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Shiny Hood Ornaments

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Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:24 pm

I am on record for being really good with taking Justin Blackmon at #4 (should RG3 be gone), but found this article interesting, and has some stuff that I really agree with:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/kerry_byrne/01/10/julio.jones.trade/index.html?sct=nfl_bf3_a3

It doesn't matter how many so-called "weapons" you put around a quarterback. The Shiny Hood Ornament Man Law tells us that quarterbacks make wide receivers, not the other way around. And right now we have four years of evidence saying that Ryan is not good enough to make his receivers better.


Which is of course not to say that the Browns do not need to add more "playmakers" to the team - they do. It is just to say that those that bemoan Cleveland's lack of WR/TE talent versus the top passing teams have to take into account that the QB's of those teams are almost certainly making those Receivers look better than they probably are; i.e. most of them wouldn't look all-world in, say, Washington.

Let's look at the 3 teams most people regard as the top Offenses:

New England -
Wes Welker - Undrafted, 3rd team
Chad Johnson - 2nd round, 2nd team
Deion Branch - 2nd round, 2nd team
Julian Edelman - 7th round
Rob Gronkowski - 2nd round
Aaron Hernandez - 4th round

New Orleans -
Marques Colston - 7th round
Robert Meachem - 1st round
Devery Henderson - 2nd round
Lance Moore - undrafted, 2nd team (cut by Browns)
Jimmy Graham - 3rd round

Green Bay -
Greg Jennings - 2nd round
Donald Driver - 7th round
Jordy Nelson - 2nd round
James Jones - 3rd round
Jermichael Finley - 3rd round

You could argue that those 3 teams are just obviously superior in selecting talent, and there might be something to that. But it's hard to believe that many of these players would've grown into what they are had they been drafted by a franchise with a carousel at both Head Coach and QB... kind of like a team we know.

And then one would conversely wonder what certain Browns Receivers might look like if they had been drafted by one of the above 3 teams, aka a team with a good QB.

Again, not saying that the Browns WR corps is comparable to those teams... just saying that the QB situation here probably makes the WR/TE situation look worse than it is.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:43 pm

Ha. I said a week ago that Ryan is neither elite nor a franchise guy.

Flacco will also show himself to be neither this weekend.

How are these myths created in the first place? If you ain't 'elite' then you ain't a long term franchise QB anymore.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Jan 11, 2012 12:51 pm

Is the draft position of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers relevant to how good they are at QB?
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:00 pm

HoodooMan wrote:Is the draft position of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers relevant to how good they are at QB?


60% of the top 10 in passing weren't top 4 picks.
The vast majority of starters weren't top 5, hell top 25.

I have no point, I just want to continue this circular conversation. And because I want to see how many more times we can both go around and see the word 'narrative' in print.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:08 pm

I would never take a 1st RD running back, ever, ever , ever. I don't want CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams when the 2nd round guarantees me Shady McCoy, Matt Forte, Ray Rice and MJD.

I'm all about absolutes from now til April.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:16 pm

HoodooMan wrote:Is the draft position of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers relevant to how good they are at QB?


Of course not. And I pointed out that it could be the case that every single one of those guys from all over the draft board was just the Tom Brady/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers of that WR class.

The odds are severely against it, but if that's the case you want to make, have at it.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 1:21 pm

I think I can sum this up and I think we can save it and use every single year it's applicable for whichever team doesn't have Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Stafford:

You need guys like that. Do whatever you can to find the 12.5% of all QBs on earth who are like them.

You can spend as high a pick as you like or find one undrafted or in later rounds but you better not pass on one that ends up elite and you better not trade up and/or spend a really high pick on this year's flavor of the month and have him not be elite.

Now good luck and go get him.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:01 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
HoodooMan wrote:Is the draft position of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers relevant to how good they are at QB?


Of course not. And I pointed out that it could be the case that every single one of those guys from all over the draft board was just the Tom Brady/Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers of that WR class.

The odds are severely against it, but if that's the case you want to make, have at it.


Not the case I'm making.

Remember those five seconds or so around 2002ish when it seemed our investments in KJ, Morgan, and Northcutt made it difficult for opposing defenses when we spread them out, because while none of them were anything close to elite, they were all just good enough (at least it appeared for a short time), that our #3 guy vs. the other team's #3 guy gave us an advantage?

^More like the case I'd make on NE, GB, & NO's receivers. A touch of maybe-great in guys like Gronk & Graham (probably Welker too) and a lot of good.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:28 pm

HoodooMan wrote:More like the case I'd make on NE, GB, & NO's receivers. A touch of maybe-great in guys like Gronk & Graham (probably Welker too) and a lot of good.


I agree with this, and it's kind of the point I'm making.

Good players, but players who look much better due to the guys that are throwing to them. Players that wouldn't look nearly so good if they had Rex Grossman, Colt McCoy, Chad Henne, Tarvaris Jackson, Carson Palmer, etc. throwing to them.

I'm of the belief that every team has at least a couple "good" receivers. This is the NFL, after all, and the law of averages says that it's almost impossible to have 6 WR's and 3 TE's and have all of them be useless. They're just not lucky enough to have been drafted by NE/GB/NO.

If they were, they would be Lance Moore/James Jones/Deion Branch. And Moore/Jones/Branch on an awful team might very well be KJ/Northcutt/Morgan.

Give Peyton Manning 4 WR's off the street - one without a leg - and he'd probably still throw for 300.

WR is the position whose production is most at the mercy of someone else.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:35 pm

At the same time, Tom Brady with the cast of shit receivers he was left with in 2006 right after the Patriots dealt Branch to SEA was a very different Tom Brady than the Tom Brady a year later with Welker & Moss.

06 Brady production = good Top 10 QB
07 Brady production = one of the best all-time seasons for an NFL QB

And FTR, yes, I do believe that adding elite weapons to a middling QB's arsenal has the potential to give him a comparable boost--from middling to Top 10ish, at least.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:42 pm

HoodooMan wrote:At the same time, Tom Brady with the cast of shit receivers he was left with in 2006 right after the Patriots dealt Branch to SEA was a very different Tom Brady than the Tom Brady a year later with Welker & Moss.

06 Brady production = good Top 10 QB
07 Brady production = one of the best all-time seasons for an NFL QB

And FTR, yes, I do believe that adding elite weapons to a middling QB's arsenal has the potential to give him a comparable boost--from middling to Top 10ish, at least.


Not arguing that great WR's can make a great QB better. They are not completely interchangeable.

Just saying that a great QB can make good WR's look great, and a bad QB can make good WR's look bad.

2007 Randy Moss + Tom Brady = KaBLAM!

2007 Randy Moss + Tyler Palko = Pfzzzzz...

Would you not agree that there is MUCH more potential for a QB to make a group of Receivers look bad than a group of Receivers making a QB look bad?
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:05 pm

All depends on the level of receiver & QB you're talking about.

Larry Fitzgerald still looks pretty awesome to me.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:08 pm

HoodooMan wrote:All depends on the level of receiver & QB you're talking about.

Larry Fitzgerald still looks pretty awesome to me.


Valid.

Now imagine him in Green Bay.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:17 pm

I don't know why:

Image
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:20 pm

I don't know why again:

Image

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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby HoodooMan » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:26 pm

^Missing players.

ETA: Easier than a spreadsheet: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=RB&type=position
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:37 pm

HoodooMan wrote:^Missing players.

ETA: Easier than a spreadsheet: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=RB&type=position


Awesome. Thanks.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Sea Foam Green » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:42 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
Would you not agree that there is MUCH more potential for a QB to make a group of Receivers look bad than a group of Receivers making a QB look bad?



Chris Carter and Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper look like a future Hall of Famer.

Maybe it's just a matter of numbers, you need 1 QB, you need multiple receivers.

It's easier to hit a one number lottery, than a 3 player combination.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:51 pm

Sea Foam Green wrote:
Hikohadon wrote:
Would you not agree that there is MUCH more potential for a QB to make a group of Receivers look bad than a group of Receivers making a QB look bad?



Chris Carter and Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper look like a future Hall of Famer.

Maybe it's just a matter of numbers, you need 1 QB, you need multiple receivers.

It's easier to hit a one number lottery, than a 3 player combination.


I had Culpepper on my fantasy team during his MVP season, and thus watched most of his games. He was great that year. It's an absolute falsity to claim that the WR's were bailing him out during his peak just because he finished his career so poorly.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Jan 11, 2012 3:57 pm

^ BUT, BUT, BUT NOT WATCHING CULPEPPER'S GAMES AND WATCHING THE GUYS ON ESPN TOLD ME DIFFERENT!!!

AND RODA AGREES WITH ME!!!
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Sea Foam Green » Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:06 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
Sea Foam Green wrote:
Hikohadon wrote:
Would you not agree that there is MUCH more potential for a QB to make a group of Receivers look bad than a group of Receivers making a QB look bad?



Chris Carter and Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper look like a future Hall of Famer.

Maybe it's just a matter of numbers, you need 1 QB, you need multiple receivers.

It's easier to hit a one number lottery, than a 3 player combination.


I had Culpepper on my fantasy team during his MVP season, and thus watched most of his games. He was great that year. It's an absolute falsity to claim that the WR's were bailing him out during his peak just because he finished his career so poorly.


I'm not saying they bailed him out, It's not like Culpepper played like Dogshit, I'm just saying that playing with two great/elite receivers made him seem to be a better player than he actually was. In other words Culpepper was not an MVP QB, he needed Moss and Carter to be an MVP QB. They made him better.


I thought that's the point that was being made. Great/elite players making their counterparts appear better.

I was simply trying to say that I think it goes both ways, a great qb can make average wr's look good, just like great wr could make an average qb an MVP.

The problem is, you need multiple great wr, and only one great qb, thus it makes sense to take your chances on a great qb
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 11, 2012 4:19 pm

Gotcha. Yes, it might be true that Culpepper wouldn't be MVP without Moss and Carter.

But he was so good that year he would've been Pro Bowl material with Lance Moore and James Jones. And Moore and Jones would've been in that Pro Bowl mix too.
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Re: Shiny Hood Ornaments

Unread postby LakeErieWarriors » Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:56 pm

This definitely works 2 ways. Unfortunately I don't remember saying 'Man, Evan Moore is such a beast, if it weren't for him, Little Colty would be screwed.' Nno matter what the circumstances, Little Colty wasn't able to get Moore the damn ball (as often as he should have), and we all know that sonofabitch (Moore) is a beast. It's been said here before, Evan Moore on the Patriots: perennial Pro Bowler. Evan Moore on the Browns: perennial waste. IMO, Evan Moore is Cleveland's shiniest hood ornament. If we were to get Blackmon and not fix the QB situation, Blackmon will become Cleveland's shiniest hood ornament next year. The shit rolls downhill.
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