations. Three to four good additions in the draft provide some comfort.

D. McGowan is the third starter for Toronto, which is a good team. This was the first pitcher in the draft with my second selection. I wanted him. I was surprised he lasted to the second round.

Z. Greinke was a good pickup. He has questions, but for a fifth starter, he is good. He has a high upside, with some risks in his past. He does not play for a good team, but he has good numbers.

When you get to the sixth member to any starting staff, a gamble takes place. Randy Johnson is a pretty big gamble. He will be on the IR, probably 25% of the year. He should actually provide some real nice numbers when he is healthy. He plays for a good team.
High risk, high reward type of guy.

Seven starter, Brian Bannister, KC. Again, a good young pitcher. How he does will be interesting. We start to continue the gamble.
Young and good upside, but playing for a poor team.

Eigth pitcher drafted, got cut, he did not make the Atlanta team rotation. He could be a call-up to watch.

Free agency was available since a last hitter taken in the draft was not going to make the roster and the Atlanta pitcher went to the minor. Shuffling free agency, IR and looking at the waiver wire, another starting pitcher was selected.

Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians, we all know about him. Is he the 2004 to 2006 pitcher who wins 14+ games or is he the guy who blew up in 2007. He is older and hopefully now willing to listen to his coaching. Good gamble.

Starting pitching is a weakness on this staff. High risk, but potential.

A. Sonnanstine, is now rated as the third starter for Tampa Bay. He is a true sleeper. Getting him and holding him, may be a diamond in the rough. Each team has identified a player or two who fit this classification. Some better and some worst. Many did not make it to the major club as the last cutdowns have occurred. The could be back in 30+ days.

The IR is a good place to stash a good pitcher with some potential.

The star were drafted. They will look real good when they are healthy. Many should be available after May, June or July. Noah Lowry, is a good pitcher. He is young and played for my team two years ago and did pretty well.

Again, the pitching staff is minus one or two starts as well as Blanton who got traded away late in the season. Hopefully, the new combination, plus future free agents can provide some good points in the 50 to 55 category.

[ramllov]

It is funny when I look at last year's results. My pitching was 61, three points from the leader. This was pretty good. I do not expect a repeat performance since three key pitchers are no longer on my roster. Chris Carpenter, did not do well with his injury, but someone will have a very good pitcher in late 2008 and for sure in 2009.

Harang was a trade to improve a weak 20+ points on batting. Second base used to be a strength until Soriano became an outfielder. Last year's various second basemen just did not work out. A high draft choice was a mistake and a variety of additional players provided limited performances. I would say Brandon Phillips will improve runs, steals, HRs, RBIs, but not much on the OBP. Four out of five, is pretty good considering, I probably got one out of five from the position last year.

Blanton was a very good pitcher last year. He will be missed. I went through three relief pitchers due to injury and inconsistency and finally got Borowski. Now it will be interesting to see what he does this year. There is a chance I will get 10 to 14 points from my relief pitchers. This is good. It may have cost a good catcher, Firstbase, outfield/first base or thirdbasemen, since Lowell, Garko, Duncan or K. Johjima were options for the last keeper position.

I liked all four of these players, but did not have an opportunity to draft them.

So, last years starters that contributed were Gonzales, IB, Jeter, SS, Johimjma C and Garko. Not a very impressive offense from last year's keepers and the draft. Hart/ourfielder was a good free agent pickup early, but the rest are long gone.

So what changed.

Lowell was a very late pickup. E. Encarnacion, is rated about 12th, 13th or 14th, whereas Lowell was 8 through 10 or 12 depending upon where you looked at the rating. Not good enough as a keeper, but Encarnation, is playing in a hitters part and could surprise. Lost a little bit in OBP, a few RBIs and runs. Picked up a few stolen bases and home runs. Good gamble. Considering Crede and others were last year's option, improvement in the long term.

Jeter, SS, he is rated consistently about the four best at the position. High OBP, high runs, above average RBIs for a SS, double digit HRs and SBs. A few more years and he will need to be replaced. But, far above average.

Second base, Brandon Philips, major acquistion for a high cost of Harang, SP, Cinn. Discussed above.

First base Adrian Gonzales, had a good year last year and should do a little better. He is hitting his prime. Bad ballpark for HRs and production, but he will hit 30HRS, 100, RBIs, 100 Runs, fair OBP, no or few SBs. Probably 8 to 10 on the scale of firstbasemen.

Overall infield, much better than last year. Other teams have better and worst infields.

Catcher - C Snyder, Arizona. This player is a true sleeper. His production will be less than K. Johjima. KJ was good for 15 HRs, 65RBIs, 330 OBP and 50 runs, one or two SB. He was not a keeper, although, I had him as a keeper in 2007. Mistake!
Snyder should have an OBP of 340+, 15 HRs, 55 to 60 RBIs, a few SBs and 50 runs. He will bat late in the National League batting order so I lose a few runs. Overall, catcher late in the draft is adequate if it works out. Catchers except for a few are pretty much the same from six or seven to twenty.

DH - Went from Garko - IB/DH to Gary Sheffield. Garko had a productive year, but he lost many at bats to Martinez, about one out of every five games. So say 100 to 140 ABs. Gary Sheffield when he is hitting should be as productive or better, especially OBP. Again, surprisingly Sheffield should provide 10 to 15 SBs whereas Garko maybe one or two. HRs, RBIs and R scored might be a wash, but Sheffield might be an improvement. Injury concern for Sheffield, but J. D. Drew, M. Alou or A. Kearns are adequate replacements when healthy. Good improvment, especially depth.

Outfield - Three outfielders and the three backups mentioned above in the DH area. Depth is very good.

Soriano is rated top five outfielder, his OBP is his weakness. Batting second should reduce his SB, but improve his RBIs. Again most players on this team can provide some SBs, whereas last year this was a major weakness.
Hart is a good outfielder. He probably is top 25. This is good, runs, HRs, SB, and RBIs. OBP, not yet, he needs to mature as a hitter.
Matt Kemp, top 40 outfielder if he is starting. I guess he is the dark horse. They lable him as a potential Manny Ramierz potential who can still bases. This will be interesting to watch. I guess each member on our league kept one or two potential guys to be a star or stud. Kemp and Cain were mine.

So, how many points can I improve on from 20.5 for last year's batting. Twenty more points put me at a low end of the 90+ area.

That is the goal. It beats 81.5. 90 might make money, if other weak teams improve and some higher scoring teams are not so successful.

[buddycowley]

I'll try to put together an overall analysis of the teams soon, but I've been in Jamaica for the past week and my brain isn't yet fully turned back on.

A couple notes:

1. I have to admit, I did get a little lucky in acquiring some of these guys. Sometimes, getting a guy off waivers a little early can go a really long way (Braun and Shields). At the same time, guys I've kept around have really developed into big-time players, especially Holliday and Webb, who I have had on my team for at least 3 years. Still, have to be an all-around team, and I still have weaknesses.

2. Sonnastine was tough to let go, but I had to pick up someone to plug in at RP so I could be legal. Now, I just have to play the Eric Gagne waiting game so they can give the reins in the 9th over to Turnbow again.

3. Should be competitive all the way through this year, and there are some guys out there with some really young, but really dangerous teams for the future as well.

Still, I'm looking forward to repeating this year.

Buddy