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Reading the tea leaves...

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Reading the tea leaves...

Unread postby yogi » Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:14 pm

Everytime I look at what Phil has done in the offseason and try to project what he is gonna do come April 28th, I come up with the same answer...

We're getting a QB.

The only way it doesn't add up to drafting a new QB, is if Phil has 100% confidence in Charlie becoming a better than average QB.
Do you think he does?

If he thought Charlie could still be the answer but would let DA fight it out with him, don't you think he'd bring in another QB that is not looking to retire in the next 2 years? Someone like Carr? or Harrington? Maybe Carr or Harrington will never live up to their draft status, but with us, they no longer need to. They'll only have to perform slightly better that Dilfer did when he was here. That's reasonable and they could certainly do that.
So, why not bring one in and make it a 3 way race. Why hasn't he?

OK, now he's looking at Trent Green. Why? He's an older vet that would play 1 or 2 years and then what? This means that Frye goes back on the bench?

No.

If he signs Green, look for Russell or Quinn to be the pick. Green starts 2008 and takes a backseat IF Jamarcus or Brady is ready (Brady yes, JR maybe sits a 2nd year). Frye is shipped out on the next boat. DA is backup with the rook QB#3.

We'll follow the plan the Bungles had for Palmer.

AND we'll get a RB in the 1st round next year.

That's the way I see it.
Last edited by yogi on Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby pup » Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:29 pm

Someone like Carr? Harrington? Maybe Carr or Harrington will never live up to their draft status, but with us, they no longer need to. They'll only have to perform slightle better that Dilfer did when he was here. They could do that.


And still could. Both are available at this point, and the Browns like most teams are going to hold off until after the draft to see how it plays out.

I guess Phil ranks the available QB's as:

1. JMR
2. Carr
3. Green
4. Quinn
5. Harrington

If Russell falls to us, then he will take him. If he goes 1 or 2, then Phil will have to make his final decision and know who he will be able to sign or trade for instantly. If Quinn is gone as well, then we won't have any type of answer until the days after the draft.

They will add a QB by the ealry part of May. Which one? No clue.
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Unread postby consigliere » Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:36 pm

Yogi, I am in complete agreement with your take.

It is going to be Russell or Quinn. Book it.
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Unread postby pup » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:09 pm

I don't see any way this team "trades-up", so one will ahve to fall. When the owner comes out and says you have 17 out of 35 core players, how do you see them giving away oppurtunities to add to that?
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Unread postby furls » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:28 pm

exactly pup, and moving up one spot will surely cost them a second or a third, and although it hasnt been true around here lately, 2nd and 3rd round picks are supposed to be core guys.
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Unread postby Birdieman » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:29 pm

Agree Yogi. And I think Phil would be thrilled with either Russell or Quinn which is why he'll get one if he sits tight. CJ will certainly go in the first 2 picks.

Not only is Charlie not gonna start for us, I don't think he even makes the roster. Chud wants a stronger arm and I think he let Phil know it, so Phil started shopping Frye around the league. And finding out last year's starter has no value couldn't have been much fun, so Frye goes for a bucket of wings to somebody.

DA may start on Day One, but only to placehold for JR or BQ. I don't see Green coming to CLE at this point in his career, nor do I see Phil really wanting him badly. That's all just a due diligence kinda thing if Quinn or Russell somehow were to go 1-2 on APR 28th.
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Unread postby yogi » Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:01 pm

I'll go one step further on this.

If Oakland takes Jamarcus at #1, Phil sits at 3 and takes Quinn OR if CJ is there he plays Tampa against Minny & Atlanta (plus da Bears if they trade w/ Wash) and trades down and still gets Brady. If someone surprises him and nabs Brady, Phil will shrug his shoulders look at his extra picks and pick AD.

If Oakland takes CJ, I'm betting Phil will trade UP for Russell. He'll give a 2nd rounder this year and a 3rd next to Detroit. It'll be deja vu all over again (hey, a yogism!) for us Browns fans as Millen again appears to fleece us.

But Phil won't care, he gets his stud!

I don't agree with this, but I just get the feeling that Phil will move up to #2 for his guy. He won't move up though to #1 and give up next year's 1st rounder.

God I hope Oakland takes Russell!
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Unread postby swede » Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:20 pm

f Oakland takes Jamarcus at #1, Phil sits at 3 and takes Quinn OR if CJ is there he plays Tampa against Minny & Atlanta (plus da Bears if they trade w/ Wash) and trades down and still gets Brady. If someone surprises him and nabs Brady, Phil will shrug his shoulders look at his extra picks and pick AD.
I believe this too. 100%.

If Oakland takes CJ, I'm betting Phil will trade UP for Russell. He'll give a 2nd rounder this year and a 3rd next to Detroit. It'll be deja vu all over again (hey, a yogism!) for us Browns fans as Millen again appears to fleece us.

I have my doubts about this, but if it does happen, I hope I can trust that Phil made the right call. How much does he really love his draft-picks ? Is willing to give up a second-rounder ?

There is something abour Russell that just scares the shit out of me. I started watching the LSU-Tennesee game yesterday, and there are some Frye-ish moments there that just makes you wahhhhhhht ?

Another thing that hasn´t really been answered is that everyone assumes that just because Savage knows JMR from waaaaaaaay back, is that Savage will pick him if he´s available. Could be the opposite.
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Unread postby Birdieman » Fri Mar 30, 2007 8:44 pm

If Oakland takes CJ, I'm betting Phil will trade UP for Russell. He'll give a 2nd rounder this year and a 3rd next to Detroit.


Nah, I don't think so. We have too many other needs and I think Phil will be happy to get Quinn. I'd hate to see him give up high picks when we have such desparate needs at CB and RT.
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Unread postby jb » Sat Mar 31, 2007 11:16 am

It seems more and more than Frye is toast.

I don't think there's a whole lot of analysis that can or should go into Phil's ranging man love of JMR. I have this wierd sense that he will move heaven and earth to make this deal on the level of what was given up to get Leaf and Sucky Manning (not god Manning).

I also get the sense that Phil is in no way on death watch in Randy's eyes. Lerner seems to believe patience is the answer and really projects the "buck stops here" belief in his interviews. That means Phil has time to develop a QB.

IOW, I think yogi is right. It's gonna be a QB. But I think Phil is gonna move the farm to get JMR and that's why he looked to fill so many holes in FA.
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Unread postby Dozen » Sat Mar 31, 2007 11:57 am

Consigliere wrote:Yogi, I am in complete agreement with your take.

It is going to be Russell or Quinn. Book it.


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Unread postby furls » Sat Mar 31, 2007 11:58 am

But I think Phil is gonna move the farm to get JMR and that's why he looked to fill so many holes in FA.


This team has so many holes that any signing Phil made in FA would have filled one. If Savage sells out for Russell I cannot help but think it would be a disaster. Not that Russell is not a good prospect, it is just that the cost of this move would be ridiculous.

Could you imagine how Al Davis and the Raiders could come out of this (hell or Matt Millen)? If they were willing to trade down 2X they could get the world.

According to the draft pick value chart
http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/pick_value_chart.htm
The Browns would have to give up their 2nd and 3rd round pick to move from 3 to 1. Is J-Mark really worth that? especially to a team with "17 of 35 core guys?" I doubt it, particularly if Quinn is going to be available at 3.

Think about this, if you are the Raiders....

If the Browns were stupid enough to trade up for Russell, the Raiders would have Picks 3, 33, 36, 65, 67, 99.

Now the Raiders could turn around and trade that 3rd pick to the Falcons, Vikings, etc. if CJ is still on the board and potentially get another second and third out of it. This would give the Raiders picks 7/8, 33, 36, 39/41, 65, 67, 71/75, 99.

Could you imagine the difference the Raiders (with savvy drafting, something they are not good at) could make this year with 7 picks in the first 3 rounds? All of a sudden the future for the Raiders would get much brighter, they would be young and stupid next year, but within one year they should be able establish a core based on this draft (much like the Cowboys did after the Walker trade).

Personally, I love the Browns position right now, at 3. If, as Swerb predicts the quarterbacks go 1-2, then the Browns are perfectly poised to cash in BIG TIME on CJ. If someone jumps to get CJ, well then the Browns get the franchise QB they need. Right now, I would expect that there will still be UFA quarterbacks available until after the draft, guys like Green etc, so if the Browns miss out on Quinn or J-Mark, they can still get someone who probably does not suck as bad as Frye.
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Unread postby jb » Sat Mar 31, 2007 12:16 pm

Furls, I dunno what to THINK about the reality of JMR. I'm just doin the tea leaves thing and I do believe Phil really wants him to t7he point he may do something irrational that he otherwise might not do.

I'm in a love / hate mode w/ the whole JMR thing.

One one hand, I think draft choices are overrated, even day ones outside of round one. So many of these guys don't do shit, epcecially for the Browns. If you could get a healthy, better version of Daunte Culpepper when he was throwing for 4K a season n exchange for say, Braylan Edwards, Brotney Poole and Charlie Frye, would you the least bit upset?

OTOH, I don't know if JMR is "that guy". Personally, I don't think he is. But I always fall back to the point that I'm a ham and egger fan. It's Phil's job to know if he is "that guy" or not.

If they do something stupid to move up, I will have my doubts, but I'm tellin' yah now, I'm gonna choose to drink the Kool Aid and believe/hope for the best.

Besides, if JMR sucks at QB we can convert him to OLT. :lol:
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Unread postby furls » Sat Mar 31, 2007 1:01 pm

Braylan Edwards, Brotney Poole and Charlie Frye, would you the least bit upset?


If we could trick a team to move up for those guys that would be impressive. I am not sure that Braylon is worth anything (his attitude and butterfingers undermine any promise he has) and Charlie Frye? I think we could've gotten a 5th rounder for him last year, this year I am not so sure.

One one hand, I think draft choices are overrated, even day ones outside of round one.


That above all other things is the problem with the Browns, they have had a horrible conversion rate with 2nd and 3rd round picks. 2nd and 3rd round picks are supposed to be the foundation of your team, you get the big playmakers in round 1, but rounds 2-4 is where the bulk of your starters should come from. Teams like NE, and Indy that are perpetually good have done well in rounds 2-4. Teams that perpetually suck, like the Browns fail miserably outside of the first round (in general) and that leads us to our current state, where we have 17 of 35 core guys.
I like the idea of converting JMR to LT. In all seriousness, I bet he is pushing 280 or so by the beginning of camp going into his second season. I think he will eat his way out of the league.
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Unread postby jb » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:04 pm

Furls wrote:
Braylan Edwards, Brotney Poole and Charlie Frye, would you the least bit upset?


If we could trick a team to move up for those guys that would be impressive. I am not sure that Braylon is worth anything (his attitude and butterfingers undermine any promise he has) and Charlie Frye? I think we could've gotten a 5th rounder for him last year, this year I am not so sure.

One one hand, I think draft choices are overrated, even day ones outside of round one.


That above all other things is the problem with the Browns, they have had a horrible conversion rate with 2nd and 3rd round picks. 2nd and 3rd round picks are supposed to be the foundation of your team, you get the big playmakers in round 1, but rounds 2-4 is where the bulk of your starters should come from. Teams like NE, and Indy that are perpetually good have done well in rounds 2-4. Teams that perpetually suck, like the Browns fail miserably outside of the first round (in general) and that leads us to our current state, where we have 17 of 35 core guys.
I like the idea of converting JMR to LT. In all seriousness, I bet he is pushing 280 or so by the beginning of camp going into his second season. I think he will eat his way out of the league.


Just to be clear on the take, I'm not sayin' those 3 players per se. Those 3 players represented Phil's work the last time we had this identical slot.

How they workin' out for us relative to a fanchise QB?
What I meant was our 1st, our 2nd, and a 3rd wouln't necesarily be a disaster to part with to get a franchise QB.

It is all about the oaks, not the acorns.

Concur that JMR has the highest "bustability" factor of any QB i've seen slotted this high since Ass-kili.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:09 pm

Well, I am not sure that I would give up Poole, Frye, and Edwards for Alex Smith.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Mar 31, 2007 2:26 pm

It is pretty interesting actually, this thread has inspired me to go back through some recent drafts to see what kind of success 2nd - 4th rounders have in the NFL. There are a lot of guys, guys who have been a big deal this off season that were later round picks. What is also interesting is that most of these guys are going to good teams, teams that not coincidentally, are good because they draft well in rounds 2-4.

It was pretty depressing to look at what the Browns were getting (in all rounds actually) in rounds 2-4 compared to the patriots, colts, and chargers.
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Russell

Unread postby rawdawgexpress » Sat Mar 31, 2007 3:13 pm

I disagree that Savage will trade up. He loves draft picks and believes that's how you build a team. He's said that on more than one occasion. And he himself is billed as a "draft guru". That seems to be what he enjoys. Why then would he trade all his picks? That's really his chance to "shine". Otherwise why would Lerner the Usurer keep him around?

But re: Russell- If he projects to Culpepper then you pass. If he projects to McNabb- then you take, and consider giving a 3rd rounder, no more.
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Unread postby jfiling » Sat Mar 31, 2007 5:00 pm

Birdieman wrote:
If Oakland takes CJ, I'm betting Phil will trade UP for Russell. He'll give a 2nd rounder this year and a 3rd next to Detroit.


Nah, I don't think so. We have too many other needs and I think Phil will be happy to get Quinn. I'd hate to see him give up high picks when we have such desparate needs at CB and RT.


I completely agree. Considering the physically similarities between Trent Green and Brady Quinn, if Oakland drafted CJ and Detroit drafted JMR Quinn would be a perfect pick, assuming we pulled of the trade with KC for Green. Green playing/mentoring Quinn would be a far better fit that Dilfer playing/mentoring Frye was (two completely different QBs), which would be perfects for Quinn's development. I'm not hanging on Quinn's jock, but I do like the possibility of Green and Quinn on this team next year.
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Re: Russell

Unread postby jb » Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:25 am

rawdawgexpress wrote:I disagree that Savage will trade up. He loves draft picks and believes that's how you build a team. He's said that on more than one occasion. And he himself is billed as a "draft guru". That seems to be what he enjoys. Why then would he trade all his picks? That's really his chance to "shine". Otherwise why would Lerner the Usurer keep him around?


Yep. That's the conventional logic and that's what makes sense. I can't disagree. This is all a pure Butch Davis gut feel that Phil is in man love with JMR.
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Unread postby jb » Sun Apr 01, 2007 8:37 am

Furls wrote:Well, I am not sure that I would give up Poole, Frye, and Edwards for Alex Smith.


Good point Furls. That's why I disagree that the draft isn't anything but a crap shoot unless you fail to make an educated guess. (Calling Mr HooDoo, white courtesy phone)

I guess I'd reply that I don't see JMR as a Smith. I saw Smith as having a mighty low ceiling and see JMR as a huge boom - bust pick. But that would negate my own take that it's what NFL GM's say and not I.

Even still, I may make that deal based on my opinions of those 3 players, but as we were discussing, that's not really the point.

Hey, there's no doubt that GOOD teams hit on draft picks and that's why they are good. It's sorta that self-fulfilling profecy thing.

Here's links to the whole of rounds 2, 3 and 4 for those who wanna check it out:

http://www.drafthistory.com/rounds/round_2.html

http://www.drafthistory.com/rounds/round_3.html

http://www.drafthistory.com/rounds/round_4.html

http://www.drafthistory.com/rounds.html

BTW - This is the best site ever for draft 411.
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