2007 Draft: Troy Smith not 1st rounder?

[GreatGoo]

I had a conversations with one of my friends this weekend about the 2007 NFL draft and how the Browns need to keep losing to get Troy Smith early in the draft. My friend said he isn't even a first rounder and i was shocked! Below are some mock drafts I found on the web.

http://www.nfldraftblitz.com/mock_draft.htm

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/sub/mockdraft.html

http://www.draftking.com/nfl/2007/mockdraft.shtml

I understand that he is undersized but how can he not be a top 10 ten pick let alone not even a 1st round pick? The guys will have won the national championship, heisman, while having a undefeated season and having some of the best stats in the country.

Its just hard to beleieve. And i'm not even a buckeye fan.

[The Score]

I love the Buckeyes.

I think he may be a late first round pick and most likely a second.

[furls]

Vince Young was not very highly regarded until the NC game and he was drafted third. I personally think that Smith is a better quarterback, but of course I am biased.

Smith will do very well in the Combines. I suspect that he will be slower than people expect in the 40, but the guy is extremely accurate and intelligent. He will interview VERY well and will impress the OCs and HCs with his game knowledge. He will move up the board very quickly and ultimately, I think he will be the second QB drafted. My guess right now would be between 7 and 15 depending on who picks where.

[gdbenz]

This is a conversation that has picked up steam in the last few weeks and I've heard the same things that most here have heard as well, particularly that Smith is more of a second or third round pick than a first round. The popular thought is that, at 6'1", Smith is undersized. To that I ask, "who says?"

If you take a look at the size of all the quarterbacks who have played in the NFL (available on pro-football-reference.com) you'll see a recurring statistic: 6'2". It's rather remarkable, actually, how many quarterbacks were that height e.g. Gary Danielson, Jake Delhomme; Joe Namath; Sammy Baugh, to name a few. Two quarterbacks of note that were also 6'1": John Brodie and, more recently, Drew Brees. There are plenty of successful quarterbacks who were 6'3", including Dan Fouts, Terry Bradshaw and Ken Stabler. But on the other side of it, Fran Tarkenton, at 6'0" was a pretty fair quarterback, as was Sonny Jurgensen at 5'11".

The point, I think, is that Smith is hardly undersized. He's rather typical actually. I recognize that the more recent trend is toward taller quarterbacks, like Ben Roethlisberger at 6'5", Tom Brady and Matt Hasselback, both at 6'4", but the truth is that extremely successful quarterbacks come in all sizes.

By virtually every statistic imaginable, Troy Smith has it over Vince Young, except, of course, in height.

Teams can go ahead and talk themselves out of choosing a winner if they must. The last time I recall this kind of conversation, it involved another supposedly undersized player, linebacker Chris Spielman, who was 6'0". He was passed over repeatedly in the draft due to his size as teams ignored his heart and his desire. Spielman became an extremely successful linebacker with a 9-year career (long by typical NFL standards) but still cut short due to injury. Teams will likewise talk themselves out of Troy Smith. In the end, they'll be the ones that are sorry.

[The Score]

This is a conversation that has picked up steam in the last few weeks and I've heard the same things that most here have heard as well, particularly that Smith is more of a second or third round pick than a first round. The popular thought is that, at 6'1", Smith is undersized. To that I ask, "who says?"

If you take a look at the size of all the quarterbacks who have played in the NFL (available on pro-football-reference.com) you'll see a recurring statistic: 6'2". It's rather remarkable, actually, how many quarterbacks were that height e.g. Gary Danielson, Jake Delhomme; Joe Namath; Sammy Baugh, to name a few. Two quarterbacks of note that were also 6'1": John Brodie and, more recently, Drew Brees. There are plenty of successful quarterbacks who were 6'3", including Dan Fouts, Terry Bradshaw and Ken Stabler. But on the other side of it, Fran Tarkenton, at 6'0" was a pretty fair quarterback, as was Sonny Jurgensen at 5'11".

The point, I think, is that Smith is hardly undersized. He's rather typical actually. I recognize that the more recent trend is toward taller quarterbacks, like Ben Roethlisberger at 6'5", Tom Brady and Matt Hasselback, both at 6'4", but the truth is that extremely successful quarterbacks come in all sizes.

By virtually every statistic imaginable, Troy Smith has it over Vince Young, except, of course, in height.

Teams can go ahead and talk themselves out of choosing a winner if they must. The last time I recall this kind of conversation, it involved another supposedly undersized player, linebacker Chris Spielman, who was 6'0". He was passed over repeatedly in the draft due to his size as teams ignored his heart and his desire. Spielman became an extremely successful linebacker with a 9-year career (long by typical NFL standards) but still cut short due to injury. Teams will likewise talk themselves out of Troy Smith. In the end, they'll be the ones that are sorry.

No offense, but using QBs from over 20 years ago just doesn't work for comparison. Offensive and Defensive lineman have exploded in size from when those guys played.

Keep it to guys like Drew Brees and Delhomme.

[gdbenz]

The point is that even today, you'll see that a good many quarterbacks still clock in at 6'2". There are more taller quarterbacks than in years past, but I'll bet if you did a study, the size of the quarterbacks has not kept pace with the increasing size of the defensive linemen. Throwing the ball successfully depends more on having passing lanes than it does on throwing over defensive linemen all the time. My overall point, though, is that it's not like Smith is significantly undersized at 6'1". Arguably he's not really undersized at all. Smith is a proven winner and the teams that pass on him will be sorry they did so.

[The Score]

The point is that even today, you'll see that a good many quarterbacks still clock in at 6'2". There are more taller quarterbacks than in years past, but I'll bet if you did a study, the size of the quarterbacks has not kept pace with the increasing size of the defensive linemen. Throwing the ball successfully depends more on having passing lanes than it does on throwing over defensive linemen all the time. My overall point, though, is that it's not like Smith is significantly undersized at 6'1". Arguably he's not really undersized at all. Smith is a proven winner and the teams that pass on him will be sorry they did so.

I don't necessarily disagree that Smith will be a good QB in the NFL, but the fact remains that he is small for a QB. He has had his fair share of balls batted at the line this year at tOSU. Also, this thread is about his draft position.

In the NFL there are 23 guys who have started this year that are 6'3 or taller.

There are 11 guys who have started that are 6-2:
Batch, Garrard, Plummer, Losman, McNair, McNabb, Favre, Kitna, Delhomme, Romo, and Warner. Out of those guys there are only 4 first round picks.

There are only 5 guys 6'1 or smaller that have started:
Seneca Wallace (5'11), Jeff Garcia (6'1), Brees (6'0), Grossman (6'1), and Vick (6'0) for 3 first round picks. [Brees is technically 2nd round, but he was the 32nd pick]

Smith has all world receivers, a very good line, and very good running backs. These things are going to count against him as will running a hybrid spread offense half of the time. You brought up Vince Young, well he is a physical specimen and that is why he was drafted so high. Troy Smith is not on his level.

Smith will be lucky to make it to the high middle of the first round. He will more likely go at the end of the first and most likely sometime in the 2nd.

[furls]

Smith will be lucky to make it to the high middle of the first round. He will more likely go at the end of the first and most likely sometime in the 2nd.

Want to bet that? Smith can make ALL the throws and has the intangibles. He is well schooled in reading defenses and will interview very well with NFL HCs. The interview portion of the combine has become one of the most important aspects for a QB.

I do not think that Troy will necessarily go in the top 10, but he will be gone by the 20th pick.

[The Score]

Smith will be lucky to make it to the high middle of the first round. He will more likely go at the end of the first and most likely sometime in the 2nd.

Want to bet that? Smith can make ALL the throws and has the intangibles. He is well schooled in reading defenses and will interview very well with NFL HCs. The interview portion of the combine has become one of the most important aspects for a QB.

I do not think that Troy will necessarily go in the top 10, but he will be gone by the 20th pick.

I'm not willing to bet on anything draft related yet because I am known to be not smart from time to time and there is still the rest of the season and FA to happen before the draft.

However, I think that if he doesn't go top 10 (which I don't think he will) then he is SOL until the end of the first.

The current middle teams are:
Carolina 6-5
Jacksonville 6-5
Cincinnati 6-5
NY Giants 6-5
NY Jets 6-5
Philadelphia 5-6
St. Louis 5-6
Miami 5-6
Minnesota 5-6
Atlanta 5-6
Buffalo 5-6
San Francisco 5-6

There aren't many possibilities to take a starting QB and not enough deep teams where they can draft a QB of the future and sit for a year or two. It's just part of being in the middle of the pack of the NFL.

If someone drafts smith to be a starter it will be in the top 10 and if a good team takes a QB to sit for a while (like a Jason Campbell) it will be in the 20s. QBs either go early top 12ish or not again until the 20s.

Obviously, things can change. A lot will happen between now and the draft.

[furls]

Actually, Minnesota is one of the teams that I had in mind.

Miami is another possibility out of that group.

In the top 10 teams there are a few teams that may be shopping for a QB:

1.) Detroit
2.) Tampa
3.) Oakland
4.) possibly Cleveland

obviously there are a lot of questions left unanswered, but there are also quite a few teams with immediate need in the QB position.

I put the Browns down as a possible because it is possible that the Brown's could end up back on the QB market. I think it would be retarded, but who knows. I hope they don't draft Troy (for his sake). Heard some interesting discussion today about the possibility of Savage losing his job in this mess too depending on what happens from here on out. I'll tell you what, if the Browns' performance this week is indicative of their plans for the season, Crennel's head will not be the only one to roll.

[The Score]

I could see Minnesota.

Tampa offered Simms a 2 year deal today. You think that is so they can groom a rookie?

Cleveland could be in the market. It would be dumb. They need too much and wouldn't be able to let any rookie QB sit for at least 1 year like they should.

If Lerner cleans house it would be stupid and embarrassing as a franchise. Also, it would probably influence quality guys away from wanting to be head coach, president, or GM in Cleveland.

[furls]

You think that is so they can groom a rookie?

Did not see that. I was of the impression that Chucky wanted Simms back like I want a kick in the nuts.

[The Score]

ESPN.com news services

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made a contract offer to quarterback Chris Simms that would keep him in Tampa for at least two more years, team sources told ESPN's Chris Mortensen on Monday night.

Simms is scheduled to become a free agent in March. It was uncertain whether the Bucs would make an effort to keep the quarterback, whose season ended Sept. 24 when he had his spleen removed after being injured in a loss to the Panthers.

Simms could not be reached for comment. Simms' agent, Tom Condon, said: "I don't comment on negotiations."

A Buccaneers source said the two-year offer was "substantial enough" to get Simms' attention and that the team is expecting a healthy dialogue with Simms before the end of the season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2678140

I guess they could just be trying to do it the right way and let a rookie qb sit. That would make some sense.

[gdbenz]

In almost every way but financial, it's probably better for a quarterback to go in the second or third round rather than the first. The pressure from the fans and the front office to step in immediately is far less. Certainly there are some who handled it well, like Roethlisberger and Marino, but they really are exceptions. The better model is the one Cincinnati followed with Carson Palmer. Whatever one thinks about the level of play in college, it is still well below that of the pros. The game is significantly faster because the players, top to bottom, are better as well as better coached. I firmly believe Troy Smith has the overall make-up to be successful in the pros, irrespective of draft position.

[yargs7]

Do you guys really put alot of stock in these mock drafts? Every single one of them seems to be different.

[SOBO]

Been gone for awhile with the whole coaching/working/wedding stuff keeping me MORE than busy the last couple of months but now I'm going to get back to a recent pet peeve of mine that I keep reading...



Troy Smith's draft status isn't based completely on height.

Has noone seemed to notice Troy has a big windup and a slight hitch in his throwing motion?

Or how about the fact OSU also doesn't run a prototype NFL system? They've spread it out like most college teams at this point.

Some, like myself, even question his NFL accuracy. Most of Smith's throws are fly or stick routes; which either you bomb it to the mega-talented Ginn or Gonzalez; or have guys wide open sitting in zone coverages. I want to see more of him making the timing throws in tight windows that is expected of NFL caliber QB's.

Even Smith's character could be in question because of his past and previous work ethic.

THEN you have the height issue, which like it or not; will detract some scouts. Just the way the draft works. There is more to Smith as an NFL QB prospect than just, "Well he's shorter than ideal."


Futhermore, Troy is nowhere near the prospect of Vince Young. Vince was more athletic, had better numbers, carried his team, and has just an amazing upside. He was certainly climbing up draft boards WAAAAAY before the National Championsip game. It just solidified Vince being a top 10 pick.

[jjgmyers]

Been gone for awhile with the whole coaching/working/wedding stuff keeping me MORE than busy the last couple of months but now I'm going to get back to a recent pet peeve of mine that I keep reading...



Troy Smith's draft status isn't based completely on height.

Has noone seemed to notice Troy has a big windup and a slight hitch in his throwing motion?

Or how about the fact OSU also doesn't run a prototype NFL system? They've spread it out like most college teams at this point.

Some, like myself, even question his NFL accuracy. Most of Smith's throws are fly or stick routes; which either you bomb it to the mega-talented Ginn or Gonzalez; or have guys wide open sitting in zone coverages. I want to see more of him making the timing throws in tight windows that is expected of NFL caliber QB's.

Even Smith's character could be in question because of his past and previous work ethic.

THEN you have the height issue, which like it or not; will detract some scouts. Just the way the draft works. There is more to Smith as an NFL QB prospect than just, "Well he's shorter than ideal."


Futhermore, Troy is nowhere near the prospect of Vince Young. Vince was more athletic, had better numbers, carried his team, and has just an amazing upside. He was certainly climbing up draft boards WAAAAAY before the National Championsip game. It just solidified Vince being a top 10 pick.

[jjgmyers]

I thinks it pretty safe to say Young has a "slight" hitch in his throwing motion.

Who's to say scouts know anything?

A few examples include: Tony Mandarich, Ryan Leaf, Blair Thomas, Peter Warrick, Ki-jana Carter, Andre Ware, David Klingler and of the different variety: Marques Colston, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck

Scouts are like weathermen ... They're wrong most of the time and still get to keep their jobs.

Troy Smith is a winner, who plays the "big" games with poise like no other college QB I can ever remember watching in my lifetime.

I hope teams pass on him just so he can say Eff you to all of them when he becomes a superstar at the next level.

Go BUCKEYES!!

EFF scUM

[furls]

Has noone seemed to notice Troy has a big windup and a slight hitch in his throwing motion?

Lots of guys have hitches, that is not a big deal or in Young's case totally screwed up Mechanics.

Or how about the fact OSU also doesn't run a prototype NFL system? They've spread it out like most college teams at this point.

There is no "prototypic" NFL offense, but what Smith has shown is the ability to run an offense from the I, single back three wide, four wide, and five wide. This is a lot more of a prototypic offense than what most college teams are actually doing right now, running an option pass offense or an option offense.

Some, like myself, even question his NFL accuracy. Most of Smith's throws are fly or stick routes;

Didnt eveyone question Leinert's accuracy last year?

which either you bomb it to the mega-talented Ginn or Gonzalez

Ginn is not mega talented. Mega fast yes, Megatalented, NO. He does not adjust well to an off target throw, every throw to him must hit him in the hands, his routes are SLOPPY and loose and he very rarely ends up exactly where he is supposed to.

Even Smith's character could be in question because of his past and previous work ethic.

Smith's work ethic has never EVER been a question. WHat has been a question in the past is his character, but he has been saying and doing all the things to lead one to believe that he has matured for about 2 years. WHat is particularly telling, is that his teammates absolutely worship him and would follow him to the gates of hell.

Futhermore, Troy is nowhere near the prospect of Vince Young. Vince was more athletic, had better numbers, carried his team, and has just an amazing upside. He was certainly climbing up draft boards WAAAAAY before the National Championsip game. It just solidified Vince being a top 10 pick.

Smith is athletic. Not as athletic as Young, but he is still a 4.5 40 guy. There is virtually no difference in Young vs. Smith's numbers. Smith completed 67% this year, Young completed 65%, Smith has 2500 yards passing this year, Young had 3000 (Smiths numbers will get much closer after his final bowl game), Smith has 30/5 int, vs young's 26/10 (in one fewer game) and their passer rating is nearly identical.

What Smith has shown is the ability to make great decisions and get the ball to the best receiver available for the play. He takes care of the ball better than ANY other college quarterback and that is one of the first things that an NFL team wants to see. Of Smith's five ints, four of them hit the hands of their intended receiver first.

The Smith vs. Young comparison is really only viable because they are both black and mobile. If you objectively look at his body of work, it more closely resembles Drew Brees with more leadership, efficiency, and game management. Young was much more of a roll of the dice because his passing skills were not as well developed as Smith.

[Eric]

Didn't Vince Young get one of the worst scores ever in that NFL intelligence test? Right next to Chris Gamble?

[swerb]

The Smith vs. Young comparison is really only viable because they are both black and mobile. If you objectively look at his body of work, it more closely resembles Drew Brees with more leadership, efficiency, and game management. Young was much more of a roll of the dice because his passing skills were not as well developed as Smith.

Rack that take.

Didn't Vince Young get one of the worst scores ever in that NFL intelligence test? Right next to Chris Gamble?

Yeah, IIRC he got a single digit score on the Wonderlich.

[furls]

couple of points just dawned on me too:

which either you bomb it to the mega-talented Ginn or Gonzalez; or have guys wide open sitting in zone coverages

.

Doesn't this kind of show the ability to read a defense/zone and hit the open man? Isn't that something that NFL teams are interested in?

which either you bomb it to the mega-talented Ginn or Gonzalez

Interestingly, Ginn and Gonzo account for only 50% of OSU's completions this year, 108/217. This is a common mistake of people who don't pay close attention, Smith spreads the ball out. Here are OSU's leading receivers:

Ted Ginn Jr. 59 781 13.2 58(TD) 9
Anthony Gonzalez 49 723 14.8 33 8
Brian Robiskie 29 383 13.2 39 5
Brian Hartline 16 243 15.2 32 2
Rory Nicol 13 151 11.6 38(TD) 3
Roy Hall 13 147 11.3 27 2
Antonio Pittman 13 116 8.9 30 0
Ray Small 8 68 8.5 36 1
Stan White Jr. 8 57 7.1 11 0

Toward the end of the season Robiskie, Hartline, and Nichol were every bit as important as Ginn and Gonzo. Smith finds the open man, and checks down often to his 3rd or 4th read, this is something that VY was never asked to do. His offense was look down at your receivers, if you see trouble run it.

[SOBO]

First of all, before we all get off on the wrong foot; I like Smith as a prospect. When I was able to get things done more often for the site, I was one of the first guys around the net who even had Smith in the late first round range. That said, it seems to me that every Buckeye fan wants to make it out like Smith is being knocked simply on height; which isn't true. He's a fine prospect, but not an infallible one.

I thinks it pretty safe to say Young has a "slight" hitch in his throwing motion.

Very safe to say, but Young's problems stemmed from release point. Smith's hitch is in his windup and delivery. It's very slow. Young might have come sidearm, but he snapped it off quickly. Smith has a very similar throwing motion to Byron Leftwich who many said would struggle and be erratic at the next level because of his windup delivery. While this doesn't hurt Smith now at the college level, it gives top notch NFL corners that possible split second they need to break up a pass at the next level.

Who's to say scouts know anything?

A few examples include: Tony Mandarich, Ryan Leaf, Blair Thomas, Peter Warrick, Ki-jana Carter, Andre Ware, David Klingler and of the different variety: Marques Colston, Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Matt Hasselbeck

Scouts are like weathermen ... They're wrong most of the time and still get to keep their jobs.

Not arguing with you one bit on this point, but to just overlook the fact that all these things matter to scouts is ludacris. All these little things that I have mentioned do MATTER to scouts. Just because you don't like what I'm saying doesn't mean it gives Troy Smith a free pass to gloss over those things scouts could easily knock him down for. I'm not arguing whether or not he'll be a good pro at this point, I'm arguing why he isn't a top ten prospect right now. It's just the way the draft works. The system is flawed obviously, but it's the way it works.

There is no "prototypic" NFL offense, but what Smith has shown is the ability to run an offense from the I, single back three wide, four wide, and five wide. This is a lot more of a prototypic offense than what most college teams are actually doing right now, running an option pass offense or an option offense.

When I describe an "prototype" NFL offense, I look at things like timing routes, hot reads, accuracy in tight windows, all the NFL routes, etc etc. Most colleges at this point don't run up to snuff systems as compared to what they do at the next level. This comes into question with a lot of QB's. It's one of the reasons why Quinn is rated so highly, becuase he DOES come out of one of these systems. Which leads me to my next point....

Didnt eveyone question Leinert's accuracy last year?

No one questioned Leinart's accuracy. It was one of his greatest strengths. Why? Because he was coming out of one of those few programs who runs a pro-style system and was continually referred to as one of the best prepared QB prospects to EVER come out. Leinart was questioned because of his arm strength, not his accuracy.

Ginn is not mega talented. Mega fast yes, Megatalented, NO. He does not adjust well to an off target throw, every throw to him must hit him in the hands, his routes are SLOPPY and loose and he very rarely ends up exactly where he is supposed to.

I don't know about you, but when a player is considered a top 10 prospect (which Ginn is at this point), then he's megatalented. Not to mention that if Gonzalez declared, he'd be a likely first rounder as well.

Smith's work ethic has never EVER been a question. WHat has been a question in the past is his character, but he has been saying and doing all the things to lead one to believe that he has matured for about 2 years. WHat is particularly telling, is that his teammates absolutely worship him and would follow him to the gates of hell.

Study habits and proper film work isn't a part of a player's work ethic? Up until late last year when Teddy Ginn Sr. jumped his ass, these two things just mentioned were very much in question.

I have no doubt he matured, but again it's a point that scouts who dig deep enough in his past (these guys question their high school coaches for Christ sakes) will put a little red flag up. Not to mention Smith didn't do the mature thing two weekends ago when he decided to skip out on an award luncheon when he was honored as the Bucks top player.

Smith is athletic. Not as athletic as Young, but he is still a 4.5 40 guy. There is virtually no difference in Young vs. Smith's numbers.

So Young put up bigger passing yardage numbers, MUCH larger rushing numbers, more total TD's, and there is "virtually no difference"??!!

The Smith vs. Young comparison is really only viable because they are both black and mobile. If you objectively look at his body of work, it more closely resembles Drew Brees with more leadership, efficiency, and game management.

I'm not the one who compared him to Young in the first place, hence why I was arguing it. Second of all, I made the same comparison between Smith/Brees months ago. So on that we can agree. But when it was all said and done Brees was still an early second rounder. So a Drew Brees with more leadership, efficiency, and game managment really wouldn't go all that much higher don't you think?

Young was much more of a roll of the dice because his passing skills were not as well developed as Smith

Bingo. You just described why Young was a better prospect and will have gone much higher in the draft when it's all said and done. So as we have established Young had better numbers, is a better athlete, every bit the leader of Smith; and YET had a much higher upside.

[furls]

Young had better numbers, is a better athlete, every bit the leader of Smith; and YET had a much higher upside.

Youngs numbers are not substantially better, I thought I pretty clearly demonstrated that. Young ran for more yards, but again, that does not fall into your "proto typic" NFL offense. Which is it, is there a proto typic offense or not?

When I describe an "prototype" NFL offense, I look at things like timing routes, hot reads, accuracy in tight windows, all the NFL routes, etc etc.

Wouldn't hitting open receivers sitting in zones (as you described it) be considered making reads? Wouldn't hitting changing the play at the line to hit Ted Ginn down field in single coverage as a result of an incoming blitz be considered a "hot read"?

Isn't the deep out (across the hashes) considered the hardest pass to throw in football? I clearly recall watching him complete that pass against Thorpe Finalist (and soon to be early first rounder) Aaron Ross.

No one questioned Leinart's accuracy.

They sure did. They called him "college accurate" and said that he had a tendency to throw the deep ball to the inside shoulder which would result in picks and break ups in the NFL. (Mel Kiper and Jaworski)

I don't know about you, but when a player is considered a top 10 prospect (which Ginn is at this point), then he's megatalented.

Megatalented athlete, not receiver. Watch his routes, look at how limited they are and how poorly run they are. He will be drafted early because teams love 40 times and he will run an insane one.

So Young put up bigger passing yardage numbers, MUCH larger rushing numbers, more total TD's, and there is "virtually no difference"??!!

Do you watch the Buckeyes play or do you just read the stats? Once the Buckeyes go up by a couple of scores in the second half the offense gets "a bit" conservative. This is in stark contrast to Mack Brown who did not replace Young in the Big 12 championship game last year until it was 56-3 or until it was 48-0 against Baylor and so on. I am sure that if the Buckeyes were still throwing deep (Young's finally pass in the 62-0 nothing shellacking of Baylor was a 55 yard TD bomb) Smith's numbers could be gaudy.

So a Drew Brees with more leadership, efficiency, and game managment really wouldn't go all that much higher don't you think?

Drew Brees with VY intangibles goes much higher. Matter of fact, you could look at Smith as a VY (smaller and slower) with Drew Brees passing skills. What is important with Smith is that he is still fast enough to be mobil, continues to look downfield while scrambling, and can throw very accurately on the run.

If you are right and he goes late in the first, he will make someone very happy there, he will be a value pick. I personally think that with a good championship game, Smith will be the second QB taken overall in a year that is not particularly good for QBs. Quinn will be the unquestioned #1, but beyond him, there are no other QBs worth considering in the first round aside from maybe Jamarcus Russell.

Bingo. You just described why Young was a better prospect and will have gone much higher in the draft when it's all said and done. So as we have established Young had better numbers, is a better athlete, every bit the leader of Smith; and YET had a much higher upside.

I am not sure we established any of the preceding. First of all Young is a better PROSPECT. He has the potential to have a very high ceiling, unfortunately, due to his lack of refinement as a quarterback, his relative inexperience reading defenses, and his pass option offense in Texas he was a much greater risk. The best analogy I could come up with to express my feelings is VY is like the high school senior with the 98MPH fastball and some control issues, Smith is the college senior with the 93MPH fastball and good control. Young had the higher ceiling coming out of college, but Smith has less risk.

To put it in simplified mathematical terms:

Expected Valuation= (probability of occurance)*(reward).

While Young's "reward" could be higher, his "probability of occurance" is lower. This is not to say that I think that Smith is going to be a better pro, per se, this is to say that I think coming out of college there is a lot less bust risk out of Smith than Young.

[SOBO]

I realize early in this argument we're just going to keep going round and round without every accomplishing anything.

Soooooooooooo, I got a quick prospect critique from Tony Pauline. I respect the man's opinion, and afterall he DOES get paid to scout professionally. Plus he doesn't have any Ohio bias to cloud any possible judgement.

His response as to where and why Troy is ranked currently...

Early second round pick....

1- he's short...
2- he's only had one really top year of making consistently good decisions at
quarterback...
3- his pass placement is solid, not special...
4- while he seems to have matured there are concerns about his character and past issues...