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Good God Almighty

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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 3:33 pm

idoctribefan wrote:
hiko wrote:
idoctribefan wrote:A) The Broncos coaching staff is coaching the $h!t outta this team right now. The defense is winning these ballgames for them, and the offensive coaches (as someone said previously in the thread) are tailoring these new wrinkles to fit the personnel that they have. Tebow looked pretty bad the first 3 quarters of that ballgame, but he didn't make any mistakes (the Trent Dilfer circa 2000 method of QBing). Should they play Brady Quinn who has shown that he is not an NFL starting QB? Or should they play Orton who admittedly is the best "Typical QB" of the bunch but was 1-4 as a starter and had the team at the bottom of the crummy AFC West? You're right, it is (almost) all about winning championships. But the 53 players and 20-some coaches on that Denver sideline are trying to win every game by any means necessary. If they have to trot out that dog-and-pony show on offense to keep putting up W's then they should do it.


What they should do with their First Round investment is to see if he can play QB at the pro level, even if that means they look like shit and lose some close games against bad teams that they might win if they ran the triple option. Can a pro offense where he has to take snaps under center and make reads and progressions and make pro-quality passes really be any more ineffective than the crap offense they were playing for 95% of that game? Go ahead and run your stupid college bullshit on the last drive if you must, but try to see if you can develop/salvage the guy as an NFL QB the rest of the time. (to their credit, it seemed that's kind of what they were trying to do)


So you're saying that they should sacrifice a chance of making the playoffs now to plan for the future? If I'm Champ Bailey or Brian Dawkins at the tail-end of my career, I wanna do everything I can to win NOW. And I want my coaching staff to do everything it can to win now.

Don't get me wrong, Hiko....I agree with a lot of what you're saying. If the Broncos were 1-9 then absolutely they should just see if Tim Tebow can be "the guy" for years to come in a pro-style offense. But the people in that organization probably do think they can win a Super Bowl this year with this team (maybe not Elway, he didn't look all that excited after that game-winning TD haha). So they want to do whatever is necessary to win each week. Take a look at their schedule and they've got a shot to win every one of their remaining games. They've got the Bears and Pats, but both in Denver. They win the shitty AFC West and get a home playoff game, then get a good matchup in the playoffs, who knows? You and I don't think it'll happen but that organization thinks it can. If they're sitting at 5-9 in four weeks then absolutely cut that Florida-style spread offense outta the plan. But they're getting the job done with it currently.


This is a Catch 22, since no, you have to keep doing what you're doing now that you started it. They weren't even dreaming of playoffs when Tebow took over - the AFC West obviously sucks and came back to them - they should've stuck with "try to make Tebow play real big-boy QB" to begin with. They're stuck now.

Because, yes, they can make the playoffs, where they will get murdered. And still not know anything more about Tebow than they did when he took over.

Which is why Elway didn't look excited - this is almost worst-case scenario. Tebow and his system were supposed to bomb so he could tell all the fans "See?". Now, they're stuck with this hokey O for the year and probably into next year, where it will bomb like Waterworld.

They just set themselves back a year. But at least they had fun last night.
Last edited by hiko on Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:36 pm

swerb wrote:God just may be on Tebow's side.

How funny would it be to see this dude go 12-4 next year with like 1,900 yards passing, more INTs than TD passes, and a 60.0 QB rating?

People would start praying to the guy, not for him.

I'm cheering for it to keep going. The fact that the whole storyline had me fired up to watch 2 crappy AFC teams on Thurs night says it all.

Image

Dude his stat line last week was epic, 2/8, 69yds, 1 TD = 102 rating, seriously that has to be more difficult to accomplish than going 40/50, 300 yds and 2 TDs.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:23 pm

JCoz wrote:If anyone in the NFL drafted Tebow to play in a "real" pro offense, then they were morons.

I'm not of the belief that its going to work, which is why I wouldn't want to be the broncos running the option, but you know what DEFINITELY won't work? Tim Tebow running a WCO or pretty much any other conventional Pro Offense.

So if you drafted him, I sure as hell hope it would have been to do something unique among NFL teams, because what's clearly much dumber is someone drafting him to run an offense like Brady or Rodgers. And yah, now these are guys who didn't draft him, but regardless of whether you agree or disagree on that type of systems chance at NFL success, this is probably what Tebows shot at QB in the NFL needed to look like.


Drafting Tebow in the First Round was moronic. Drafting him thinking he'll be anything but a specialty-play guy was moronic. But I know Josh McDaniels did it with grooming Tebow into a "real" pro QB in mind. He thought he could "mold" Tebow. I say that was a long shot at best.

Elway and Fox didn't draft him, and I'm of the opinion that they're only playing him so the fans can see how bad he is so they'll shut up. Fact is, the Defense is making that plan backfire. It'll work eventually, but probably not until too late to avoid a fan riot if they draft a replacement QB.

So listening to the fans will cost Denver their 2012 season.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:50 pm

Hiko, what I am saying is that it isn't a given that McDaniels had those intentions, its an assumption. I agree that drafting tebow in the first was moronic, ESPECIALLY if you're intent was to stick Tebow in a conventional style offense.

But if Elway and Fox are playing him to "show fans he sucks", which is an assinine thing for a professional franchise to do, they would play him in a conventional role. He would fail spectacularly there. There is no logical reason for them to cater to his strengths while attempting to show fans how bad of a QB he is. You might counter that with "they are also showing the fans that an option offense wont work in the NFL"....but, really? A Professional Franchise going to all that effort simply as a gutless reaction to a bunch of fans whining about how the backup QB is better than the starter?

A new all time low for NFL upper management there if that were all true.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:01 pm

JCoz wrote:Hiko, what I am saying is that it isn't a given that McDaniels had those intentions, its an assumption. I agree that drafting tebow in the first was moronic, ESPECIALLY if you're intent was to stick Tebow in a conventional style offense.

But if Elway and Fox are playing him to "show fans he sucks", which is an assinine thing for a professional franchise to do, they would play him in a conventional role. He would fail spectacularly there. There is no logical reason for them to cater to his strengths while attempting to show fans how bad of a QB he is. You might counter that with "they are also showing the fans that an option offense wont work in the NFL"....but, really? A Professional Franchise going to all that effort simply as a gutless reaction to a bunch of fans whining about how the backup QB is better than the starter?

A new all time low for NFL upper management there if that were all true.


It's all I can come up with when asked why they decided to start Tebow (who clearly is awful) and why they decided to throw in triple-option (which hasn't worked at the pro level since the 50's). At that point, it was a lost season, start Tebow with the pretense that "you want to see what you have" when really you're almost certain you know what you have, but at least now you can claim "you didn't try".

All while Tim Tebow sucks the team into the forefront of the Luck sweepstakes, which you KNOW Elway wanted to be part of. I can definitely see it.

And, man, is it backfiring on them on all cylinders.

If there's a more plausible explanation that isn't "They thought Tebow running a triple-option O would help them go 4-1", I'm willing to hear it.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:11 pm

Well, My issue is that the progression they have taken with the offense since going with Tebow as a starter doesn't fit the MO you are laying out, IMO..... Do I think they said "hey lets ride the option all the way to divison championship!"? No. But they seem to be doing more and more of what works better for him, even if it still isnt all that decent. It dos actually look like they are attempting to gain yards.

I just dont see ANY reason for them to go that extra mile with the option if they honest to god wanted Tim and the Team to go down in flames, no one was going to make a stink about a professional NFL team not trying out an option offense. No one who mattered anyways.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:15 pm

Also, was the option really run at the pro level in the 50's? Serious question.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:29 pm

JCoz wrote:Well, My issue is that the progression they have taken with the offense since going with Tebow as a starter doesn't fit the MO you are laying out, IMO..... Do I think they said "hey lets ride the option all the way to divison championship!"? No. But they seem to be doing more and more of what works better for him, even if it still isnt all that decent. It dos actually look like they are attempting to gain yards.

I just dont see ANY reason for them to go that extra mile with the option if they honest to god wanted Tim and the Team to go down in flames, no one was going to make a stink about a professional NFL team not trying out an option offense. No one who mattered anyways.


Obviously, this is all conjecture. I'm not sure I even believe my theory, but, like I said, can't think of any other reason to be playing Tebow.

Here's how I see it. They start Tebow against Miami b/c the season is basically toast and it'll sate the public. And he sucks something fierce until the very end (aided by an onside kick). Then he looks awful as Lions blow them out. Then Tebow's Fans scream "Yeah, because you're not putting him an position to succeed!" (which is what fans scream when their "favorite" players aren't getting it done). And Tebow says "Can we try this play and this play? I'm sure it will help, coach." And the coaching staff is still trying to win (whether Elway wants them to or not, he's not going to tell them to lose on purpose), so they try to find something that Tebow can't fuck up, fully prepared to say "See? The offense that Tebow can run won't work in the NFL!"

But then it does against Oakland and KC, who are clearly shocked that Denver is doing that and don't even know how to defend the triple-option anymore since they haven't seen it in years. I didn't watch those games, so I don't know how Tebow looked.

I know how he looked last night and I tell you that that offense is freakin' turrible, but Mark Sanchez did everything he could to keep the Tebow Legend alive and it worked. And because the Denver D bailed Tebow out, his Legend will grow and fans out there will start to believe that that Offense can actually work (like that Offense had ANYTHING to do with the win).

And no way can Fox & Friends bail on it now, because they're "winning".

If Denver gets lucky, they'll get a couple more Detroit-like cups of coffee and it'll help wake up the entire fanbase. But the guy that those fans should REALLY be worshipping (Von Miller) probably won't allow that to happen often enough, especially not in THAT division.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:29 pm

JCoz wrote:Also, was the option really run at the pro level in the 50's? Serious question.


Also, why can't pros be successful if playing exclusively from the shotgun? Why do they need to be under center?
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:32 pm

Dammit Hiko, don't you understand yet? Tebow IS THE REASON that the defense is playing so well.

It's true. I read it on twitter.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:32 pm

JCoz wrote:Also, was the option really run at the pro level in the 50's? Serious question.

I'm not a historian, but the option goes way back. It definitely pre-dates passing offenses. I believe it was the 50's when teams started to realize the advantage of the forward pass, but I think some teams still ran the option quite a bit at that time. Could've been into the 60's, even.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:38 pm

motherscratcher wrote:
JCoz wrote:Also, was the option really run at the pro level in the 50's? Serious question.


Also, why can't pros be successful if playing exclusively from the shotgun? Why do they need to be under center?


Handing the ball off from the shotgun is much less effective than under center (the handoff point is further from the line of scrimmage, RB doesn't have running start, complicates the use of Fullbakcs, etc.) Play action is less effective.

Personally, I don't mind shotgun 50% (or even more) of the time. But I also don't see why taking snaps under center would make a QB ineffective.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:15 pm

motherscratcher wrote:
JCoz wrote:Also, was the option really run at the pro level in the 50's? Serious question.


Also, why can't pros be successful if playing exclusively from the shotgun? Why do they need to be under center?

MO I'm willing to bet most DCs jobs are easier when an opposing QB is in the gun. I don't have numbers in front of me but I'd bet teams run way way less from the gun than they do from under center. Not a lot of surprises when offenses use the gun.

However stats do show plays out of the gun average nearly a yard more per play than plays from under center, so you'd think teams would use the gun more often than the 33-37% they do in recent years.

ETA: hiko hits on part of it, didn't see his post at first.
ETAV.2: here's what I was looking for

Of the 636 shotgun snaps in Week 5, there were only 91 run plays called, or 14 percent. And that includes runs when quarterbacks like Michael Vick and Tim Tebow escaped the pocket. I include those runs because some of them are designed, and mobile quarterbacks have to be considered a run threat by the defense.

http://m.nfl.com/news/09000d5d8230ef31/gun-control-teams-need-balance-out-of-popular-formation/

IIRC there are stats that provide strong evidence toward the suggestion of today's better QBs & the use of shotgun, even to the point of reviewing college QBs and their shotgun/under center ratios and their NFL projections (including the college system QB). It's pretty interesting stuff and respectably accurate for the upper level QB that go early (3rd round and higher IIRC).
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby leadpipe » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:10 pm

Using Tebow to illustrate my point was using an extreme example, I will admit.

But I simply do NOT think, especially in today's game, being married to one system is ideal. I don't think, for instance, it should be impossible to adjust based on your personell.

And I guess I'm a bit more focused on this because I'm not sure the Browns have a guy capable of making a minor tweak. Hell, he can't even get off old school West Coast 101.

Take a guy we all know, and know the be a good coach (despite post season struggles) Marty Schottenheimer, went from pounding the ball here, to wide open. Look at how he adjusted with an aging Joe and Steve DeBerg in KC, oscillating between run happy and pass happy in San Diego....

If you are going to say Colt McCoy is my QB in 2011, then put him in the best spot, then make your adjustments toward molding him into your west coast guy from there. And if you can't make the coaching adjustments from year to year, well, adios, cause the game is changing at a faster rate then ever.

The Browns are running West Coast 101, which hasn't seen the Super Bowl in a long time, so, spare me that the system is so magnificent.

And I understand that the point is to build a championship team, I just don't see how you need to sacrifice to much along the way.

The Walrus needs to show us he ain't bull-headed in his ways like Bill Parcells. Cause Parcell's way doesn't work anymore. But this is the way it's lookin' to me. Throw in the fact I don't think he's invested, and we're stuck with his puppet coach, and well, Jesus H. Christ.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:18 pm

I will put it this way: I think that - in theory - what Shurmur is doing is the right way to go about it.

I also think that Shurmur's playcalling limitations makes it difficult for any QB to perform at his best, be he Colt McCoy or Tom Brady.

Tom Brady in this system would probably be good enough to win on a consistent basis, but it would not be maximizing his talents.

The issue isn't with Shurmur being inflexible to adapting his system to fit the talent/QB, it's that he doesn't know how.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:24 pm

leadpipe wrote:Using Tebow to illustrate my point was using an extreme example, I will admit.

But I simply do NOT think, especially in today's game, being married to one system is ideal. I don't think, for instance, it should be impossible to adjust based on your personell.

And I guess I'm a bit more focused on this because I'm not sure the Browns have a guy capable of making a minor tweak. Hell, he can't even get off old school West Coast 101.

Take a guy we all know, and know the be a good coach (despite post season struggles) Marty Schottenheimer, went from pounding the ball here, to wide open. Look at how he adjusted with an aging Joe and Steve DeBerg in KC, oscillating between run happy and pass happy in San Diego....

If you are going to say Colt McCoy is my QB in 2011, then put him in the best spot, then make your adjustments toward molding him into your west coast guy from there. And if you can't make the coaching adjustments from year to year, well, adios, cause the game is changing at a faster rate then ever.

The Browns are running West Coast 101, which hasn't seen the Super Bowl in a long time, so, spare me that the system is so magnificent.

And I understand that the point is to build a championship team, I just don't see how you need to sacrifice to much along the way.

The Walrus needs to show us he ain't bull-headed in his ways like Bill Parcells. Cause Parcell's way doesn't work anymore. But this is the way it's lookin' to me. Throw in the fact I don't think he's invested, and we're stuck with his puppet coach, and well, Jesus H. Christ.


Good points, and I think BB is the perfect example of a coach that has recognized the ever changing game. A Parcell's disciple, hard nosed old school guy that knows and preached D, yet now runs a team that predicates its game on the O dominating the game. The Colts and Polian recognized this way to go more than a decade ago. Not to suggest balance isn't important b/c it still is, but in a different way than 50/50 playing calling type stuff.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:27 pm

hiko wrote:I will put it this way: I think that - in theory - what Shurmur is doing is the right way to go about it.

I also think that Shurmur's playcalling limitations makes it difficult for any QB to perform at his best, be he Colt McCoy or Tom Brady.

Tom Brady in this system would probably be good enough to win on a consistent basis, but it would not be maximizing his talents.

The issue isn't with Shurmur being inflexible to adapting his system to fit the talent/QB, it's that he doesn't know how.

Agree with this as well. Tom Brady on this team right now of course makes the team better, but ultimately not so much better that we're playoff bound, not when your OL play is as ours is. Change the game plan to suit him better, while adding a player or two then yes probably good enough to fight for a spot every year.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Mon Nov 21, 2011 5:45 pm

hiko wrote:It's all I can come up with when asked why they decided to start Tebow (who clearly is awful) and why they decided to throw in triple-option (which hasn't worked at the pro level since the 50's). At that point, it was a lost season, start Tebow with the pretense that "you want to see what you have" when really you're almost certain you know what you have, but at least now you can claim "you didn't try".


How about the reason being that Orton was not getting the job done, and quite too often gave the ball to the opposing team? And, Denver figured Tebow might give them a better shot at winning games, and they know full well, that the AFC West title is never out of reach.One other thing about Tebow, he rarely makes mistakes. only 1 INT so far this year. He is tied with Aaron Rodgers for a 7:1 TD (throwing) to INT ratio. QB's are generally judged by their QB rating. Some of the "prototype" QB's that Tebow is ranked ahead of: Flacco, Bradford, Cassel, Orton, Kolb. It may not be pretty, but he is efficient and gets the job done. If I am the coach/owner of the team, I really do not care how a player or team go about their business of playing the game. You play to win the game (in my best Herman Edwards voice). Would you rather have Orton or Brady Queen in there since they are "QB" material? Once again, he does not make many mistakes. That is ...what I want out of my QB. Guys like him give other players on his team more confidence, which leads to improved overall team play, which as we have seen, leads to victories. When Tebow took over, even his greatest fans probably did not imagine the Broncos being tied for 1st after 5 weeks of his shenanigans.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:18 pm

Lubber wrote:
hiko wrote:It's all I can come up with when asked why they decided to start Tebow (who clearly is awful) and why they decided to throw in triple-option (which hasn't worked at the pro level since the 50's). At that point, it was a lost season, start Tebow with the pretense that "you want to see what you have" when really you're almost certain you know what you have, but at least now you can claim "you didn't try".


How about the reason being that Orton was not getting the job done, and quite too often gave the ball to the opposing team? And, Denver figured Tebow might give them a better shot at winning games, and they know full well, that the AFC West title is never out of reach.One other thing about Tebow, he rarely makes mistakes. only 1 INT so far this year. He is tied with Aaron Rodgers for a 7:1 TD (throwing) to INT ratio. QB's are generally judged by their QB rating. Some of the "prototype" QB's that Tebow is ranked ahead of: Flacco, Bradford, Cassel, Orton, Kolb. It may not be pretty, but he is efficient and gets the job done. If I am the coach/owner of the team, I really do not care how a player or team go about their business of playing the game. You play to win the game (in my best Herman Edwards voice). Would you rather have Orton or Brady Queen in there since they are "QB" material? Once again, he does not make many mistakes. That is ...what I want out of my QB. Guys like him give other players on his team more confidence, which leads to improved overall team play, which as we have seen, leads to victories. When Tebow took over, even his greatest fans probably did not imagine the Broncos being tied for 1st after 5 weeks of his shenanigans.


I still maintain that Tebow is not a solution for another QB being bad. And no one had any expectation that Tebow would do anything but fall flat on his face.

Their expectations will be met, it'll just take a few weeks longer than they thought.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Mon Nov 21, 2011 8:45 pm

hiko wrote:I still maintain that Tebow is not a solution for another QB being bad. And no one had any expectation that Tebow would do anything but fall flat on his face.

Their expectations will be met, it'll just take a few weeks longer than they thought.


Good thing you are not the talent advisor for the Broncos, otherwise Elway would of been gone after his first year since his stats were much worse than Tebow's. How can you argue against a guy bringing home W's? Especially the way he went down the field on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL to win the game? You also cannot discount the intangibles, mainly that he has brought huge confidence to a team that was ready to pack it in a few weeks ago. At the NFL level, many of the close games are won due to chemistry and confidence.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:07 pm

Lubber wrote:
hiko wrote:I still maintain that Tebow is not a solution for another QB being bad. And no one had any expectation that Tebow would do anything but fall flat on his face.

Their expectations will be met, it'll just take a few weeks longer than they thought.


Good thing you are not the talent advisor for the Broncos, otherwise Elway would of been gone after his first year since his stats were much worse than Tebow's. How can you argue against a guy bringing home W's? Especially the way he went down the field on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL to win the game? You also cannot discount the intangibles, mainly that he has brought huge confidence to a team that was ready to pack it in a few weeks ago. At the NFL level, many of the close games are won due to chemistry and confidence.


I can and will discount intangibles. Not that they don't exist, but they are way down any list of important QB attributes. Well behind things like accuracy and arm strength. Tebow can't hit the damd clowns mouth at the state fair. The broncos have won in spite of him, not because of him, no matter how awe inspiring he is.

And stop with the chemistry and confidence bullshit. Those things are results, not causes. There is a reason you've never heard anyone say "that team wanted it more but lost anyway.". Funny how in retrospect, it's always the team wanted it more that wins. And it's always the teams that are winning that have the chemistry.

Lastly, I'm going to pretend you didn't just tell me that Tebow is as good as Elway because of some 25 year old stats you just looked up.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:13 pm

Lubber wrote:
hiko wrote:I still maintain that Tebow is not a solution for another QB being bad. And no one had any expectation that Tebow would do anything but fall flat on his face.

Their expectations will be met, it'll just take a few weeks longer than they thought.


Good thing you are not the talent advisor for the Broncos, otherwise Elway would of been gone after his first year since his stats were much worse than Tebow's. How can you argue against a guy bringing home W's? Especially the way he went down the field on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL to win the game? You also cannot discount the intangibles, mainly that he has brought huge confidence to a team that was ready to pack it in a few weeks ago. At the NFL level, many of the close games are won due to chemistry and confidence.


Did I say I'd get rid of Elway? No. He obviously had the requisite skills to be a good NFL QB.

Tebow does not. He will bomb harder than Nagasaki.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:37 am

hiko wrote:Tebow does not. He will bomb harder than Nagasaki.



Too soon.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby bookelly » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:50 am

If I had Tebow I'd run http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=825031. It would at least be entertaining.

I'd also like to see the Browns run this with RG3 and McCoy. Add Blackmon and we'd give D's fits with this.

Of course you'd have other formations, but it would give us a whole new dimension...to say the least.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Tue Nov 22, 2011 8:28 am

motherscratcher wrote:
Lubber wrote:
hiko wrote:I still maintain that Tebow is not a solution for another QB being bad. And no one had any expectation that Tebow would do anything but fall flat on his face.

Their expectations will be met, it'll just take a few weeks longer than they thought.


Good thing you are not the talent advisor for the Broncos, otherwise Elway would of been gone after his first year since his stats were much worse than Tebow's. How can you argue against a guy bringing home W's? Especially the way he went down the field on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL to win the game? You also cannot discount the intangibles, mainly that he has brought huge confidence to a team that was ready to pack it in a few weeks ago. At the NFL level, many of the close games are won due to chemistry and confidence.


I can and will discount intangibles. Not that they don't exist, but they are way down any list of important QB attributes. Well behind things like accuracy and arm strength. Tebow can't hit the damd clowns mouth at the state fair. The broncos have won in spite of him, not because of him, no matter how awe inspiring he is.

And stop with the chemistry and confidence bullshit. Those things are results, not causes. There is a reason you've never heard anyone say "that team wanted it more but lost anyway.". Funny how in retrospect, it's always the team wanted it more that wins. And it's always the teams that are winning that have the chemistry.

Lastly, I'm going to pretend you didn't just tell me that Tebow is as good as Elway because of some 25 year old stats you just looked up.


You are correct, confidence is a result of a team winning which Tebow has done 4 out of 5 times so far even though he is not your prototype QB and his accuracy would be bad at a fair as you pointed out. Some guys just have the IT factor. Accuracy will come with time and practice. Heart and moxie cannot be learned. Elway liked to give the ball to the other team, Tebow doesn't. If you do not turn the ball over, you give ourself a good chance to win the game, which is once again the reason you play the game.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby pod2dawg » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:07 am

Tebow can, has, and will win games at the pro level. What he won't do is hold-up physically. He will get hurt. Personally, I hope he rolls and proves the pundits wrong, but wear and tear will catch up.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:08 am

Lubber wrote:You are correct, confidence is a result of a team winning which Tebow has done 4 out of 5 times so far even though he is not your prototype QB and his accuracy would be bad at a fair as you pointed out. Some guys just have the IT factor. Accuracy will come with time and practice. Heart and moxie cannot be learned.


That's not true. Cleveland State offers an associates degree in Moxie, and Heart is an elective at several local schools.

"It factor". (facepalm)

Lubber wrote:Accuracy will come with time and practice.


Of course it will. Just ask Derek Anderson and the 7 million ex-QB's like him.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:26 pm

Lubber wrote:You are correct, confidence is a result of a team winning which Tebow has done 4 out of 5 times so far even though he is not your prototype QB and his accuracy would be bad at a fair as you pointed out. Some guys just have the IT factor. Accuracy will come with time and practice. Heart and moxie cannot be learned. Elway liked to give the ball to the other team, Tebow doesn't. If you do not turn the ball over, you give ourself a good chance to win the game, which is once again the reason you play the game.


See, there you go again throwing around words like "it factor", "heart", and moxie". Are you serious with that? I'm sure that a certain amount of confidence (that's what all those terms really mean) is important, but not nearly as much as people make it out to be.

If what we want is moxie, we might as well sign Matt Mcgloin to a rookie FA contract after the draft and call it a day. Because I've been told he is the moxiest mofo this side of the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

I mean, read what you are writing. You are basically saying "screw accuracy and overall ability, give me the guy with MOXIE!"

Besides, I'm of the opinion that Colt McCoy already has just as much moxie as Tebow. What I'm not sure of is if he is accurate enough, can read a defense fast enough, and has enough arm to throw a deep ball to stretch a defense. And those are the reasons that we are talking about QBs to begin with.

I'll be looking for a full mea culpa from you when Teobw inevitable starts to suck and "he's not winning" anymore.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:27 pm

Even John Elway doesn't want him:

Gary Miller asked Elway the following question on his weekly radio show on 102.3 FM, via the Denver Post.

“Any closer to feeling if you have your quarterback on this team?”

Elway flatly answered “no.”


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/21/elway-broncos-are-no-closer-to-finding-quarterback-of-future/

You see, football people - almost every single one - feel like Tebow has no shot at long term success. Fans, many of which are blithering idiots, are the only ones that think Tebow is any good.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:35 pm

Also, I've been thinking about the whole "Tebow has gone 4-1" thing. What I really think is that Orlando Franklin, the rookie right tackle has come into his own. Yeah that's it.

Orlando Franklin has gone 4-1 in the last 5 games. That fat fucker is chock full of moxie. Has to be. He plays to win the game.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Tue Nov 22, 2011 2:14 pm

motherscratcher wrote:Also, I've been thinking about the whole "Tebow has gone 4-1" thing. What I really think is that Orlando Franklin, the rookie right tackle has come into his own. Yeah that's it.

Orlando Franklin has gone 4-1 in the last 5 games. That fat fucker is chock full of moxie. Has to be. He plays to win the game.


True. He's a Winner.

Fans of his have even set off the new craze "Franklin-ing":

Image
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:03 pm

Lubber wrote:You are correct, confidence is a result of a team winning which Tebow has done 4 out of 5 times so far even though he is not your prototype QB and his accuracy would be bad at a fair as you pointed out. Some guys just have the IT factor. Accuracy will come with time and practice. Heart and moxie cannot be learned. Elway liked to give the ball to the other team, Tebow doesn't. If you do not turn the ball over, you give ourself a good chance to win the game, which is once again the reason you play the game.

There is actually some research on this, and it suggests your statement is not true.

This is the only bit of info I have but IIRC there is more out there.

The future NFL success of quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds of the draft can be projected with a high degree of accuracy by using just two statistics from college: games started and completion percentage.
This theory was introduced in Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and further refined in Pro Football Prospectus 2007. The projection created by these stats is known as the Lewin Career Forecast, after the creator of the theory, David Lewin, who now works for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. It isn't surprising that it didn't happen. Having a high completion percentage (above 60 percent or so) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it. Games started are important because the more film that exists of a player in game conditions, the easier it is to find weaknesses that might come out against different opponents or different schemes. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measureables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch (26 starters), Leaf (24 starts) or Akili Smith (19 starts).
The Lewin Career Forecast only applies to the first two rounds because it assumes that with enough game film to judge, scouts can accurate identify players who are "system quarterbacks" and will not succeed in the NFL, and those players appropriately fall on draft day (Texas Tech quarterbacks like Graham Harrell are a good historical example.)
From 1996-2005, the worst quarterback drafted in the top two rounds who had 37 or more college starts and a completion rate above 60 percent was Eli Manning. When the worst projection belongs to a quarterback who just led a two-minute drill to finish off a historic Super Bowl upset, that's a good projection system. However, the Lewin system has mixed successes (Kevin Kolb) with failures (Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Brian Brohm) in recent years, and we're likely to revisit it in the near future.
College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics, March 2006
Pro Football Prospectus 2006, "Projecting College Quarterbacks"
Pro Football Prospectus 2007, "Projecting College Quarterbacks Revisited"


Of course there is no magical formula and this theory isn't end all be all, but it seems we are gathering more & more interesting data points for these evaluations as time goes on.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/FO-basics
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill » Tue Nov 22, 2011 4:07 pm

hiko wrote:
motherscratcher wrote:Also, I've been thinking about the whole "Tebow has gone 4-1" thing. What I really think is that Orlando Franklin, the rookie right tackle has come into his own. Yeah that's it.

Orlando Franklin has gone 4-1 in the last 5 games. That fat fucker is chock full of moxie. Has to be. He plays to win the game.


True. He's a Winner.

Fans of his have even set off the new craze "Franklin-ing":

Image


That looks like a Denny's 15 lb burger

* Nah...more like a 6 lb'r
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Tue Nov 22, 2011 5:45 pm

hiko wrote:Even John Elway doesn't want him:

Gary Miller asked Elway the following question on his weekly radio show on 102.3 FM, via the Denver Post.

“Any closer to feeling if you have your quarterback on this team?”

Elway flatly answered “no.”


http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/21/elway-broncos-are-no-closer-to-finding-quarterback-of-future/

You see, football people - almost every single one - feel like Tebow has no shot at long term success. Fans, many of which are blithering idiots, are the only ones that think Tebow is any good.


Long term success? That is something we shall see. I have my doubts with long term success as well. My main point which many of you seem to miss is that right now in 2011, he seems to be the best option (no pun intended) amongst the 3 QBs the Broncos have to win games. We all know Quinn's track record all too well. Orton will give you 300 yards, but also 100 yards to the other team. The only other guy in the stadium with a better chance at winning games is Elway. QB of the future? hard to say. QB of right now for the Broncos? Definitely.

I agree with the points about accuracy not improving much during a NFL career. However, due to Tebow basically just learing how to throw within the last year or so, the jury is still out on him on this one. There is no question he will need to improve on that if he wants any chance of being the guy moving into the future. At the very least he will be a great wrinkle in the Broncos offense should they Luck out or get some other gem at QB.

One thing I do not get is the Tebow hatred by many people. We finally have a guy not jumping on the back of pickupsm not raping chicks in bars, not doing drugs, etc.. and there seems to be so much hatred for him doing well.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby googleeph2 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:13 pm

I don't get the hatred, either. Especially since we're in a decidedly post-Christian era.
How can anyone be bitter or threatened over Christianity in 2011? Unless it's just serves as a socially safe target. Like dumb dads, or mean police men. Or evil business... men.

But you don't build your offense around the guy. As Hiko said in his article, you're just biding your time until you decide to install an offense that can win a Super Bowl. Also, if he is injured mid-season, now what do you do?
I don't think Quinn or Orton are running the option.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby googleeph2 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:21 pm

Oh, and FUDU, nice link but I disagree with their statement that Couch was a bust. He was just in a no-win situation. I liken him to Vinny Testaverde, who started his career with an expansion team, too.

Couch had some success, and if his health could have kept up, he had value in the league (per Ron Wolf).

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... owns-myths
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:28 pm

Nobody hates Tebow, people hate (or are sick of) all the hype about his NFL life and all the observers ignoring the deficiencies in his game and in turn talking him up based up his intangibles and past successes in college. Hence so many people feel the ONLY reason he is Denver's starting QB is b/c of fan/media pressure due to him being picked in the 1st rd.

Also I think people are sick of hearing about Tebow's faith b/c frankly we don't hear about the faith of other non raping & back of pick up jumping players like Brady, Rodgers or Charles Johnson. Tebow is very spiritual, good for him, now who gives a fuck.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:30 pm

googleeph2 wrote:Oh, and FUDU, nice link but I disagree with their statement that Couch was a bust. He was just in a no-win situation. I liken him to Vinny Testaverde, who started his career with an expansion team, too.

Couch had some success, and if his health could have kept up, he had value in the league (per Ron Wolf).

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... owns-myths

I can see that POV on Couch, I read the guy as saying more that Couch shouldn't have been so highly touted and definitely not a #1 overall. If Couch was an early 2nd rd pick no way we'd be calling him a bust.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby googleeph2 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 6:43 pm

FUDU wrote:Nobody hates Tebow, people hate (or are sick of) all the hype about his NFL life and all the observers ignoring the deficiencies in his game and in turn talking him up based up his intangibles and past successes in college. Hence so many people feel the ONLY reason he is Denver's starting QB is b/c of fan/media pressure due to him being picked in the 1st rd.

Also I think people are sick of hearing about Tebow's faith b/c frankly we don't hear about the faith of other non raping & back of pick up jumping players like Brady, Rodgers or Charles Johnson. Tebow is very spiritual, good for him, now who gives a fuck.


I generally avoid non-Browns NFL coverage. Hate ESPN; probably am sick of Chris Berman to the degree many are sick of Tebow. If I hear Berman for 20 seconds, I want to physically hurt him. Like by fracturing his sinus cavity with my right hand. Seriously.

So I hear the name of Tebow, but hear the hate more than the hype. I bet the casual observer senses he is getting picked on.

And, there is the 4-1 record, winning the game again last week...

From what I can tell, he doesn't Gabbert-away from contact. I saw him get clobbered last Sun. Doesn't seem to Hillis himself out of games.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Tue Nov 22, 2011 7:41 pm

googleeph2 wrote:I don't get the hatred, either. Especially since we're in a decidedly post-Christian era.
How can anyone be bitter or threatened over Christianity in 2011? Unless it's just serves as a socially safe target. Like dumb dads, or mean police men. Or evil business... men.

But you don't build your offense around the guy. As Hiko said in his article, you're just biding your time until you decide to install an offense that can win a Super Bowl. Also, if he is injured mid-season, now what do you do?
I don't think Quinn or Orton are running the option.


As the resident Atheist, I'll field this one.

I tried to think why he irritates me so, and one of the first things I thought of was the in-your-faceness of his faith. But then I realized that Kurt Warner does the same thing, and I really like him despite that. I can only speak for myself, but that's definitely not it.

I think - for me - it's the insane level of hype this guy receives, like FUDU said. People fawning all over him, "Tebowing", jokes like "Superman wears Tebow pajamas". Never have I seen the amount of undeserved adoration that Tebow has received.

To use a Christian term, he is a false idol that many have taken to worshipping.

Naturally, there is a backlash to that.

So he's become the Red Sox or the Cowboys or the 2007 Patriots or LeBron or anything else that ESPN has over-covered ad nauseum, and just like all those entities I thus root for him to fail so the coverage overload on him will come to a stop.

And I'm certainly not alone. That is where the "hate" comes from.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Nov 22, 2011 9:17 pm

I liked the guy in college, and I like him now.

I thought he was a great college player, I didn't want to touch him with a ten foot pole as a pro QB.

I'm not the least bit religious, I ignore his religious beliefs as I would anyone else. Another reason I have no issue with it is it seems very sincere to me. In a nutshell the guy seems genuine. There are many of his ilk who are not.

I don't believe Denver is mortaging their future by taking advantage of his skills. It is unfortunate that his skills are those that aren't going to produce winning long term, but as I mentioned upthread, it ain't that damn hard to coach to what you got, instead of pounding what you got into your methods. As a matter of fact, coaching to the players strengths has a long history of winning in this league. It's why Denver will win more than the Browns this year.

It's not his fault someone was stupid enough to draft him first round. Nor is it his fault he seems to be living a perfect life. This is where much of the hate was bourne, and it was born while he was still at Florida. It's kinda like how some guys hate Brad Pitt - as if their pullin' chicks from the same pool. Hiko lists some reasons he dislikes him, and they are valid, they just aren't his fault.

And Tim Couch was not in a no-win situation. Great players at that position create winning situations. Did he walk into Pittsburgh? Certainly not. But the guy wasn't good, nor did the Browns "ruin" him. See my Mark Sanchez comments. Couch played the game slow and couldn't see the field. What you saw when Kelly Holcomb took over was not an aberration. They were getting decent line play that year, and they found a guy that could go through progressions and not get bent when option one was covered. Don't know how many times in Couch's career I was down there while guys were running free on one side of the field while Timmy was oblivious to that fact. There's a reason he never took another snap - and it wasn't injury.

Googs brings up a valid point. It's the reason giving Mike Vick a huge contract was assinine. The odds of im Tebow, as a full time starter, being in decent shape for weeks 17 and 18 should he get them there is slim. That style (leaving all opinions of it aside) is going to create a 7-10 games a year player. And, instead of a QB's shelf life, he'll have a running backs. So, even if he could learn some things necessary, by the time he does, his career will be shot.

Lastly, I think it's facinating how he blows every game, yet wins, just fanning the flames on both sides. He's taking his polarizing persona to a new level by doing this.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:21 pm

leadpipe wrote:It's not his fault someone was stupid enough to draft him first round. Nor is it his fault he seems to be living a perfect life. This is where much of the hate was bourne, and it was born while he was still at Florida. It's kinda like how some guys hate Brad Pitt - as if their pullin' chicks from the same pool. Hiko lists some reasons he dislikes him, and they are valid, they just aren't his fault.


'Tis true. The media and the fans are responsible for my unreasonable dislike. But it has gotten to the point that hearing his name or seeing his face triggers a chemical reaction in my brain.

leadpipe wrote:He's taking his polarizing persona to a new level by doing this.


Just emphasizing why I want him to vanish.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:36 pm

T-Bow sells tickets = Alpha & Omega
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:28 pm

I don't mind Tebow, and I hope he does well. I just don't think he will. Not as a long term NFL QB. I kind of hope he proves me wrong. I have no reason to hope fornhis failure, as long as he isn't playing the Browns. And I certainly don't hate him. But I would hate it if the Browns thought of him as thenanswer at QB, the way Broncos fans (and Lubber ;-) ;) :wink: ) apparently do.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:33 pm

motherscratcher wrote:I don't mind Tebow, and I hope he does well. I just don't think he will. Not as a long term NFL QB. I kind of hope he proves me wrong. I have no reason to hope fornhis failure, as long as he isn't playing the Browns. And I certainly don't hate him. But I would hate it if the Browns thought of him as thenanswer at QB, the way Broncos fans (and Lubber ;-) ;) :wink: ) apparently do.



HAHa. As I said, not sure if he is the answer to the future. He is the answer right now. For him to be the answer next year and into the future, he will have to be able to be much more accurate, and be able to endure a full season without missing much time do to his play. One thing he does have going for him is that since he does not pass too much, he does not get tackled by many guys bigger then him. Did you see Revis duck like a little school girl when Tebow came at him?


He seems to be a genuine good guy and I am enjoying the ride he is taking the Denver fans on. Don't hate him because ESPN is drooling all over him. if that is the case, don't watch ESPN.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:39 pm

hiko great call in bringing up Kurt Warner. Forgot about his strong outward showing of his faith, probably b/c the attention he garnered as an NFL QB was more due to high level of play. The hype surrounding him was always in hindsight of his play and his numbers, and also about his story of getting to the NFL. His story was never presented as a parable of misdirection to take focus off of his on field abilities.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:55 pm

Lubber wrote:He seems to be a genuine good guy.


This is incredibly naive, especially after the Hillis fiasco and the shit that went down at PSU. He might be a genuine good guy. He might not. You don't know him. In this day and age, it just seems dumb to base how you feel about a player on "he seems like a good guy" (not saying that's what you're doing).
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:17 pm

hiko wrote:
Lubber wrote:He seems to be a genuine good guy.


This is incredibly naive, especially after the Hillis fiasco and the shit that went down at PSU. He might be a genuine good guy. He might not. You don't know him. In this day and age, it just seems dumb to base how you feel about a player on "he seems like a good guy" (not saying that's what you're doing).


I do not know him personally, but I know the guy you claim to be the moron who drafted him, so I will take his word for it.

I am not basing my feeling on that, but rather my amazement as to all the hate towards him.
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby hiko » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:52 pm

Lubber wrote:I know the guy you claim to be the moron who drafted him.


No, it was a good idea to trade up in the 1st Round (no less) to select a player that doesn't have the requisite skills to play QB at the NFL level.

I hereby retract said slander.

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"It's good that you made that awful thing, Bart!"
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Re: Good God Almighty

Unread postby Lubber » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:55 pm

hiko wrote:
Lubber wrote:I know the guy you claim to be the moron who drafted him.


No, it was a good idea to trade up in the 1st Round (no less) to select a player that doesn't have the requisite skills to play QB at the NFL level.

I hereby retract said slander.

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"It's good that you made that awful thing, Bart!"


Nice to see you come around finally Hiko.

Retraction accepted
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