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Analysis: Quarterbacks Taken In The Top Five Picks

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Analysis: Quarterbacks Taken In The Top Five Picks

Unread postby consigliere » Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:53 am

Very well done piece by Jesse here.

I don't think it will change anyones stance, but I think it does show that there have been some great booms and great busts at the QB position at the top of the draft.

If this were to be separated from a pass/fail setup with the boom/bust connotation, and instead we had five rankings with boom at the top and bust at the bottom with above average, average, and below average in between, I wonder how these rankings would have looked. A lot of the "bust" QBs I thought were actually pretty solid, like Vick, Everett, Collins, etc.......

But, again, the whole premise is with a top 5 pick you are trying to get that franchise guy and hit a HR, so it really is boom or bust.

Great job.

Now, here's hoping to Quinn or Russell coming to the Browns on draft day. :twisted:
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Unread postby furls » Sun Apr 22, 2007 9:05 am

It was good and informative. Nice work Jesse.

A 1-5 system would have been good too. I would say on a scale of 1-5 (1 - Bad, 5 - Good) Vick, Everett, Collins, and George were 2s. They were exactly serviceable (not sure actually if Vick is serviceable).

But I think the message here with Boom or Bust is that most guys would hope to get more than serviceable out of top five picks. Nothing is science and like I have been saying, you could literally make a point for the Browns drafting for any position because they are weak everywhere.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sun Apr 22, 2007 10:42 am

I'm curious what the boom/bust ratio would be at RB and OT in the Top 5/10, considering those are the other two positions targetted with our 1st pick.

jesse? Anyone?
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Unread postby hermanfontenot » Sun Apr 22, 2007 11:12 am

I'm curious what the boom/bust ratio would be at RB and OT in the Top 5/10, considering those are the other two positions targetted with our 1st pick.


I'm working on similar surveys for running backs and tackles. RBs should be out in a couple of days. I might or might not finish Tackles- I really don't think the Browns are going to take Joe Thomas under any circumstances, so I might not bother.

Just from a casual glance at the RB list I've compiled, the bust ratio seems higher than for quarterbacks. Injuries are such a factor for running backs. Guys like Kijana Carter never even got started in the league because they got hurt. Even some great backs like Billy Sims and Earl Campbell really don't play all that long. Not to mention running backs have the shortest shelf life of pretty much any position. Tackles seem like a safer bet because they're capable of playing such a long time.
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Unread postby consigliere » Sun Apr 22, 2007 12:21 pm

HermanFontenot wrote:I'm working on similar surveys for running backs and tackles. RBs should be out in a couple of days.


Awesome, and I figured so. Look forward to it.

I might or might not finish Tackles- I really don't think the Browns are going to take Joe Thomas under any circumstances, so I might not bother.


You suck. :lol:

And, you just pissed off Pup. :twisted:

Just from a casual glance at the RB list I've compiled, the bust ratio seems higher than for quarterbacks. Injuries are such a factor for running backs. Guys like Kijana Carter never even got started in the league because they got hurt. Even some great backs like Billy Sims and Earl Campbell really don't play all that long. Not to mention running backs have the shortest shelf life of pretty much any position. Tackles seem like a safer bet because they're capable of playing such a long time.


Good point. Yeah, I think of the three positions, health usually stays longer with the tackles and QBs.....immediate impact probably more with RBs.....and the bust/boom rate the greatest with RBs, then QBs, and then tackles. In a casual glance, OTs taken in the top 5 have fared very well I believe.
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Unread postby hermanfontenot » Sun Apr 22, 2007 12:37 pm

Just in case I don't finish the tackle survey, here's the list of top-five picks at that position since 1967, for arguments sake:

Tackles

1968
#1- Ron Yary, USC (Minnesota)
#4- Russ Washington, Missouri (San Diego)

1969
#2- George Kunz, Notre Dame (Atlanta)

1973
#3- Lionel Antoine, Southern Illinois (Chicago)

1977
#4- Marvin Powell, USC (N.Y. Jets)

1978
#4- Chris Ward, Ohio State (N.Y. Jets)

1980
#3- Anthony Munoz, USC (Cincinnati)

1983
#4- Chris Hinton, Northwestern (Denver)

1984
#2- Dean Steinkuhler, Nebraska (Houston)

1985
#2- Bill Fralic, Pitt (Detroit)

1988
#4- Paul Gruber, Wisconsin (Tampa Bay)

1989
#2- Tony Mandarich, Michigan State (Green Bay)

1995
#2- Tony Boselli, USC (Jacksonville)

1996
#4- Jonathan Ogden, UCLA (Baltimore)

1997
#1- Orlando Pace, Ohio State (St. Louis)

2000
#3- Chris Samuels, Alabama (Washington)

2001
#2- Leonard Davis, Texas (Arizona)

2002
#4- Mike Williams, Texas (Buffalo)

2004
#2- Robert Gallery, Iowa (Oakland)

2006
#4- D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia (N.Y. Jets)

20 tackles taken in the Top 5 of the Draft since 1967
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Unread postby BadBecks » Sun Apr 22, 2007 11:28 pm

While I'm sure it may have been a fun aticle for the author to write, I don't think it changes a damn thing as far as the out look for this Saturday's draft outlook is concerned. IMO...of course.

Quinn's pre-draft grade is pretty much parallel to E. Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Leinhart, Young, and Cutler.

With or without these propaganda articles, the Browns need an UPGRADE at QB now. That is a fact and if the need is not addressed this year, the Browns will most cerainly be back in the top-5 next year's draft. I will guarantee that. Just ask Detroit and Oakland how it feels one year later after passing Lienhart and Cutler in last year's draft.

QB is only the most important position on the field after all.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Apr 22, 2007 11:59 pm

Many of these threads turn into Qb vs. offensive line.

At the end of the day, it's not a chicken vs. the egg argument.

If you want to win, you need both.

Whomever they pick needs to be good. End of story.
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Unread postby pup » Mon Apr 23, 2007 8:15 am

With or without these propaganda articles, the Browns need an UPGRADE at QB now. That is a fact and if the need is not addressed this year, the Browns will most cerainly be back in the top-5 next year's draft. I will guarantee that. Just ask Detroit and Oakland how it feels one year later after passing Lienhart and Cutler in last year's draft.


Actually, taking a QB, who is not going to play in 2007 is the fastest way to gaurantee being back in the top 5. Even if he does play, he probably won't survive the season, with Coo-Coo Mother Tucker and Joe Andruzzi patroling the right side of our line.
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Unread postby consigliere » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:34 am

Nice follow up piece today with the RBs.

The RBs have a lower bust-rate than the QBs, although I thought that the gap was much wider before reading these two pieces. Granted, this is all just focused on Top 5 picks....

Anyway, it looks like if you want a "quick fix" you take the RB.....if you a more "long term fix" you take the QB (or OT).

#5- Jamal Lewis, Tennessee (Baltimore)


The Ravens took a gamble on Lewis, who had suffered a severe knee injury at UT, and despite a second knee injury in 2001 and a prison stint in 2004, the gamble paid off. Lewis breached 1,000 yards six times in Baltimore, including 2,066 in 2003. It’s worth noting that Phil Savage isn’t scared off by running backs that were injured in college. Boom


Good point about Savage and RBs in college having injury issues.

And when it comes to the most important statistic of all, it’s a runaway for the passers. Six of the 36 top-five quarterbacks led their original teams to Super Bowl championships, and Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb were conference champions with their first teams. In contrast, just two top-five running backs- Walter Payton and Tony Dorsett- won world titles with their original teams, and the Cowboys were already an elite team when they drafted Dorsett.


Thought that was another good point, although, again we are only limiting it to Top 5 picks.
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Unread postby Dozen » Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:38 am

The 8ball comparison caught my eye as well too. I dont think AP's injury history will weigh in too much. Something I saw last week when Grossi was on Les Levines show, Grossi stated AP had 3 major injuries at college. But if were calling it "Major" wouldnt a surgery likely be involved? This puzzles me when this is said.
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Unread postby mattvan1 » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:37 am

Pup
Actually, taking a QB, who is not going to play in 2007 is the fastest way to gaurantee being back in the top 5.


Well, not to pick another fight with you :-) :smile: :) but after having suffered through 8 years of rudderless suck (TM JB) what's one more, IF you feel that Quinn or Russel is the real deal? I don't, BTW, but if Savage thinks that either of the QBs are too good to pass up, then I am OK with another year of 5-11. I am looking to upgrade my season tix location, so this gives me an opportunity.
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Unread postby BadBecks » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:56 am

And when it comes to the most important statistic of all, it’s a runaway for the passers. Six of the 36 top-five quarterbacks led their original teams to Super Bowl championships, and Steve McNair and Donovan McNabb were conference champions with their first teams. In contrast, just two top-five running backs- Walter Payton and Tony Dorsett- won world titles with their original teams, and the Cowboys were already an elite team when they drafted Dorsett.


Are we just pretending Jamal Lewis leading the Ravens offense to a Super Bowl win as a rookie didn't happen again?
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Unread postby hermanfontenot » Wed Apr 25, 2007 12:04 pm

Are we just pretending Jamal Lewis leading the Ravens offense to a Super Bowl win as a rookie didn't happen again?


No, we just fucked up there.
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Unread postby pup » Wed Apr 25, 2007 12:52 pm

Pup
Quote:
Actually, taking a QB, who is not going to play in 2007 is the fastest way to gaurantee being back in the top 5.


Well, not to pick another fight with you but after having suffered through 8 years of rudderless suck (TM JB) what's one more, IF you feel that Quinn or Russel is the real deal? I don't, BTW, but if Savage thinks that either of the QBs are too good to pass up, then I am OK with another year of 5-11. I am looking to upgrade my season tix location, so this gives me an opportunity.


I would much rather a progression from 4 wins to 7 wins, to the playoffs. I think it is reasonable to expect this team to compete for the playoffs in 2008. The number of wins this year won't really change that expectation, so if progress does not equate to more wins, I could deal with it.

If Phil thinks BQ or JR is the answer to the QB position for the next decade, then of course I am down with that. This is all about the ability of our front office to be right. I really do not care what position they decide to take, just be right. I am so in favor of Joe Thomas because I think he is A) The safest choice and B) I think it is our biggest area of need.

With that, I realize we need to upgrade QB and find a long term RB solution. But if Phil is wrong with whichever pick he makes, this franchise is in big trouble. We will be looking at a new HC in 2008 (most wish it was now). After giving that HC a year to make improvements, it will be squarely on Phil. So this one pick, if incorrect, immediately sets us back until 2010.

This choice is not hit a grand slam and win or strikeout and lose. We can win with a double in the gap. The QB's might be grand slams. Joe Thomas is a double. The QB's might be strikeouts. Joe Thomas is still a double, and is very unlikely (IMO) to bust. Whoever the choice is, must make an impact on the future of the Browns. The quicker the impact can be made, the better.
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Unread postby yogi » Wed Apr 25, 2007 12:56 pm

This is all about the ability of our front office to be right. I really do not care what position they decide to take, just be right.


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Unread postby mattvan1 » Wed Apr 25, 2007 1:01 pm

Joe Thomas is a double

Good points, with which I agree 100%. I'm with you on the safest, least-amount-of-bust-potential. Where I will differ is the order of priority. Not to re-hash the cap discussion, I would opt, in this order, for AP, CJ, trade down if possible, then JT. As much as I see the need for skills and leadership at the QB position, I just think it's too much of a setback for this club to go through another 3 years of "he's the one!" "is he the one?" "guess he's not the one"
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Unread postby happybluebird » Wed Apr 25, 2007 6:50 pm

Pup,
I understand you wanting JT, but 3rd pick money??? I just don't see them taking him with the 3rd pick. Plus, it seems to me that you would want to sell some jerseys and other merchandise with someone picked that high up. Especially if Savage and co. feel that there are other Olineman that can get the job done later in the draft. I sure wouldn't cry if they picked him! I'm as tired of seeing my quarterbacks getting broken and beaten as the next Browns fan.

I think the whole Quinn deal is a smokescreen. I have to say that I'm not impressed with Brady, I've sure never seen anything that made me say "wow, I sure hope the Browns get that guy!" He might be good someday somewhere. And if we pick him I'll be praying everyday that he works out for us, because if he doesn't it is gonna really really hurt this team.

Calvin Johnson would just be used to try and trade down if he is still there at 3. Trading down would be ideal. Maybe Savage can pull it off, but I think it is more likely that we stay at 3 and pick AP. In fact I see it the same as someone else posted in another thread (sorry I forget the name!)

AP
Best available Olineman
Troy Smith (in the third I could see this, certainly no earlier)

Then there are all those other holes that we won't be able to plug...defensive line....cornerback...Lordy I'm tired of watching highlights for other teams where they are running over my Browns!
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