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#4, #22, and _________?

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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby jb » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:32 am

JCoz wrote:http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7622088/2012-nfl-draft-st-louis-rams-decide-trade-no-2-overall-pick-sources-say

Am I reading this wrong or did the Browns not interview RG3?

I would do this deal instantly if that's what they are looking for.



They did interview him.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby jb » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:35 am

HoodooMan wrote:
swerb wrote:It's really this simple. If you believe, as I do, that Luck and RG3 are two of the best QB prospects to enter the draft since Peyton Manning came into the league...

...You have two massively elite prospects with very low chances of becoming Ryan Leaf.


That's either dishonest or deluded..


Why?

What cause Ryan Leaf to bust?
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Sea Foam Green » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:48 am

jb wrote:
HoodooMan wrote:
swerb wrote:It's really this simple. If you believe, as I do, that Luck and RG3 are two of the best QB prospects to enter the draft since Peyton Manning came into the league...

...You have two massively elite prospects with very low chances of becoming Ryan Leaf.


That's either dishonest or deluded..


Why?

What cause Ryan Leaf to bust?



Agree. I lived in Indy in 98, and there was no clear cut front runner like there is this year. Leaf had a camp, Manning had a camp, there was a camp of people who thought it didn't matter because both would be good. In fact, I think the reason Polian was respected so long in Indy despite his recent atrocious draft record was because he chose Manning when the decision didn't seem that obvious.

But make no mistake, every player has a bust risk. QB's are no different, and probably even more susceptible, even highly touted QBs.

But as has been pointed out on this board, and this thread, many many times, you absolutely have to take that risk. You need a good QB to compete in this league. There are maybe 10-15 good QBs out there, and those teams with them aren't going to let them go. So there is only one way to get one.

So you do what it takes to move up to 2. And you draft one, because this year you're guaranteed one at 2. And if that doesn't work out, then you try it again next year, or two years or whenever you know the guy doesn't have it.

But you keep trying until you get the guy, because with out that guy, you're not going anywhere regardless.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Tue Feb 28, 2012 10:55 am

HoodooMan wrote:
rebelwithoutaclue wrote:Using that logic you can say the same thing about Andrew Luck.


Most wouldn't, but yeah, I would.

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:Edit: And what's the cutoff for the 50/50 pass/fail rate for QB's? 50% of each in 1 year? 2 years? A decade? 50 years?


I have no idea what this means. ETA: Wait, are you really not sure if the last 30 years worth of highly drafted QBs is a sufficient sample size?

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:What says that if Luck succeeds that RG3 has to fail?


Because, when you flip a coin and it turns up heads, it's guaranteed to turn up tails the next flip?



I recognize the sample size of the past that says that 1st round QB's are 50/50 to fail; my comment was, going forward, what is the limit on looking at the 50/50 pass fail rate? You answered the question by saying that if Luck succeeds, RG3 will fail. My question was, when you look at the next, say, 5 years and say that 50% will fail, do you mean that 50% EVERY year will fail (1/1 each year) or only 50% TOTAL will fail i.e. 2 could pass in year 1 followed by 2 failing in year 2 etc. Your answer showed that you think that If 1 passes, the other fails.


I've got news for you, it's not a zero-sum game every year. Just because Luck will be great doesn't mean that RG3 won't be and vice versa. Gotta be one of the dumbest things I've heard on these boards.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:04 am

You have drafts like 99 and drafts like 04, to rebels point
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:05 am

I find it interesting that DooDoo has now painted himself who doesn't think RG3 will be awesome when he actually likes him more than Luck as a prospect.

Amusing to say the least.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:18 am

jb wrote:
HoodooMan wrote:
swerb wrote:It's really this simple. If you believe, as I do, that Luck and RG3 are two of the best QB prospects to enter the draft since Peyton Manning came into the league...

...You have two massively elite prospects with very low chances of becoming Ryan Leaf.


That's either dishonest or deluded..


Why?

What cause Ryan Leaf to bust?


That's an irrelevant question. What caused Leaf to bust has no bearing on what will cause future QB prospects to bust. I feel pretty confident in saying that every single team that drafted a QB 1st or 2nd overall in the last 30 years thought they were getting their franchise savior QB, and only half of them were right. Looking back at the half of them that were wrong and pretending they should have known better for one reason or another is hindsight BS. And for some of the people doing the pretending, if you're having trouble remembering some of the past QB prospects you've loved that have turned out to be terrible, I can give you a hand with that. (Vince Young, anyone? How about Troy Smith with a Top 5 pick, Swerb, you QB Guru, you?)

It's a huge risk. With every single one of them. A risk worth taking, IMO, when you're only risking one high pick, but 3, 4, 5 1st & 2nd round picks? The building blocks of a football team? That's staking an awful lot on one coinflip, and that simply isn't wise. Even in the best case scenario where you hit on a great QB, you've already put yourself in a much worse situation to build around him and help make him and his team successful.

The hitrate for Top 2 QBs (it doesn't really change, BTW, for Top 5 QBs) and Top 5 WRs (Top 5 CBs too, even though the sample size is much smaller, in case you want to switch Blackmon out for Claiborne) is pretty much equal at 50%. The odds of improving our team with A Good Player is basically equal, between RG3 at 2 and Blackmon or Claiborne at 4. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that with the 2, 3, 4 additional 1st & 2nd round picks, those selections combine to give us a higher % chance at Additional Good Players than Zero, which is what it is when you pour all that risk & opportunity into one player.

I love RG3. He isn't the first, he won't be the last. Stick with a conservative, long-term approach. Stay at 4. Wait for another opportunity.
Last edited by HoodooMan on Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:20 am

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:You answered the question by saying that if Luck succeeds, RG3 will fail. My question was, when you look at the next, say, 5 years and say that 50% will fail, do you mean that 50% EVERY year will fail (1/1 each year) or only 50% TOTAL will fail i.e. 2 could pass in year 1 followed by 2 failing in year 2 etc. Your answer showed that you think that If 1 passes, the other fails.


I've got news for you, it's not a zero-sum game every year. Just because Luck will be great doesn't mean that RG3 won't be and vice versa. Gotta be one of the dumbest things I've heard on these boards.


So you thought I was being sincere when I said that a 2nd coinflip is guaranteed to turn up the opposite of the first?

Sometimes I'm sarcastic when people ask dumb questions.
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...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:22 am

e0y2e3 wrote:I find it interesting that DooDoo has now painted himself who doesn't think RG3 will be awesome when he actually likes him more than Luck as a prospect.

Amusing to say the least.


SMH.

SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSMH.
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...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:33 am

Don't worry, I didn't ruin your "let's be the 49ers!!!! weak ass argument"
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:34 am

Hoodoo what's the hit rate for taking the 4th, 5th on down best QB prospects? Hint, it ain't 50/50. If you don't solve QB, you won't compete I this division. That's why the ravens got their dicks kicked in for a decade while the rest of their team was arguably built up to championship caliber level.

People like to say there is always next year but the team is actually getting better IYAM, and its just NOT going to get any easier to land that (relatively speaking) high percentage, elite level QB prospect by building the team up more and passing in the opportunity to get that guy.

It stil comes down to what you think of RG3. IMO, it's a great combo, athletically gifted rocket arm, and very intelligent from what I consider a great background having military parents. A chip on his shoulder for not being the first selected doesnt hurt either. There are no guarantees it works out but that's a decision I can make and deal with if it fails, because it was a sound bet given the information available and projected payout.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:37 am

OK, wow, I didn't remember all of this...

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/cleveland-browns/1-browns-archive/1186

In my latest, I take a look at the seven players that are most likely to be the Browns next high first round draft choice. I try and make the case for all of them, explaining why each would make the most sense once the Browns go on the clock in late April. It’s what we do best Browns fans. Talk NFL Draft.

...

QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame

I’m not stupid. Quinn is very likely to be selected #1 or #2 overall by Oakland or Detroit. If not, he’s an absolute no-brainer at #3, and the Browns should aggressively try and move up in the draft to select this kid and not foolishly pray he falls to them.

Brady Quinn is the prototypical NFL quarterback, and is as much of a lock to be a star NFL signal caller as Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer were when they left school. There’s certain guys that you just know will be superstars, and Quinn is in that class. He has ideal size and smarts, is as strong as an ox, and has a Grade A cannon that can make every throw in the playbook. He is as NFL ready as they come, playing in a pro offense under Charlie Weis, and should be able to start from day one.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are not the answers. Brady Quinn is. Do whatever it takes to get this kid.

...

QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU

Right outta the gates, lets establish two things. One, Brady Quinn is going to be gone when we pick, and trading up for him is not a realistic option. Two, JaMarcus Russell is leaving school early, and is a no-brainer to be a top five pick in this year’s draft.

Russell is going to be a superstar in this league, it’s that simple. He’s 6’6, 260 lbs, has the strongest arm in all of college football, and fires the ball with frightening accuracy. In other years, he’d be the #1 pick of the entire draft, and still may be this season. He is tough, heady, immensely talented … and will be the best player of this entire draft class once it’s all said and done. And this team desperately needs a quarterback.

When the Browns pick, Russell will be the best quarterback on the board. He is a once in a generation type talent. They can’t afford to pass on him.

...

QB Troy Smith, Ohio State

You can take your measurables and shove them up your ass. Troy Smith is a winner. He’s from Cleveland, and went to Ohio State. He is going to be an elite quarterback at the next level, and if the Browns pass on him … they will be haunted by it for the next fifteen years, just as the Texans will be as a result of passing on Vince Young.

People act like Troy Smith is 5’6. He’s 6’1, incredibly well built, his football IQ is off the charts, runs like a tailback, can make all the throws, and has all the intangibles. He’s publicly stated that he wants to play here, where he grew up, and that he is still a huge Cleveland Browns fan. And since when do you have to be 6’6 to be a great NFL quarterback? And who forgot to tell Drew Brees that?

With where this franchise is at, they cannot afford to pass on Troy Smith. The other quarterbacks may be taller, but none will be the player Troy will be at the next level.


<--Actually laughing out loud right now.

And just in case anyone needs reminding, Vince Young was (and still is) my favorite QB prospect ever. I liked Russell too. I liked Quinn. I thought, in terms of a safe QB prospect, he was really safe...just like Manning...and Luck.

50/50
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:49 am

Troy smith fell to what the fifth round? And Brady to the bottom of the first round?

I dont know that quoting Swerb really does much to back you up. Fans can be enamored all they want.

My biggest miss on a QB prospect? I actually thought Lienart was can't miss. Thats embarrassing to type. What I can say without question is RG has very, very little in common with any of those QB's. Does that mean he wont fail for different reasons? No, admittedly it doesn't.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:50 am

HoodooMan wrote:It's a huge risk. With every single one of them. A risk worth taking, IMO, when you're only risking one high pick, but 3, 4, 5 1st & 2nd round picks? The building blocks of a football team? That's staking an awful lot on one coinflip, and that simply isn't wise. Even in the best case scenario where you hit on a great QB, you've already put yourself in a much worse situation to build around him and help make him and his team successful.

The hitrate for Top 2 QBs (it doesn't really change, BTW, for Top 5 QBs) and Top 5 WRs (Top 5 CBs too, even though the sample size is much smaller, in case you want to switch Blackmon out for Claiborne) is pretty much equal at 50%. The odds of improving our team with A Good Player is basically equal, between RG3 at 2 and Blackmon or Claiborne at 4. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that with the 2, 3, 4 additional 1st & 2nd round picks, those selections combine to give us a higher % chance at Additional Good Players than Zero, which is what it is when you pour all that risk & opportunity into one player.

I love RG3. He isn't the first, he won't be the last. Stick with a conservative, long-term approach. Stay at 4. Wait for another opportunity.


But that's the whole problem. We will have other opportunities in free agency and the draft to get good players at CB, OL, WR,etc...

It's a lot harder to get a great QB, and that's by far the single most important one to get.

Wait for another opportunity? When? Next year when we are picking 9th and have only 1 first rounder? And the guy that we want to trade up for is not even as good as the guy within range this year? And trading up next year or the year after will still cost a shitload of 1st and 2nd rounders.

It's not that one of these guys can't bust. Of course they can. And if we give up the farm for RG3 and he busts , then we are screwed for a long time. But if we don't go up to get him, we are screwed for a long time anyway, while we build our team and "wait for our opportunity" that is going to end up costing us out the ass when it arrives down the road anyway.

I see no other place to get the QB,. FA underwhelms me. Drafting one lower is far less likely to get you the guy you need. Hoping for the next Brady and lucking into a guy seems like a bad plan. Drafting one high seems far and away the best odds.

There is a guy there. we have the opportunity RIGHT NOW to get him. The cost will absolutely suck. But there is a reason the cost will be so high...becuase if he is that guy, it is absolutley worth it.

So you pay the cost to be the boss...this year.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:51 am

HooDoo is right in stating that every QB coming into the draft is a risk. The same can be said about every single player at every single position coming into the draft. There are no guarantees.

You're taking a chance.

So you look at the player's attributes, their drawbacks, where they might possibly fail, what their ceiling is, what their floor is, and you make the call on which chance you want to take. This is why GM's get paid big bucks.

I can only speak for myself, but RG3 is a chance I would take. I personally value QB much higher than any other position. I know that it will take a lot to get him, I agree that it is painful, but potential reward vs. the potential risk (for me) is worth it.

But I can still understand those who might not feel that way b/c we'd have to sell the farm to do it.

Now, people that don't want RG3 b/c they want to stick with Colt McCoy... those I don't understand.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:57 am

Agreed Hiko, that's essentially what I was saying a few posts up.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:59 am

Is that cost really ALL THAT PAINFUL when you consider last years trade down packaged with it?

Seriously...
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby pod2dawg » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:00 pm

I really thought Mike Phipps & Paul McDonald were sure fire hits.........which is why I stuck with the healthcare field and not player personnel.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:00 pm

HoodooMan wrote:<--Actually laughing out loud right now.

And just in case anyone needs reminding, Vince Young was (and still is) my favorite QB prospect ever. I liked Russell too. I liked Quinn. I thought, in terms of a safe QB prospect, he was really safe...just like Manning...and Luck.

50/50


OK, so let's say that the Browns passed on Quinn 5 years ago and drafted a guy who turned into a stud LB instead. And that guy is still on the team. How much better have the Browns been the last 5 years with the LB and a steaming pile of QB shit?

I say they are no better off and we are still in the same position right now.

Just beacuse Quinn flopped doesn't necessarily mean it was the wrong decision in real time. Drafting your QB was the best way, and still is the best way, to become an elite playoff team. And if Quinn was, so would the Browns be RIGHT NOW.

Quinn dropped and Savage took his shot. It sucks that it turned out the way it did, but I guess I can't fault him for pulling the trigger.

It's been 5 years and we need to do it again.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby jb » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:03 pm

pod2dawg wrote:I really thought Mike Phipps & Paul McDonald were sure fire hits.........which is why I stuck with the healthcare field and not player personnel.


A 4th rounder? A sure fire hit?

Were you smoking a lot of weed in the disco about then?
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:05 pm

motherscratcher wrote:OK, so let's say that the Browns passed on Quinn 5 years ago and drafted a guy who turned into a stud LB instead. And that guy is still on the team. How much better have the Browns been the last 5 years with the LB and a steaming pile of QB shit?


I'm glad you've come around to agree that there will be more opportunities down the line and that they won't all have to involve trading up.

And JCoz, when you're thinking about spending your money on something but decide not to, that isn't actually a credit to your account, nor an excuse to buy something else as a reward for having previously been so responsible. <--Personal finance analogy to "Is that cost really ALL THAT PAINFUL when you consider last years trade down packaged with it?"
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:10 pm

HoodooMan wrote:
motherscratcher wrote:OK, so let's say that the Browns passed on Quinn 5 years ago and drafted a guy who turned into a stud LB instead. And that guy is still on the team. How much better have the Browns been the last 5 years with the LB and a steaming pile of QB shit?


I'm glad you've come around to agree that there will be more opportunities down the line and that they won't all have to involve trading up.


I did?

I was pretty sure that I was saying that another opportunity down the line might be WAY down the line and end up costing us just as much as it would right now anyway.

But hey, if you want to wait 5 years and then trade some 1sts and 2nds for whoever the best 11th grade QB is right now...I guess that's a plan too. At least we might have a decent right tackle protecting Seneca Wallace by then.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby jb » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:14 pm

HoodooMan wrote:
jb wrote:
HoodooMan wrote:
swerb wrote:It's really this simple. If you believe, as I do, that Luck and RG3 are two of the best QB prospects to enter the draft since Peyton Manning came into the league...

...You have two massively elite prospects with very low chances of becoming Ryan Leaf.


That's either dishonest or deluded..


Why?

What cause Ryan Leaf to bust?


That's an irrelevant question.



No , that is THE question.


Hear me out because I'm not getting hyperboltastic inter webs shouting guy and dismissing you.

Here are my starting points for discussion:

- Let's just call a spade a spade, to coin a phrase, and agree you are pulling this 50/50 Cryin Leaf shit out your bung hole, OK? Let's keep our level of discourse > GOP Primary debates and talk as men.

- That said, there has never been such a thing as a sure thing draft pick and there never will be. They can all bust. They can all hit. This is with various degrees of completely unpredictable odds sans slot selection where there is a statistically significant body of evidence that on the surface creates some degree of objectively quantifiable sample size. Problem is, that doesn't exist by position and slot within round in probably most cases. So let's not be sophists and let's remove this Tree-esque pretzel logic from our discussion, Mmmm kay?

- That leaves singular case study prospect Robert Griffin in play for discussion. Compare and contrast to Ryan Leaf please. I submit Ryan Leaf failed solely due to his immaturity and possibly intelligence and work ethic and not due in any way to physical talent. Do you disagree? If so, I see no such similarities in RG3. I see other causes to question, but nothing remotely similar. There is no way that RG3 carries a similar risk factor compared to Ryan Leaf. He's physically nearly perfect and has intelligence and discipline. His only knocks come in the form of human imperfection that must account for the potential of failure and the system in which he played.

- That leaves the questions of drafting for upside or safety within the twin contexts of numbers and odds of hitting and individual value by position on the field. I think I know where you fall. Valid point. Hiko has made exactly the point I would. Personally, I think it trumps your points. No need to rehash.

- That leaves football philosophies of position value if all goes well. Do 3 1st rounders at various positions = 1 first round potential franchise QB in today's NFL. Again, I think you have made the arguments for your case well. Valid points exist. But you do not convince me.

I'd pay 3 numbers ones and about as much third day ( <- edit) flotsam and jetsam as they want for a shot at a bona fide franchise QB in today's NFL.

This is the defining moment for the Heckgren Era in all probability. Either path is defensible without emotion. But either path carries with it a very legitimate set or fireable criticisms if it is wrong in three years without a hint of 20/20 hindsight.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:32 pm

JCoz wrote:Is that cost really ALL THAT PAINFUL when you consider last years trade down packaged with it?

Seriously...


Anytime you have to give up a 1st rounder and probably a 2nd rounder, it sucks.

But it's not painful enough for me not to do it.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:47 pm

jb wrote:Let's just call a spade a spade, to coin a phrase, and agree you are pulling this 50/50 Cryin Leaf shit out your bung hole, OK? Let's keep our level of discourse > GOP Primary debates and talk as men.


I don't concede this.

It's tempting to say that top QB prospects are not all created equally, so they don't all carry the same odds of success or failure. In some impossible-to-predict sense, that's absolutely true. And you know what, maybe professional talent evaluators are good enough that they could tell you which ones--among the top QB prospects--carry better odds than the others. I doubt they can, based on the collective past performance of NFL GMs, but maybe they can.

I know for a fact that I can't. If, trying really hard to avoid any hindsight interference, I try to put together a ranking of the QB prospects I've watched enough over the years to form my own opinion (which eliminates QBs in some years where my focus wasn't on that position, and some from programs I'm just not likely to watch), it looks roughly like this since 2004, when I really started taking my draft geekiness to a stupider level:

1. Vince Young (next Elway!)
2. Eli (Hiko & e0 should get a laugh out of that)
3. Bradford (looking kind of shitty right now)
4. Russell (wooooooooo, look at that arm! upside, upside, upside!)
5. Rapist (I'm pretty sure I only watched his bowl game, because when-TF else was I going to watch Miami Ohio, but I was really, really impressed...just thought he was risky due to his level of competition)
6. Quinn (he's so safe!)

^end of guys I liked

7. Stafford (nice arm, made a lot of shitty decisions with the football at UGA with a lot of talent around him)
8. Rivers (rated as a 7th round prospect going into his Sr year, I thought he was more of a college system guy than anything)
9. Newton (liked him as an experimental NFL spread option QB, hated him as a traditional QB prospect)
10. Leinart (I hated, was sure he was a ballroom-dancing slacker douche)

But, you know, maybe despite their collectively random draft record, if you asked NFL GMs to do the same thing, it wouldn't look anything like that at all. But I'll bet it would.

So when I can say to myself, "Self, RG3 is your 2nd favorite QB prospect over that period of time," it's tempting to pretend his chances at success are better than some of the guys on that list who've failed. But stepping back, they just probably aren't.

jb wrote:- That leaves singular case study prospect Robert Griffin in play for discussion. Compare and contrast to Ryan Leaf please. I submit Ryan Leaf failed solely due to his immaturity and possibly intelligence and work ethic and not due in any way to physical talent. Do you disagree? If so, I see no such similarities in RG3. I see other causes to question, but nothing remotely similar. There is no way that RG3 carries a similar risk factor compared to Ryan Leaf. He's physically nearly perfect and has intelligence and discipline. His only knocks come in the form of human imperfection that must account for the potential of failure and the system in which he played.


I agree that it's very easy to look at someone like Leaf, in hindsight, and point at things that were negatives that aren't present in a current QB prospect and, as a result, give yourself a false sense of security that the current guy has a better chance at success. But stepping back, he just probably doesn't.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:49 pm

Another opportunity 5 years down the road might as well be a lifetime away.

As far as I'm concerned, even next year's draft doesn't exist. Don't know who's coming out, how they'll play, who will rise, who will fall, where we'll pick, etc. etc. etc.

There is little doubt that the Browns will have an opportunity to draft a QB in the future. Which QB and where they select him and what they have/don't have to give up to get him... that's all so fuzzy it's not really worth debating.

They might have another chance just like this next year. It also might take a decade.

How many times in life have we reasoned we'd do something "later", and later never comes?
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby mattvan1 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 12:57 pm

HooDoo's premise is flawed because he fails to acknowledge the degrees of risk (as JB points out above). It's not black and white/either or. You have to look at the potential ceiling as well as the floor for RGIII. And this is what makes him different and a reason why you might over pay to get him - his ceiling is extrodinarily high - as is his floor. Meaning that even if he never comes close to living up to expectations, he can still be a serviceable starting QB in the NFL. Because he has the intelligence, the work ethic, the dedication, the mindset to go with the skills......as opposed to Leaf, Russell, Smith, etc.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:01 pm

HoodooMan wrote:3. Bradford (looking kind of shitty right now)


^I mean, smart (36 wonderlic), nice athlete, really accurate arm, prototypical size, plays in that great Big 12 conference...
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:03 pm

HoodooMan wrote:
motherscratcher wrote:OK, so let's say that the Browns passed on Quinn 5 years ago and drafted a guy who turned into a stud LB instead. And that guy is still on the team. How much better have the Browns been the last 5 years with the LB and a steaming pile of QB shit?


I'm glad you've come around to agree that there will be more opportunities down the line and that they won't all have to involve trading up.

And JCoz, when you're thinking about spending your money on something but decide not to, that isn't actually a credit to your account, nor an excuse to buy something else as a reward for having previously been so responsible. <--Personal finance analogy to "Is that cost really ALL THAT PAINFUL when you consider last years trade down packaged with it?"


The browns didn't decide not to spend they flipped their assets and gained value, so looking at this as a two two strategy isn't invalid.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Madre Hill, Superstar » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:05 pm

Meanwhile, talk is that the 'Skins are already offering two firsts, a second, and a third and its not even March. Forget three firsts, when do we start talking Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams?
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:07 pm

HoodooMan wrote:
jb wrote:Let's just call a spade a spade, to coin a phrase, and agree you are pulling this 50/50 Cryin Leaf shit out your bung hole, OK? Let's keep our level of discourse > GOP Primary debates and talk as men.


I don't concede this.

It's tempting to say that top QB prospects are not all created equally, so they don't all carry the same odds of success or failure. In some impossible-to-predict sense, that's absolutely true. And you know what, maybe professional talent evaluators are good enough that they could tell you which ones--among the top QB prospects--carry better odds than the others. I doubt they can, based on the collective past performance of NFL GMs, but maybe they can.

I know for a fact that I can't. If, trying really hard to avoid any hindsight interference, I try to put together a ranking of the QB prospects I've watched enough over the years to form my own opinion (which eliminates QBs in some years where my focus wasn't on that position, and some from programs I'm just not likely to watch), it looks roughly like this since 2004, when I really started taking my draft geekiness to a stupider level:

1. Vince Young (next Elway!)
2. Eli (Hiko & e0 should get a laugh out of that)
3. Bradford (looking kind of shitty right now)
4. Russell (wooooooooo, look at that arm! upside, upside, upside!)
5. Rapist (I'm pretty sure I only watched his bowl game, because when-TF else was I going to watch Miami Ohio, but I was really, really impressed...just thought he was risky due to his level of competition)
6. Quinn (he's so safe!)

^end of guys I liked

7. Stafford (nice arm, made a lot of shitty decisions with the football at UGA with a lot of talent around him)
8. Rivers (rated as a 7th round prospect going into his Sr year, I thought he was more of a college system guy than anything)
9. Newton (liked him as an experimental NFL spread option QB, hated him as a traditional QB prospect)
10. Leinart (I hated, was sure he was a ballroom-dancing slacker douche)

But, you know, maybe despite their collectively random draft record, if you asked NFL GMs to do the same thing, it wouldn't look anything like that at all. But I'll bet it would.

So when I can say to myself, "Self, RG3 is your 2nd favorite QB prospect over that period of time," it's tempting to pretend his chances at success are better than some of the guys on that list who've failed. But stepping back, they just probably aren't.

jb wrote:- That leaves singular case study prospect Robert Griffin in play for discussion. Compare and contrast to Ryan Leaf please. I submit Ryan Leaf failed solely due to his immaturity and possibly intelligence and work ethic and not due in any way to physical talent. Do you disagree? If so, I see no such similarities in RG3. I see other causes to question, but nothing remotely similar. There is no way that RG3 carries a similar risk factor compared to Ryan Leaf. He's physically nearly perfect and has intelligence and discipline. His only knocks come in the form of human imperfection that must account for the potential of failure and the system in which he played.


I agree that it's very easy to look at someone like Leaf, in hindsight, and point at things that were negatives that aren't present in a current QB prospect and, as a result, give yourself a false sense of security that the current guy has a better chance at success. But stepping back, he just probably doesn't.


This is what I was trying to get out of you yesterday and I find it HILARIOUS.

Can you stop liking RG3 now, this is our first overlap like ever and I don't like it.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:09 pm

Because I'm sure your ranking over that time goes:

1. Rodgers
2. Rapist
3. Eli
....

Right?
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Triple-S » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:13 pm

Madre Hill, Superstar wrote:Meanwhile, talk is that the 'Skins are already offering two firsts, a second, and a third and its not even March. Forget three firsts, when do we start talking Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams?


2012- The Two firsts
Third rounder
6th rounder

2013-
2nd Rounder
4th Rounder

2014
3rd Rounder (becomes a first or second depending on if the Browns can reach the playoffs)
7th Rounder

Snyder can go back to ripping people off with his crappy mattresses and selling beer in the bathrooms of FedEX Field.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:15 pm

No, I sat on Rogers, and didn't watch Rapist.

I was more of the Eli/Cam/Stafford/Rivers variety.

I was always big on Eli because he wasn't a giant pussy like his brother, that alone gave him mucho points.

Bradford had everything and was nice and all, but just never felt right. Meh.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:23 pm

FTR, my opinions before the draft...

Loved JaMarcus Russell. Did not like Quinn (but was fine with him at 22). Not much opinion on Eli other than he wouldn't have gone #1 if not for his brother. Didn't like Rivers' arm or throwing motion. Had no clue what teams saw in Alex Smith. Liked Ryan just fine, just not that high. Liked Cam, but didn't think he'd be that good right away. Thought Sanchez was vastly overrated. Thought Vince would be a big project, but worth the shot should he pan out. Didn't really have an opinion on Stafford (for whatever reason, didn't pay attention to him). Liked Bradford.

Also FTR - I like both Luck and RG3 more than I liked ANY of the guys listed above.

EDIT - forgot the ones from this year (except Cam), hated Gabbert, real meh on Locker, no clue how Ponder got picked so high, liked Kaepernick, meh on Mallett, thought Dalton was decent but ordinary.
Last edited by Hikohadon on Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:29 pm

mattvan1 wrote:HooDoo's premise is flawed because he fails to acknowledge the degrees of risk (as JB points out above). It's not black and white/either or. You have to look at the potential ceiling as well as the floor for RGIII. And this is what makes him different and a reason why you might over pay to get him - his ceiling is extrodinarily high - as is his floor. Meaning that even if he never comes close to living up to expectations, he can still be a serviceable starting QB in the NFL. Because he has the intelligence, the work ethic, the dedication, the mindset to go with the skills......as opposed to Leaf, Russell, Smith, etc.


This is a good synopsis of where I'm at too. I see RG3 not as a Boom/Bust, but as a Boom/Ordinary, where Ordinary is a Bust (for him) due to what he could've been.

That makes the play not so risky.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:39 pm

Alright since we are laying it out there...

I really liked Stafford, Lienart, Ryan, The Rapist, and Peyton

Sort of liked Rivers, Sanchez, Gabbert and Bradford, Eli

Didn't think much of Smith, Rodgers, Quinn, Russell, Flacco, Cutler, Campbell, Young, Locker or Newton, Leaf

I like luck better than anyone besides Peyton predraft, I probably like RG3 less than I liked Stafford, Peyton and Luck but more than than any others.
Last edited by JCoz on Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:41 pm

jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Does anyone know if Manningham grew up a Browns or Steelers fan?

Not that it makes a huge difference, but if the team you grew up rooting for is the Browns and they offer you the most money it may take away some of the "I don't want to play for that shit and orange mess" stigma.



Word is from Warren people I talk to his family is a big Sukler family. SD may have better 411 as an old, and I mean old, warren cat.

Word is he's TB bound tho.


There was a PFT spot last week where he said he wanted no part of Cleveland....but he did say no disrespect intended....lofl

...but meh...till they get a QB I dont blame him
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby pod2dawg » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:42 pm

jb wrote:
pod2dawg wrote:I really thought Mike Phipps & Paul McDonald were sure fire hits.........which is why I stuck with the healthcare field and not player personnel.


A 4th rounder? A sure fire hit?

Were you smoking a lot of weed in the disco about then?


Damn you JB. Never any drugs. But I will only admit to disco under enhanced interrogation tactics.

And like I said, probably not your talent scout.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:43 pm

Ryan and Lienhart were probably my least favorites ever (that were in the #1 pick discussion, scrubs like Gabbert don't count).

I HATED Ryan. Just saw nothing that impressed me at BC. I really thought he was going to make me eat my words after his rookie year too, now he's just meh to the meh.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:52 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Ryan and Lienhart were probably my least favorites ever (that were in the #1 pick discussion, scrubs like Gabbert don't count).

I HATED Ryan. Just saw nothing that impressed me at BC. I really thought he was going to make me eat my words after his rookie year too, now he's just meh to the meh.


Smith, Young and Locker were easily my least favorite top prospects.

Young was a fucking idiot, I dont know how anyone could have thought he could digest a modern NFL offense, he couldn't even handle what they had at Texas.

And Locker might be the least accurate 4 year starting QB in the last 30 years of college football, if not, ever.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 1:55 pm

Locker doesn't fall into the elite QB prospect basket.

Young was sexy.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby JCoz » Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:10 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Locker doesn't fall into the elite QB prospect basket.

Young was sexy.


Neither does Alex Smith. Thats really being subjective and picky to try and seperate the 1st round QB's from "elite prospects" one mans trash and whatnot...

Young was not thought of like Luck or Peyton sexy or not, thats why the Hometown wouldn't even draft him, if he was an elite prospect they would have gotten a windfall of picks in that spot.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:13 pm

Fire Marshall Bill wrote:
jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Does anyone know if Manningham grew up a Browns or Steelers fan?

Not that it makes a huge difference, but if the team you grew up rooting for is the Browns and they offer you the most money it may take away some of the "I don't want to play for that shit and orange mess" stigma.



Word is from Warren people I talk to his family is a big Sukler family. SD may have better 411 as an old, and I mean old, warren cat.

Word is he's TB bound tho.


There was a PFT spot last week where he said he wanted no part of Cleveland....but he did say no disrespect intended....lofl

...but meh...till they get a QB I dont blame him


I don't get why anyone cares about Mario fucking Manningham. Cuz he's from Cleveland?

He made one catch and suddenly is better than a 3rd WR on a good team?

Someone is gonna overpay for him b/c of that, and I don't want it to be the Browns.

There are like 10 FA WR's that I'd rather have than him.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby HoodooMan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:25 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Ryan and Lienhart were probably my least favorites ever (that were in the #1 pick discussion, scrubs like Gabbert don't count).

I HATED Ryan. Just saw nothing that impressed me at BC. I really thought he was going to make me eat my words after his rookie year too, now he's just meh to the meh.


With your impeccable QB record, e0, NFL teams should be bidding for you; not RG3.

If I was you, I'd be bitter over the injustice of this situation.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:29 pm

Young, "the next Elway" made me laugh.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:19 pm

Headline today from the PD:

Cleveland Browns have had preliminary talks with the Rams about trading up to No. 2 for Griffin III, report says


There's really no reason to read the article (the headline says it all), but if you want to:

http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2012/02/cleveland_browns_have_had_prel.html
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby pod2dawg » Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:11 pm

I put the HOUSE on Elway...and Leaf too. My f%^&&*cking life....jake...pay the juice.
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby jb » Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:15 pm

HoodooMan wrote:I agree that it's very easy to look at someone like Leaf, in hindsight, and point at things that were negatives that aren't present in a current QB prospect and, as a result, give yourself a false sense of security that the current guy has a better chance at success. But stepping back, he just probably doesn't.



Snipped the rest not because TLDR, but space.

You know what I call your definition of "hindsight"?

Research Joe Fan like you and I didn't have access to real-time.

Pro GM's should know that stuff for the top 10 picks. Sure, the Buster Skrine's of the world are a much more unexamined set of prospects, although roadrunner scouts will know things, but you can't tell me for one nanosecond that for the top men it wasn't Common Public Knowledge that Vince Young was a Nancy Boy in 2007. BB in a later interview admitted he'd heard of Leaf's immaturity and he took it as an acceptable risk.

Having said that, you gave me a list of what, 12 guys? That doesn't prove jack-squat rom a so-called 50% failure rate.

The plural of anecdotes is not "data".
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Re: #4, #22, and _________?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:15 pm

Naw Doodoo, I shared your Young fascination.

And I thought Quin was a safe QB.

:-(
“Irony is wasted on the stupid” - Oscar Wilde
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